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1.
Crit Care ; 25(1): 328, 2021 09 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34496940

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the SARS-Cov2 virus has become the greatest health and controversial issue for worldwide nations. It is associated with different clinical manifestations and a high mortality rate. Predicting mortality and identifying outcome predictors are crucial for COVID patients who are critically ill. Multivariate and machine learning methods may be used for developing prediction models and reduce the complexity of clinical phenotypes. METHODS: Multivariate predictive analysis was applied to 108 out of 250 clinical features, comorbidities, and blood markers captured at the admission time from a hospitalized cohort of patients (N = 250) with COVID-19. Inspired modification of partial least square (SIMPLS)-based model was developed to predict hospital mortality. Prediction accuracy was randomly assigned to training and validation sets. Predictive partition analysis was performed to obtain cutting value for either continuous or categorical variables. Latent class analysis (LCA) was carried to cluster the patients with COVID-19 to identify low- and high-risk patients. Principal component analysis and LCA were used to find a subgroup of survivors that tends to die. RESULTS: SIMPLS-based model was able to predict hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 with moderate predictive power (Q2 = 0.24) and high accuracy (AUC > 0.85) through separating non-survivors from survivors developed using training and validation sets. This model was obtained by the 18 clinical and comorbidities predictors and 3 blood biochemical markers. Coronary artery disease, diabetes, Altered Mental Status, age > 65, and dementia were the topmost differentiating mortality predictors. CRP, prothrombin, and lactate were the most differentiating biochemical markers in the mortality prediction model. Clustering analysis identified high- and low-risk patients among COVID-19 survivors. CONCLUSIONS: An accurate COVID-19 mortality prediction model among hospitalized patients based on the clinical features and comorbidities may play a beneficial role in the clinical setting to better management of patients with COVID-19. The current study revealed the application of machine-learning-based approaches to predict hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19 and identification of most important predictors from clinical, comorbidities and blood biochemical variables as well as recognizing high- and low-risk COVID-19 survivors.


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Aprendizado de Máquina/normas , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Prognóstico , Respiração Artificial/estatística & dados numéricos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Fatores de Risco
2.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(9): e2123374, 2021 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34468756

RESUMO

Importance: In the absence of a national strategy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many public health decisions fell to local elected officials and agencies. Outcomes of such policies depend on a complex combination of local epidemic conditions and demographic features as well as the intensity and timing of such policies and are therefore unclear. Objective: To use a decision analytical model of the COVID-19 epidemic to investigate potential outcomes if actual policies enacted in March 2020 (during the first wave of the epidemic) in the St Louis region of Missouri had been delayed. Design, Setting, and Participants: A previously developed, publicly available, open-source modeling platform (Local Epidemic Modeling for Management & Action, version 2.1) designed to enable localized COVID-19 epidemic projections was used. The compartmental epidemic model is programmed in R and Stan, uses bayesian inference, and accepts user-supplied demographic, epidemiologic, and policy inputs. Hospital census data for 1.3 million people from St Louis City and County from March 14, 2020, through July 15, 2020, were used to calibrate the model. Exposures: Hypothetical delays in actual social distancing policies (which began on March 13, 2020) by 1, 2, or 4 weeks. Sensitivity analyses were conducted that explored plausible spontaneous behavior change in the absence of social distancing policies. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations and deaths. Results: A model of 1.3 million residents of the greater St Louis, Missouri, area found an initial reproductive number (indicating transmissibility of an infectious agent) of 3.9 (95% credible interval [CrI], 3.1-4.5) in the St Louis region before March 15, 2020, which fell to 0.93 (95% CrI, 0.88-0.98) after social distancing policies were implemented between March 15 and March 21, 2020. By June 15, a 1-week delay in policies would have increased cumulative hospitalizations from an observed actual number of 2246 hospitalizations to 8005 hospitalizations (75% CrI: 3973-15 236 hospitalizations) and increased deaths from an observed actual number of 482 deaths to a projected 1304 deaths (75% CrI, 656-2428 deaths). By June 15, a 2-week delay would have yielded 3292 deaths (75% CrI, 2104-4905 deaths)-an additional 2810 deaths or a 583% increase beyond what was actually observed. Sensitivity analyses incorporating a range of spontaneous behavior changes did not avert severe epidemic projections. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this decision analytical model study suggest that, in the St Louis region, timely social distancing policies were associated with improved population health outcomes, and small delays may likely have led to a COVID-19 epidemic similar to the most heavily affected areas in the US. These findings indicate that an open-source modeling platform designed to accept user-supplied local and regional data may provide projections tailored to, and more relevant for, local settings.


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , Política de Saúde , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Distanciamento Físico , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Missouri , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2
3.
Tex Heart Inst J ; 48(3)2021 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34383956

RESUMO

Mitochondrial disease comprises a wide range of genetic disorders caused by mitochondrial dysfunction. Its rarity, however, has limited the ability to assess its effects on clinical outcomes. To evaluate this relationship, we collected data from the 2016 National Inpatient Sample, which includes data from >7 million hospital stays. We identified 705 patients (mean age, 22 ± 20.7 yr; 54.2% female; 67.4% white) whose records included the ICD-10-CM code E88.4. We also identified a propensity-matched cohort of 705 patients without mitochondrial disease to examine the effect of mitochondrial disease on major adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause in-hospital death, cardiac arrest, and acute congestive heart failure. Patients with mitochondrial disease were at significantly greater risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (odds ratio [OR]=2.42; 95% CI, 1.29-4.57; P=0.005), systolic heart failure (OR=2.37; 95% CI, 1.08-5.22; P=0.027), and all-cause in-hospital death (OR=14.22; 95% CI, 1.87-108.45; P<0.001). These findings suggest that mitochondrial disease significantly increases the risk of inpatient major adverse cardiovascular events.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Pacientes Internados , Doenças Mitocondriais/complicações , Pontuação de Propensão , Medição de Risco/métodos , Adulto , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Seguimentos , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Mitocondriais/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Estados Unidos , Adulto Jovem
4.
Tex Heart Inst J ; 48(3)2021 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34388239

RESUMO

We studied whether sustained hemodynamic support (>7 d) with the Impella 5.0 heart pump can be used as a bridge to clinical decisions in patients who present with cardiogenic shock, and whether such support can improve their outcomes. We retrospectively reviewed cases of patients who had Impella 5.0 support at our hospital from August 2017 through May 2019. Thirty-four patients (23 with cardiogenic shock and 11 with severely decompensated heart failure) underwent sustained support for a mean duration of 11.7 ± 9.3 days (range, ≤48 d). Of 29 patients (85.3%) who survived to next therapy, 15 were weaned from the Impella, 8 underwent durable left ventricular assist device placement, 4 were escalated to venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support, and 2 underwent heart transplantation. The 30-day survival rate was 76.5% (26 of 34 patients). Only 2 patients had a major adverse event: one each had an ischemic stroke and flail mitral leaflet. None of the devices malfunctioned. Sustained hemodynamic support with the Impella 5.0 not only improved outcomes in patients who presented with cardiogenic shock, but also provided time for multidisciplinary evaluation of potential cardiac recovery, or the need for durable left ventricular assist device implantation or heart transplantation. Our study shows the value of using the Impella 5.0 as a bridge to clinical decisions.


Assuntos
Insuficiência Cardíaca/terapia , Transplante de Coração , Coração Auxiliar , Hemodinâmica/fisiologia , Desenho de Equipamento , Oxigenação por Membrana Extracorpórea , Feminino , Seguimentos , Insuficiência Cardíaca/mortalidade , Insuficiência Cardíaca/fisiopatologia , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Resultado do Tratamento , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
5.
J Am Heart Assoc ; 10(16): e020255, 2021 08 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34387100

RESUMO

Background The acuity and magnitude of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in New York mandated a drastic change in healthcare access and delivery of care. Methods and Results We retrospectively studied patients admitted with an acute cardiovascular syndrome as their principal diagnosis to 13 hospitals across Northwell Health during March 11 through May 26, 2020 (first COVID-19 epidemic wave) and the same period in 2019. Three thousand sixteen patients (242 COVID-19 positive) were admitted for an acute cardiovascular syndrome during the first COVID-19 wave compared with 9422 patients 1 year prior (decrease of 68.0%, P<0.001). During this time, patients with cardiovascular disease presented later to the hospital (360 versus 120 minutes for acute myocardial infarction), underwent fewer procedures (34.6% versus 45.6%, P<0.001), were less likely to be treated in an intensive care unit setting (8.7% versus 10.8%, P<0.001), and had a longer hospital stay (2.91 [1.71-6.05] versus 2.87 [1.82-4.95] days, P=0.033). Inpatient cardiovascular mortality during the first epidemic outbreak increased by 111.1% (3.8 versus 1.8, P<0.001) and was not related to COVID-19-related admissions, all cause in-hospital mortality, or incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac deaths in New York. Admission during the first COVID-19 surge along with age and positive COVID-19 test independently predicted mortality for cardiovascular admissions (odds ratios, 1.30, 1.05, and 5.09, respectively, P<0.0001). Conclusions A lower rate and later presentation of patients with cardiovascular pathology, coupled with deviation from common clinical practice mandated by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, might have accounted for higher in-hospital cardiovascular mortality during that period.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização , Pacientes Internados , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/terapia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cidade de Nova Iorque/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto Jovem
6.
Mayo Clin Proc ; 96(8): 2058-2066, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34353467

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of pulmonary hypertension (PH) on percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) outcomes and 30-day all-cause readmissions by analyzing a national database. METHODS: We queried the 2014 National Readmissions Database to identify patients undergoing PCI using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes. These patients were then subcategorized based on the coded presence or absence of PH and further analyzed to determine the impact of PH on clinical outcomes, health care use, and 30-day readmissions. RESULTS: Among 599,490 patients hospitalized for a PCI in 2014, 19,348 (3.2%) had concomitant PH. At baseline, these patients were older with a higher burden of comorbidities. Patients with PH had longer initial hospitalizations and higher 30-day readmission rates and mortality than their non-PH counterparts. This was largely driven by cardiac causes, most commonly heart failure (20.3% vs 9.0%, P<.001) and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Recurrent coronary events (17.5% vs 9.5%, P<.05) including ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction predominated in the non-PH group. CONCLUSION: Patients with PH undergoing PCI are a high-risk group in terms of mortality and 30-day readmission rates. Percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with PH is associated with higher rates of recurrent heart failure and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, rather than recurrent coronary events or ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. This perhaps indicates a predominance of demand ischemia and heart failure syndromes rather than overt atherothrombosis in the etiology of chest pain in these patients.


Assuntos
Hipertensão Pulmonar/epidemiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio/cirurgia , Readmissão do Paciente/tendências , Medição de Risco/métodos , Idoso , Comorbidade , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea , Período Pós-Operatório , Fatores de Risco , Resultado do Tratamento , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
7.
Ann Med ; 53(1): 1410-1418, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34409900

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been assessed during COVID-19 patient hospitalization, however, further research should be done to evaluate RDW from routine community blood tests, before infection, as a risk factor for COVID-19 related hospitalization and mortality. PATIENTS AND METHODS: RDW was measured as a predictor along with age, sex, chronic illnesses, and BMI in logistic regressions to predict hospitalization and mortality. Hospitalization and mortality odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RDW was evaluated separately as continuous and discrete (High RDW ≥ 14.5) variables. RESULTS: Four thousand one hundred and sixty-eight patients were included in this study, where 824 patients (19.8%) had a high RDW value ≥14.5% (High RDW: 64.7% were female, mean age 58 years [±22] vs. Normal RDW: 60.2% female, mean age 46 years [±19]). Eight hundred and twenty-nine patients had a hospitalization, where the median time between positive PCR and hospital entry was 5 [IQR 1-18] days. Models were analyzed with RDW (continuous) and adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and BMI suggested an OR of 1.242 [95% CI = 1.187-2.688] for hospitalization and an OR of 2.911 [95% CI = 1.928-4.395] for mortality (p < .001). RDW (discrete) with the same adjustments presented an OR of 2.232 [95% CI = 1.853-1.300] for hospitalization and an OR of 1.263 [95% CI = 1.166-1.368] for mortality (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: High RDW values obtained from community blood tests are associated with greater odds of hospitalization and mortality for patients with COVID-19.KEY MESSAGESRDW measures before SARS-CoV-2 infection is a predictive factor for hospitalization and mortality.RDW threshold of 14.5% provides high sensitivity and specificity for COVID-19 related mortality, comparatively to other blood tests.Patient records should be accessed by clinicians for prior RDW results, if available, followed by further monitoring.


Assuntos
COVID-19/sangue , COVID-19/mortalidade , Contagem de Eritrócitos , SARS-CoV-2/metabolismo , Adulto , Idoso , Biomarcadores/sangue , Estudos de Coortes , Índices de Eritrócitos , Feminino , Testes Hematológicos , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco
8.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0255427, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34351975

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 frequently necessitates in-patient treatment and in-patient mortality is high. Less is known about the long-term outcomes in terms of mortality and readmissions following in-patient treatment. AIM: The aim of this paper is to provide a detailed account of hospitalized COVID-19 patients up to 180 days after their initial hospital admission. METHODS: An observational study with claims data from the German Local Health Care Funds of adult patients hospitalized in Germany between February 1 and April 30, 2020, with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 and a related principal diagnosis, for whom 6-month all-cause mortality and readmission rates for 180 days after admission or until death were available. A multivariable logistic regression model identified independent risk factors for 180-day all-cause mortality in this cohort. RESULTS: Of the 8,679 patients with a median age of 72 years, 2,161 (24.9%) died during the index hospitalization. The 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 23.9% (2,073/8,679), the 90-day rate was 27.9% (2,425/8,679), and the 180-day rate, 29.6% (2,566/8,679). The latter was 52.3% (1,472/2,817) for patients aged ≥80 years 23.6% (1,621/6,865) if not ventilated during index hospitalization, but 53.0% in case of those ventilated invasively (853/1,608). Risk factors for the 180-day all-cause mortality included coagulopathy, BMI ≥ 40, and age, while the female sex was a protective factor beyond a fewer prevalence of comorbidities. Of the 6,235 patients discharged alive, 1,668 were readmitted a total of 2,551 times within 180 days, resulting in an overall readmission rate of 26.8%. CONCLUSIONS: The 180-day follow-up data of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in a nationwide cohort representing almost one-third of the German population show significant long-term, all-cause mortality and readmission rates, especially among patients with coagulopathy, whereas women have a profoundly better and long-lasting clinical outcome compared to men.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , Readmissão do Paciente/tendências , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização/tendências , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Alta do Paciente/tendências , Readmissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Fatores de Tempo
9.
J Clin Endocrinol Metab ; 106(9): e3364-e3368, 2021 08 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34406396

RESUMO

CONTEXT: Diabetes is reported as a risk factor for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but whether this risk is similar in all categories of age remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized patients with and without diabetes according to age categories. DESIGN SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of 6314 consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between February and 30 June 2020 in the Paris metropolitan area, France; follow-up was recorded until 30 September 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The main outcome was a composite outcome of mortality and orotracheal intubation in subjects with diabetes compared with subjects without diabetes, after adjustment for confounding variables and according to age categories. RESULTS: Diabetes was recorded in 39% of subjects. Main outcome was higher in patients with diabetes, independently of confounding variables (hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [1.03-1.24]) and increased with age in individuals without diabetes, from 23% for those <50 to 35% for those >80 years but reached a plateau after 70 years in those with diabetes. In direct comparison between patients with and without diabetes, diabetes-associated risk was inversely proportional to age, highest in <50 years and similar after 70 years. Similarly, mortality was higher in patients with diabetes (26%) than in those without diabetes (22%, P < 0.001), but adjusted HR for diabetes was significant only in patients younger than age 50 years (HR 1.81 [1.14-2.87]). CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes should be considered as an independent risk factor for the severity of COVID-19 in young adults more so than in older adults, especially for individuals younger than 70 years.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/fisiopatologia , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , COVID-19/virologia , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco
10.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0254453, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34320004

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Limited therapeutic options exist for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) is a potential therapeutic, but there is limited data for patients with moderate-to-severe disease. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are outcomes associated with administration of CCP in patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 infection? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a propensity score-matched analysis of patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19. The primary endpoints were in-hospital mortality. Secondary endpoints were number of days alive and ventilator-free at 30 days; length of hospital stay; and change in WHO scores from CCP administration (or index date) to discharge. Of 151 patients who received CCP, 132 had complete follow-up data. Patients were transfused after a median of 6 hospital days; thus, we investigated the effect of convalescent plasma before and after this timepoint with 77 early (within 6 days) and 55 late (after 6 days) recipients. Among 3,217 inpatients who did not receive CCP, 2,551 were available for matching. RESULTS: Early CCP recipients, of whom 31 (40%) were on mechanical ventilation, had lower 14-day (15% vs 23%) and 30-day (38% vs 49%) mortality compared to a matched unexposed cohort, with nearly 50% lower likelihood of in-hospital mortality (HR 0.52, [95% CI 0.28-0.96]; P = 0.036). Early plasma recipients had more days alive and ventilator-free at 30 days (+3.3 days, [95% CI 0.2 to 6.3 days]; P = 0.04) and improved WHO scores at 7 days (-0.8, [95% CI: -1.2 to -0.4]; P = 0.0003) and hospital discharge (-0.9, [95% CI: -1.5 to -0.3]; P = 0.004) compared to the matched unexposed cohort. No clinical differences were observed in late plasma recipients. INTERPRETATION: Early administration of CCP improves outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19, while improvement was not observed with late CCP administration. The importance of timing of administration should be addressed in specifically designed trials.


Assuntos
COVID-19/terapia , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/metabolismo , Estudos de Coortes , Connecticut/epidemiologia , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Imunização Passiva/métodos , Pacientes Internados , Tempo de Internação/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pontuação de Propensão , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Resultado do Tratamento
11.
Crit Care Med ; 49(8): 1276-1284, 2021 08 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34261926

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Sepsis is a life-threatening condition and is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. The burden of sepsis-related mortality in the United States in recent years is not well characterized. We sought to describe sepsis-related mortality rates and mortality trends in the United States from 2005 to 2018. DESIGN: Retrospective population-based study. SETTING: We used the Multiple Cause of Death Database available through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website. PATIENTS: Decedents with sepsis-related deaths were identified using previously validated International Classification of Diseases codes. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: From 2005 to 2018, 6.7% of decedents had a diagnosis of sepsis. The overall sepsis-related mortality rates remained stable in both males (57 deaths per 100,000) and females (45.1 deaths per 100,000) during this period. Compared with Whites, the sepsis-related mortality rates were higher in Blacks (rate ratio = 1.78), Native Americans (rate ratio = 1.43), and Hispanics (rate ratio = 1.04) and were lower in Asians (rate ratio = 0.73). Sepsis-related mortality rates declined in Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians but increased in Whites and Native Americans. The majority of sepsis-related deaths occurred in the hospital. The percentage of deaths in the nursing home decreased, whereas deaths occurring at home and hospice increased. CONCLUSIONS: From 2005 to 2018, the overall sepsis-related mortality rates were stable, but there were significant racial and gender disparities in mortality trends. Further research is needed to evaluate the genetic and environmental contributors to these differences.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte/tendências , Grupos Étnicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Sepse/mortalidade , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Bases de Dados Factuais , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sepse/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
12.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis ; 30(9): 105985, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34284323

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 pandemic has forced important changes in health care worldwide. Stroke care networks have been affected, especially during peak periods. We assessed the impact of the pandemic and lockdowns in stroke admissions and care in Latin America. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A multinational study (7 countries, 18 centers) of patients admitted during the pandemic outbreak (March-June 2020). Comparisons were made with the same period in 2019. Numbers of cases, stroke etiology and severity, acute care and hospitalization outcomes were assessed. RESULTS: Most countries reported mild decreases in stroke admissions compared to the same period of 2019 (1187 vs. 1166, p = 0.03). Among stroke subtypes, there was a reduction in ischemic strokes (IS) admissions (78.3% vs. 73.9%, p = 0.01) compared with 2019, especially in IS with NIHSS 0-5 (50.1% vs. 44.9%, p = 0.03). A substantial increase in the proportion of stroke admissions beyond 48 h from symptoms onset was observed (13.8% vs. 20.5%, p < 0.001). Nevertheless, no differences in total reperfusion treatment rates were observed, with similar door-to-needle, door-to-CT, and door-to-groin times in both periods. Other stroke outcomes, as all-type mortality during hospitalization (4.9% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.001), length of stay (IQR 1-5 days vs. 0-9 days, p < 0.001), and likelihood to be discharged home (91.6% vs. 83.0%, p < 0.001), were compromised during COVID-19 lockdown period. CONCLUSIONS: In this Latin America survey, there was a mild decrease in admissions of IS during the COVID-19 lockdown period, with a significant delay in time to consultations and worse hospitalization outcomes.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Procedimentos Endovasculares/tendências , Hospitalização/tendências , Padrões de Prática Médica/tendências , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/terapia , Tempo para o Tratamento/tendências , COVID-19/transmissão , Causas de Morte/tendências , Procedimentos Endovasculares/efeitos adversos , Procedimentos Endovasculares/mortalidade , Feminino , Pesquisas sobre Serviços de Saúde , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , América Latina , Tempo de Internação/tendências , Masculino , Admissão do Paciente/tendências , Alta do Paciente/tendências , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/diagnóstico , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/mortalidade , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento
13.
Lancet Glob Health ; 9(9): e1216-e1225, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34252381

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa peaked in July, 2020, and a larger second wave peaked in January, 2021, in which the SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 (Beta) lineage predominated. We aimed to compare in-hospital mortality and other patient characteristics between the first and second waves. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, we analysed data from the DATCOV national active surveillance system for COVID-19 admissions to hospital from March 5, 2020, to March 27, 2021. The system contained data from all hospitals in South Africa that have admitted a patient with COVID-19. We used incidence risk for admission to hospital and determined cutoff dates to define five wave periods: pre-wave 1, wave 1, post-wave 1, wave 2, and post-wave 2. We compared the characteristics of patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital in wave 1 and wave 2, and risk factors for in-hospital mortality accounting for wave period using random-effect multivariable logistic regression. FINDINGS: Peak rates of COVID-19 cases, admissions, and in-hospital deaths in the second wave exceeded rates in the first wave: COVID-19 cases, 240·4 cases per 100 000 people vs 136·0 cases per 100 000 people; admissions, 27·9 admissions per 100 000 people vs 16·1 admissions per 100 000 people; deaths, 8·3 deaths per 100 000 people vs 3·6 deaths per 100 000 people. The weekly average growth rate in hospital admissions was 20% in wave 1 and 43% in wave 2 (ratio of growth rate in wave 2 compared with wave 1 was 1·19, 95% CI 1·18-1·20). Compared with the first wave, individuals admitted to hospital in the second wave were more likely to be age 40-64 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1·22, 95% CI 1·14-1·31), and older than 65 years (aOR 1·38, 1·25-1·52), compared with younger than 40 years; of Mixed race (aOR 1·21, 1·06-1·38) compared with White race; and admitted in the public sector (aOR 1·65, 1·41-1·92); and less likely to be Black (aOR 0·53, 0·47-0·60) and Indian (aOR 0·77, 0·66-0·91), compared with White; and have a comorbid condition (aOR 0·60, 0·55-0·67). For multivariable analysis, after adjusting for weekly COVID-19 hospital admissions, there was a 31% increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the second wave (aOR 1·31, 95% CI 1·28-1·35). In-hospital case-fatality risk increased from 17·7% in weeks of low admission (<3500 admissions) to 26·9% in weeks of very high admission (>8000 admissions; aOR 1·24, 1·17-1·32). INTERPRETATION: In South Africa, the second wave was associated with higher incidence of COVID-19, more rapid increase in admissions to hospital, and increased in-hospital mortality. Although some of the increased mortality can be explained by admissions in the second wave being more likely in older individuals, in the public sector, and by the increased health system pressure, a residual increase in mortality of patients admitted to hospital could be related to the new Beta lineage. FUNDING: DATCOV as a national surveillance system is funded by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the South African National Government.


Assuntos
COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/terapia , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de Risco , África do Sul/epidemiologia
14.
Swiss Med Wkly ; 151: w20572, 2021 07 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34324697

RESUMO

AIMS: The aim of this study was to analyse the demographics, risk factors and in-hospital mortality rates of patients admitted with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. METHODS: In this single-centre retrospective cohort study at the University Hospital Basel, we included all patients with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection hospitalised from 27 February 2020 to 10 May 2021. Patients’ characteristics were extracted from the electronic medical record system. The primary outcome of this study was temporal trends of COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes were COVID-19-related mortality in patients hospitalised on the intensive care unit (ICU), admission to ICU, renal replacement therapy and length of hospital stay, as well as a descriptive analysis of risk factors for in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: During the study period we included 943 hospitalisations of 930 patients. The median age was 65 years (interquartile range [IQR] 53–76) and 63% were men. The numbers of elderly patients, patients with multiple comorbidities and need for renal replacement therapy decreased from the first and second to the third wave. The median length of stay and need for ICU admission were similar in all waves. Throughout the study period 88 patients (9.3%) died during the hospital stay. Crude in-hospital mortality was similar over the course of the first two waves (9.5% and 10.2%, respectively), whereas it decreased in the third wave (5.4%). Overall mortality in patients without comorbidities was low at 1.6%, but it increased in patients with any comorbidity to 12.6%. Predictors of all-cause mortality over the whole period were age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] per 10-year increase 1.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45–2.26; p <0.001), male sex (aOR 1.68, 95% CI 1.00–2.82; p = 0.048), immunocompromising condition (aOR 2.09, 95% CI 1.01–4.33; p = 0.048) and chronic kidney disease (aOR 2.25, 95% CI 1.35–3.76; p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: In our study in-hospital mortality was 9.5%, 10.2% and 5.4% in the first, second and third waves, respectively. Age, immunocompromising condition, male sex and chronic kidney disease were factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Importantly, patients without any comorbidity had a very low in-hospital mortality regardless of age.


Assuntos
COVID-19/diagnóstico , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , SARS-CoV-2 , Idoso , COVID-19/mortalidade , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Feminino , Humanos , Nefropatias/epidemiologia , Nefropatias/terapia , Tempo de Internação , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Terapia de Substituição Renal/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Suíça/epidemiologia
15.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(27): e26494, 2021 Jul 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34232182

RESUMO

ABSTRACT: This retrospective study aimed to describe the association between the "ß-lactam allergy" labeling (BLAL) and the outcomes of a cohort of intensive care unit (ICU) patients.Retrospective cohort study.Seven ICU of the Aix Marseille University Hospitals from Marseille in France.We collected the uses of the label "ß-lactam allergy" in the electronic medical files of patients aged 18 years or more who required more than 48 hours in the ICU with mechanical ventilation and/or vasopressors admitted to 7 ICUs of a single institution.We retrospectively compared the patients with this labeling (BLAL group) with those without this labeling (control group).The primary outcome was the duration of ICU stay. Among the 7146 patients included in the analysis, 440 and 6706 patients were classified in the BLAL group and the control group, respectively. The prevalence of BLAL was 6.2%. In univariate and multivariate analyses, BLAL was weakly or not associated with the duration of ICU and hospital stays (respectively, 6 [3-14] vs 6 [3-14] days, standardized beta -0.09, P = .046; and 18 [10-29] vs 15 [8-28] days, standardized beta -0.09, P = .344). In multivariate analysis, the ICU and 28-day mortality rates were both lower in the BLAL group than in the control group (aOR 0.79 95% CI [0.64-0.98] P = .032 and 0.79 [0.63-0.99] P = .042). Antibiotic use differed between the 2 groups, but the outcomes were similar in the subgroups of septic patients in the BLAL group and the control group.In our cohort, the labeling of a ß-lactam allergy was not associated with prolonged ICU and hospital stays. An association was found between the labeling of a ß-lactam allergy and lower ICU and 28-day mortality rates.Trial registration: Retrospectively registered.


Assuntos
Cuidados Críticos/métodos , Hipersensibilidade/etiologia , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , beta-Lactamas/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Seguimentos , França/epidemiologia , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Hipersensibilidade/epidemiologia , Hipersensibilidade/terapia , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências
16.
J Glob Health ; 11: 05017, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34326998

RESUMO

Background: The antiviral therapy has been considered as an ordinary intervention for COVID-19 patients. However, the effectiveness of antiviral therapy is uncertain. This study was designed to determine the association between the antiviral therapy and in-hospital mortality among severe COVID-19 patients. Methods: This study enrolled severe COVID-19 patients admitted to four designated hospitals in Wuhan, China. The use of antiviral treatments, demographics, laboratory variables, co-morbidities, complications, and other treatments were compared between survival and fatal cases. The association between antiviral agents and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Results: In total, 109 severe COVID-19 patients (mean age 65.43) were enrolled for analysis, among which, 61 (56.0%) patients were discharged alive, and 48 (44.0%) died during hospitalization. We found no association between lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) treatment and the in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) = 0.195, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.023-1.679). Besides, ribavirin (OR = 0.738, 95% CI = 0.344-1.582), oseltamivir (OR = 0.765, 95% CI = 0.349-1.636), and interferon-alpha (IFN-α) (OR = 0.371, 95% CI = 0.112-1.236) were not associated with the in-hospital mortality. However, arbidol monotherapy (OR = 5.027, 95% CI = 1.795-14.074) or the combination of arbidol and oseltamivir (OR = 5.900, 95% CI = 1.190-29.247) was associated with an increased in-hospital mortality. In addition, the multiple logistic regression identified a significant association between the use of arbidol and the in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR = 4.195, 95% CI = 1.221-14.408). Conclusions: Our findings indicated that LPV/r, IFN-α, ribavirin, or oseltamivir have no beneficial effects on the prognosis of severe COVID-19 patients, whereas the use of arbidol is associated with increased in-hospital mortality.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Mortalidade Hospitalar , Indóis , Idoso , COVID-19/tratamento farmacológico , COVID-19/mortalidade , China/epidemiologia , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Indóis/efeitos adversos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença
18.
World J Emerg Surg ; 16(1): 39, 2021 07 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34281575

RESUMO

BACKGROUNDS: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically strained the health systems worldwide, obligating the reassessment of how healthcare is delivered. In Lombardia, Italy, a Regional Emergency Committee (REC) was established and the regional health system reorganized, with only three hospitals designated as hubs for trauma care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of this reorganization of regional care, comparing the distribution of patients before and during the COVID-19 outbreak and to describe changes in the epidemiology of severe trauma among the two periods. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using retrospectively collected data from the Regional Trauma Registry of Lombardia (LTR). We compared the data of trauma patients admitted to three hub hospitals before the COVID-19 outbreak (September 1 to November 19, 2019) with those recorded during the pandemic (February 21 to May 10, 2020) in the same hospitals. Demographic data, level of pre-hospital care (Advanced Life Support-ALS, Basic Life Support-BLS), type of transportation, mechanism of injury (MOI), abbreviated injury score (AIS, 1998 version), injury severity score (ISS), revised trauma score (RTS), and ICU admission and survival outcome of all the patients admitted to the three trauma centers designed as hubs, were reviewed. Screening for COVID-19 was performed with nasopharyngeal swabs, chest ultrasound, and/or computed tomography. RESULTS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, trauma patients admitted to the hubs increased (46.4% vs 28.3%, p < 0.001) with an increase in pre-hospital time (71.8 vs 61.3 min, p < 0.01), while observed in hospital mortality was unaffected. TRISS, ISS, AIS, and ICU admission were similar in both periods. During the COVID-19 outbreak, we observed substantial changes in MOI of severe trauma patients admitted to three hubs, with increases of unintentional (31.9% vs 18.5%, p < 0.05) and intentional falls (8.4% vs 1.2%, p < 0.05), whereas the pandemic restrictions reduced road- related injuries (35.6% vs 60%, p < 0.05). Deaths on scene were significantly increased (17.7% vs 6.8%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 outbreak affected the epidemiology of severe trauma patients. An increase in trauma patient admissions to a few designated facilities with high level of care obtained satisfactory results, while COVID-19 patients overwhelmed resources of most other hospitals.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde/tendências , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , Sistema de Registros , Centros de Traumatologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologia , Adulto , Comorbidade , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização/tendências , Humanos , Escala de Gravidade do Ferimento , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ferimentos e Lesões/diagnóstico , Ferimentos e Lesões/terapia
19.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(22): e26258, 2021 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34087916

RESUMO

ABSTRACT: We aimed to study the epidemiological changes in geriatric trauma in Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates, in the past decade to give recommendations on injury prevention.Trauma patients aged 65 years and above who were hospitalized at Al-Ain Hospital for more than 24 hours or died in the hospital after their arrival regardless of the length of stay were studied. Data were extracted from the Al-Ain Hospital trauma registry. Two periods were compared; March 2003 to March 2006 and January 2014 to December 2017. Studied variables which were compared included demography, mechanism of injury and its location, and clinical outcome.There were 66 patients in the first period and 200 patients in the second period. The estimated annual incidence of hospitalized geriatric trauma patients in Al-Ain City was 8.5 per 1000 geriatric inhabitants in the first period compared with 7.8 per 1000 geriatric inhabitants in the second period. Furthermore, mortality was reduced from 7.6% to 2% (P = 0.04). There was a significant increase in falls on the same level by14.9% (62.1%-77%, P = 0.02, Pearson χ2 test). This was associated with a significant increase of injuries occurring at home (55.4%-78.7% P = 0.0003, Fisher Exact test). There was also a strong trend in the reduction of road traffic collision injuries which was reduced by 10.8% (27.3%-16.5%, P = 0.07, Fisher Exact test).Although the incidence and severity of geriatric trauma did not change over the last decade, in-hospital mortality has significantly decreased over time. There was a significant increase in injuries occurring at homes and in falls on the same level. The home environment should be targeted in injury prevention programs so as to reduce geriatric injuries.


Assuntos
Acidentes por Quedas/prevenção & controle , Serviços de Saúde para Idosos/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologia , Ferimentos e Lesões/prevenção & controle , Acidentes por Quedas/mortalidade , Acidentes por Quedas/estatística & dados numéricos , Acidentes de Trânsito/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Escala de Coma de Glasgow/normas , Escala de Coma de Glasgow/estatística & dados numéricos , Serviços de Saúde para Idosos/tendências , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , Escala de Gravidade do Ferimento , Masculino , Estudos Prospectivos , Sistema de Registros , Emirados Árabes Unidos/epidemiologia , Ferimentos e Lesões/mortalidade
20.
JAMA Netw Open ; 4(6): e2111788, 2021 06 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34115129

RESUMO

Importance: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common complication of COVID-19. It is not well understood how hospitals have managed VTE prevention and the effect of prevention strategies on mortality. Objective: To characterize frequency, variation across hospitals, and change over time in VTE prophylaxis and treatment-dose anticoagulation in patients hospitalized for COVID-19, as well as the association of anticoagulation strategies with in-hospital and 60-day mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study of adults hospitalized with COVID-19 used a pseudorandom sample from 30 US hospitals in the state of Michigan participating in a collaborative quality initiative. Data analyzed were from patients hospitalized between March 7, 2020, and June 17, 2020. Data were analyzed through March 2021. Exposures: Nonadherence to VTE prophylaxis (defined as missing ≥2 days of VTE prophylaxis) and receipt of treatment-dose or prophylactic-dose anticoagulants vs no anticoagulation during hospitalization. Main Outcomes and Measures: The effect of nonadherence and anticoagulation strategies on in-hospital and 60-day mortality was assessed using multinomial logit models with inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results: Of a total 1351 patients with COVID-19 included (median [IQR] age, 64 [52-75] years; 47.7% women, 48.9% Black patients), only 18 (1.3%) had a confirmed VTE, and 219 (16.2%) received treatment-dose anticoagulation. Use of treatment-dose anticoagulation without imaging ranged from 0% to 29% across hospitals and increased over time (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.46; 95% CI, 1.31-1.61 per week). Of 1127 patients who ever received anticoagulation, 392 (34.8%) missed 2 or more days of prophylaxis. Missed prophylaxis varied from 11% to 61% across hospitals and decreased markedly over time (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97 per week). VTE nonadherence was associated with higher 60-day (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.31; 95% CI, 1.03-1.67) but not in-hospital mortality (aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.91-1.03). Receiving any dose of anticoagulation (vs no anticoagulation) was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (only prophylactic dose: aHR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.26-0.52; any treatment dose: aHR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.25-0.58). However, only the prophylactic dose of anticoagulation remained associated with lower mortality at 60 days (prophylactic dose: aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51-0.90; treatment dose: aHR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.63-1.35). Conclusions and Relevance: This large, multicenter cohort of patients hospitalized with COVID-19, found evidence of rapid dissemination and implementation of anticoagulation strategies, including use of treatment-dose anticoagulation. As only prophylactic-dose anticoagulation was associated with lower 60-day mortality, prophylactic dosing strategies may be optimal for patients hospitalized with COVID-19.


Assuntos
Anticoagulantes/uso terapêutico , COVID-19/complicações , Hospitalização/tendências , SARS-CoV-2 , Tromboembolia Venosa/prevenção & controle , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Feminino , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Tromboembolia Venosa/epidemiologia , Tromboembolia Venosa/etiologia
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