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1.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 26(16): 16682-16694, 2019 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30989611

RESUMO

Much of the existing research analyses on emissions and climate policy are dominantly based on emissions data provided by production-based accounting (PBA) system. However, PBA provides an incomplete picture of driving forces behind these emission changes and impact of global trade on emissions, simply by neglecting the environmental impacts of consumption. To remedy this problem, several studies propose to consider national emissions calculated by consumption-based accounting (CBA) systems in greenhouse gas (GHG) assessments for progress and comparisons among the countries. In this article, we question the relevance of PBA's dominance. To this end, we, firstly, try to assess and compare PBA with CBA adopted in greenhouse gas emissions accounting systems in climate change debates on several issues and to discuss the policy implications of the choice of approach. Secondly, we investigate the convergence patterns in production-based and consumption-based emissions in 35 Annex B countries for the period between 1990 and 2015. This study, for the first time, puts all these arguments together and discusses possible outcomes of convergence analysis by employing both the production- and consumption-based CO2 per capita emissions data. The empirical results found some important conclusions which challenge most of the existing CO2 convergence studies.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Mudança Climática , Desenvolvimento Econômico/tendências , Política Ambiental , Efeito Estufa , Gases de Efeito Estufa/análise , Mudança Climática/economia , Política Ambiental/economia , Efeito Estufa/economia
2.
PLoS One ; 14(4): e0212932, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30947312

RESUMO

Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/economia , Inundações/economia , Modelos Teóricos , Inundações/prevenção & controle , Alemanha , Humanos , Seguro/economia , Gestão de Riscos , Incerteza
3.
PLoS One ; 14(3): e0213378, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30913228

RESUMO

Future climate change will impose increased variability on food production and food trading networks. However, the effect of climate variability and sudden shocks on resource availability through trade and its subsequent effect on population growth is largely unknown. Here we study the effect of resource variability and network topology on access to resources and population growth, using a model of population growth limited by resource availability in a trading network. Resources are redistributed in the network based on supply and the distance between nodes (i.e. cities or countries). Resources at nodes vary over time with wave parameters that mimic changes in biomass production arising from known climate variability. Random perturbations to resources are applied to study resilience of individual nodes and the system as a whole. The model demonstrates that redistribution of resources increases the maximum population that can be supported (carrying capacity) by the network. Fluctuations in carrying capacity depend on the amplitude and frequency of resource variability: fluctuations become larger for increasing amplitude and decreasing frequency. Our study shows that topology is the key factor determining the carrying capacity of a node. In larger networks the carrying capacity increases and the distribution of resources in the network becomes more equal. The most central nodes achieve a higher carrying capacity than nodes with a lower centrality. Moreover, central nodes are less susceptible to long-term resource variability and shocks. These insights can be used to understand how worldwide equitable access to resources can be maintained under increasing climate variability.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Indústria Alimentícia , Abastecimento de Alimentos , Mudança Climática/economia , Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Comércio , Simulação por Computador , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/estatística & dados numéricos , Alimentos , Indústria Alimentícia/economia , Indústria Alimentícia/estatística & dados numéricos , Abastecimento de Alimentos/economia , Abastecimento de Alimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Crescimento Demográfico
7.
Sci Total Environ ; 648: 1284-1296, 2019 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30340274

RESUMO

Deltas are especially vulnerable to climate change given their low-lying location and exposure to storm surges, coastal and fluvial flooding, sea level rise and subsidence. Increases in such events and other circumstances are contributing to the change in the environmental conditions in the deltas, which translates into changes in the productivity of ecosystems and, ultimately, into impacts on livelihoods and human well-being. Accordingly, climate change will affect not only the biophysical conditions of deltaic environments but also their economic circumstances. Furthermore, these economic implications will spill over to other regions through goods and services supply chains and via migration. In this paper we take a wider view about some of the specific studies within this Special Issue. We analyse the extent to which the biophysical context of the deltas contributes to the sustainability of the different economic activities, in the deltas and in other regions. We construct a set of environmental-extended multiregional input-output databases and Social Accounting Matrices that are used to trace the flow of provisioning ecosystem services across the supply chains, providing a view of the links between the biophysical environment and the economic activities. We also integrate this information into a Computable General Equilibrium model to assess how the changes in the provision of natural resources due to climate change can potentially affect the economies of the deltas and linked regions, and how this in turn affects economic vulnerability and sustainability in these regions.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/economia , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/economia , Ecossistema , Estuários , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Simulação por Computador , Estuários/economia , Previsões
10.
PLoS One ; 13(10): e0205317, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30304004

RESUMO

Based on carbon spot prices selected from seven carbon pilots, we assess the financial performances related to carbon volatility in China on the overall perspective. According to the results, the Chinese carbon market fluctuated severely at the beginning of carbon trading, but has stabilised in general, despite several dramatic changes related to 'yearly compliance events'. Long-term memory exists in the volatility series. Moreover, asymmetry exists in the Chinese carbon market, and volatility reacts more severely to good news than to bad news. Finally, we discuss our empirical results, and make certain suggestions regarding firms' awareness, international cooperation and individual investors not only for policy makers in China but also for other developing countries who are contemplating either commencing carbon trading or improving the current market.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono/economia , Carbono/economia , Mudança Climática/economia , Administração Financeira/economia , Carbono/metabolismo , Carbono/toxicidade , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Dióxido de Carbono/toxicidade , Efeito Estufa/economia , Humanos , Investimentos em Saúde/economia
12.
Ann N Y Acad Sci ; 1427(1): 1-90, 2018 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30230554

RESUMO

Los Angeles (LA) County's coastal areas are highly valued for their natural benefits and their economic contributions to the region. While LA County already has a high level of exposure to flooding (e.g. people, ports, and harbors), climate change and sea level rise will increase flood risk; anticipating this risk requires adaptation planning to mitigate social, economic, and physical damage. This study provides an overview of the potential effects of sea level rise on coastal LA County and describes adaptation pathways and estimates associated costs in order to cope with sea level rise. An adaptation pathway in this study is defined as the collection of measures (e.g., beach nourishment, dune restoration, flood-proofing buildings, and levees) required to lower flood risk. The aim of using different adaptation pathways is to enable a transition from one methodology to another over time. These pathways address uncertainty in future projections, allowing for flexibility among policies and potentially spreading the costs over time. Maintaining beaches, dunes, and their natural dynamics is the foundation of each of the three adaptation pathways, which address the importance of beaches for recreation, environmental value, and flood protection. In some scenarios, owing to high projections of sea level rise, additional technical engineering options such as levees and sluices may be needed to reduce flood risk. The research suggests three adaptation pathways, anticipating a +1 ft (0.3 m) to +7 ft (+2 m) sea level rise by year 2100. Total adaptation costs vary between $4.3 and $6.4 bn, depending on measures included in the adaptation pathway.


Assuntos
Aclimatação , Mudança Climática , Inundações , Mudança Climática/economia , Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador , Custos e Análise de Custo , Inundações/economia , Inundações/prevenção & controle , Inundações/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Los Angeles , Oceano Pacífico , Medição de Risco , Gestão de Riscos/economia , Gestão de Riscos/legislação & jurisprudência , Incerteza , Áreas Alagadas
14.
PLoS One ; 13(5): e0197076, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29738581

RESUMO

Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/economia , Resposta ao Choque Térmico/fisiologia , Leite/economia , Animais , Bovinos , Indústria de Laticínios/economia , Feminino , Temperatura Alta , Lactação/fisiologia , Reino Unido
15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29617317

RESUMO

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/economia , Assistência à Saúde/economia , Assistência à Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Política de Saúde/economia , Política de Saúde/legislação & jurisprudência , Política , Humanos
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 115(8): 1831-1836, 2018 02 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29358389

RESUMO

Managing natural resources in an era of increasing climate impacts requires accounting for the synergistic effects of climate, ecosystem changes, and harvesting on resource productivity. Coincident with recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and removal of large predatory fish, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Using a model that links ocean temperature, predator density, and fishing to population productivity, we show that harvester-driven conservation efforts to protect large lobsters prepared the Gulf of Maine lobster fishery to capitalize on favorable ecosystem conditions, resulting in the record-breaking landings recently observed in the region. In contrast, in the warmer southern New England region, the absence of similar conservation efforts precipitated warming-induced recruitment failure that led to the collapse of the fishery. Population projections under expected warming suggest that the American lobster fishery is vulnerable to future temperature increases, but continued efforts to preserve the stock's reproductive potential can dampen the negative impacts of warming. This study demonstrates that, even though global climate change is severely impacting marine ecosystems, widely adopted, proactive conservation measures can increase the resilience of commercial fisheries to climate change.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/economia , Pesqueiros/economia , Nephropidae , Animais , Oceano Atlântico , América do Norte
19.
PLoS Biol ; 16(1): e2003446, 2018 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29315309

RESUMO

Global warming and ocean acidification are forecast to exert significant impacts on marine ecosystems worldwide. However, most of these projections are based on ecological proxies or experiments on single species or simplified food webs. How energy fluxes are likely to change in marine food webs in response to future climates remains unclear, hampering forecasts of ecosystem functioning. Using a sophisticated mesocosm experiment, we model energy flows through a species-rich multilevel food web, with live habitats, natural abiotic variability, and the potential for intra- and intergenerational adaptation. We show experimentally that the combined stress of acidification and warming reduced energy flows from the first trophic level (primary producers and detritus) to the second (herbivores), and from the second to the third trophic level (carnivores). Warming in isolation also reduced the energy flow from herbivores to carnivores, the efficiency of energy transfer from primary producers and detritus to herbivores and detritivores, and the living biomass of detritivores, herbivores, and carnivores. Whilst warming and acidification jointly boosted primary producer biomass through an expansion of cyanobacteria, this biomass was converted to detritus rather than to biomass at higher trophic levels-i.e., production was constrained to the base of the food web. In contrast, ocean acidification affected the food web positively by enhancing trophic flow from detritus and primary producers to herbivores, and by increasing the biomass of carnivores. Our results show how future climate change can potentially weaken marine food webs through reduced energy flow to higher trophic levels and a shift towards a more detritus-based system, leading to food web simplification and altered producer-consumer dynamics, both of which have important implications for the structuring of benthic communities.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática/economia , Cianobactérias/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Cadeia Alimentar , Adaptação Fisiológica , Animais , Organismos Aquáticos , Biomassa , Simulação por Computador , Cianobactérias/metabolismo , Ecologia , Ecossistema , Transferência de Energia , Aquecimento Global/economia , Homeostase
20.
Lancet ; 391(10120): 581-630, 2018 02 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29096948
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