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1.
Viruses ; 13(5)2021 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34063465

RESUMO

The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutively simulated in the epidemiological and economic models. Both increased testing and stringency could reduce cases, hospitalizations and deaths. While policies based on increased testing rates lead to higher healthcare costs, increased stringency is correlated with greater GDP declines, with differences of up to 4.4% points. Increased test sensitivity may lead to a reduction of cases, hospitalizations and deaths and to the implementation of pooling techniques that can increase throughput testing capacity. Alternative strategies to control COVID-19 spread entail differing economic outcomes. Decision-makers may utilize this tool to identify the most suitable strategy considering epidemiological and economic outcomes.


Assuntos
COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Política de Saúde/economia , Pandemias/economia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Análise Custo-Benefício , Governo , Produto Interno Bruto , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento , Modelos Econômicos , Modelos Teóricos , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Molecular , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Espanha/epidemiologia
2.
Value Health ; 24(5): 607-614, 2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33933228

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative "testing, tracing, and isolation" approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impact. To assist policy makers, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these 2 strategies. METHODS: A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, and Deceased (SEIRD) model was employed to assess the situation in Israel, a small country with ∼9 million people. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of these strategies as well as the expected number of infected individuals and deaths were calculated. RESULTS: A nationwide lockdown is expected to save, on average, 274 (median 124, interquartile range: 71-221) lives compared to the "testing, tracing, and isolation" approach. However, the ICER will be, on average, $45 104 156 (median $49.6 million, interquartile range: 22.7-220.1) to prevent 1 case of death. CONCLUSION: A national lockdown has a moderate advantage in saving lives with tremendous costs and possible overwhelming economic effects. These findings should assist decision makers dealing with additional waves of this pandemic.


Assuntos
/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/economia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , /epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Israel/epidemiologia , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Pública/instrumentação , Saúde Pública/métodos , Saúde Pública/normas
4.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0246053, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34043626

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden. AIMS: This modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury. RESULTS: We estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Maori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Maori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m). CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Modelos Econômicos , Pandemias/economia , SARS-CoV-2 , Desemprego , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia
5.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0250938, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34014941

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic seems to be the most important phenomenon observed from March 2020 in virtually all countries of the world. The necessity to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and keep health care systems efficient resulted in the forced, drastic limitation of economic activity. Many service sectors were hit particularly hard with this but industry and agriculture were also affected. In particular, the pandemic substantially influenced financial markets and we can observe that some markets or instruments vary in stability since they have been affected in the different degree. In the paper, we present the problem of stability of stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the low number of works related to CEE countries during the pandemic, we analyze the Warsaw Stock Exchange, which is one of the most important markets in the CEE. Our main goal was to find how various industries represented by stock market indices have reacted to the COVID-19 shock and consequently which sectors turned out to keep stability and remained resistant to the pandemic. In our investigation, we use two clustering methods: the K-means and the Ward techniques with the criterion of maximizing the silhouette coefficient and six indicators describing stability in terms of profitability, volume, overbought/oversold conditions and volatility. The results of the research present that during the pandemic it was possible to identify 5 clusters of sector indices in the short term and 4 in the medium term. We found that the composition of the clusters is quite stable over time and that none of the obtained clusters can be univocally considered the most or the least stable taking into account all the analyzed indicators. However, we showed that the obtained clusters have different stability origins, i.e. they vary from each other in terms of the investigated indicators of stability.


Assuntos
/economia , Comércio/economia , Investimentos em Saúde/economia , Pandemias/economia , Humanos , Modelos Econômicos
7.
PLoS One ; 16(4): e0248818, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33852593

RESUMO

The implementation of large-scale containment measures by governments to contain the spread of the COVID-19 virus has resulted in large impacts to the global economy. Here, we derive a new high-frequency indicator of economic activity using empirical vessel tracking data, and use it to estimate the global maritime trade losses during the first eight months of the pandemic. We go on to use this high-frequency dataset to infer the effect of individual non-pharmaceutical interventions on maritime exports, which we use as a proxy of economic activity. Our results show widespread port-level trade losses, with the largest absolute losses found for ports in China, the Middle-East and Western Europe, associated with the collapse of specific supply-chains (e.g. oil, vehicle manufacturing). In total, we estimate that global maritime trade reduced by -7.0% to -9.6% during the first eight months of 2020, which is equal to around 206-286 million tonnes in volume losses and up to 225-412 billion USD in value losses. We find large sectoral and geographical disparities in impacts. Manufacturing sectors are hit hardest, with losses up to 11.8%, whilst some small islands developing states and low-income economies suffered the largest relative trade losses. Moreover, we find a clear negative impact of COVID-19 related school and public transport closures on country-wide exports. Overall, we show how real-time indicators of economic activity can inform policy-makers about the impacts of individual policies on the economy, and can support economic recovery efforts by allocating funds to the hardest hit economies and sectors.


Assuntos
/economia , Comércio/economia , Quarentena/economia , /epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Economia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Governo , Humanos , Oriente Médio/epidemiologia , Pandemias/economia , Navios/economia
9.
Ann Med ; 53(1): 581-586, 2021 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33825598

RESUMO

Although coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic, it has several specificities influencing its outcomes due to the entwinement of several factors, which anthropologists have called "syndemics". Drawing upon Singer and Clair's syndemics model, I focus on synergistic interaction among chronic kidney disease (CKD), diabetes, and COVID-19 in Pakistan. I argue that over 36 million people in Pakistan are standing at a higher risk of contracting COVID-19, developing severe complications, and losing their lives. These two diseases, but several other socio-cultural, economic, and political factors contributing to structured vulnerabilities, would function as confounders. To deal with the critical effects of these syndemics the government needs appropriate policies and their implementation during the pandemic and post-pandemic. To eliminate or at least minimize various vulnerabilities, Pakistan needs drastic changes, especially to overcome (formal) illiteracy, unemployment, poverty, gender difference, and rural and urban difference.


Assuntos
/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/epidemiologia , Sindemia , /prevenção & controle , Mudança Climática/economia , Mudança Climática/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Confusão Epidemiológicos , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Países em Desenvolvimento/estatística & dados numéricos , Diabetes Mellitus/economia , Diabetes Mellitus/prevenção & controle , Abastecimento de Alimentos/economia , Abastecimento de Alimentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Letramento em Saúde/economia , Letramento em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Pandemias/economia , Política , Pobreza/economia , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/economia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/prevenção & controle , Desemprego/estatística & dados numéricos
13.
Front Public Health ; 9: 612725, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33855007

RESUMO

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic is associated with elevated rates of anxiety and relatively lower compliance with public health guidelines in younger adults. To develop strategies for reducing anxiety and increasing adherence with health guidelines, it is important to understand the factors that contribute to anxiety and health compliance in the context of COVID-19. Earlier research has shown that greater perceived risk of negative events and their costs are associated with increased anxiety and compliance with health behaviors, but it is unclear what role they play in a novel pandemic surrounded by uncertainty. In the present study we measured (1) perceived risk as the self-reported probability of being infected and experiencing serious symptoms due to COVID-19 and (2) perceived cost as financial, real-world, physical, social, and emotional consequences of being infected with COVID-19. Worry was assessed using the Penn State Worry Questionnaire (PWSQ) and health compliance was measured as endorsement of the World Health Organization (WHO) health directives for COVID-19. Our results showed that greater perceived risk and costs of contracting the COVID-19 virus were associated with greater worry and while only costs were associated with greater compliance with health behaviors. Neither self-reported worry nor its interaction with cost estimates was associated with increased engagement in health behaviors. Our results provide important insight into decision making mechanisms involved in both increased anxiety and health compliance in COVID-19 and have implications for developing psychoeducational and psychotherapeutic strategies to target both domains.


Assuntos
Ansiedade/epidemiologia , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Pandemias/economia , Adolescente , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Cooperação do Paciente , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem
20.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 5043, 2021 03 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33658596

RESUMO

The current COVID-19 pandemic has impacted millions of people and the global economy. Tourism has been one the most affected economic sectors because of the mobility restrictions established by governments and uncoordinated actions from origin and destination regions. The coordination of restrictions and reopening policies could help control the spread of virus and enhance economies, but this is not an easy endeavor since touristic companies, citizens, and local governments have conflicting interests. We propose an evolutionary game model that reflects a collective risk dilemma behind these decisions. To this aim, we represent regions as players, organized in groups; and consider the perceived risk as a strict lock-down and null economic activity. The costs for regions when restricting their mobility are heterogeneous, given that the dependence on tourism of each region is diverse. Our analysis shows that, for both large populations and the EU NUTS2 case study, the existence of heterogeneous costs enhances global agreements. Furthermore, the decision on how to group regions to maximize the regions' agreement of the population is a relevant issue for decision makers to consider. We find out that a layout of groups based on similar costs of cooperation boosts the regions' agreements and avoid the risk of having a total lock-down and a negligible tourism activity. These findings can guide policy makers to facilitate agreements among regions to maximize the tourism recovery.


Assuntos
/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/economia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias/economia , Fatores de Risco , 51675
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