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1.
Medicina (B Aires) ; 85(1): 205-212, 2025.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39900064

RESUMO

The clinical reasoning process for decision-making in medicine is complex and involves multiple factors, including diagnostic probabilities, study characteristics, costs, and patient preferences. This article highlights the role of pre-test probability in calculating the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnostic tests and also likelihood ratios. It also discusses concepts such as sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, and their relationship with pre-test and post-test probabilities in various clinical contexts. The notion of treatment and diagnostic thresholds is introduced, emphasizing their impact on medical decision-making. Finally, it underscores that diagnostic tests should only be requested if their results can change clinical management, promoting a rational and cost-effective approach to medical practice.


El proceso de razonamiento clínico para tomar decisiones en medicina es complejo e involucra múltiples factores, como probabilidades diagnósticas, características de los estudios, costos y preferencias del paciente. Este artículo resalta la importancia de la probabilidad pre-test para calcular el valor predictivo positivo (VPP) y negativo (VPN) de estudios diagnósticos, así como las razones de verosimilitud. Además, aborda conceptos como sensibilidad, especificidad y valores predictivos, y cómo estos se relacionan con la probabilidad pre-test y pos-test en contextos clínicos diversos. Se introduce la noción de umbrales de tratamiento y de solicitud de estudios diagnósticos, destacando su importancia en la toma de decisiones médicas. Finalmente, se enfatiza que los estudios diagnósticos deben ser solicitados únicamente si su resultado puede modificar la conducta clínica, promoviendo un enfoque racional y costo-efectivo en la práctica médica.


Assuntos
Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Probabilidade , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Humanos , Tomada de Decisão Clínica/métodos , Funções Verossimilhança
2.
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol ; J. Am. Coll. Cardiol;84(18 Suppl. B): 91-92, Oct. 2024. ilus.
Artigo em Inglês | CONASS, Sec. Est. Saúde SP, SESSP-IDPCPROD, Sec. Est. Saúde SP | ID: biblio-1577803

RESUMO

BACKGROUND Use of intravascular imaging (IVI) to identify lesions suitable for percutaneous coronary intervention remains debatable. We conducted an updated lesion-level meta-analysis to examine the relationship between IVI and fractional flow reserve (FFR). METHODS We searched Medline, Embase, and Web of Science for studies correlating intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) and optical coherence tomography (OCT) minimal lumen area (MLA) and FFR. Data were digitized from scatterplots. We used continuous median regression (MLA vs FFR) and logistic regression "V-plots" (MLA against a 0.80 FFR cutoff). RESULTS 5,655 lesions (36 studies) were included (IVUS: n 4,627; OCT: n 1,028). The 90% range of FFR values and the agrément with an FFR cutoff of 0.80 is shown across the spectrum of MLAS for IVUS and OCT. In non-left main (LM) lesions, an IVUS-MLA >5.35 mm² and an OCT-MLA >3.89 mm² had 90% probability for anFFR >0.80. No IVI-MLA had at least 90% probability that FFR would be <0.80 (Figure 1A). In LM lesions, IVUS-MLA <2.88 mm² and 6.99 mm² and OCT-MLA <2.79 mm² and 7.22 mm²offered 90% probability that the LM lesion was vs was not functionally significant (Figure 1B). OCT had a narrower window of uncertainty than IVUS in non-LM, while both offered similar precision in LM (Figure 1C). CONCLUSIONS No single IVI MLA cutoff can be used for ischemia identification, as its accuracy varies across the spectrum of MLAs for LM and non-LM lesions. The "V-plot" offers a map of probabilities of the associations between IVI MLAs with FFR that could be used as guidance for clinical decision making.


Assuntos
Tomografia de Coerência Óptica , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea , Tomada de Decisão Clínica , Probabilidade
3.
Bull Math Biol ; 86(11): 131, 2024 Sep 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39311987

RESUMO

In this work, we obtained a general formulation for the mating probability and fertile egg production in helminth parasites, focusing on the reproductive behavior of polygamous parasites and its implications for transmission dynamics. By exploring various reproductive variables in parasites with density-dependent fecundity, such as helminth parasites, we departed from the traditional assumptions of Poisson and negative binomial distributions to adopt an arbitrary distribution model. Our analysis considered critical factors such as mating probability, fertile egg production, and the distribution of female and male parasites among hosts, whether they are distributed together or separately. We show that the distribution of parasites within hosts significantly influences transmission dynamics, with implications for parasite persistence and, therefore, with implications in parasite control. Using statistical models and empirical data from Monte Carlo simulations, we provide insights into the complex interplay of reproductive variables in helminth parasites, enhancing our understanding of parasite dynamics and the transmission of parasitic diseases.


Assuntos
Helmintos , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Método de Monte Carlo , Animais , Feminino , Helmintos/fisiologia , Masculino , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita/fisiologia , Fertilidade/fisiologia , Simulação por Computador , Reprodução/fisiologia , Comportamento Sexual Animal/fisiologia , Probabilidade , Óvulo/fisiologia , Humanos
4.
Clin Rheumatol ; 43(11): 3313-3322, 2024 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39243279

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Risk Probability Index (SLERPI) in Colombian patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: The Colombian cohort included 435 SLE patients and 430 controls with other autoimmune diseases (ADs). Clinical and serological data were collected, and SLE was indicated by SLERPI scores > 7. The American College of Rheumatology (ACR)-1997, Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC)-2012, and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR)/ACR-2019 criteria were used as reference standards. The impact of overt polyautoimmunity (PolyA) on SLERPI performance was assessed. Additionally, multivariate lineal regression analysis was performed to evaluate the contribution of SLERPI features to the overall SLERPI score. RESULTS: SLE patients had higher SLERPI scores (P < 0.0001), with almost 90% meeting "definite" lupus criteria. Main factors influencing SLERPI included immunological disorder (ß:44.75, P < 0.0001), malar/maculopapular rash (ß:18.43, P < 0.0001), and anti-nuclear antibody positivity (ß:15.65, P < 0.0001). In contrast, subacute cutaneous lupus erythematosus/discoid lupus erythematosus (ß:2.40, P > 0.05) and interstitial lung disease (ß:-21.58, P > 0.05) were not significant factors to the overall SLERPI score. SLERPI demonstrated high sensitivity for SLE, both for the overall SLE group and for those without overt PolyA (95.4% and 94.6%, respectively), but had relatively low specificity (92.8% and 93.7%, respectively). The model showed high sensitivity for hematological lupus (98.8%) and lupus nephritis (96.0%), but low sensitivity for neuropsychiatric lupus (93.2%). Compared to the ACR-1997, SLICC-2012 and EULAR/ACR-2019 criteria, SLERPI yielded the highest sensitivity and lowest specificity. CONCLUSION: SLERPI efficiently identified SLE patients in a Colombian cohort, showing high sensitivity but low specificity. The model effectively distinguishes SLE patients, even in the presence of concurrent overt PolyA. Key Points •SLERPI has a high sensitivity, but low specificity compared to ACR-1997, SLICC-2012 and EULAR/ACR-2019 criteria in the Colombian population. •Within the SLERPI score, immunological disorder, malar/maculopapular rash, and anti-nuclear antibody positivity are the strongest predictors of SLE. •SLERPI model can efficiently distinguish patients with SLE, regardless of concomitant overt PolyA. •SLERPI demonstrates high sensitivity in identifying hematological and nephritic subphenotypes of SLE.


Assuntos
Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico , Humanos , Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico/diagnóstico , Lúpus Eritematoso Sistêmico/epidemiologia , Feminino , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Adulto , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Estudos de Coortes , Anticorpos Antinucleares/sangue , Medição de Risco , Probabilidade , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem
5.
Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop ; 166(3): 244-251, 2024 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38935005

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: This study evaluated the probability of developing malocclusions in mixed dentition. METHODS: A longitudinal study was conducted with 598 children (aged 5 years) in deciduous dentition. The children were followed for 3 years until mixed dentition (aged 8 years). Overjet, overbite, and transversal relations were evaluated. Bayesian models were used to analyze the data and estimate the parameters. RESULTS: The parameter θ was used for the distributions, indicating the probability of presenting a given condition with a credibility index (ICr) of 95%. After 3 years of follow-up, 121 children were reevaluated. The results showed that children have a high probability of malocclusion in mixed dentition. There was a higher probability of developing an increased overjet in the mixed dentition of 20.5% (ICr 95%, 13.6-28.4) to 48.3% (ICr 95%, 39.1-57.7) and a higher probability of having a normal overbite in the deciduous dentition and a lower probability in the mixed dentition (ICr 95%, 9.2-21.3). CONCLUSIONS: Considering the probabilistic model of Bayesian analysis, children with normal overjet in the deciduous dentition may show an increased overjet in the mixed dentition. Concerning overbite, children may present an anterior open bite during the transition between deciduous and mixed dentition, as well as self-correction of deep overbite in mixed dentition. Furthermore, they may present a posterior crossbite during the mixed dentition when there is a normal transverse relationship in the deciduous dentition.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Dentição Mista , Má Oclusão , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Criança , Má Oclusão/etiologia , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Masculino , Dente Decíduo , Probabilidade
6.
Environ Sci Technol ; 58(11): 4948-4956, 2024 Mar 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38445593

RESUMO

Methane emissions from the oil and gas supply chain can be intermittent, posing challenges for monitoring and mitigation efforts. This study examines shallow water facilities in the US Gulf of Mexico with repeat atmospheric observations to evaluate temporal variation in site-specific methane emissions. We combine new and previous observations to develop a longitudinal study, spanning from days to months to almost five years, evaluating the emissions behavior of sites over time. We also define and determine the chance of subsequent detection (CSD): the likelihood that an emitting site will be observed emitting again. The average emitting central hub in the Gulf has a 74% CSD at any time interval. Eight facilities contribute 50% of total emissions and are over 80% persistent with a 96% CSD above 100 kg/h and 46% persistent with a 42% CSD above 1000 kg/h, indicating that large emissions are persistent at certain sites. Forward-looking infrared (FLIR) footage shows many of these sites exhibiting cold venting. This suggests that for offshore, a low sampling frequency over large spatial coverage can capture typical site emissions behavior and identify targets for mitigation. We further demonstrate the preliminary use of space-based observations to monitor offshore emissions over time.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Metano , Metano/análise , Golfo do México , Estudos Longitudinais , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Probabilidade , Gás Natural
7.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(3): e17208, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38441414

RESUMO

Substantial global restoration commitments are occurring alongside a rapid expansion in land-hungry tropical commodities, including to supply increasing demand for wood products. Future commercial tree plantations may deliver high timber yields, shrinking the footprint of production forestry, but there is an as-yet unquantified risk that plantations may expand into priority restoration areas, with marked environmental costs. Focusing on Brazil-a country of exceptional restoration importance and one of the largest tropical timber producers-we use random forest models and information on the economic, social, and spatial drivers of historic commercial tree plantation expansion to estimate and map the probability of future monoculture tree plantation expansion between 2020 and 2030. We then evaluate potential plantation-restoration conflicts and opportunities at national and biome-scales and under different future production and restoration pathways. Our simulations show that of 2.8 Mha of future plantation expansion (equivalent to plantation expansion 2010-2020), ~78,000 ha (3%) is forecast to occur in the top 1% of restoration priority areas for terrestrial vertebrates, with ~547,500 ha (20%) and ~1,300,000 ha (46%) in the top 10% and 30% of priority areas, respectively. Just ~459,000 ha (16%) of expansion is forecast within low-restoration areas (bottom 30% restoration priorities), and the first 1 Mha of plantation expansion is likely to have disproportionate impacts, with potential restoration-plantation overlap starkest in the Atlantic Forest but prominent in the Pampas and Cerrado as well. Our findings suggest that robust, coherent land-use policies must be deployed to ensure that significant trade-offs between restoration and production objectives are navigated, and that commodity expansion does not undermine the most tractable conservation gains under emerging global restoration agendas. They also highlight the potentially significant role an engaged forestry sector could play in improving biodiversity outcomes in restoration projects in Brazil, and presumably elsewhere.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , Ecossistema , Animais , Brasil , Agricultura Florestal , Probabilidade
8.
Anim Cogn ; 27(1): 21, 2024 Mar 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38441671

RESUMO

Several studies have investigated habituation in a defensive context, but few have addressed responses to dangerous stimuli. In such cases, animals should not habituate since this could cost their lives. Here we have stimulated individuals of the harvester Mischonyx squalidus with a predatory stimulus (squeezing with tweezers) in repeated trials within and between days, and measured the occurrence and magnitude of nipping, a defensive behavior. Contrary to our expectations, they did habituate to this stimulus. The probability and magnitude of response declined over trials during each of three days of testing in a typical habituation pattern. During the trials we also observed other defensive behaviors. We discuss our results mainly considering alternative defensive responses. Our data show that we lack information on (1) the role played by the ambiguity of stimuli, (2) the role played by subsequent stimuli and (3) the importance of the array of defensive behaviors of a species in understanding habituation. Although ubiquitous across animals and therefore expected, habituation is described for the first time in the order Opiliones.


Assuntos
Aracnídeos , Humanos , Animais , Habituação Psicofisiológica , Comportamento Predatório , Probabilidade
9.
Biometrics ; 80(1)2024 Jan 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38465989

RESUMO

Computing the agreement between 2 continuous sequences is of great interest in statistics when comparing 2 instruments or one instrument with a gold standard. The probability of agreement quantifies the similarity between 2 variables of interest, and it is useful for determining what constitutes a practically important difference. In this article, we introduce a generalization of the PA for the treatment of spatial variables. Our proposal makes the PA dependent on the spatial lag. We establish the conditions for which the PA decays as a function of the distance lag for isotropic stationary and nonstationary spatial processes. Estimation is addressed through a first-order approximation that guarantees the asymptotic normality of the sample version of the PA. The sensitivity of the PA with respect to the covariance parameters is studied for finite sample size. The new method is described and illustrated with real data involving autumnal changes in the green chromatic coordinate (Gcc), an index of "greenness" that captures the phenological stage of tree leaves, is associated with carbon flux from ecosystems, and is estimated from repeated images of forest canopies.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Florestas , Probabilidade , Tamanho da Amostra
10.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0299290, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38442106

RESUMO

Probabilistic models enhance breeding, especially for the Tahiti acid lime, a fruit essential to fresh markets and industry. These models identify superior and persistent individuals using probability theory, providing a measure of uncertainty that can aid the recommendation. The objective of our study was to evaluate the use of a Bayesian probabilistic model for the recommendation of superior and persistent genotypes of Tahiti acid lime evaluated in 12 harvests. Leveraging the Monte Carlo Hamiltonian sampling algorithm, we calculated the probability of superior performance (superior genotypic value), and the probability of superior stability (reduced variance of the genotype-by-harvests interaction) of each genotype. The probability of superior stability was compared to a measure of persistence estimated from genotypic values predicted using a frequentist model. Our results demonstrated the applicability and advantages of the Bayesian probabilistic model, yielding similar parameters to those of the frequentist model, while providing further information about the probabilities associated with genotype performance and stability. Genotypes G15, G4, G18, and G11 emerged as the most superior in performance, whereas G24, G7, G13, and G3 were identified as the most stable. This study highlights the usefulness of Bayesian probabilistic models in the fruit trees cultivars recommendation.


Assuntos
Compostos de Cálcio , Óxidos , Melhoramento Vegetal , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Probabilidade , Polinésia
11.
BMC Genomics ; 25(1): 93, 2024 Jan 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38254039

RESUMO

BACKGROUNDING: Stayability, which may be defined as the probability of a cow remaining in the herd until a reference age or at a specific number of calvings, is usually measured late in the animal's life. Thus, if used as selection criteria, it will increase the generation interval and consequently might decrease the annual genetic gain. Measuring stayability at an earlier age could be a reasonable strategy to avoid this problem. In this sense, a better understanding of the genetic architecture of this trait at different ages and/or at different calvings is important. This study was conducted to identify possible regions with major effects on stayability measured considering different numbers of calvings in Nellore cattle as well as pathways that can be involved in its expression throughout the female's productive life. RESULTS: The top 10 most important SNP windows explained, on average, 17.60% of the genetic additive variance for stayability, varying between 13.70% (at the eighth calving) and 21% (at the fifth calving). These SNP windows were located on 17 chromosomes (1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20, 27, and 28), and they harbored a total of 176 annotated genes. The functional analyses of these genes, in general, indicate that the expression of stayability from the second to the sixth calving is mainly affected by genetic factors related to reproductive performance, and nervous and immune systems. At the seventh and eighth calvings, genes and pathways related to animal health, such as density bone and cancer, might be more relevant. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that part of the target genomic regions in selecting for stayability at earlier ages (from the 2th to the 6th calving) would be different than selecting for this trait at later ages (7th and 8th calvings). While the expression of stayability at earlier ages appeared to be more influenced by genetic factors linked to reproductive performance together with an overall health/immunity, at later ages genetic factors related to an overall animal health gain relevance. These results support that selecting for stayability at earlier ages (perhaps at the second calving) could be applied, having practical implications in breeding programs since it could drastically reduce the generation interval, accelerating the genetic progress.


Assuntos
Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Genômica , Feminino , Animais , Bovinos/genética , Fenótipo , Probabilidade , Reprodução/genética
12.
Langenbecks Arch Surg ; 409(1): 33, 2024 Jan 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38195723

RESUMO

PURPOSE: This study aimed to evaluate the ability of the percentage of decrease in serum PTH level in the first 8 h after total thyroidectomy (TT) to predict hypocalcemia requiring Ca supplementation and develop a tool to predict it. METHODS: 97 patients who underwent TT with measurement of preoperative parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels were prospectively evaluated 1 and 8 h after TT; postoperative magnesium (Mg2PO) and phosphorus levels were evaluated on the 2nd day after surgery. The percentage of decrease in PTH level 1 h (%dPTH1h) and 8 h (%dPTH8h) postoperatively and predictors of hypocalcemia requiring Ca supplementation were evaluated and an equation was developed to predict this outcome. RESULTS: %dPTH1h (p = 0.002), %dPTH8h (p = 0.001) and (Mg2PO) (p < 0.01) were isolated predictors of postoperative hypocalcemia requiring Ca supplementation. The data obtained led to the development of two tools to predict this complication. CONCLUSIONS: The percentage of decrease in PTH level 1 h and 8 h postoperatively and the magnesium level on the 2nd day after surgery were predictors of more severe hypocalcemia, and an auxiliary tool for predicting this complication was developed.


Assuntos
Hipocalcemia , Humanos , Hipocalcemia/epidemiologia , Hipocalcemia/etiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Tireoidectomia/efeitos adversos , Magnésio , Probabilidade
13.
Behav Res Methods ; 56(3): 2486-2498, 2024 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37407787

RESUMO

Sentence-final completion tasks serve as valuable tools in studying language processing and the associated predictive mechanisms. There are several established sentence-completion norms for languages like English, Portuguese, French, and Spanish, each tailored to the language it was designed for and evaluated in. Yet, cultural variations among native speakers of the same language complicate the claim of a universal application of these norms. In this study, we developed a corpus of 2925 sentence-completion norms specifically for Mexican Spanish. This corpus is distinctive for several reasons: Firstly, it is the most comprehensive set of sentence-completion norms for Mexican Spanish to date. Secondly, it offers a substantial range of experimental stimuli with considerable variability in terms of the predictability of word sentence completion (cloze probability/surprisal) and the level of uncertainty inherent in the sentence context (entropy). Thirdly, the syntactic complexity of the sentences in the corpus is varied, as are the characteristics of the final word nouns (including aspects of concreteness/abstractness, length, and frequency). This paper details the generation of the sentence contexts, explains the methodology employed for data collection from a total of 1470 participants, and outlines the approach to data analysis for the establishment of sentence-completion norms. These norms provide a significant contribution to fields such as linguistics, cognitive science, and machine learning, among others, by enhancing our understanding of language, predictive mechanisms, knowledge representation, and context representation. The collected data is accessible through the Open Science Framework (OSF) at the following link: https://osf.io/js359/?view_only=bb1b328d37d643df903ed69bb2405ac0 .


Assuntos
Idioma , Linguística , Humanos , Probabilidade , Incerteza , Entropia
14.
Evolution ; 78(4): 758-767, 2024 Mar 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38064721

RESUMO

Geographic barriers can come and go depending on natural conditions. These fluctuations cause population cycles of expansion and contraction, introducing intermittent migrations that may not hinder speciation but rather promote diversification. Here, we study a neutral 2-island speciation model with intermittent migration driven by sea-level fluctuations. Seabed depth modulates isolation and connection periods between the islands, with migration occurring during connection periods with a certain probability. Mating is restricted to genetically compatible individuals on the same island and offspring inherit genomes from both parents through recombination. We observe speciation pulses that would not occur under strict isolation or continuous migration, with infrequent, temporary increases in species richness happening at different times depending on the combination of geographic settings and migration probability. The resulting dynamic patterns of richness exhibit contrasting behavior between connected and isolated scenarios, often including species that do not persist. Prolonged isolation can reduce richness to 1 species per island, resembling patterns commonly associated with archipelagos under sea-level fluctuations. Together with other studies, our results in out-of-equilibrium populations support the relevance of investigating the impact of variable migration on diversification, particularly in regions of high diversity.


Assuntos
Especiação Genética , Humanos , Probabilidade , Filogenia
15.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 2095, 2023 10 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37880646

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The regulation of working hours is governed by legal standards in formal employment. While the association between long working hours and various health outcomes has been extensively studied, there is limited evidence regarding Brazil. The objective of this study was to investigate the association among working hours, employment status, and self-rated health (SRH), taking into account differences between men and women in a national representative sample of the working population in Brazil. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted among a representative sample of 33,713 workers in Brazil to assess self-rated health (SRH). We examined the associations between working hours and employment status, categorizing working hours as standard (40-44 h per week) or long (> 44 h per week), and employment status as formal or informal. Logistic regression models were employed, adjusting for sociodemographic, occupational characteristics, and health behaviors. Probabilities of negative SRH were calculated for men and women in different exposure profiles. Results were stratified by gender, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were applied to the findings. RESULTS: The prevalence of long working hours was higher among informal workers for both men and women. Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) results revealed that informal employment (AORwomen = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.13-2.07 and AORmen = 1.55; 95% CI: 1.22-1.96) and long working hours (AORwomen = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43 and AORmen = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.00-1.30) were independently associated with negative SRH. Significant interactions between long working hours and informal employment were observed. Among individuals with the same exposure profile, women who engaged in long working hours had a higher probability of reporting negative SRH compared to men. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study are in line with the literature, as differences between men and women in the likelihood of negative self-rated health were observed. The adverse health effects underscore the importance of implementing intersectoral actions to inform the revision of regulations concerning weekly working hours and the expansion of informal employment in low- and middle-income countries.


Assuntos
Emprego , Nível de Saúde , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Brasil/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Razão de Chances , Probabilidade
16.
PLoS One ; 18(9): e0291130, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37713398

RESUMO

We introduce a general framework for empirically detecting interactions in communities of entities characterized by different features. This approach is inspired by ideas and methods coming from ecology and finance and is applied to a large dataset extracted from the cryptocurrency market. The inter-species interaction network is constructed using a similarity measure based on the log-growth rate of the capitalizations of the cryptocurrency market. The detected relevant interactions are only of the cooperative type, and the network presents a well-defined clustered structure, with two practically disjointed communities. The first one is made up of highly capitalized cryptocurrencies that are tightly connected, and the second one is made up of small-cap cryptocurrencies that are loosely linked. This approach based on the log-growth rate, instead of the conventional price returns, seems to enhance the discriminative potential of the network representation, highlighting a modular structure with compact communities and a rich hierarchy that can be ascribed to different functional groups. In fact, inside the community of the more capitalized coins, we can distinguish between clusters composed of some of the more popular first-generation cryptocurrencies, and clusters made up of second-generation cryptocurrencies. Alternatively, we construct the network of directed interactions by using the partial correlations of the log-growth rate. This network displays the important centrality of Bitcoin, discloses a core cluster containing a branch with the most capitalized first-generation cryptocurrencies, and emphasizes interesting correspondences between the detected direct pair interactions and specific features of the related currencies. As risk strongly depends on the interaction structure of the cryptocurrency system, these results can be useful for assisting in hedging risks. The inferred network topology suggests fewer probable widespread contagions. Moreover, as the riskier coins do not strongly interact with the others, it is more difficult that they can drive the market to more fragile states.


Assuntos
Ecologia , Probabilidade
17.
Chaos ; 33(9)2023 Sep 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37699118

RESUMO

We investigate the spatial dynamics of two-disease epidemics reaching a three-species cyclic model. Regardless of their species, all individuals are susceptible to being infected with two different pathogens, which spread through person-to-person contact. We consider that the simultaneous presence of multiple infections leads to a synergistic amplification in the probability of host mortality due to complications arising from any of the co-occurring diseases. Employing stochastic simulations, we explore the ramifications of this synergistic coinfection on spatial configurations that emerge from stochastic initial conditions. Under conditions of pronounced synergistic coinfection, we identify the emergence of zones inhabited solely by hosts affected by a singular pathogen. At the boundaries of spatial domains dominated by a single disease, interfaces of coinfected hosts appear. The dynamics of these interfaces are shaped by curvature-driven processes and display a scaling behavior reflective of the topological attributes of the underlying two-dimensional space. As the lethality linked to coinfection diminishes, the evolution of the interface network's spatial dynamics is influenced by fluctuations stemming from waves of coinfection that infiltrate territories predominantly occupied by a single disease. Our analysis extends to quantifying the implications of synergistic coinfection at both the individual and population levels Our outcomes show that organisms' infection risk is maximized if the coinfection increases the death due to disease by 30% and minimized as the network dynamics reach the scaling regime, with species populations being maximum. Our conclusions may help ecologists understand the dynamics of epidemics and their impact on the stability of ecosystems.


Assuntos
Coinfecção , Epidemias , Humanos , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Ecossistema , Probabilidade
18.
Bull Math Biol ; 85(10): 94, 2023 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37658245

RESUMO

In this contribution, a general expression is derived for the probability density of the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of a simple birth-death tree, a widely used stochastic null-model of biological speciation and extinction, conditioned on the constant birth and death rates and number of extant lineages. This density is contrasted with a previous result which was obtained using a uniform prior for the time of origin. The new distribution is applied to two problems of phylogenetic interest. First, that of the probability of the number of taxa existing at any time in the past in a tree of a known number of extant species, and given birth and death rates, and second, that of determining the TMRCA of two randomly selected taxa in an unobserved tree that is produced by a simple birth-only, or Yule, process. In the latter case, it is assumed that only the rate of bifurcation (speciation) and the size, or number of tips, are known. This is shown to lead to a closed-form analytical expression for the probability distribution of this parameter, which is arrived at based on the known mathematical form of the age distribution of Yule trees of a given size and branching rate, which is derived here de novo, and a similar distribution which additionally is conditioned on tree age. The new distribution is the exact Yule prior for divergence times of pairs of taxa under the stated conditions and is potentially useful in statistical (Bayesian) inference studies of phylogenies.


Assuntos
Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Teorema de Bayes , Filogenia , Probabilidade
19.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 13291, 2023 08 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37587164

RESUMO

Many species used in behavioral studies are small vertebrates with high metabolic rates and potentially enhanced temporal resolution of perception. Nevertheless, the selection of an appropriate scales to evaluate behavioral dynamics has received little attention. Herein, we studied the temporal organization of behaviors at fine-grain (i.e. sampling interval ≤1s) to gain insight into dynamics and to rethink how behavioral events are defined. We statistically explored high-resolution Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) datasets encompassing 17 defined behaviors. We show that for the majority of these behaviors, events last predominately <300ms and can be shorter than 70ms. Insufficient sampling resolution, even in the order of 1s, of behaviors that involve spatial displacement (e.g. walking) yields distorted probability distributions of event durations and overestimation of event durations. Contrarily, behaviors without spatial displacement (e.g. vigilance) maintain non-Gaussian, power-law-type distributions indicative of long-term memory, independently of the sampling resolution evaluated. Since data probability distributions reflect underlying biological processes, our results highlight the importance of quantification of behavioral dynamics based on the temporal scale pertinent to the species, and data distribution. We propose a hierarchical model that links diverse types of behavioral definitions and distributions, and paves the way towards a statistical framework for defining behaviors.


Assuntos
Coturnix , Pesquisa , Animais , Grão Comestível , Memória de Longo Prazo , Probabilidade
20.
PLoS One ; 18(8): e0290734, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37624801

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The effect of teaching hospital status on cardiovascular surgery has been of common interest in recent decades, yet its magnitude on heart valve replacement is still a matter of debate. Given the ethical and practical unfeasibility of randomly assigning a patient to such an exposure, we use the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to assess this marginal effect on the survival of Colombian patients who underwent a first heart valve replacement between 2016 and 2019. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on administrative records. The time-to-death event and cumulative incidences of death, readmission, and reoperation are presented as outcomes. An artificial sample is configured through IPTW, adjusting for sociodemographic variables, comorbidities, technique, and intervention weight. RESULTS: Of a sample of 3,517 patients, 1,051 (29.9%) were operated on in a teaching hospital. The median age was 65.0 (18.1-91.5), 38.5% of patients were ≤60, and 6.9% were ≥80. The cumulative incidences of death at 30, 90 days, and one year were 5.9%, 8%, and 10.9%, respectively. Furthermore, 23.5% of the patients were readmitted within 90 days and 3.6% underwent reintervention within one year. The odds of 30-day mortality are lower for patients operated in a teaching hospital (OR 0.51; 95% CI 0.29-0.92); however, no effect on survival was identified in terms of time-to-event of death (HR 1.07; 95%CI 0.78-1.46). CONCLUSIONS: After IPTW, the odds of 30-day mortality are lower for patients operated in a teaching hospital. There was no effect on survival, 90-day or one-year mortality, 90-day readmission, or one-year reintervention. Together, we offer an opening for investigating an exposure that has yet to be explored in Latin America with potential value to understand teaching hospitals as the essential nature of reality of an academic-clinical synergy.


Assuntos
Hospitais de Ensino , Idoso , Humanos , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Probabilidade , Reoperação , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estudos de Coortes
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