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1.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34207999

RESUMO

For most signalized at-grade intersections, exclusive lanes for non-motorized vehicles have been applied to improve the level of service, capacity and safety of both motorized vehicles and non-motorized vehicles. However, because of various factors, riders of non-motorized vehicles have been observed using lanes for motorized vehicles instead of lanes for non-motorized vehicles, which usually negatively influences the performance of signalized intersections and sometimes may cause serious problems such as traffic congestion and accidents. The objective of this paper is to explore factors influencing the lane choice of riders of non-motorized vehicles at exit legs of signalized at-grade intersections and develop a prediction model for riders' lane choice. Data concerning the lane choice of riders of non-motorized vehicles and other impacting factors were collected at exit legs of four typical signalized at-grade intersections. Applying binary logistic regression, a probability prediction model was developed to explain how various factors influence the lane choice of riders of non-motorized vehicles. The prediction model indicates that female riders of non-motorized vehicles have a higher probability of choosing the lane for non-motorized vehicles than male riders. Compared with riders of non-motorized vehicles powered by electricity, riders of traditional man-powered bicycles are more likely to choose the lane for non-motorized vehicles. Right-turning riders of non-motorized vehicles are more likely to choose the lane for non-motorized vehicles than straight-going riders, who in turn, are more likely to choose the lane for non-motorized vehicles than left-turning riders. Decreasing the volume of non-motorized vehicles, increasing the volume of motorized vehicles, and widening the lane for non-motorized vehicles will increase the probability of the correct choice of lane for non-motorized vehicles. The predictions of the model are in good agreement with the observed facts. The model is meaningful for guidance on the design and management of signalized at-grade intersections.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Perna (Membro) , Acidentes de Trânsito/prevenção & controle , Planejamento Ambiental , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Probabilidade , Segurança
2.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(13)2021 Jun 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34203466

RESUMO

Remote sensing technologies have been widely used in the contexts of land cover and land use. The image classification algorithms used in remote sensing are of paramount importance since the reliability of the result from remote sensing depends heavily on the classification accuracy. Parametric classifiers based on traditional statistics have successfully been used in remote sensing classification, but the accuracy is greatly impacted and rather constrained by the statistical distribution of the sensing data. To eliminate those constraints, new variants of support vector machine (SVM) are introduced. In this paper, we propose and implement land use classification based on improved SVM-enabled radial basis function (RBF) and SVM-Linear for image sensing. The proposed variants are applied for the cross-validation to determine how the optimization of parameters can affect the accuracy. The accuracy assessment includes both training and test sets, addressing the problems of overfitting and underfitting. Furthermore, it is not trivial to determine the generalization problem merely based on a training dataset. Thus, the improved SVM-RBF and SVM-Linear also demonstrate the outstanding generalization performance. The proposed SVM-RBF and SVM-Linear variants have been compared with the traditional algorithms (Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) and Minimum Distance Classifier (MDC)), which are highly compatible with remote sensing images. Furthermore, the MLC and MDC are mathematically modeled and characterized with new features. Also, we compared the proposed improved SVM-RBF and SVM-Linear with the current state-of-the-art algorithms. Based on the results, it is confirmed that proposed variants have higher overall accuracy, reliability, and fault-tolerance than traditional as well as latest state-of-the-art algorithms.


Assuntos
Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Máquina de Vetores de Suporte , Algoritmos , Probabilidade , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
3.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 4313, 2021 07 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34262041

RESUMO

How a history of influenza virus infections contributes to protection is not fully understood, but such protection might explain the contrasting age distributions of cases of the two lineages of influenza B, B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. Fitting a statistical model to those distributions using surveillance data from New Zealand, we found they could be explained by historical changes in lineage frequencies combined with cross-protection between strains of the same lineage. We found additional protection against B/Yamagata in people for whom it was their first influenza B infection, similar to the immune imprinting observed in influenza A. While the data were not informative about B/Victoria imprinting, B/Yamagata imprinting could explain the fewer B/Yamagata than B/Victoria cases in cohorts born in the 1990s and the bimodal age distribution of B/Yamagata cases. Longitudinal studies can test if these forms of protection inferred from historical data extend to more recent strains and other populations.


Assuntos
Vírus da Influenza B/imunologia , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Influenza Humana/imunologia , Distribuição por Idade , Proteção Cruzada , Humanos , Memória Imunológica , Vírus da Influenza B/classificação , Influenza Humana/virologia , Modelos Estatísticos , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia , Probabilidade
5.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(14)2021 Jul 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34300526

RESUMO

To better understand the behavior of attackers and describe the network state, we construct an LSTM-DT model for network security situation awareness, which provides risk assessment indicators and quantitative methods. This paper introduces the concept of attack probability, making prediction results more consistent with the actual network situation. The model is focused on the problem of the time sequence of network security situation assessment by using the decision tree algorithm (DT) and long short-term memory(LSTM) network. The biggest innovation of this paper is to change the description of the network situation in the original dataset. The original label only has attack and normal. We put forward a new idea which regards attack as a possibility, obtaining the probability of each attack, and describing the network situation by combining the occurrence probability and attack impact. Firstly, we determine the network risk assessment indicators through the dataset feature distribution, and we give the network risk assessment index a corresponding weight based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Then, the stack sparse auto-encoder (SSAE) is used to learn the characteristics of the original dataset. The attack probability can be predicted by the processed dataset by using the LSTM network. At the same time, the DT algorithm is applied to identify attack types. Finally, we draw the corresponding curve according to the network security situation value at each time. Experiments show that the accuracy of the network situation awareness method proposed in this paper can reach 95%, and the accuracy of attack recognition can reach 87%. Compared with the former research results, the effect is better in describing complex network environment problems.


Assuntos
Conscientização , Redes Neurais de Computação , Algoritmos , Memória de Longo Prazo , Probabilidade
6.
Poult Sci ; 100(8): 101187, 2021 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34198100

RESUMO

Identifying daily oviposition events for individual broiler breeders is important for bird management. Identifying non-laying birds in a flock that might be caused by improper nutrition or diseases can guide diet changes or disease treatments for these individuals. Oviposition depends on follicle maturation and egg formation, and follicle maturation can be variable. As such, the day and time of oviposition events of individual birds in a free-run flock can be hard to predict. Based on a precision feeding (PF) system that can record the feeding activity of individual birds, a recent study reported a machine learning model to predict daily egg-laying events of broiler breeders. However, there were 2 limitations in that study: 1) It could only be used to identify daily egg-laying events on a subsequent day; 2) The prediction outputs that were binary labels were unable to indicate more details among the outputs with the same label. To improve the previous approach, the current study aimed to predict and output the probability of daily oviposition events occurring using a specific time point in 1 day. In the current study, 706 egg-laying events recorded by nest boxes with radio frequency identification of hens and 706 randomly selected no-egg-laying events were used. The anchor point was newly defined in the current study as a specific time point in 1 day, and 26 features around the anchor point were created for all events (706 egg-laying events and 706 no-egg-laying events). A feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) model was built for prediction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.9409, indicating that the model had an outstanding classification performance. The ANN model could predict oviposition events on the current day, and the output was a probability that could be informative to indicate the likelihood of an oviposition event for an individual breeder. In situations where total egg production was known for a group, the ANN model could predict the probability of daily oviposition events occurring of all individual birds and then rank them to choose those most likely to have laid an egg.


Assuntos
Galinhas , Oviposição , Ração Animal , Animais , Feminino , Redes Neurais de Computação , Probabilidade
7.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(12)2021 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34207104

RESUMO

This paper studies the cell-edge user's performance of a secure multiple-input single-output non-orthogonal multiple-access (MISO-NOMA) system under the Rayleigh fading channel in the presence of an eavesdropper. We suppose a worst-case scenario that an eavesdropper has ideal user detection ability. In particular, we suggest an optimization-based beamforming scheme with MISO-NOMA to improve the security and outage probability of a cell-edge user while maintaining the quality of service of the near-user and degrading the performance of the eavesdropper. To this end, power allocation coefficients are adjusted with the help of target data rates of both the users by utilizing a simultaneous wireless information and power transfer with time switching/power splitting protocol, where the near-user is used to forward the information to cell-edge user. The analytical results demonstrate that our beamformer analysis can achieve reduced outage probability of cell-edge user in the presence of the eavesdropper. Moreover, the provided simulation results validate our theoretical analysis and show that our approach improves the overall performance of a two-user cooperative MISO-NOMA system.


Assuntos
Noma , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Probabilidade
8.
Exp Clin Psychopharmacol ; 29(3): 219-228, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34264734

RESUMO

As fatal overdoses from synthetic opioids continue to rise, we need to understand decision-making processes underlying heroin and synthetic opioid use. This study evaluated the influence of sample impurity and fatal overdose risk on hypothetical heroin use. Individuals who currently use heroin (n = 69) were recruited online. Participants completed two probability-discounting tasks evaluating the likelihood of using a sample of heroin based on the likelihood of sample impurity and likelihood of fatal overdose, where greater discounting represented reduced use likelihood. Prior to completing the probability-discounting tasks, participants were randomized to read one of four prompts varying by the presence of information on heroin effects and active (e.g., fentanyl) or inert impurities. Influence of prompts on discounting processes and associations among probability-discounting measures, opioid use behaviors, and dependence severity were evaluated. Heroin use likelihood decreased with increased impurity or overdose risk and in a generally orderly fashion. Discounting was greater (i.e., reduced heroin use likelihood) when overdose risk, compared to sample impurity, was manipulated. Less discounting was associated with more severe opioid dependence. Discounting did not differ among prompts for either task. Individuals might adjust their heroin-use behavior to reduce harm with risk-related information. Greater discounting elicited by overdose relative to impurity risk suggests that equating adulteration and overdose risk is essential for harm reduction. Expanded access to drug checking services, which inform impurity and overdose risk, can reduce fatal overdoses. Due to fear of legal sanctions for these services, legislation and judicial decisions should explicitly protect these services. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).


Assuntos
Analgésicos Opioides/envenenamento , Atitude Frente a Morte , Contaminação de Medicamentos/estatística & dados numéricos , Overdose de Drogas/psicologia , Fentanila/envenenamento , Dependência de Heroína/psicologia , Adulto , Feminino , Redução do Dano , Heroína , Humanos , Masculino , Probabilidade , Risco
9.
World J Surg Oncol ; 19(1): 222, 2021 Jul 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34311741

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Surgical resection (SR) has been selectively applied in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presenting with minor gross vascular invasion (mGVI) which is defined when tumor invasion is confined to second-order portal branches or segmental branches of hepatic vein. However, little data of long-term outcomes are available for supporting the role of SR as a potentially curable therapeutic option for HCC presenting with mGVI. This study is aimed to estimate a statistical cure fraction and the improvement of recurrence-free conditional survival (RFCS) over time among patients undergoing SR for HCC presenting with mGVI. METHODS: The literature search was conducted focusing on previous studies that investigated the long-term survival rates of patients after SR for HCC presenting with mGVI. The reference cohort was extracted from a study including patients undergoing SR for HCC without vascular invasion. A non-mixture cure model was adopted to estimate the statistical cure fraction. The 5-year RFCS probabilities were also calculated. RESULTS: Three retrospective studies were secondarily analyzed. The probability of being statistically cured after SR for HCC presenting with mGVI was 7.3% (95% confidence interval, 4.4%-11.2%) in the mGVI group, lower than that of the reference cohort (hazard ratio, 1.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.59-2.05). The estimated 5-year RFCS probabilities improved with each additional year of survival. Moreover, 1 year after SR, the 5-year RFCS probabilities of patients with HCC presenting with mGVI was essentially the same as that of the reference cohort. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that a cure can be expected in around seven percent of patients undergoing SR for HCC presenting with mGVI. Furthermore, recurrence-free survival expectancy improves dramatically over time among those patients who do not have recurrence. Overall, these findings suggest that SR should be considered as a potentially curable treatment for patients with HCC presenting with mGVI.


Assuntos
Carcinoma Hepatocelular , Neoplasias Hepáticas , Carcinoma Hepatocelular/cirurgia , Hepatectomia , Humanos , Neoplasias Hepáticas/cirurgia , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/cirurgia , Probabilidade , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos
10.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(13)2021 Jun 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34201901

RESUMO

In this paper, we investigated the performance of a two-way satellite-terrestrial DF relay network with asymmetric simultaneous wireless information and power transfer (SWIPT). In particular, selective physical-layer network coding (SPNC) was employed in the proposed network, improving the throughput performance. We derived the expressions of system average end-to-end throughput and single node detection (SND) occurrence probability. Furthermore, to observe the effects of the power splitting (PS) coefficient on the energy efficiency performance, the expressions of energy harvested in the physical-layer network coding (PNC) and SPNC protocol were also derived. Finally, theoretical analyses and Monte Carlo simulation results are presented to show: (i) SPNC protocol outperforms the conventional PNC protocol in the two-way satellite-terrestrial relay network with SWIPT in infrequent light shadowing (ILS), average shadowing (AS), and frequent heavy shadowing (FHS) Shadowed-Rician fading channels; (ii) as the channel state gets worse, SPNC protocol can achieve more performance improvement than PNC protocol; (iii) as the PS coefficient increases, the average end-to-end throughput performance increases progressively, and the average energy efficiency performance increases progressively within a certain range, while decreasing in the others.


Assuntos
Redes de Comunicação de Computadores , Tecnologia sem Fio , Algoritmos , Simulação por Computador , Probabilidade
11.
Sheng Wu Yi Xue Gong Cheng Xue Za Zhi ; 38(3): 512-519, 2021 Jun 25.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34180197

RESUMO

Vision is an important way for human beings to interact with the outside world and obtain information. In order to research human visual behavior under different conditions, this paper uses a Gaussian mixture-hidden Markov model (GMM-HMM) to model the scanpath, and proposes a new model optimization method, time-shifting segmentation (TSS). The TSS method can highlight the characteristics of the time dimension in the scanpath, improve the pattern recognition results, and enhance the stability of the model. In this paper, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) method is used for multi-dimensional feature pattern recognition to evaluates the rationality and the accuracy of the proposed model. Four sets of comparative trials were carried out for the model evaluation. The first group applied the GMM-HMM to model the scanpath, and the average accuracy of the classification could reach 0.507, which is greater than the opportunity probability of three classification (0.333). The second set of trial applied TSS method, and the mean accuracy of classification was raised to 0.610. The third group combined GMM-HMM with TSS method, and the mean accuracy of classification reached 0.602, which was more stable than the second model. Finally, comparing the model analysis results with the saccade amplitude (SA) characteristics analysis results, the modeling analysis method is much better than the basic information analysis method. Via analyzing the characteristics of three types of tasks, the results show that the free viewing task have higher specificity value and a higher sensitivity to the cued object search task. In summary, the application of GMM-HMM model has a good performance in scanpath pattern recognition, and the introduction of TSS method can enhance the difference of scanpath characteristics. Especially for the recognition of the scanpath of search-type tasks, the model has better advantages. And it also provides a new solution for a single state eye movement sequence.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Movimentos Oculares , Análise Discriminante , Humanos , Cadeias de Markov , Distribuição Normal , Probabilidade
12.
Trials ; 22(1): 420, 2021 Jun 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34187527

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The SAVVY project aims to improve the analyses of adverse events (AEs), whether prespecified or emerging, in clinical trials through the use of survival techniques appropriately dealing with varying follow-up times and competing events (CEs). Although statistical methodologies have advanced, in AE analyses, often the incidence proportion, the incidence density, or a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimator are used, which ignore either censoring or CEs. In an empirical study including randomized clinical trials from several sponsor organizations, these potential sources of bias are investigated. The main purpose is to compare the estimators that are typically used to quantify AE risk within trial arms to the non-parametric Aalen-Johansen estimator as the gold-standard for estimating cumulative AE probabilities. A follow-up paper will consider consequences when comparing safety between treatment groups. METHODS: Estimators are compared with descriptive statistics, graphical displays, and a more formal assessment using a random effects meta-analysis. The influence of different factors on the size of deviations from the gold-standard is investigated in a meta-regression. Comparisons are conducted at the maximum follow-up time and at earlier evaluation times. CEs definition does not only include death before AE but also end of follow-up for AEs due to events related to the disease course or safety of the treatment. RESULTS: Ten sponsor organizations provided 17 clinical trials including 186 types of investigated AEs. The one minus Kaplan-Meier estimator was on average about 1.2-fold larger than the Aalen-Johansen estimator and the probability transform of the incidence density ignoring CEs was even 2-fold larger. The average bias using the incidence proportion was less than 5%. Assuming constant hazards using incidence densities was hardly an issue provided that CEs were accounted for. The meta-regression showed that the bias depended mainly on the amount of censoring and on the amount of CEs. CONCLUSIONS: The choice of the estimator of the cumulative AE probability and the definition of CEs are crucial. We recommend using the Aalen-Johansen estimator with an appropriate definition of CEs whenever the risk for AEs is to be quantified and to change the guidelines accordingly.


Assuntos
Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Probabilidade , Análise de Sobrevida
13.
Gen Dent ; 69(4): 70-74, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34185672

RESUMO

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between antineoplastic treatments and oral complications in patients with head and neck cancer. Medical records from 400 patients treated at a cancer center were analyzed. Univariable analysis was initially performed to verify the association between the variables and the presence of oral complications. Multivariable analysis was performed using multiple linear regression to assess the association between the type of treatment performed and the presence and types of oral complications. The medical records of 290 patients included information about the presence or absence of oral complications of therapy, and 199 of these patients experienced oral complications. An average of 1 oral complication per patient was found; 104 patients experienced 1 complication, 74 patients experienced 2 complications, and 21 patients experienced 3 or 4 complications. Oral complications were correlated with tobacco use (P = 0.01), alcohol use (P = 0.006), radiotherapy (P = 0.000), and chemotherapy (P = 0.028). The association between oral complications and radiotherapy was greater than the association between oral complications and chemotherapy, but the risk increased when both therapies were performed (odds ratio [OR] = 4.41; P = 0.004). Mucositis was associated with both radiotherapy and chemotherapy, and the incidence increased when both types of treatment were combined (OR = 5.28; P = 0.001). Oral complications of antineoplastic therapy are related to lifestyle habits and treatment modalities. Clinicians should educate patients with head and neck cancer about the role of lifestyle habits in possible adverse treatment effects and consider a more careful approach to follow-up care of patients who are undergoing both radiotherapy and chemotherapy.


Assuntos
Antineoplásicos , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Estomatite , Antineoplásicos/efeitos adversos , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/radioterapia , Humanos , Probabilidade
17.
Molecules ; 26(11)2021 May 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34067234

RESUMO

There is consistent evidence that long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (LCPUFA) belonging to the n-3 series, i.e., eicosapentaenoic (20:5n-3, EPA) and docosahexaenoic (22:6n-3, DHA) acids, decrease the risk of heart, circulatory and inflammatory diseases. Furthermore, the bioavailability of such fatty acids has been shown to depend on their location in triacylglycerol (TG) molecules at the sn-2 position. Consequently, great attention has been accorded to the synthesis of structured acylglycerols (sAG), which include EPA or DHA at the sn-2 position. The aim of this work was to synthesize sAG starting from deodorized refined commercial salmon oil. For this, immobilized lipase B from Candida antarctica (nonspecific) was used as a catalyst for the intra-interesterification process under CO2 supercritical conditions (CO2SC). According to the CO2SC reaction time, three different fractions including sAG compounds were obtained. The location of EPA and DHA at the sn-2 position in the resulting glycerol backbone was identified by mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF) analysis. In all fractions obtained, a marked decrease in the starting TG content was observed, while an increase in the DHA content at the sn-2 position was detected. The fraction obtained after the longest reaction time period (2 h) led to the highest yield of sn-2 position DHA in the resulting sAG molecule.


Assuntos
Ácidos Docosa-Hexaenoicos/química , Ácido Eicosapentaenoico/química , Óleos de Peixe/química , Glicerídeos/síntese química , Triglicerídeos/química , Animais , Basidiomycota , Catálise , Técnicas de Química Analítica , Chile , Cromatografia em Camada Delgada , Esterificação , Ésteres/química , Ácidos Graxos/química , Humanos , Hidrólise , Lipase/química , Lipídeos/química , Espectrometria de Massas , Probabilidade , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Alimentos Marinhos/análise , Espectrometria de Massas por Ionização e Dessorção a Laser Assistida por Matriz
18.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(5)2021 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34059494

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The measurement of progress towards many Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and other health goals requires accurate and timely all-cause and cause of death (COD) data. However, existing guidance to countries to calculate these indicators is inadequate for populations with incomplete death registration and poor-quality COD data. We introduce a replicable method to estimate national and subnational cause-specific mortality rates (and hence many such indicators) where death registration is incomplete by integrating data from Medical Certificates of Cause of Death (MCCOD) for hospital deaths with routine verbal autopsy (VA) for community deaths. METHODS: The integration method calculates population-level cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) from the CSMFs of MCCODs and VAs weighted by estimated deaths in hospitals and the community. Estimated deaths are calculated by applying the empirical completeness method to incomplete death registration/reporting. The resultant cause-specific mortality rates are used to estimate SDG Indicator 23: mortality between ages 30 and 70 years from cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes. We demonstrate the method using nationally representative data in Myanmar, comprising over 42 000 VAs and 7600 MCCODs. RESULTS: In Myanmar in 2019, 89% of deaths were estimated to occur in the community. VAs comprised an estimated 70% of community deaths. Both the proportion of deaths in the community and CSMFs for the four causes increased with older age. We estimated that the probability of dying from any of the four causes between 30 and 70 years was 0.265 for men and 0.216 for women. This indicator is 50% higher if based on CSMFs from the integration of data sources than on MCCOD data from hospitals. CONCLUSION: This integration method facilitates country authorities to use their data to monitor progress with national and subnational health goals, rather than rely on estimates made by external organisations. The method is particularly relevant given the increasing application of routine VA in country Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems.


Assuntos
Objetivos , Adulto , Idoso , Autopsia , Causas de Morte , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mianmar , Probabilidade
19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34070114

RESUMO

Creative thinking is a defining human feature. It provides novel solutions and as such undoubtedly has contributed to our survival. However, according to signaling theory, creativity could also have evolved through sexual selection as a potential fitness indicator. In our study, we tested one implication of this theory. Specifically, we hypothesized that if creativity can serve as a signal of women's fitness, then we should observe an increase in creative thinking in the fertile phase of the ovulatory cycle compared to other non-fertile phases. In our study (N = 751), we tested creative potential throughout the ovulatory cycle. We found a positive correlation between the probability of conception and both creative originality and flexibility. Importantly, we also tested the mediating role of arousal in the relationship between the probability of conception and creative thinking. The results of our study are discussed in terms of signaling theory, through which women advertise their fitness with their creativity.


Assuntos
Criatividade , Fertilidade , Feminino , Humanos , Probabilidade
20.
Accid Anal Prev ; 158: 106203, 2021 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34087505

RESUMO

Identifying factors that are associated with the probability of roadside work zone collisions enables decision makers to better assess and control the risk of scheduling a particular maintenance or construction activity by modifying the characteristics of the operation. This can be achieved by studying the effect of work zone properties on the risk of roadside work zone collisions. Much of the existing work in this area is based on data in the police traffic collision reports, which do not include data on the characteristics of the work zone itself. This paper develops a comprehensive data set of 42 features describing time, location, work zone characteristics, traffic volume, and road properties. Using recent machine learning techniques such as extreme gradient boosting classifiers on this extensive set of features allows for more accurate analysis to identify factors that affect the risk of work zone collisions or indicate higher than baseline chances of a roadside crash. Our statistical analysis reveals 10 important features and shows that four of these features are significantly associated with higher probabilities of roadside work zone collisions.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trânsito , Aprendizado de Máquina , Acidentes de Trânsito/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Polícia , Probabilidade
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