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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 855: 158766, 2023 Jan 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36116669

RESUMO

The Covid-19 crisis has caused several social-related issues; the sanitary is, perhaps, the most significant one. Lockdowns and vaccination were implemented to fight the Covid-19 virus. From a sustainability perspective, Covid-19 has been considered a meaningful crisis driver that has affected nations' economies and social and natural capitals. The literature presents clues that effects appear to be different among countries. Recognizing its importance as public policies for sustainability, this study aims to assess how the sustainability of countries has changed after Covid-19, focusing on countries' economic power that reflects their capacity to face the crisis. A sample of 89 countries is considered, and 2019-2020 are set as base years for data gathering, which covers the first year of the Covid-19 crisis. Sustainability is conceptually supported and represented by a 3-D cube. The natural environment is expressed by the ecological footprint (EF) method, the economic capital by the gross domestic product (GDP), and the social capital by the happiness index. Results show that sustainability of economies was negatively affected after first year of Covid-19 crisis, but in different magnitudes, according to nations' economic power. While the sustainability of the wealthiest economies was slightly changed during 2019-2020 but maintained within the named 'useful-order' world (environmentally unsustainable, productive, and happy), the poorest economies pushed about 169 million people into the worst performance, reaching the 'ineffective' world (environmentally unsustainable, unproductive, and unhappy). Numbers highlight the inequalities of sustainability performance among countries, according to their capacity to face the Covid-19 crisis. The shield of the richest evaluated countries comprising 5 % of the world population is more powerful than the shield of the poorest evaluated countries carrying 67 % of the world population. Results claims for efforts to make different policies and provide economic support differently for countries, since although we are all under the same storm, but in different boats.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Produto Interno Bruto , Meio Ambiente
2.
J. Health Biol. Sci. (Online) ; 10(1): 1-7, 01/jan./2022.
Artigo em Português | LILACS | ID: biblio-1361634

RESUMO

Objetivo: aplicar a modelagem logística da primeira onda da COVID-19, com índice nos países com 20 maiores Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Métodos: foi utilizada a modelagem matemática de crescimento logístico, considerando os seguintes parâmetros: número cumulativo de casos (C), tamanho final da epidemia na onda única de um surto (K), taxa intrínseca de crescimento (y) e tempo de inflexão (τ). Resultados: o Brasil apresentou maior número de casos e mortalidade, e os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) maior número de casos absolutos. A Coreia do Sul evidenciou o menor ponto de inflexão de 15,3 dias, enquanto o maior foi da Indonésia, com 213,9 dias. Na análise entre o ponto de inflexão e casos acumulados (/100 mil habitantes), observou-se correlação positiva moderada significativa (r=0,629 e p=0,003); (r=0,532 e p=0,016). Conclusão: o reconhecimento do comportamento de uma epidemia por meio da modelagem matemática torna possível determinar a propagação de uma epidemia, visto que, com a possibilidade de captar a dinâmica de uma epidemia, torna-se possível prever a necessidade de medidas públicas antecipadas e, consequentemente, diminuição da mortalidade global.


Objective: to apply logistic modeling of the first wave of COVID-19 in countries with the 20 highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Methods: logistic growth mathematical modeling was used, considering the following parameters: cumulative number of cases (C), the final size of the epidemic in the single wave of an outbreak (K), intrinsic growth rate (y), and inflection time (τ). Results: Brazil showed the highest number of cases and mortality, and the United States of America (USA) had the highest number of absolute cases. South Korea showed the lowest inflection point of 15.3 days, while the highest infection point was Indonesia, with 213.9 days. In the analysis between the inflection point and cumulative cases (/100,000 population), a moderate significant positive correlation was observed (r=0.629 and p=0.003); (r=0.532 and p=0.016). Conclusion: the recognition of the behavior of an epidemic through mathematical modeling makes it possible to determine the spread of an epidemic, since, with the possibility of capturing the dynamics of an epidemic, it becomes possible to predict the need for anticipated public measures and, consequently, decrease in overall mortality.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Modelos Logísticos , Produto Interno Bruto , Epidemias
3.
Front Public Health ; 10: 1005060, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36339222

RESUMO

In the current times, the global economies and international organizations declared that pollution is one of the prominent causes of declined human health. Still, most literature is biased toward economic sustainability and ignores such vital issues. The current study tends to identify the factors affecting public health in the Group of Seven economies except for Italy (G6). Specifically, this study aims to investigate the influence of household waste (HHW), bureaucratic quality (BQ), democratic accountability (DA), urbanization growth (URP), GDP per capita, and renewable energy use (EPR) on public health, throughout 1996-2020. This study uses advanced panel data approaches and finds the heterogeneity of slope coefficients, the dependence of cross-sections, and the persistence of cointegration between the variables. The asymmetric distribution of data leads to employing the novel method of moment quantile regression. The estimated results reveal that URP, GDPPC, and EPR significantly increase domestic general government health expenditures, improving public health. However, HHW and BQ adversely affect public health by reducing health expenditures. The robustness of the results is tested via utilizing the panel quantile regression. Based on the empirical findings, this study suggests policies regarding the improvement in public health expenditure, R&D investment, spending in renewable energy sector, and strengthening of the institutional quality.


Assuntos
Gastos em Saúde , Saúde Pública , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Serviços de Saúde , Investimentos em Saúde
5.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0277433, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36355854

RESUMO

Urban scaling analysis has shown that various aggregated urban quantities obey power-law relationships with the population size. Despite the rapid progress, direct empirical evidence that shows how the power-law exponents ß depend on the spatial organization of the GDP has been lacking. Moreover, urban scaling studies are hardly reproduced in developing countries due to inadequate official statistics. We tackle these issues by performing urban scaling analysis on Indonesian cities using globally harmonized functional cities delineations and global-scale gridded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) datasets. First, we observe that the GDP and area of Indonesian cities scale linearly with the population size. For GDP in particular, the deviations from the scaling law follow a geographical pattern. Second, we determine the economic hotspots in each city and observe that the area of the hotspots scales mildly sublinear with the population size. Surprisingly, the GDP of hotspots also scales sublinearly with the population size, indicating a lack of increasing returns due to scaling. Third, by classifying the cities based on the spatial organization of the GDP in two dimensions (heterogeneity and spatial dispersion) and examining the scaling exponents of each class, we discover a non-trivial relation between scaling behavior and the spatial organization of the GDP. Spatial dispersion strongly affects the scaling behavior in heterogeneous cities, while such effect is weakened for homogeneous cities. Finally, we find that the scaling effect in terms of economies of scale (sublinearity of area) and increasing returns (superlinearity of GDP) is stronger for Indonesian cities with spatially compact GDP distribution.


Assuntos
Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Cidades , Indonésia , Densidade Demográfica , População Urbana
6.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36360863

RESUMO

Background: As of 7 January 2022, it is estimated that 5.5 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19. Although the full impact of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on healthcare systems worldwide is still unknown, we must consider the socio-economic impact. For instance, it has resulted in an 11% decrease in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the European Union. We aim to provide valuable information for policymakers by analysing widely available epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators using Spanish data. Methods: Secondary analysis of routinely available data from various official data sources covering the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 March 2021. To measure the impact of COVID-19 in the population, a set of epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators were used. The interrelationships between these socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators were analysed using Pearson's correlation. Their behaviour was grouped according to their greater capacity to measure the impact of the pandemic and was compared to identify those that are more appropriate to monitor future health crises (primary outcome) using multivariate analysis of canonical correlation for estimating the correlation between indicators using different units of analysis. Results: Data from different time points were analysed. The excess of mortality was negatively correlated with the number of new companies created during the pandemic. The increase in COVID-19 cases was associated with the rise of unemployed workers. Neither GDP nor per capita debt was related to any epidemiological indicators considered in the annual analysis. The canonical models of socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators of each of the time periods analysed were statistically significant (0.80-0.91 p < 0.05). Conclusions: In conclusion, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, excess mortality, incidence, lethality, and unemployment constituted the best group of indicators to measure the impact of the pandemic. These indicators, widely available, could provide valuable information to policymakers and higher management in future outbreaks.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , Espanha/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Produto Interno Bruto
7.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36361338

RESUMO

We evaluated the influence of population size (POP), HDI (Human Development Index) and GDP (gross domestic product) on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southeast region of Brazil, between February 2020 and May 2021. METHODS: Cases, deaths, incidence coefficient, mortality rate and lethality rate were compared among states. The cities were divided into strata according to POP, GDP, and HDI. Data were compared by Welch's ANOVA, nonlinear polynomial regression, and Spearman's correlation test (rS). RESULTS: The highest incidence coefficient (p < 0.0001) and mortality rate (p < 0.05) were observed in the states of Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Until the 45th week, the higher the POP, the higher the mortality rate (p < 0.01), with no differences in the remaining period (p > 0.05). There was a strong positive correlation between POP size and the number of cases (rS = 0.92, p < 0.0001) and deaths (rS = 0.88, p < 0.0001). The incidence coefficient and mortality rate were lower (p < 0.0001) for low GDP cities. Both coefficients were higher in high- and very high HDI cities (p < 0.0001). The lethality rate was higher in the state of Rio de Janeiro (p < 0.0001), in large cities (p < 0.0001), in cities with medium GDP (p < 0.0001), and in those with high HDI (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Both incidence and mortality were affected by time, with minimal influence of POP, GDP and HDI.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Densidade Demográfica , Brasil/epidemiologia , Pandemias
8.
Front Public Health ; 10: 954080, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36388351

RESUMO

There are numerous factors that affect human health. Among others, environmental degradation, bad governance, and extensive economic growth are regarded as more destructive for health-related issues. To explore the nexus of the said factors and extend the scholarly literature, the current study aims to analyze the influence of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, governance indicators, and gross domestic product (GDP) on human health expenditures-captured by domestic health expenditures and capital health expenditures. Specifically, this study contrasted variables including regulatory quality (RQ), rule of law (RL), GDP, GHG emissions, and human capital (HC) with that of human health expenditure. Covering the period from 1996 to 2020, this study uses time series specifications in the case of China, which is one of the largest pollution-emitting economies across the globe. The empirical results found that the long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the variables. For the long-run coefficients, this study utilizes the fully modified ordinary least square, dynamic ordinary least square, and canonical cointegration regression, suggesting that economic development and RQ are adversely affecting human health expenditure. However, GHG emissions, RQ, and HC significantly improve human health by increasing health expenditure in China. Based on the empirical results, policies are suggested regarding human health improvement, improved governance quality, and environmental sustainability. The study discusses the empirical conclusions and implications as per COP26 declarations.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Poluição Ambiental/análise , China
9.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0278071, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36417448

RESUMO

The stress placed on global power supply systems by the growing demand for electricity has been steadily increasing in recent years. Thus, accurate forecasting of energy demand and consumption is essential to maintain the lifestyle and economic standards of nations sustainably. However, multiple factors, including climate change, affect the energy demands of local, national, and global power grids. Therefore, effective analysis of multivariable data is required for the accurate estimation of energy demand and consumption. In this context, some studies have suggested that LSTM and CNN models can be used to model electricity demand accurately. However, existing works have utilized training based on either electricity loads and weather observations or national metrics e.g., gross domestic product, imports, and exports. This binary segregation has degraded forecasting performance. To resolve this shortcoming, we propose a CNN-LSTM model based on a multivariable augmentation approach. Based on previous studies, we adopt 1D convolution and pooling to extract undiscovered features from temporal sequences. LSTM outperforms RNN on vanishing gradient problems while retaining its benefits regarding time-series variables. The proposed model exhibits near-perfect forecasting of electricity consumption, outperforming existing models. Further, state-level analysis and training are performed, demonstrating the utility of the proposed methodology in forecasting regional energy consumption. The proposed model outperforms other models in most areas.


Assuntos
Fontes de Energia Elétrica , Eletricidade , Produto Interno Bruto , Previsões
10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36231869

RESUMO

Human well-being in many countries lags behind the gross domestic product (GDP) due to the rapid changes in the socio-economic environment that have occurred for decades. However, the mechanisms behind this complex phenomenon are still unclear. This study revealed the changes in human well-being in China from 1995 to 2017 by revising the genuine progress indicator (GPI) at the national level and further quantified the contribution of interfering factors that have driven the increase in the GPI. The results indicated that: (1) The per capita GPI of China showed an increasing trend with an annual growth rate of 12.43%. The changes in the GPI followed the same pattern as economic development, rather than presenting the phenomenon of economic growth combined with a decline in welfare that has been recorded in some countries and regions. (2) The increase in human well-being was mainly driven by economic growth, but it was most sensitive to social factors. (3) Increasing income inequality and the cost of lost leisure time contributed obvious negative impacts (24.69% and 23.35%, respectively) to the per capita GPI. However, the increase in personal consumption expenditures, the value of domestic labor, ecosystem service value, and net capital growth accelerated the rise in the GPI, with positive contribution rates of 30.69%, 23%, 20.54%, and 20.02%, respectively. (4) The continuous increase in economic investment and the strengthening of social management due to policy adjustments completely counteracted the negative impacts on human well-being, thus leading to a great increase in the per capita GPI. Such insights could provide theoretical support for decision making and policy implementation to improve global human well-being.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Ecossistema , China , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Políticas
11.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(10): e0010826, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36215332

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease that has caused extensive ravages worldwide since being declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Unlike initially predicted by WHO, the incidence and severity of COVID-19 appeared milder in many Low-to-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). To explain this noticeable disparity between countries, many hypotheses, including socio-demographic and geographic factors, have been put forward. This study aimed to estimate the possible association of parasitic diseases with COVID-19 as either protective agents or potential risk factors. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A country-level ecological study using publicly available data of countries was conducted. We conceptualized the true number of COVID-19 infections based on a function of test positivity rate (TPR) and employed linear regression analysis to assess the association between the outcome and parasitic diseases. We considered demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic confounders previously suggested. A notable heterogeneity was observed across WHO regions. The countries in Africa (AFRO) showed the lowest rates of COVID-19 incidence, and the countries in the Americas (AMRO) presented the highest. The multivariable model results were computed using 165 countries, excluding missing values. In the models analyzed, lower COVID-19 incidence rates were consistently observed in malaria-endemic countries, even accounting for potential confounding variables, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the population aged 65 and above, and differences in the duration of COVID-19. However, the other parasitic diseases were not significantly associated with the spread of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study suggests that malaria prevalence is an essential factor that explains variability in the observed incidence of COVID-19 cases at the national level. Potential associations of COVID-19 with schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) are worthy of further investigation but appeared unlikely, based on this analysis, to be critical factors of the variability in COVID-19 epidemic trends. The quality of publicly accessible data and its ecological design constrained our research, with fundamental disparities in monitoring and testing capabilities between countries. Research at the subnational or individual level should be conducted to explore hypotheses further.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Produto Interno Bruto , Fatores de Risco , Solo , Saúde Global
12.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 15757, 2022 09 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36130963

RESUMO

Socioeconomic status has been associated with obesity prevalence increase in both males and females worldwide. We examined the magnitude of the difference between the two relationships and explored the independence of both relationships. Country specific data on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, sex-specific obesity prevalence rates, urbanisation, total calories availability and level of obesity, genetic background accumulation (measured by the Biological State Index, Ibs) were obtained for 191 countries. Curvilinear regressions, bivariate and partial correlations, linear mixed models and multivariate linear regression analyses were used to examine the relationship between GDP and obesity prevalence rates in males and females respectively. Fisher's r-to-z transformation, F-test and R2 increment in multivariate regression were used to compare results for males and females. GDP significantly correlated with sex-specific obesity prevalence rates, but significantly more strongly with male obesity prevalence in bivariate correlation analyses. These relationships remained independent of calories availability, Ibs and urbanization in partial correlation model. Stepwise multiple regression identified that GDP was a significant predictor of obesity prevalence in both sexes. Multivariate stepwise regression showed that, when adding GDP as an obesity prevalence predictor, the absolute increment of R2 in male fit model (0.046) was almost four (4) times greater than the absolute increment in female model fit (0.012). The Stepwise analyses also revealed that 68.0% of male but only 37.4% of female obesity prevalence rates were explained by the total contributing effects of GDP, Ibs, urbanization and calories availability. In both Pearson's r and nonparametric analyses, GDP contributes significantly more to male obesity than to female obesity in both developed and developing countries. GDP also determined the significant regional variation in male, but not female obesity prevalence. GDP may contribute to obesity prevalence significantly more in males than in females regardless of the confounding effects of Ibs, urbanization and calories. This may suggest that aetiologies for female obesity are much more complex than for males and more confounders should be included in the future studies when data are available.


Assuntos
Ingestão de Energia , Obesidade , Feminino , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Masculino , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Obesidade/etiologia , Prevalência , Classe Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos
13.
Environ Sci Technol ; 56(19): 13909-13919, 2022 10 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36126164

RESUMO

To maintain perpetual economic growth, most energy transition scenarios bet on a break in the historical relationship between energy use and gross domestic product (GDP). Practical limits to energy efficiency are overlooked by such scenarios, in particular the fact that high-income individuals tend to buy goods and services that are more energy intensive. Detailed assessments of the energy embodied in regional final consumption are needed to better understand the relationship between energy and GDP. Here, we calculate the energy necessary to produce households and governments' final consumption in 49 world regions in 2017. We correct prices at the sector level and account for the energy embodied in the whole value chain, including capital goods. We find that high-income regions use more energy per unit of final consumption than low-income ones. This result contradicts the common belief that a higher GDP is correlated with a better efficiency and questions the feasibility of mainstream energy transition scenarios based on universal GDP growth.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Renda , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Pobreza
14.
BMJ Glob Health ; 7(9)2022 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36130777

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The scope of the challenge of overweight and obesity (OAO) has not been fully realised globally, in part because much of what is known about the economic impacts of OAO come from high-income countries (HICs) and are not readily comparable due to methodological differences. Our objective is to estimate the current and future national economic impacts of OAO globally. METHODS: We estimated economic impacts of OAO for 161 countries using a cost-of-illness approach. Direct and indirect costs of OAO between 2019 and 2060 were estimated from a societal perspective. We assessed the effect of two hypothetical scenarios of OAO prevalence projections. Country-specific data were sourced from published studies and global databases. RESULTS: The economic impact of OAO in 2019 is estimated at 2.19% of global gross domestic product (GDP) ranging on average from US$20 per capita in Africa to US$872 per capita in the Americas and from US$6 in low-income countries to US$1110 in HICs.If current trends continue, by 2060, the economic impacts from OAO are projected to rise to 3.29% of GDP globally. The biggest increase will be concentrated in lower resource countries with total economic costs increasing by fourfold between 2019 and 2060 in HICs, whereas they increase 12-25 times in low and middle-income countries. Reducing projected OAO prevalence by 5% annually from current trends or keeping it at 2019 levels will translate into average annual reductions of US$429 billion or US$2201 billion in costs, respectively, between 2020 and 2060 globally. CONCLUSION: This study provides novel evidence on the economic impact of OAO across different economic and geographic contexts. Our findings highlight the need for concerted and holistic action to address the global rise in OAO prevalence, to avert the significant risks of inaction and achieve the promise of whole-of-society gains in population well-being.


Assuntos
Obesidade , Sobrepeso , Custos e Análise de Custo , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Renda , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Sobrepeso/epidemiologia
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(35): e2116413119, 2022 08 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35994657

RESUMO

Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing. Here, we provide a first global assessment of regime shifts and stability in the productivity of 1,015 lakes worldwide using trophic state index (TSI) time series derived from satellite imagery. We find that 12.8% of the lakes studied show regime shifts whose signatures are compatible with tipping points, while the number of detected regime shifts from low to high TSI has increased over time. Although our results suggest an overall stable picture for global lake dynamics, the limited instability signatures do not mean that lakes are insensitive to global change. Modeling the interaction between lake climatic, geophysical, and socioeconomic features and their stability properties, we find that the probability of a lake experiencing a tipping point increases with human population density in its catchment, while it decreases as the gross domestic product of that population increases. Our results show how quantifying lake productivity dynamics at a global scale highlights socioeconomic inequalities in conserving natural environments.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Eficiência , Eutrofização , Internacionalidade , Lagos , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Densidade Demográfica , Imagens de Satélites , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores de Tempo
16.
JAMA Health Forum ; 3(4): e220475, 2022 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35977322

RESUMO

Importance: Compassionate use (CU) is a treatment option for patients with serious or life-threatening medical conditions that provides access to locally unlicensed medications (generally free of charge) when all available treatment options have been exhausted and enrollment in a clinical trial is not possible. Objective: To examine the disparity in CU access observed across countries and explore the key driving factors. Design Settings and Participants: This study analyzed all Novartis CU requests (for individual/named patients and cohort programs) received between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2020, and investigated selected country-specific factors for association with request activity. Data analysis was performed from February 2021 to February 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Country-specific request activity was quantified using request counts and rates per million population and examined in stratified and multivariable analyses (negative-binomial regression) for association with the following covariates: existence of local CU regulations and their public availability, clinical trial activity, population size, and gross domestic product. Results: During the 36-month observation period, 31 711 CU requests were received from 110 countries, 23 194 (73%) of which came from only 10 high-income countries. All high-income countries combined accounted for 27 612 (87%) of all requests, while lower-middle-income and low-income countries contributed only 1021 (3%). Of all requests, 29 870 (94%) were from countries with CU regulations made publicly available on the internet, and higher request activity was demonstrated in countries conducting more clinical trials. Presence and public availability of CU regulations, population size, gross domestic product, and clinical trial activity were independently associated with the CU request activity in multivariable analysis. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study analyzing Novartis CU requests over a 3-year period, existence and public availability of CU regulations and local clinical trial activity were positively associated with higher CU request rates. The analysis also identified an association between macroeconomic factors and CU request activity, despite the generally free provision of unlicensed therapeutic products. Similar analyses of other comparable experiences are needed to supplement these initial observations. Ultimately, better understanding of factors associated with CU request activity would translate into improved early access to novel lifesaving products for patients with unmet medical needs around the world.


Assuntos
Ensaios de Uso Compassivo , Cobre , Estudos de Coortes , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Renda
17.
Expert Rev Pharmacoecon Outcomes Res ; 22(8): 1221-1229, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36039794

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe consumption of antidepressants in Brazil through dispensing data from pharmacy retail outlets, in between 2011 and 2017, and explore the relationship between consumption patterns and changing economic context during this period. METHODS: A time-series analysis of dispensing data from pharmacy retail outlets was carried out considering 10 commonly used antidepressants. DDDs/1000 inhabitants/year for each drug were calculated for each quarter. Ttime-series graphs were constructed to analyze the volumes of drugs purchasedRelationship between economic context and consumption was assessed using the following indicators: annual percent change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), public debt (% of GDP), and annual net savings (in billions of Brazilian reais - BRL). RESULTS: Overall consumption of antidepressants increased over the study period despite a sharp fall of -3.55% in annual percent change in GDP, negative net annual savings of -53.568 BRL, and an increase in public debt exceeding 32% of the GDP during the economic crisis of 2015. CONCLUSION: Consumption of antidepressants from pharmacy retail outlets increased even within a context of economic crisis, which may be a reflection of the disease burden in Brazil. Health budget cuts due to the economic crisis may be directing users to out-of-pocket expenses, deepening social inequalities.


Assuntos
Antidepressivos , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Brasil , Produto Interno Bruto , Renda
18.
Pan Afr Med J ; 42: 95, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36034037

RESUMO

Medical research in the United States remains a global reference, endowed with unrivalled financing, a source of endless advancements, and recognized with many accolades; with 45 per cent of the winners, the United States outrageously dominates the Nobel Prize for Medicine. The volume of health spending in the United States is far more than any other country; however, the health outcomes are far below expectation. An American child Born in 2016 will live on average 78.6 years, which places the country around the thirty-fifth place in the world, somewhere between Cuba and Qatar; the United States has other modest results, as evidenced by the ranking of countries in terms of infant mortality in 2015, which placed the country 33rd out of 35 member countries, ahead of only Turkey and Mexico. Although the United States ranks 35th out of 190 countries based on infant mortality in 2015, it is still far behind Cuba, which was 30th and the first "non-high" income country. In 2016, US health expenditures/gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded 16%, with an average of 10,000 USD/inhabitants, while Cuban health expenditures/GDP did not exceed 11% during the same period. We aim through the present work to show that the state of health doesn't improve by spending more. However, it improves by spending more on programs that we know from the evidence can improve health outcomes.


Assuntos
Atenção à Saúde , Gastos em Saúde , Produto Interno Bruto , Instalações de Saúde , Humanos , Renda , Estados Unidos
19.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 14386, 2022 08 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35999246

RESUMO

We estimated mortality and economic loss attributable to PM2·5 air pollution exposure in 429 counties of Iran in 2018. Ambient PM2.5-related deaths were estimated using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). According to the ground-monitored and satellite-based PM2.5 data, the annual mean population-weighted PM2·5 concentrations for Iran were 30.1 and 38.6 µg m-3, respectively. We estimated that long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 contributed to 49,303 (95% confidence interval (CI) 40,914-57,379) deaths in adults ≥ 25 yr. from all-natural causes based on ground monitored data and 58,873 (95% CI 49,024-68,287) deaths using satellite-based models for PM2.5. The crude death rate and the age-standardized death rate per 100,000 population for age group ≥ 25 year due to ground-monitored PM2.5 data versus satellite-based exposure estimates was 97 (95% CI 81-113) versus 116 (95% CI 97-135) and 125 (95% CI 104-145) versus 149 (95% CI 124-173), respectively. For ground-monitored and satellite-based PM2.5 data, the economic loss attributable to ambient PM2.5-total mortality was approximately 10,713 (95% CI 8890-12,467) and 12,792.1 (95% CI 10,652.0-14,837.6) million USD, equivalent to nearly 3.7% (95% CI 3.06-4.29) and 4.3% (95% CI 3.6-4.5.0) of the total gross domestic product in Iran in 2018.


Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Morte Perinatal , Adulto , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Feminino , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Irã (Geográfico)/epidemiologia , Material Particulado/efeitos adversos , Material Particulado/análise
20.
PLoS One ; 17(8): e0271983, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35969586

RESUMO

The economy in the poverty-stricken areas of China has grown rapidly in response to poverty alleviation policies in the 21st century. To explicate the response of the eco-environment to rapid economic growth in the 14 contiguous areas of dire poverty in China, we developed a method of evaluating the impact of poverty alleviation policies on ecological health. Based on the yearly data of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 2000 to 2019, the dynamic changes in NDVI and GDP were calculated, and the development patterns in the 14 contiguous areas of dire poverty were evaluated and classified. The results show that both annual GDP per capita and average annual NDVI exhibited an increasing trend, increasing by 43.81% and 0.84% per year, respectively. The development of the 14 contiguous areas of dire poverty all presented a coordinated and sustainable (A) development pattern during the period from 2000 to 2019. The consistency of economic and ecological health development between 2000 and 2013 was less than that between 2014 and 2019. Moreover, the result indicates that it is necessary to make timely adjustments to poverty alleviation strategies based on the positive consistency between economic growth and ecological health.


Assuntos
Áreas de Pobreza , Pobreza , China , Produto Interno Bruto , Políticas
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