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1.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(45): 1700-1705, 2020 Nov 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33180759

RESUMO

In 2010, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set the following three milestones for measles control to be achieved by 2015: 1) increase routine coverage with the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) among children aged 1 year to ≥90% at the national level and to ≥80% in every district, 2) reduce global annual measles incidence to <5 cases per 1 million population, and 3) reduce global measles mortality by 95% from the 2000 estimate* (1). In 2012, WHA endorsed the Global Vaccine Action Plan,† with the objective of eliminating measles§ in five of the six World Health Organization (WHO) regions by 2020. This report describes progress toward WHA milestones and regional measles elimination during 2000-2019 and updates a previous report (2). During 2000-2010, estimated MCV1 coverage increased globally from 72% to 84% but has since plateaued at 84%-85%. All countries conducted measles surveillance; however, approximately half did not achieve the sensitivity indicator target of two or more discarded measles and rubella cases per 100,000 population. Annual reported measles incidence decreased 88%, from 145 to 18 cases per 1 million population during 2000-2016; the lowest incidence occurred in 2016, but by 2019 incidence had risen to 120 cases per 1 million population. During 2000-2019, the annual number of estimated measles deaths decreased 62%, from 539,000 to 207,500; an estimated 25.5 million measles deaths were averted. To drive progress toward the regional measles elimination targets, additional strategies are needed to help countries reach all children with 2 doses of measles-containing vaccine, identify and close immunity gaps, and improve surveillance.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Objetivos , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Incidência , Lactente , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/mortalidade , Vacina contra Sarampo/administração & dosagem , Organização Mundial da Saúde
2.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1750, 2020 Nov 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33225945

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The economic, psychological, and social impact of pandemics and social distancing measures prompt the urgent need to determine the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), especially those considered most stringent such as stay-at-home and self-isolation mandates. This study focuses specifically on the impact of stay-at-home orders, both nationally and internationally, on the control of COVID-19. METHODS: We conducted an observational analysis from April to May 2020 and included both countries and US states with known stay-at-home orders. Our primary exposure was the time between the date of the first reported case of COVID-19 to an implemented stay-at-home mandate for each region. Our primary outcomes were the time from the first reported case to the highest number of daily cases and daily deaths. We conducted linear regression analyses, controlling for the case rate of the outbreak in each respective region. RESULTS: For countries and US states, a longer period of time between the first reported case and stay-at-home mandates was associated with a longer time to reach both the peak daily case and death counts. The largest effect was among regions classified as the latest 10% to implement a mandate, which in the US, predicted an extra 35.3 days (95% CI: 18.2, 52.5) to the peak number of cases, and 38.3 days (95% CI: 23.6, 53.0) to the peak number of deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports the association between the timing of stay-at-home orders and the time to peak case and death counts for both countries and US states. Regions in which mandates were implemented late experienced a prolonged duration to reaching both peak daily case and death counts.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena/legislação & jurisprudência , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
3.
BMC Public Health ; 20(1): 1742, 2020 Nov 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33213391

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Case-fatality from COVID-19 has been reported to be relatively high in patients age 65 years or older. We sought to determine the age-specific rates of COVID-19 mortality at the population level. METHODS: We obtained information regarding the total number of COVID-19 reported deaths for six consecutive weeks beginning at the 50th recorded death, among 16 countries that reported a relatively high number of COVID-19 cases as of April 12, 2020. We performed an ecological study to model COVID-19 mortality rates per week by age group (54 years or younger, 55-64 years, and 65 years or older) and sex using a Poisson mixed effects regression model. RESULTS: Over the six-week period of data, there were 178,568 COVID-19 deaths from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people. Age and sex were associated with COVID-19 mortality. Compared with individuals ages 54 years or younger, the incident rate ratio (IRR) was 8.1, indicating that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was 8.1 times higher (95%CI = 7.7, 8.5) among those 55 to 64 years, and more than 62 times higher (IRR = 62.1; 95%CI = 59.7, 64.7) among those ages 65 or older. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were 77% higher in men than in women (IRR = 1.77, 95%CI = 1.74, 1.79). CONCLUSIONS: In the 16 countries examined, persons age 65 years or older had strikingly higher COVID-19 mortality rates compared to younger individuals, and men had a higher risk of COVID-19 death than women.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Feminino , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Pandemias , Risco , Distribuição por Sexo
4.
Br J Hosp Med (Lond) ; 81(10): 1-9, 2020 Oct 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33135928

RESUMO

After initially emerging in late 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has spread rapidly to cause a global pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 is a betacoronavirus that is closely related to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, all of which can cause severe lung injury, respiratory distress and cytokine storm. While mortality rates associated with SARS-CoV-2 are lower than those associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus or Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, it is more contagious and spreads more rapidly than these other viruses. This article summarises the epidemiology and potential options for treating COVID-19 to give a foundation for future studies of the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of this deadly disease.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Betacoronavirus/patogenicidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão
6.
PLoS One ; 15(10): e0238782, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33021973

RESUMO

In 2015, UN member states committed to eliminate female genital mutilation (FGM) by 2030 as part of the Sustainable Development Agenda. To reach this goal, interventions need to be targeted and guided by the best available evidence. To date, however, estimates of the number of girls and women affected by FGM and their trends over time and geographic space have been limited by the availability, specificity and quality of population-level data. We present new estimates based on all publicly available nationally representative surveys collected since the 1990s that contain both information on FGM status and on the age at which FGM occurred. Using survival analysis, we generate estimates of FGM risk by single year of age for all countries with available data, and for rural and urban areas separately. The likelihood of experiencing FGM has decreased at the global level, but progress has been starkly uneven between countries. The available data indicate no progress in reducing FGM risk in Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali and Guinea. In addition, rural and urban areas have diverged over the last two decades, with FGM declining more rapidly in urban areas. We describe limitations in the availability and quality of data on FGM occurrence and age-at-FGM. Based on current trends, the SDG goal of eliminating FGM by 2030 is out of reach, and the pace at which the practice is being abandoned would need to accelerate to eliminate FGM by 2030. The heterogeneity in trends between countries and rural vs urban areas offers an opportunity to contrast countries where FGM is in rapid decline and explore potential policy lessons and programmatic implications for countries where the practice of FGM appears to remain entrenched.


Assuntos
Circuncisão Feminina , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Circuncisão Feminina/legislação & jurisprudência , Circuncisão Feminina/estatística & dados numéricos , Circuncisão Feminina/tendências , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Saúde Global/legislação & jurisprudência , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global/tendências , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Saúde da População Rural , Inquéritos e Questionários , Nações Unidas , Saúde da População Urbana , Saúde da Mulher/legislação & jurisprudência , Saúde da Mulher/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde da Mulher/tendências , Adulto Jovem
7.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 744, 2020 Oct 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33036570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The triple burden of COVID-19, tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus is one of the major global health challenges of the twenty-first century. In high burden HIV/TB countries, the spread of COVID-19 among people living with HIV is a well-founded concern. A thorough understanding of HIV/TB and COVID-19 pandemics is important as the three diseases interact. This may clarify HIV/TB/COVID-19 as a newly related field. However, several gaps remain in the knowledge of the burden of COVID-19 on patients with TB and HIV. This study was conducted to review different studies on SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV or COVID-19 associated with HIV/TB co-infection or only TB, to understand the interactions between HIV, TB and COVID-19 and its implications on the burden of the COVID-19 among HIV/TB co-infected or TB patients, screening algorithm and clinical management. METHODS: We conducted an electronic search of potentially eligible studies published in English in the Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, PubMed, Medrxiv, Google scholar and Clinical Trials Registry databases. We included case studies, case series and observational studies published between January, 2002 and July, 2020 in which SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and COVID-19 co-infected to HIV/TB or TB in adults. We screened titles, abstracts and full articles for eligibility. Descriptive and meta-analysis were done and results have been presented in graphs and tables. RESULTS: After removing 95 duplicates, 58 out of 437 articles were assessed for eligibility, of which 14 studies were included for descriptive analysis and seven studies were included in the meta-analysis. Compared to the descriptive analysis, the meta-analysis showed strong evidence that current TB exposure was high-risk COVID-19 group (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.06-2.65, P = 0.03). The pooled of COVID-19/TB severity rate increased from OR 4.50 (95% CI 1.12-18.10, P = 0.03), the recovery rate was high among COVID-19 compared to COVID-19/TB irrespective of HIV status (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.83-2.74, P < 0.001) and the mortality was reduced among non-TB group (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In summary, TB was a risk factor for COVID-19 both in terms of severity and mortality irrespective of HIV status. Structured diagnostic algorithms and clinical management are suggested to improve COVID-19/HIV/TB or COVID-19/TB co-infections outcomes.


Assuntos
Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Tuberculose/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Prevalência , Sistema de Registros , Fatores de Risco
8.
Ann Biol Clin (Paris) ; 78(5): 499-518, 2020 Oct 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33026346

RESUMO

The French society of clinical biology "Biochemical markers of COVID-19" has set up a working group with the primary aim of reviewing, analyzing and monitoring the evolution of biological prescriptions according to the patient's care path and to look for markers of progression and severity of the disease. This study covers all public and private sectors of medical biology located in metropolitan and overseas France and also extends to the French-speaking world. This article presents the testimonies and data obtained for the "Overseas and French-speaking countries" sub-working group made up of 45 volunteer correspondents, located in 20 regions of the world. In view of the delayed spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the overseas regions and the French-speaking regions have benefited from feedback from the first territories confronted with COVID-19. Thus, the entry of the virus or its spread in epidemic form could be avoided, thanks to the rapid closure of borders. The overseas territories depend very strongly on air and/or sea links with the metropolis or with the neighboring continent. The isolation of these countries is responsible for reagent supply difficulties and has necessitated emergency orders and the establishment of stocks lasting several months, in order to avoid shortages and maintain adequate patient care. In addition, in countries located in tropical or intertropical zones, the diagnosis of COVID-19 is complicated by the presence of various zoonoses (dengue, Zika, malaria, leptospirosis, etc.).


Assuntos
Serviços de Laboratório Clínico , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Medicina de Viagem/organização & administração , Adulto , África/epidemiologia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Bélgica/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus/fisiologia , Biomarcadores/análise , Biomarcadores/sangue , Camboja/epidemiologia , Criança , Serviços de Laboratório Clínico/organização & administração , Serviços de Laboratório Clínico/estatística & dados numéricos , Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Busca de Comunicante/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Diagnóstico Diferencial , Feminino , França/epidemiologia , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Ilhas/epidemiologia , Idioma , Laos/epidemiologia , Louisiana/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoal de Laboratório Médico/organização & administração , Pessoal de Laboratório Médico/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Estudos Retrospectivos , Inquéritos e Questionários , Análise de Sobrevida , Medicina de Viagem/métodos , Medicina de Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Clima Tropical , Medicina Tropical/métodos , Medicina Tropical/organização & administração , Medicina Tropical/estatística & dados numéricos , Vietnã/epidemiologia
9.
Aust J Gen Pract ; 49(10): 683-686, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33015684

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: SARS-CoV-2 is known to cause milder disease in children when compared with adults, but the extent of this is unclear. The aim of this article is to estimate the case fatality rate (CFR) for SARS-CoV-2 infection and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in young children aged <5 years, and compare this with estimated CFRs for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza. METHOD: This article reviews published case series of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the paediatric population and epidemiological data on COVID-19 published on official government websites internationally and in Australia. RESULTS: The CFR of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in children aged <5 years is estimated to be 0.15-1.35%, which is lower than the estimated CFR of RSV pneumonia of 0.3-2.1%, but higher than the estimated CFR of influenza pneumonia of 0.14-0.45%. DISCUSSION: SARS-CoV-2 infection is likely to be less lethal than RSV in children aged <5 years, but more lethal than influenza.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Influenza Humana/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial/mortalidade , Adolescente , Pré-Escolar , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Mortalidade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/etiologia
10.
Public Health ; 188: 18-20, 2020 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33049491

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: With COVID-19 infections resulting in death according to a hierarchy of risks, with age and pre-existing health conditions enhancing disease severity, the objective of this study is to estimate the condition-specific case fatality ratio (CFR) for different subpopulations in Italy. STUDY DESIGN: The design of the study was to estimate the 'pre-existing comorbidity'-conditional CFR to eventually explain the mortality risk variability reported around in different countries. METHODS: We use the available information on pre-existing health conditions identified for deceased patients 'positive with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)' in Italy. We (i) estimated the total number of deaths for different pre-existing health conditions categories and (ii) calculated a conditional CFR based upon the number of comorbidities before SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: Our results show a 0.6% conditional CFR for a population with zero pre-existing pathology, increasing to 13.9% for a population diagnosed with one and more pre-existing health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Condition-specific mortality risks are important to be evaluated during the COVID-19 pandemic, with potential elements to explain the CFR variability around the globe. A careful postmortem examination of deceased cases to differentiate death 'caused by COVID-19' from death 'positive with SARS-CoV-2' is therefore urgently needed and will likely improve our understanding of the COVID-19 mortality risk and virus pathogenicity.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Comorbidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco
11.
Lancet Glob Health ; 8(11): e1427-e1434, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33069303

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: 3 billion people worldwide rely on polluting fuels and technologies for domestic cooking and heating. We estimate the global, regional, and national health burden associated with exposure to household air pollution. METHODS: For the systematic review and meta-analysis, we systematically searched four databases for studies published from database inception to April 2, 2020, that evaluated the risk of adverse cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal outcomes from exposure to household air pollution, compared with no exposure. We used a random-effects model to calculate disease-specific relative risk (RR) meta-estimates. Household air pollution exposure was defined as use of polluting fuels (coal, wood, charcoal, agricultural wastes, animal dung, or kerosene) for household cooking or heating. Temporal trends in mortality and disease burden associated with household air pollution, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were estimated from 2000 to 2017 using exposure prevalence data from 183 of 193 UN member states. 95% CIs were estimated by propagating uncertainty from the RR meta-estimates, prevalence of household air pollution exposure, and disease-specific mortality and burden estimates using a simulation-based approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019125060. FINDINGS: 476 studies (15·5 million participants) from 123 nations (99 [80%] of which were classified as low-income and middle-income) met the inclusion criteria. Household air pollution was positively associated with asthma (RR 1·23, 95% CI 1·11-1·36), acute respiratory infection in both adults (1·53, 1·22-1·93) and children (1·39, 1·29-1·49), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1·70, 1·47-1·97), lung cancer (1·69, 1·44-1·98), and tuberculosis (1·26, 1·08-1·48); cerebrovascular disease (1·09, 1·04-1·14) and ischaemic heart disease (1·10, 1·09-1·11); and low birthweight (1·36, 1·19-1·55) and stillbirth (1·22, 1·06-1·41); as well as with under-5 (1·25, 1·18-1·33), respiratory (1·19, 1·18-1·20), and cardiovascular (1·07, 1·04-1·11) mortality. Household air pollution was associated with 1·8 million (95% CI 1·1-2·7) deaths and 60·9 million (34·6-93·3) DALYs in 2017, with the burden overwhelmingly experienced in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; 60·8 million [34·6-92·9] DALYs) compared with high-income countries (0·09 million [0·01-0·40] DALYs). From 2000, mortality associated with household air pollution had reduced by 36% (95% CI 29-43) and disease burden by 30% (25-36), with the greatest reductions observed in higher-income nations. INTERPRETATION: The burden of cardiorespiratory, paediatric, and maternal diseases associated with household air pollution has declined worldwide but remains high in the world's poorest regions. Urgent integrated health and energy strategies are needed to reduce the adverse health impact of household air pollution, especially in LMICs. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Wellcome Trust.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar em Ambientes Fechados/efeitos adversos , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Humanos
12.
J Glob Health ; 10(2): 020511, 2020 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33110594

RESUMO

Background: Internet search engine data, such as Google Trends, was shown to be correlated with the incidence of COVID-19, but only in several countries. We aim to develop a model from a small number of countries to predict the epidemic alert level in all the countries worldwide. Methods: The "interest over time" and "interest by region" Google Trends data of Coronavirus, pneumonia, and six COVID symptom-related terms were searched. The daily incidence of COVID-19 from 10 January to 23 April 2020 of 202 countries was retrieved from the World Health Organization. Three alert levels were defined. Ten weeks' data from 20 countries were used for training with machine learning algorithms. The features were selected according to the correlation and importance. The model was then tested on 2830 samples of 202 countries. Results: Our model performed well in 154 (76.2%) countries, of which each had no more than four misclassified samples. In these 154 countries, the accuracy was 0.8133, and the kappa coefficient was 0.6828. While in all 202 countries, the accuracy was 0.7527, and the kappa coefficient was 0.5841. The proposed algorithm based on Random Forest Classification and nine features performed better compared to other machine learning methods and the models with different numbers of features. Conclusions: Our result suggested that the model developed from 20 countries with Google Trends data and Random Forest Classification can be applied to predict the epidemic alert levels of most countries worldwide.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Aprendizado de Máquina/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Ferramenta de Busca/estatística & dados numéricos , Betacoronavirus , Confiabilidade dos Dados , Humanos , Incidência , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos
14.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi ; 41(9): 1487-1493, 2020 Sep 10.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33076604

RESUMO

Objective: To compare the indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCD) and predict the achieving time of United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in 125 countries participating in the Belt and Road (B&R) initiative and China. Methods: Using the open access data of Global Burden of Disease study, we first got the premature mortality rates of four main chronic diseases (cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases) and suicide mortality rate in the 126 countries from1990 to 2017. We transformed the value of each indicator into a scale of 0-100 in percentile for each country and applied geometric mean to calculate total NCD score for comparison among 126 countries. We then examined the association of NCD scores with socio-demographic index (SDI) values. Finally, we used annualized rates of change during 1990-2015 to predict achieving time of the UN goal by 2030 for each indicator of chronic diseases premature mortality rate and suicide mortality rates in each B&R country. Results: The integral median of total NCD score in the 126 countries in 2017 was 82.7. The score of China was 87.6, ranking 33(rd). The top three countries were Kuwait (98.1), Peru (97.5) and Italy (96.0). The last three countries were Papua New Guinea (28.9), Vanuatu (54.7) and Ukraine (58.0). The total NCD score showed positive correlation with SDI values (r=0.33) mainly due to chronic disease indicator (r=0.45). Fifteen countries will achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality in or before 2030, but China will achieve it in 2038. Fifteen countries are expected to achieve the goal of suicide mortality, and China will acheive the goal ahead of schedule in 2024. Conclusions: The NCD rates varied widely among the countries along B&R. It is a challenge to achieve the SDG goal of chronic disease premature mortality rate by 2030 for China. In order to achieve the SDG goals by 2030, we should strengthen multilateral cooperation and complement each other's advantages, and reduce NCD mortality of people and improve people's health in countries along B&R.


Assuntos
Saúde Global , Doenças não Transmissíveis , Previsões , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia
15.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(43): 1563-1568, 2020 Oct 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33119555

RESUMO

Dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease) is caused by the parasite Dracunculus medinensis and is acquired by drinking water containing copepods (water fleas) infected with D. medinensis larvae. The worm typically emerges through the skin on a lower limb approximately 1 year after infection, resulting in pain and disability (1). There is no vaccine or medicine to treat the disease; eradication efforts rely on case containment* to prevent water contamination. Other interventions to prevent infection include health education, water filtration, chemical treatment of unsafe water with temephos (an organophosphate larvicide to kill copepods), and provision of safe drinking water (1,2). The worldwide eradication campaign began in 1980 at CDC (1). In 1986, with an estimated 3.5 million cases† occurring each year in 20 African and Asian countries§ (3), the World Health Assembly (WHA) called for dracunculiasis elimination (4). The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP), led by the Carter Center and supported by the World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations Children's Fund, CDC, and other partners, began assisting ministries of health in countries with dracunculiasis. This report, based on updated health ministry data (4), describes progress made during January 2019-June 2020 and updates previous reports (2,4,5). With only 54 human cases reported in 2019, 19 human cases reported during January 2019-June 2020, and only six countries currently affected by dracunculiasis (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan, and importations into Cameroon), the achievement of eradication is within reach, but it is challenged by civil unrest, insecurity, and lingering epidemiologic and zoologic concerns, including 2,000 reported animal cases in 2019 and 1,063 animal cases in 2020, mostly in dogs. All national GWEPs remain fully operational, with precautions taken to ensure safety of program staff members and community members in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Dracunculíase/prevenção & controle , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Animais , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Doenças do Cão/parasitologia , Cães , Dracunculíase/epidemiologia , Dracunculíase/veterinária , Humanos
16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32992643

RESUMO

The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has adversely affected many countries in the world. The unexpected large number of COVID-19 cases has disrupted the healthcare system in many countries and resulted in a shortage of bed spaces in the hospitals. Consequently, predicting the number of COVID-19 cases is imperative for governments to take appropriate actions. The number of COVID-19 cases can be accurately predicted by considering historical data of reported cases alongside some external factors that affect the spread of the virus. In the literature, most of the existing prediction methods focus only on the historical data and overlook most of the external factors. Hence, the number of COVID-19 cases is inaccurately predicted. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to simultaneously consider historical data and the external factors. This can be accomplished by adopting data analytics, which include developing a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous input (NARX) neural network-based algorithm. The viability and superiority of the developed algorithm are demonstrated by conducting experiments using data collected for top five affected countries in each continent. The results show an improved accuracy when compared with existing methods. Moreover, the experiments are extended to make future prediction for the number of patients afflicted with COVID-19 during the period from August 2020 until September 2020. By using such predictions, both the government and people in the affected countries can take appropriate measures to resume pre-epidemic activities.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Ciência de Dados , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Pandemias
17.
Public Health ; 187: 140-142, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32971478

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the most devastating pandemic to affect humanity in a century. In this article, we assessed tests as a policy instrument and policy enactment to contain COVID-19 and potentially reduce mortalities. STUDY DESIGN: A model was devised to estimate the factors that influenced the death rate across 121 nations and by income group. RESULTS: Nations with a higher proportion of people aged 65+ years had a higher fatality rate (P = 0.00014). Delaying policy enactment led to a higher case fatality rate (P = 0.0013). A 10% delay time to act resulted in a 3.7% higher case fatality rate. This study found that delaying policies for international travel restrictions, public information campaigns, and testing policies increased the fatality rate. Tests also impacted the case fatality rate, and nations with 10% more cumulative tests per million people showed a 2.8% lower mortality rate. Citizens of nations who can access more destinations without the need to have a prior visa have a significant higher mortality rate than those who need a visa to travel abroad (P = 0.0040). CONCLUSION: Tests, as a surrogate of policy action and earlier policy enactment, matter for saving lives from pandemics as such policies reduce the transmission rate of the pandemic.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Política Pública , Idoso , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Educação em Saúde , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Viagem/legislação & jurisprudência
18.
Soc Sci Med ; 263: 113365, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32981770

RESUMO

Can social contextual factors explain international differences in the spread of COVID-19? It is widely assumed that social cohesion, public confidence in government sources of health information and general concern for the welfare of others support health advisories during a pandemic and save lives. We tested this assumption through a time-series analysis of cross-national differences in COVID-19 mortality during an early phase of the pandemic. Country data on income inequality and four dimensions of social capital (trust, group affiliations, civic responsibility and confidence in public institutions) were linked to data on COVID-19 deaths in 84 countries. Associations with deaths were examined using Poisson regression with population-averaged estimators. During a 30-day period after recording their tenth death, mortality was positively related to income inequality, trust and group affiliations and negatively related to social capital from civic engagement and confidence in state institutions. These associations held in bivariate and mutually controlled regression models with controls for population size, age and wealth. The results indicate that societies that are more economically unequal and lack capacity in some dimensions of social capital experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Social trust and belonging to groups were associated with more deaths, possibly due to behavioural contagion and incongruence with physical distancing policy. Some countries require a more robust public health response to contain the spread and impact of COVID-19 due to economic and social divisions within them.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Renda/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Capital Social , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Confiança
20.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(37): 1330-1333, 2020 Sep 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941411

RESUMO

Since 1988, when World Health Organization (WHO) Member States and partners launched the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, the number of wild poliovirus (WPV) cases has declined from 350,000 in 125 countries to 176 in only two countries in 2019 (1). The Global Commission for the Certification of Poliomyelitis Eradication (GCC) declared two of the three WPV types, type 2 (WPV2) and type 3 (WPV3), eradicated globally in 2015 and 2019, respectively (1). Wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan (1). Containment under strict biorisk management measures is vital to prevent reintroduction of eradicated polioviruses into communities from poliovirus facilities. In 2015, Member States committed to contain type 2 polioviruses (PV2) in poliovirus-essential facilities (PEFs) certified in accordance with a global standard (2). Member states agreed to report national PV2 inventories annually, destroy unneeded PV2 materials, and, if retaining PV2 materials, establish national authorities for containment (NACs) and a PEF auditing process. Since declaration of WPV3 eradication in October 2019, these activities are also required with WPV3 materials. Despite challenges faced during 2019-2020, including the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the global poliovirus containment program continues to work toward important milestones. To maintain progress, all WHO Member States are urged to adhere to the agreed containment resolutions, including officially establishing legally empowered NACs and submission of PEF Certificates of Participation.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Poliomielite/epidemiologia , Vacina Antipólio Oral/administração & dosagem
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