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2.
Rev Med Suisse ; 16(710): 1938-1940, 2020 Oct 14.
Artigo em Francês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33058581

RESUMO

In recent years, several cases of measles have appeared on the campuses of the University of Lausanne (UNIL) and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL). In response to this, several medical students have mobilized in collaboration with various cantonal authorities in order to set up a free measles, mumps and rubella vaccination campaign on the UNIL/EPFL campuses, in 2019. This first edition was a success and will be repeated in the future. Such an approach having shown its feasibility, it could be applied to other public health issues. The involvement of medical students could thus be extremely valuable if a generalized vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 were to take place.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Estudantes de Medicina , Vacinação/métodos , Vacinas Virais/administração & dosagem , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Suíça/epidemiologia , Resultado do Tratamento , Universidades
4.
Open Heart ; 7(2)2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33020258

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cardiac involvement with COVID-19 is increasingly being recognised. Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 complicated by secondary Takotsubo cardiomyopathy (TC) is poorly understood. METHODS: This retrospective case series was conducted between March and April 2020 at four hospitals of Steward Health Care Network of Massachusetts, USA. Seven patients out of 169 who had echocardiogram were identified to have features of TC. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, management and outcome were gathered from their electronic medical records. We also reviewed all the published cases of COVID-19 and TC in the literature to recognise their common clinical characteristics, risk factors and outcomes. RESULTS: In our series of seven patients, three typical, two inverted, one biventricular and one global TC were recognised. Three were females and four were males. The mean age was 71±11 years. In-hospital death was observed in 57% of patients. Patients who belonged to the high-risk group and had high-risk echocardiographic features in our series had a 100% mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 complicated by TC has a high mortality rate. Early identification of patients with COVID-19 who are at higher risk for developing secondary TC is important for the prevention of complications, and thus improved outcomes.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Cardiomiopatia de Takotsubo/diagnóstico por imagem , Cardiomiopatia de Takotsubo/epidemiologia , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Comorbidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Ecocardiografia/métodos , Eletrocardiografia/métodos , Feminino , Coração Auxiliar , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Humanos , Masculino , Massachusetts , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Prevalência , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Distribuição por Sexo , Cardiomiopatia de Takotsubo/terapia
5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 20(1): 745, 2020 Oct 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33046011

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Workers and residents in Care Homes are considered at special risk for the acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 infection, due to the infectivity and high mortality rate in the case of residents, compared to other containment areas. The role of presymptomatic people in transmission has been shown to be important and the early detection of these people is critical for the control of new outbreaks. Pooling strategies have proven to preserve SARS-CoV-2 testing resources. The aims of the present study, based in our local experience, were (a) to describe SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in institutionalized people in Galicia (Spain) during the Coronavirus pandemic and (b) to evaluate the expected performance of a pooling strategy using RT-PCR for the next rounds of screening of institutionalized people. METHODS: A total of 25,386 Nasopharyngeal swab samples from the total of the residents and workers at Care Homes in Galicia (March to May 2020) were individually tested using RT-PCR. Prevalence and quantification cycle (Cq) value distribution of positives was calculated. Besides, 26 pools of 20 samples and 14 pools of 5 samples were tested using RT-PCR as well (1 positive/pool). Pooling proof of concept was performed in two populations with 1.7 and 2% prevalence. RESULTS: Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 infection at Care Homes was uneven (0-60%). As the virus circulation global rate was low in our area (3.32%), the number of people at risk of acquiring the infection continues to be very high. In this work, we have successfully demonstrated that pooling of different groups of samples at low prevalence clusters, can be done with a small average delay on Cq values (5 and 2.85 cycles for pools of 20 and 5 samples, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: A new screening system with guaranteed protection is required for small clusters, previously covered with individual testing. Our proposal for Care Homes, once prevalence zero is achieved, would include successive rounds of testing using a pooling solution for transmission control preserving testing resources. Scale-up of this method may be of utility to confront larger clusters to avoid the viral circulation and keeping them operative.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/genética , Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Casas de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa , Espanha/epidemiologia
6.
Arch. prev. riesgos labor. (Ed. impr.) ; 23(3): 330-342, jul.-sept. 2020. tab, graf
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-194119

RESUMO

ANTECEDENTES: En abril de 2018 se detectó un número inusualmente elevado de síntomas irritativos de ojos, garganta y nariz, síntomas inespecíficos digestivos y mareos en trabajadores de los laboratorios de microbiología (LAM) y análisis clínicos (LAC) de un hospital de tercer nivel de Mallorca, asociados a olores también inhabituales. OBJETIVO: Confirmar la existencia del brote, identificar sus causas, y contribuir a su control y prevención. MÉTODOS: Estudio epidemiológico del brote con componentes cualitativo y cuantitativo. El primero se basó en la técnica de Grupos Focales. El estudio cuantitativo permitió elaborar las curvas epidémicas, en base a las visitas de los trabajadores por molestias al Servicio de Salud Laboral (SSL) y los episodios de incapacidad temporal (IT). Finalmente, se revisaron los informes higiénicos disponibles, valorando las posibles relaciones con la distribución de los casos. RESULTADOS: Mediante los grupos focales se establecieron dos definiciones operativas de caso, junto a la identificación de las posibles explicaciones del brote según las percepciones de los trabajadores. El estudio cuantitativo confirmó la existencia de un brote en el LAM, descartándolo en el LAC. Los episodios de IT en el LAM entre las semanas 16 y 39 excedieron en cuatro veces el número de casos esperados. El número de visitas al SSL también mostró un exceso de casos en las mismas semanas. CONCLUSIONES: El estudio cuantitativo confirma la existencia de un brote epidémico que ha finalizado, si bien el estudio cualitativo pone de manifiesto la continuación de los malos olores y molestias. La mejora de los sistemas de vigilancia epidemiológica facilitará la monitorización y control de otros posibles brotes en el futuro


BACKGROUND: In April 2018, an unusually high number of eye, throat and nose irritative symptoms, nonspecific gastrointestinal symptoms and dizziness were identified in workers in the microbiology (LAM) and clinical analysis (LCA) laboratories of a tertiary public hospital in Mallorca; these symptoms were also associated with perception of unusual odors. OBJECTIVE: To confirm the presence of an outbreak, identify its causes, and contribute to its prevention and control. METHODS: Epidemiological study of the outbreak involving qualitative and quantitative methods. The qualitative component was based on conducting focus groups The quantitative study allowed us to develop epidemic curves, based on employee visits to the hospital's occupational health service (OHS) due to either symptoms or episodes of sickness absence (SA). Lastly, available industrial hygiene reports were reviewed to examine possible relationships with the distribution of cases. RESULTS:Two operational case definitions were established through the focus groups, along with identification of possible explanations for the outbreak based on employee perception. The quantitative study confirmed the outbreak in the LAM, but not in the LCA. The SA episodes in the LAM between weeks 16 and 39 exceeded the number of expected cases four-fold. We also detected an excess of visits to the OHS during the same time period. CONCLUSIONS: The quantitative study confirmed an epidemic outbreak that has since ended, although the qualitative study indicated the persistence of bad smell and discomfort. The improvement of epidemiological surveillance systems as a result of the study will facilitate the monitoring and control of future possible outbreaks


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Doenças Profissionais/epidemiologia , Pessoal de Laboratório/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Sexuais , Grupos Focais , Incidência
7.
Ann Surg ; 272(4): e275-e279, 2020 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32932327

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the clinical course of a consecutive series of patients operated of urgent cardiac surgery during COVID-19 outbreak. BACKGROUND: In Italy, COVID outbreak has mostly occurred in the metropolitan area of Milan, and in the surrounding region of Lombardy, and previously "conventional" hospitals were converted into COVID spokes to increase ICU beds availability, and to allow only urgent CS procedures. METHODS: Among urgent CS patients (left main stenosis with unstable angina, acute endocarditis, valvular regurgitation with impending heart failure), 10 patients (mean age = 57 ± 9 years), despite a negative admission triage, developed COVID-pneumonia postoperatively, at a median of 7 days after CS. RESULTS: Patients showed typical lymphopenia, higher prothrombotic profile, and higher markers of inflammation (ferritin and interleukin-6 values). At the zenith of pulmonary distress, patients presented with severe hypoxia (median PaO2/FIO2 ratio = 116), requiring advanced noninvasive ventilation (Venturi mask and continuous positive airway pressure) in the majority of cases. All patients were treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and low-molecular-weight heparin at anticoagulant dose. Overall in-hospital mortality was 10% (1/10), peaking 25% in patients who developed COVID pneumonia immediately after CS. The remaining patients, with late infection, were all discharged home without oxygen support, at a median of 25 days after symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: As postoperative mortality in case of COVID pneumonia is not negligible, meticulous rules (precise triage, safe hospital path, high level of protection for health-care teams, prompt diagnosis of suspicious symptoms) should be strictly followed in patients undergoing CS during COVID pandemic. The role of therapies alternative to CS should be further assessed.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecção Hospitalar/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Mortalidade Hospitalar/tendências , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Idoso , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/mortalidade , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Cardíacos/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Emergências , Feminino , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Controle de Infecções/métodos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/fisiopatologia , Medição de Risco
8.
N Z Med J ; 133(1522): 71-83, 2020 09 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32994618

RESUMO

Despite New Zealand's "measles elimination" status, the risk of measles outbreaks persists, due to ongoing measles importation and sub-optimal vaccination coverage, including specific sub-populations with higher proportions of susceptible people. From February to April 2019, Canterbury experienced a measles outbreak with 38 local cases and an unidentified index case. The outbreak strain was linked to a large outbreak in the Philippines. The whole-of-health-system response included active case and contact follow-up by public health and hospital staff, and a prioritised vaccination campaign in primary care. Important features of a measles outbreak response in an "elimination" context include cross-system liaison, co-ordination of communications, careful prioritisation of use of available resources, and support for households affected by isolation and/or quarantine requests. Closer analysis of the effectiveness of outbreak control measures would help prioritise use of scarce public health and health care resources during outbreaks. Future measles outbreaks could be prevented by a systematic primary care-based MMR catch-up campaign.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Sarampo , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Lactente , Sarampo/epidemiologia , Sarampo/prevenção & controle , Vacina contra Sarampo-Caxumba-Rubéola , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Morbillivirus/classificação , Morbillivirus/genética , Nova Zelândia/epidemiologia , Saúde Pública , Adulto Jovem
10.
Acta Biomed ; 91(3): e2020006, 2020 09 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32921704

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Digital epidemiology is increasingly used for supporting traditional epidemiology. This study was hence aimed to explore whether the Google search volume may have been useful to predict the trajectory of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We accessed Google Trends for collecting data on weekly Google searches for the keywords "tosse" (i.e., cough), "febbre" (i.e., fever) and "dispnea" (dyspnea) in Italy, between February and May 2020. The number of new weekly cases of COVID-19 in Italy was also obtained from the website of the National Institute of Health. RESULTS: The peaks of Google searches for the three terms predicted by 3 weeks that of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases. The peaks of weekly Google searches for "febbre" (fever), "tosse"( cough) and "dispnea" (dyspnea) were 1.7-, 2.2- and 7.7-fold higher compared to the week before the diagnosis of the first national case. No significant correlation was found between the number of newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases and Google search volumes of "tosse" (cough) and "febbre" (fever), whilst "dyspnea" (dyspnea) was significantly correlated (r= 0.50; p=0.034). The correlation between newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases and "tosse" (cough; r=0.65; p=0.008) or "febbre" (fever; 0.69; p=0.004) become statistically significant with a 3-week delay. All symptoms were also significantly inter-correlated. Conclusions; Continuously monitoring the volume of Google searches and mapping their origin can be a potentially valuable instrument to help predicting and identifying local recrudescence of COVID-19.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Ferramenta de Busca/métodos , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Valor Preditivo dos Testes
11.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 69(37): 1300-1304, 2020 Sep 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32941409

RESUMO

Nursing homes are high-risk settings for outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (1,2). During the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. health departments worked to improve infection prevention and control (IPC) practices in nursing homes to prevent outbreaks and limit the spread of COVID-19 in affected facilities; however, limited resources have hampered health departments' ability to rapidly provide IPC support to all nursing homes within their jurisdictions. Since 2008, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) has published health inspection results and quality ratings based on their Five-Star Quality Rating System for all CMS-certified nursing homes (3); these ratings might be associated with facility-level risk factors for COVID-19 outbreaks. On April 17, 2020, West Virginia became the first state to mandate and conduct COVID-19 testing for all nursing home residents and staff members to identify and reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in these settings (4). West Virginia's census of nursing home outbreaks was used to examine associations between CMS star ratings and COVID-19 outbreaks. Outbreaks, defined as two or more cases within 14 days (with at least one resident case), were identified in 14 (11%) of 123 nursing homes. Compared with 1-star-rated (lowest rated) nursing homes, the odds of a COVID-19 outbreak were 87% lower among 2- to 3-star-rated facilities (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.13, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03-0.54) and 94% lower among 4- to 5-star-rated facilities (aOR = 0.06, 95% CI = 0.006-0.39). Health departments could use star ratings to help identify priority nursing homes in their jurisdictions to inform the allocation of IPC resources. Efforts to mitigate outbreaks in high-risk nursing homes are necessary to reduce overall COVID-19 mortality and associated disparities. Moreover, such efforts should incorporate activities to improve the overall quality of life and care of nursing home residents and staff members and address the social and health inequities that have been recognized as a prominent feature of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States (5).


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Casas de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Qualidade da Assistência à Saúde/normas , Idoso , Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, U.S. , Humanos , Casas de Saúde/normas , Pandemias , Medição de Risco/métodos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , West Virginia/epidemiologia
12.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0238214, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32946442

RESUMO

Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identified which areas in the country were the most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of cases, the risk of sustained transmission and their social vulnerability. Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the initial hotspots, using mobility data from the pre-epidemic period, while multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices was done to identify areas with similar social vulnerability. The results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly socially vulnerable. Later, these areas would be found the most severely affected. The maps produced were sent to health authorities to aid in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. In the discussion, we address how predictions compared to the observed dynamics of the disease.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Modelos Teóricos , Morbidade/tendências , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Brasil/epidemiologia , Análise por Conglomerados , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos
13.
Math Biosci Eng ; 17(4): 3637-3648, 2020 05 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32987548

RESUMO

Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Cadeias de Markov , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Método de Monte Carlo , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Tempo
15.
Hypertension ; 76(5): 1526-1536, 2020 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32981365

RESUMO

ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) is a key component of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system. Yet, little is known about the clinical and biologic correlates of circulating ACE2 levels in humans. We assessed the clinical and proteomic correlates of plasma (soluble) ACE2 protein levels in human heart failure. We measured plasma ACE2 using a modified aptamer assay among PHFS (Penn Heart Failure Study) participants (n=2248). We performed an association study of ACE2 against ≈5000 other plasma proteins measured with the SomaScan platform. Plasma ACE2 was not associated with ACE inhibitor and angiotensin-receptor blocker use. Plasma ACE2 was associated with older age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, worse New York Heart Association class, a history of coronary artery bypass surgery, and higher pro-BNP (pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) levels. Plasma ACE2 exhibited associations with 1011 other plasma proteins. In pathway overrepresentation analyses, top canonical pathways associated with plasma ACE2 included clathrin-mediated endocytosis signaling, actin cytoskeleton signaling, mechanisms of viral exit from host cells, EIF2 (eukaryotic initiation factor 2) signaling, and the protein ubiquitination pathway. In conclusion, in humans with heart failure, plasma ACE2 is associated with various clinical factors known to be associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including older age, male sex, and diabetes mellitus, but is not associated with ACE inhibitor and angiotensin-receptor blocker use. Plasma ACE2 protein levels are prominently associated with multiple cellular pathways involved in cellular endocytosis, exocytosis, and intracellular protein trafficking. Whether these have a causal relationship with ACE2 or are relevant to novel coronavirus-2 infection remains to be assessed in future studies.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Progressão da Doença , Insuficiência Cardíaca/enzimologia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/fisiopatologia , Peptidil Dipeptidase A/sangue , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Centros Médicos Acadêmicos , Análise de Variância , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Estudos de Coortes , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Prognóstico , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Proteômica/métodos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Estados Unidos
17.
J Biol Dyn ; 14(1): 730-747, 2020 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32875961

RESUMO

In this study, we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lockdown restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing and possible medication scenarios. The pre-lock down value of R 0 is estimated to be 1.07 and the post lock down value is estimated to be 1.86. Using this analysis, we project the epidemic curve. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid-September, 2020, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700, 000. In a realistic, best case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid-July, 2020, with the maximum active cases being around 120, 000. We note that social distancing measures and medication will help flatten the curve; however, without the reintroduction of further lock down, it would be very difficult to make R 0 < 1 .


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Número Básico de Reprodução/estatística & dados numéricos , Bioestatística , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Epidemias , Previsões/métodos , Humanos , Conceitos Matemáticos , Modelos Biológicos , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos
18.
J Med Internet Res ; 22(9): e19788, 2020 09 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32931446

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: South Korea is among the best-performing countries in tackling the coronavirus pandemic by using mass drive-through testing, face mask use, and extensive social distancing. However, understanding the patterns of risk perception could also facilitate effective risk communication to minimize the impacts of disease spread during this crisis. OBJECTIVE: We attempt to explore patterns of community health risk perceptions of COVID-19 in South Korea using internet search data. METHODS: Google Trends (GT) and NAVER relative search volumes (RSVs) data were collected using COVID-19-related terms in the Korean language and were retrieved according to time, gender, age groups, types of device, and location. Online queries were compared to the number of daily new COVID-19 cases and tests reported in the Kaggle open-access data set for the time period of December 5, 2019, to May 31, 2020. Time-lag correlations calculated by Spearman rank correlation coefficients were employed to assess whether correlations between new COVID-19 cases and internet searches were affected by time. We also constructed a prediction model of new COVID-19 cases using the number of COVID-19 cases, tests, and GT and NAVER RSVs in lag periods (of 1-3 days). Single and multiple regressions were employed using backward elimination and a variance inflation factor of <5. RESULTS: The numbers of COVID-19-related queries in South Korea increased during local events including local transmission, approval of coronavirus test kits, implementation of coronavirus drive-through tests, a face mask shortage, and a widespread campaign for social distancing as well as during international events such as the announcement of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. Online queries were also stronger in women (r=0.763-0.823; P<.001) and age groups ≤29 years (r=0.726-0.821; P<.001), 30-44 years (r=0.701-0.826; P<.001), and ≥50 years (r=0.706-0.725; P<.001). In terms of spatial distribution, internet search data were higher in affected areas. Moreover, greater correlations were found in mobile searches (r=0.704-0.804; P<.001) compared to those of desktop searches (r=0.705-0.717; P<.001), indicating changing behaviors in searching for online health information during the outbreak. These varied internet searches related to COVID-19 represented community health risk perceptions. In addition, as a country with a high number of coronavirus tests, results showed that adults perceived coronavirus test-related information as being more important than disease-related knowledge. Meanwhile, younger, and older age groups had different perceptions. Moreover, NAVER RSVs can potentially be used for health risk perception assessments and disease predictions. Adding COVID-19-related searches provided by NAVER could increase the performance of the model compared to that of the COVID-19 case-based model and potentially be used to predict epidemic curves. CONCLUSIONS: The use of both GT and NAVER RSVs to explore patterns of community health risk perceptions could be beneficial for targeting risk communication from several perspectives, including time, population characteristics, and location.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Internet , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/psicologia , Opinião Pública , Ferramenta de Busca , Adolescente , Adulto , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/estatística & dados numéricos , Comunicação , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Saúde Pública , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto Jovem
19.
J Prev Med Public Health ; 53(4): 228-232, 2020 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32752591

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is inflicting a brutal blow on humankind, and no corner of the world has been exempted from its wrath. This study analyzes the chief control measures and the distinctive features of the responses implemented by Korea and the United States to contain COVID-19 with the goal of extracting lessons that can be applied globally. Even though both nations reported their index cases on the same day, Korea succeeded in flattening the curve, with 10 752 cases as of April 28, 2020, whereas the outbreak skyrocketed in the United States, which had more than 1 million cases at the same time. The prudent and timely execution of control strategies enabled Korea to tame the spread of the virus, whereas the United States paid a major price for its delay, although it is too early to render a conclusive verdict. Information pertaining to the number of people infected with the virus and measures instituted by the government to control the spread of COVID-19 was retrieved from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention websites and press releases. Drawing lessons from both nations, it is evident that the resolution to the COVID-19 pandemic lies in the prudent usage of available resources, proactive strategic planning, public participation, transparency in information sharing, abiding by the regulations that are put into place, and how well the plan of action is implemented.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Saúde Pública/métodos , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
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