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1.
J Environ Qual ; 49(3): 640-653, 2020 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33016407

RESUMO

Parameter estimation is needed for process management, design, and reactor scaling when values from the literature vary tremendously or are unavailable. A Bayesian approach, implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations using SAS software, was used to estimate the kinetic parameters of toluene and trichloroethylene (TCE) biodegradation by the microorganism Pseudomonas putida F1 in batch cultures. The prediction capabilities of Bayesian estimation were illustrated by comparing predicted and observed data and reported in goodness-of-fit statistics. The sensitivity analysis showed that the parameters obtained using this approach were consistent under the designated toluene and TCE concentration range. Moreover, the impact of TCE on toluene degradation kinetics was numerically exhibited, verifying the fact that TCE was able to stimulate toluene degradation; hence, TCE's presence increased the apparent maximum toluene-specific rate. Various kinetic models were explored at different degrees of complexity. At a low TCE concentration range (e.g., <2 mg L-1 ), a simplified Michaelis-Menten model (i.e., substrate half-saturation parameters approximated the inhibition parameters) was adequate to describe the reaction kinetics. However, at a higher TCE range (e.g., 5 mg L-1 ), a full-scale Michaelis-Menten model was needed to discriminate among the inhibition parameters in the model. The results demonstrated that a Bayesian estimation method is particularly useful for determining complex bioreaction kinetic parameters in the presence of a small volume of experimental data.


Assuntos
Tricloroetileno , Teorema de Bayes , Biodegradação Ambiental , Cinética , Tolueno
2.
Am J Bot ; 107(9): 1296-1308, 2020 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33001458

RESUMO

PREMISE: Recent phylogeographic work suggests the existence of latitudinal gradients in genetic diversity in northern Mexican plants, but very few studies have examined plants of the Chihuahuan Desert. Tidestromia lanuginosa is a morphologically variable annual species whose distribution includes the Chihuahuan Desert Region. Here we undertook phylogeographic analyses of chloroplast loci in this species to test whether genetic diversity and differentiation of Mexican populations of T. lanuginosa change along a latitudinal gradient and whether diversity is higher in Coahuila, consistent with ideas of lower plant community turnover during the Pleistocene. METHODS: Haplotype network, maximum likelihood tree, and Bayesian phylogenetic haplotype were reconstructed, and genetic diversity was assessed among 26 populations. Barrier analysis was used to explore barriers to gene flow. RESULTS: Four major population groups were identified, corresponding with physiographic provinces in Mexico. Each population group displayed high levels of genetic structure, haplotype, and nucleotide diversity. Diversity was highest in southern populations across the species as a whole and among the Chihuahuan Desert populations. CONCLUSIONS: Tidestromia lanuginosa provides an important example of high phylogeographic and genetic diversity in plants of northern Mexico. Barriers to gene flow among the major population groups have most likely been due to a combination of orographic, climatic, and edaphic variables. The high genetic diversity of T. lanuginosa in southern and central Coahuila is consistent with the hypothesis of full-glacial refugia for arid-adapted plants in this area, and highlights the importance of this region as a center of diversity for the Chihuahuan Desert flora.


Assuntos
Variação Genética , Refúgio de Vida Selvagem , Teorema de Bayes , México , Filogenia
3.
Environ Monit Assess ; 192(11): 683, 2020 Oct 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33026556

RESUMO

The main objective of this research was to investigate the impact of the construction of Karkheh Dam in 2001 (referred to as the intervention time), on groundwater quality. The time series of total dissolved solids (TDS) and other water quality data including potassium (K+), sodium (Na+), magnesium (Mg2+), calcium (Ca2+), bicarbonate (HCO3-), sulfate (SO42-), and chloride (Cl-) for the period between 1996 and 2012 were analyzed. The magnitude of the trend by Sen's slope estimator for HCO3-, SO42-, and TDS was 0.005, - 0.02 and - 3.04, where a decline expected for SO42- and TDS, whereas for HCO3-, an increase was expected. According to the Pettitt's test, the mean of TDS decreased from 2306.9 mg/l between 1996 and 2002 to 797.2 mg/l between 2002 and 2012. During this time, the standard deviation of TDS declined from 2187.1 to 132.0 mg/l. The results of change point detection by the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) algorithm were consistent with that of Pettitt's test providing confirmation that a change point in Ca2+, Mg2+, SO42-, and TDS time series data occurred in 2002.The findings from intervention analysis using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) technique showed that TDS concentration during the post-intervention period had an average value of 1127 mg/l compared with 1972 mg/l, before the dam construction. The time series of TDS demonstrated a decrease of about 43% following the intervention time.


Assuntos
Água Subterrânea , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Teorema de Bayes , Monitoramento Ambiental , Irã (Geográfico) , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
4.
Behav Neurosci ; 134(5): 369-383, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33001679

RESUMO

This study investigated whether the application of high definition transcranial DC stimulation (HD-tDCS) to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex reduces cue-induced food craving when combined with food-specific inhibitory control training. Using a within-subjects design, participants (N = 55) received both active and sham HD-tDCS across 2 sessions while completing a Go/No-Go task in which foods were either associated with response inhibition or response execution. Food craving was measured pre and post stimulation using a standardized questionnaire as well as desire to eat ratings for foods associated with both response inhibition and response execution in the training task. Results revealed no effect of HD-tDCS on reducing state food craving or desire to eat. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we were unable to achieve our maximum preplanned sample size or our minimum desired Bayesian evidence strength across all a priori hypotheses; however 6 of the 7 hypotheses converged with moderate or stronger evidence in favor of the null hypothesis over the alternative hypothesis. We discuss the importance of individual differences and provide recommendations for future studies with an emphasis on the importance of cognitive interventions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).


Assuntos
Fissura/fisiologia , Preferências Alimentares/fisiologia , Córtex Pré-Frontal/fisiologia , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Estudos Cross-Over , Sinais (Psicologia) , Feminino , Alimentos , Humanos , Masculino , Inquéritos e Questionários , Estimulação Transcraniana por Corrente Contínua/métodos
5.
Comput Math Methods Med ; 2020: 1391583, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33029193

RESUMO

Purpose: We aimed to analyze and evaluate the safety signals of ribavirin-interferon combination through data mining of the US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS), so as to provide reference for the rationale use of these agents in the management of relevant toxicities emerging in patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19). Methods: Reports to the FAERS from 1 January 2004 to 8 March 2020 were analyzed. The proportion of report ratio (PRR), reporting odds ratio (ROR), and Bayesian confidence interval progressive neural network (BCPNN) method were used to detect the safety signals. Results: A total of 55 safety signals were detected from the top 250 adverse event reactions in 2200 reports, but 19 signals were not included in the drug labels. All the detected adverse event reactions were associated with 13 System Organ Classes (SOC), such as gastrointestinal, blood and lymph, hepatobiliary, endocrine, and various nervous systems. The most frequent adverse events were analyzed, and the results showed that females were more likely to suffer from anemia, vomiting, neutropenia, diarrhea, and insomnia. Conclusion: The ADE (adverse drug event) signal detection based on FAERS is helpful to clarify the potential adverse events related to ribavirin-interferon combination for novel coronavirus therapy; clinicians should pay attention to the adverse reactions of gastrointestinal and blood systems, closely monitor the fluctuations of the platelet count, and carry out necessary mental health interventions to avoid serious adverse events.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Interferons/efeitos adversos , Pneumonia Viral/tratamento farmacológico , Ribavirina/efeitos adversos , Adolescente , Adulto , Sistemas de Notificação de Reações Adversas a Medicamentos , Idoso , Algoritmos , Teorema de Bayes , Mineração de Dados , Esquema de Medicação , Quimioterapia Combinada/efeitos adversos , Feminino , Humanos , Interferons/administração & dosagem , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Redes Neurais de Computação , Razão de Chances , Pandemias , Segurança do Paciente , Ribavirina/administração & dosagem , Adulto Jovem
6.
Front Immunol ; 11: 2063, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33013872

RESUMO

Background: Cases of excessive neutrophil counts in the blood in severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients have drawn significant attention. Neutrophil infiltration was also noted on the pathological findings from autopsies. It is urgent to clarify the pathogenesis of neutrophils leading to severe pneumonia in COVID-19. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on 55 COVID-19 patients classified as mild (n = 22), moderate (n = 25), and severe (n = 8) according to the Guidelines released by the National Health Commission of China. Trends relating leukocyte counts and lungs examined by chest CT scan were quantified by Bayesian inference. Transcriptional signatures of host immune cells of four COVID19 patients were analyzed by RNA sequencing of lung specimens and BALF. Results: Neutrophilia occurred in 6 of 8 severe patients at 7-19 days after symptom onset, coinciding with lesion progression. Increasing neutrophil counts paralleled lesion CT values (slope: 0.8 and 0.3-1.2), reflecting neutrophilia-induced lung injury in severe patients. Transcriptome analysis revealed that neutrophil activation was correlated with 17 neutrophil extracellular trap (NET)-associated genes in COVID-19 patients, which was related to innate immunity and interacted with T/NK/B cells, as supported by a protein-protein interaction network analysis. Conclusion: Excessive neutrophils and associated NETs could explain the pathogenesis of lung injury in COVID-19 pneumonia.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/genética , Infecções por Coronavirus/imunologia , Armadilhas Extracelulares/genética , Ativação de Neutrófilo/genética , Neutrófilos/imunologia , Pneumonia Viral/imunologia , Adulto , Idoso , Teorema de Bayes , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Feminino , Humanos , Contagem de Leucócitos , Lesão Pulmonar/imunologia , Lesão Pulmonar/patologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infiltração de Neutrófilos/imunologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/virologia , Mapas de Interação de Proteínas/imunologia , RNA Viral/genética , Estudos Retrospectivos , Transcriptoma
7.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 99(40): e22564, 2020 Oct 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33019468

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: At present, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has become a major public health issue throughout the world, especially in developing countries. Notably, traditional Chinese patent medicines (TCPMs) are of great significance in the treatment of T2DM combined with conventional Western medicine therapy. However, there is a lack of comparison among all the current common TCPMs for treating T2DM. Therefore, this study intends to explore the efficacy and safety of different TCPMs against T2DM through the Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA). METHODS: We will conduct a comprehensive and systematic search for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of TCPM for the treatment of T2DM in both Chinese and English databases published till August 2020. Two researchers will be responsible for screening eligible literature, extracting data, and assessing the risk of bias of included studies independently. Then, pairwise meta-analyses and Bayesian network meta-analyses will be conducted to assess all available evidence. In the end, data will be analyzed using STATA15.0 and WinBUGS1.4.3 software. CONCLUSION: This study will compare the efficacy and safety of different TCPMs against T2DM in detail. Our findings will provide a reliable evidence for selecting clinical treatment program and guideline development of T2DM.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/terapia , Medicina Tradicional Chinesa/métodos , Medicamentos sem Prescrição/efeitos adversos , Teorema de Bayes , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Metanálise em Rede , Medicamentos sem Prescrição/uso terapêutico , Prevalência , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Segurança , Resultado do Tratamento
8.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 5006, 2020 10 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33024095

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Surtos de Doenças , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Teorema de Bayes , Betacoronavirus/classificação , Betacoronavirus/genética , China/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/virologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Filogenia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/virologia
9.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 321, 2020 10 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33032601

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere. METHODS: We systematically extracted numbers of suspected cases tested, PCR-confirmed cases, deaths, isolated confirmed cases, and numbers of confirmed cases with an identified epidemiological link from publicly available data. We estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, using an established Bayesian framework, and reviewed the package of interventions implemented by South Korea using our extracted data, plus published literature and government sources. RESULTS: We estimated that after the initial rapid growth in cases, Rt dropped below one in early April before increasing to a maximum of 1.94 (95%CrI, 1.64-2.27) in May following outbreaks in Seoul Metropolitan Region. By mid-June, Rt was back below one where it remained until the end of our study (July 13th). Despite less stringent "lockdown" measures, strong social distancing measures were implemented in high-incidence areas and studies measured a considerable national decrease in movement in late February. Testing the capacity was swiftly increased, and protocols were in place to isolate suspected and confirmed cases quickly; however, we could not estimate the delay to isolation using our data. Accounting for just 10% of cases, individual case-based contact tracing picked up a relatively minor proportion of total cases, with cluster investigations accounting for 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst early adoption of testing and contact tracing is likely to be important for South Korea's successful outbreak control, other factors including regional implementation of strong social distancing measures likely also contributed. The high volume of testing and the low number of deaths suggest that South Korea experienced a small epidemic relative to other countries. Caution is needed in attempting to replicate the South Korean response in populations with larger more geographically widespread epidemics where finding, testing, and isolating cases that are linked to clusters may be more difficult.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Quarentena/métodos , Teorema de Bayes , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico , Busca de Comunicante/tendências , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Quarentena/tendências , República da Coreia/epidemiologia
10.
Zootaxa ; 4811(1): zootaxa.4811.1.1, 2020 Jul 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33055724

RESUMO

The planthopper genus Chionomus Fennah, 1971 (Hemiptera: Fulgoroidea: Delphacidae) currently includes three Neotropical species, removed from the polyphyletic genus Delphacodes Fieber, 1866. Morphological and molecular evidence further redefine Chionomus to include ten additional species (eight species removed from Delphacodes, two described as new, viz. Chionomus dolonus n. sp. and C. herkos n. sp.), with another four species synonymized. Phylogenetic analyses of morphological and molecular sequence data of the mitochondrial gene Cytochrome Oxidase I provide support for the monophyly of Chionomus. We use a mixed model Bayesian optimality criterion to define phylogenetic relationships among Chionomus and support paraphyly of the original definition of Chionomus (with respect to Delphacodes) and monophyly of the revised genus.


Assuntos
Hemípteros , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Genes Mitocondriais , Dados de Sequência Molecular , Filogenia
11.
Zootaxa ; 4831(1): zootaxa.4831.1.1, 2020 Aug 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33056139

RESUMO

The Australian Scirtidae genus Pseudomicrocara Armstrong, previously shown to be polyphyletic, is revised using both morphology and sequence data from the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase subunit 1 and two nuclear genes, elongation factor 1-alpha and topoisomerase. Twenty-three genera, 16 of which are new, are recognised based on morphology, primarily of the mandibles and maxillary palpi, and male and female genitalia. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses were used to examine relationships among species from 21 of the 23 recognised genera. Fifteen of the genera were recovered as distinct lineages. A further six, Accolabass Watts, Anocyphon gen. nov., Copiacyphon gen. nov., Nasutuscyphon gen. nov., Pseudomicrocara and Saprocyphon gen. nov. were considered to be genera based on both morphology and phylogenetic analysis but their species composition is uncertain and will require more work to confirm. The 17 new genera are fully described, keys are provided to all the genera in the Pseudomicrocara group, and to all the species in the genera Copiacyphon gen. nov., Spilotocyphon gen. nov., Accolabass Watts, Saltuscyphon gen. nov. and Vadumcyphon gen. nov. The male aedeagi of all new genera and species are illustrated, as are the female prehensors of some species.                The following genera are described as new: Alpestriscyphon gen. nov., Anthocara gen. nov., Anocyphon gen. nov., Copiacyphon gen. nov., Furcacyphon gen. nov., Latuscara gen. nov., Pictacara gen. nov., Nasutuscyphon gen. nov., Nektriscyphon gen. nov., Pumiliocara gen. nov., Ruborcara gen. nov., Saltuscyphon gen. nov., Saprocyphon gen. nov., Sisyracyphon gen. nov., Spilotocyphon gen. nov., Tenebriocyphon gen. nov. and Vadumcyphon gen. nov. A total of 45 new combinations are proposed. The following species are described as new: Accolabass monteithi sp. nov.; Alpestriscyphon bartlefrere sp. nov., Al. spurgeon sp. nov.; Anocyphon lepus sp. nov.; Copiacyphon brindaleensis sp. nov., C. cardinalis sp. nov., C. dytikos sp. nov.; Pumiliocara peneparva sp. nov.; Ruborcara saintae sp. nov.; Saltuscyphon montanus sp. nov., Sal. teraniaensis sp. nov.; Saprocyphon bithongensis sp. nov.; Sisyracyphon brisbanensis sp. nov., S. bulburinensis sp. nov.; Spilotocyphon occidentalis sp. nov., Sp. orientalis sp. nov., Sp. zwicki sp. nov.; Vadumcyphon centralis sp. nov., V. rugosus sp. nov. A checklist of all Australian taxa in the redefined Pseudomicrocara group is included.                Sequence data of the Argentinian species Pseudomicrocara antarctica (Fairmaire) is included. Phylogenetic analyses place this species as a distinct lineage within the Pseudomicrocara group.


Assuntos
Besouros , Animais , Austrália , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Masculino , Filogenia
12.
Zootaxa ; 4794(1): zootaxa.4794.1.1, 2020 Jun 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33056691

RESUMO

The Nepalese genus Microplinthus Zherichin, 1987 is revised. The following 25 new species are described (type locality in parentheses): M. annapurnae (Annapurna Himal, Rambrong Danda, 28°23'N 84°13'E), M. arunensis (Khandbari Distr., forest S. Mansimgma, 27°30'N 87°20'E), M. brevipennis (Manaslu Himal, Bhara Pokhari, 28°18'N 84°28'E), M. durga (W Pokhara, near Ghorepani, 28°24'N 83°42'E), M. franzi (Kaligandakhi valley, between Lethe and Tukuche, 28°36'N 83°38'E), M. ganesha (Ganesh Himal, Rupchet, 28°05'N 85°09'E), M. godawaricus (Kathmandu, Phulchowki, 27°34'N 85°24'E), M. gupta (Helambu Himal, upper Chipling, 27°53'N 85°28'E), M. helambuensis (Central Nepal, between Mulkharka and Thare Pati, 28°08'N 85°22'E-28°02'N 85°29'E), M. jaegeri (W Pokhara, Mt. Panchase, 28°13'N 83°48'E), M. karnalicus (Karnali Distr. 5 km E Charta, 29°18'N 82°20'E), M. kaskianus (Kaski Distr., above Pothana, 28°19'N 83°51'E), M. kaumarya (Karnali Distr., Gotichaur valley, 29°12'10"N 82°18'56"E), M. khandbariensis (Khandbari Distr., above Seduwa, 27°34'N 87°15'E), M. koshianus (Koshi Prov., SW Chichilla, 27°27.01'N 87°13.13'E), M. letheensis (Kaligandakhi valley, between Lethe and Tukuche, 28°36'N 83°38'E), M. longipennis (Manaslu Himal, Bhara Pokhari lekh, 28°18'24"N 84°28'06"E), M. messneri (Panchtar Distr., Dhorpar Kharka, 27°05'N 87°55'E), M. newarorum (Phulchowki Distr., Lalitpur, 27°34'N 85°24'E), M. phulchowkianus (Kathmandu, Phulchowki, 27°34'N 85°24'E), M. rugosus (Solokhumbu Distr., Lamiura Danda, 27°34'N 86° 30'E), M. schmidti (Manaslu Himal, Dudh Pokhari lekh, 28°20'N 84°35'E), M. sherpa (Khandbari Distr., Bakan, 27°38'N 87°12'E), M. tamanus (Rolwaling Himal, upper Simigau, 27°51'N 86°15'E), M. yeti (Hinku Distr., Drangka Khola bridge, 27°35'N 86°47'E). A key for the identification of all species of Microplinthus is given. A phylogenetic analysis based on morphological characters of the species referable to the genera Falsanchonus, Microniphades and Microplinthus was carried out, implementing Bayesian Inference and Maximum Parsimony. Results indicate that the genera Falsanchonus and Microniphades are paraphyletic and are here treated as junior synonyms of Microplinthus.


Assuntos
Besouros , Gorgulhos , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Filogenia
13.
Zootaxa ; 4839(1): zootaxa.4839.1.1, 2020 Aug 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33056794

RESUMO

Anchylorhynchus Schoenherr is a genus of palm-associated weevils currently including 22 described species in the Neotropics. These weevils engage in brood pollination interactions with species in at least four genera of palms (Arecaceae), representing an emerging system for the study of mutualisms. Here we revise the taxonomy of Anchylorhynchus and propose the first phylogenetic hypothesis for the group, based on morphology. Anchylorhynchus chrysomeloides sp. nov., Anchylorhynchus goiano sp. nov., Anchylorhynchus imitator sp. nov., Anchylorhynchus latipes sp. nov., Anchylorhynchus multisquamis sp. nov. and Anchylorhynchus rectus sp. nov. are described, Anchylorhynchus gottsbergerorum Vanin is a new junior subjective synonym of Anchylorhynchus bicarinatus O'Brien, and Anchylorhynchus eriospathae Bondar and Anchylorhynchus pictipennis Hustache are new junior subjective synonyms of Anchylorhynchus tremolerasi Hustache, resulting in 25 valid species for the genus. We provide genus and species descriptions with a new dichotomous key to the species and updated information on geography and host associations based on museum records and extensive new collections. We also produce a new morphological matrix with 113 characters, 11 of them based on measurements while accounting for allometry, correlation and power to delimit groups. The software pipeline to produce these characters was encoded in a graphical user interface named DiscretzR, made available here. Analysis of this matrix under parsimony and Bayesian inference resulted in strong support for the monophyly of Anchylorhynchus, but weaker support for most clades within the genus. Reconstruction of the host plant associations indicates that the common ancestor of Anchylorhynchus visited flowers of Syagrus Mart., with later transitions to other genera restricted to one of the major clades of Anchylorhynchus. This taxonomic revision with the first phylogeny for the group provides a foundation for future evolutionary studies in the genus.


Assuntos
Besouros , Gorgulhos , Distribuição Animal , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Filogenia
14.
Zootaxa ; 4835(1): zootaxa.4835.1.1, 2020 Aug 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33056840

RESUMO

Nearctic species of Lasiopogon Loew comprising the bivittatus section (the bivittatus group sensu Cannings 2002) are revised, with the description of 13 new species, elevation of one subspecies to species, and redescriptions of 13 previously described taxa. An updated key to western Nearctic Lasiopogon adults is provided, as are notes on taxonomy, distribution, phylogeny, and ecology. A Bayesian species tree for 67 species of Lasiopogon is estimated from one mitochondrial (COI) and three nuclear protein-coding loci (AATS, PEPCK, Wg), and compared to a previously published morphology-based phylogeny. The following new species of Lasiopogon are described (assigned to the bivittatus section except as noted): L. anaphlecter sp. nov., L. apoecus sp. nov., L. asilomar sp. nov., L. bitumineus sp. nov., L. canningsi sp. nov., L. condylophorus sp. nov., L. esau sp. nov., L. karli sp. nov. (assigned to cinereus group of opaculus section), L. nelsoni sp. nov., L. odontotus sp. nov., L. sierra sp. nov., L. tumulicola sp. nov., L. wilcoxi sp. nov.; L. puyallupi Cole Wilcox 1938 stat. nov. is elevated from subspecies; and the following previously described species are considered valid: L. actius Melander 1923, L. albidus Cole Wilcox 1938, L. arenicola (Osten Sacken 1877), L. bivittatus Loew 1866, L. californicus Cole Wilcox 1938, L. dimicki Cole Wilcox 1938, L. drabicolum Cole 1916, L. gabrieli Cole Wilcox 1938, L. littoris Cole 1924, L. ripicola Melander 1923, L. willametti Cole Wilcox 1938, L. zonatus Cole Wilcox 1938. The species L. martinensis Cole Wilcox 1938 is considered valid but transferred to the tetragrammus group of the opaculus section.


Assuntos
Asteraceae , Dípteros , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Filogenia
15.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 4939, 2020 10 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33009390

RESUMO

Acoustic communication is enabled by the evolution of specialised hearing and sound producing organs. In this study, we performed a large-scale macroevolutionary study to understand how both hearing and sound production evolved and affected diversification in the insect order Orthoptera, which includes many familiar singing insects, such as crickets, katydids, and grasshoppers. Using phylogenomic data, we firmly establish phylogenetic relationships among the major lineages and divergence time estimates within Orthoptera, as well as the lineage-specific and dynamic patterns of evolution for hearing and sound producing organs. In the suborder Ensifera, we infer that forewing-based stridulation and tibial tympanal ears co-evolved, but in the suborder Caelifera, abdominal tympanal ears first evolved in a non-sexual context, and later co-opted for sexual signalling when sound producing organs evolved. However, we find little evidence that the evolution of hearing and sound producing organs increased diversification rates in those lineages with known acoustic communication.


Assuntos
Acústica , Evolução Biológica , Gafanhotos/classificação , Gafanhotos/genética , Filogenia , Vocalização Animal , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Genoma Mitocondrial , Gafanhotos/anatomia & histologia , Audição/fisiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Som , Fatores de Tempo , Transcriptoma/genética
18.
Zhongguo Zhong Yao Za Zhi ; 45(15): 3533-3538, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32893541

RESUMO

To explore the general characteristics of adverse drug reactions/adverse events(ADR/AE) in patients after using Shujin Jianyao Pills, and explore risk warning signals, this study analyzed 166 cases of ADR/AE reports of Shujin Jianyao Pills collected from 2005 to 2017 based on the National Center for ADR Monitoring spontaneous reporting system(SRS). And the descriptive statistical method was used to analyze general characteristics. The results showed that among the 166 ADR/AE cases, 106 cases were female patients, accounting for 63.86%. Middle-aged and elderly people aged 45 to 64 accounted for the largest proportion(82 cases, 49.40%), which were followed by elderly aged 65 and over(48 cases, 28.91%). ADR/AE involved a wide range of systems and organs, of which skin and its accessories were the most damaged(30 cases, 12.93%), which were followed by systemic damage(27 cases, 11.64%). The top 10 ADR/AE manifestations were rash(15 cases, 6.33%), nausea(14 cases, 5.91%), dizziness(14 cases, 5.91%), abdominal pain(12 cases, 5.06%), pruritus(11 cases, 4.64%), low back pain(11 cases, 4.64%), vomiting(10 cases, 4.22%), hepatocyte damage(9 cases, 3.80%), headache(9 cases, 3.80%), and diarrhea(7 cases, 2.95%). Bayesian confidence propagation neural network(BCPNN) was used to mine the ADR/AE risk early warning signal of Shujin Jianyao Pills, and the propensity score method was used to control the balance of confounding factors. The results suggested warning signs for nausea, diarrhea, rash, and dizziness, vomiting, abdominal pain, headache, liver cell damage. This study provides a basis for the post-marke-ting safety evaluation of Shujin Jianyao Pills, and can provide guidance for its rational clinical use and risk management.


Assuntos
Efeitos Colaterais e Reações Adversas Relacionados a Medicamentos , Medicamentos de Ervas Chinesas , Sistemas de Notificação de Reações Adversas a Medicamentos , Idoso , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Farmacovigilância , Gestão de Riscos
19.
Zhongguo Zhong Yao Za Zhi ; 45(16): 3863-3870, 2020 Aug.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32893582

RESUMO

This study aimed to establish a rapid and accurate method for identification of raw and vinegar-processed rhizomes of Curcuma kwangsiensis, in order to predict the content of curcumin compounds for scientific evaluation. A complete set of bionics recognition mode was adopted. The digital odor signal of raw and vinegar-processed rhizomes of Curcuma kwangsiensis were obtained by e-nose, and analyzed by back propagation(BP) neural network algorithm, with the accuracy, the sensitivity and specificity in discriminant model, correlation coefficient as well as the mean square error in regression model as the evaluation indexes. The experimental results showed that the three indexes of the e-nose signal discrimination model established by the neural network algorithm were 100% in training set, correction set and prediction set, which were obviously better than the traditional decision tree, naive bayes, support vector machine, K nearest neighbor and boost classification, and could accurately differentiate the raw and vinegar products. Correlation coefficient and mean square error of the regression model in prediction set were 0.974 8 and 0.117 5 respectively, and could well predict curcumin compounds content in Curcuma kwangsiensis, and demonstrate the superiority of the simulation biometrics model in the analysis of traditional Chinese medicine. By BP neural network algorithm, e-nose odor fingerprint could quickly, conveniently and accurately realize the discrimination and regression, which suggested that more bionics information acquisition and identification patterns could be combined in the field of traditional Chinese medicine, so as to provide ideas and methods for the rapid evaluation and stan-dardization of the quality of traditional Chinese medicine.


Assuntos
Curcumina , Nariz Eletrônico , Ácido Acético , Teorema de Bayes , Curcuma , Redes Neurais de Computação , Rizoma
20.
BMC Med ; 18(1): 271, 2020 09 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32883276

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: New York City was the first major urban center of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA. Cases are clustered in the city, with certain neighborhoods experiencing more cases than others. We investigate whether potential socioeconomic factors can explain between-neighborhood variation in the COVID-19 test positivity rate. METHODS: Data were collected from 177 Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTA) in New York City (99.9% of the population). We fit multiple Bayesian Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) mixed models using positive COVID-19 tests as the outcome, a set of 11 representative demographic, economic, and health-care associated ZCTA-level parameters as potential predictors, and the total number of COVID-19 tests as the exposure. The BYM model includes both spatial and nonspatial random effects to account for clustering and overdispersion. RESULTS: Multiple regression approaches indicated a consistent, statistically significant association between detected COVID-19 cases and dependent children (under 18 years old), population density, median household income, and race. In the final model, we found that an increase of only 5% in young population is associated with a 2.3% increase in COVID-19 positivity rate (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.4 to 4.2%, p=0.021). An increase of 10,000 people per km2 is associated with a 2.4% (95% CI 0.6 to 4.2%, p=0.011) increase in positivity rate. A decrease of $10,000 median household income is associated with a 1.6% (95% CI 0.7 to 2.4%, p<0.001) increase in COVID-19 positivity rate. With respect to race, a decrease of 10% in White population is associated with a 1.8% (95% CI 0.8 to 2.8%, p<0.001) increase in positivity rate, while an increase of 10% in Black population is associated with a 1.1% (95% CI 0.3 to 1.8%, p<0.001) increase in positivity rate. The percentage of Hispanic (p=0.718), Asian (p=0.966), or Other (p=0.588) populations were not statistically significant factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate associations between neighborhoods with a large dependent youth population, densely populated, low-income, and predominantly black neighborhoods and COVID-19 test positivity rate. The study highlights the importance of public health management during and after the current COVID-19 pandemic. Further work is warranted to fully understand the mechanisms by which these factors may have affected the positivity rate, either in terms of the true number of cases or access to testing.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Características de Residência , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adolescente , Teorema de Bayes , Betacoronavirus , Criança , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Cidade de Nova Iorque/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pobreza
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