Advances in the development of new vaccines for tuberculosis and Brazil's role in the effort forward the end TB strategy.

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to be the world's leading killer of infectious diseases. Despite global efforts to gradually reduce the number of annual deaths and the incidence of this disease, the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic caused decreased in TB detection and affected the prompt treatment TB which led to a setback to the 2019 rates. However, the development and testing of new TB vaccines has not stopped and now presents the possibility of implanting in the next five years a new vaccine that is affordable and might be used in the various key vulnerable populations affected by TB. Then, this assay aimed to discuss the main vaccines developed against TB that shortly could be selected and used worldwide, and additionally, evidence the Brazilian potential candidates' vaccines in developing in Brazil that could be considered among those in level advanced to TB end.

Coinfections and In-Hospital Mortality in a Group of Patients With HIV/AIDS: A Longitudinal Study.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a global public health problem. Coinfections in HIV patients are frequent complications that increase their mortality. The aim of this study was to assess coinfections and in-hospital mortality in a group of patients infected with HIV in Colombia. A retrospective longitudinal study was carried out. Patients treated in 4 highly complex clinics in Colombia between 2015 and 2023 were included. The cases were identified from International Classification of Diseases codes related to HIV. Sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory and pharmacological variables were collected. Descriptive, bivariate, and multivariable analyses were performed. Of the 249 patients identified, 79.1% were men, and the median age was 38.0 years. Approximately 81.1% had a diagnosis of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). Coinfections caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (24.1%) and Treponema pallidum (20.5%) were the most frequent. A total of 20.5% of the patients had sepsis, 12.4% had septic shock, and the fatality rate was 15.7%. Antibiotics and antifungals were used in 88.8% and 53.8%, respectively, of the patients. Patients with a diagnosis of HIV before admission, those infected with M. tuberculosis, and those who presented with sepsis were more likely to die, whereas patients who received antiretroviral agent treatment before admission presented a lower risk. In this study, most HIV patients were in an advanced stage of the disease. Coinfection with M. tuberculosis was common and was associated with an increased risk of death. Previous HIV diagnosis and sepsis also increased the risk. Approximately half of the patients with a previous HIV diagnosis were receiving antiretroviral therapy and had a better prognosis.

[Tuberculosis in childhood and adolescence: prevalence and factors associated with treatment abandonment]. / Tuberculose na infância e adolescência: prevalência e fatores associados ao abandono do tratamento.

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that remains a serious public health problem worldwide. In the pediatric population, the knowledge about the factors that lead to the abandonment of TB treatment is limited, especially in regions with a high prevalence of the disease. This study aimed to identify the prevalence and risk factors associated with TB treatment abandonment in children and adolescents. A cross-sectional study was carried out using data obtained from TB notifications from the São Paulo State Tuberculosis Patient Control System, Brazil, for individuals aged between 0 and 18 years, from January 2009 to December 2019. The crude and adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated with a 95% confidence interval, using the Poisson regression model to identify associations between the outcome of treatment abandonment and the sociodemographic, clinical-epidemiological, diagnostic and therapeutic factors of TB cases with complete information. Of the 12,256 cases analyzed, 941 individuals abandoned treatment. The highest prevalence rate of treatment abandonment occurs among Black or brown adolescents, those over 11 years of age and those deprived of their liberty. Other characteristics associated with treatment abandonment include: being a person living with HIV/AIDS, having a history of previous TB treatment, using illicit substances and using a self-administered TB treatment regimen. Knowing the profile of the patient most likely to abandon TB treatment makes it possible to devise more effective strategies focused on adherence to drug treatment.

A tuberculose (TB) é uma doença infectocontagiosa que ainda representa um grave problema de saúde pública no mundo. Na população pediátrica, os fatores que levam ao abandono do tratamento da TB, especialmente em regiões de elevada prevalência da doença, são pouco conhecidos. Portanto, este estudo objetivou identificar a prevalência e os fatores de risco associados ao abandono do tratamento da TB em crianças e adolescentes. Foi realizado um estudo transversal com dados obtidos das notificações de TB provenientes do Sistema de Controle de Pacientes com Tuberculose do Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, em indivíduos com idade entre 0 e 18 anos, no período de janeiro de 2009 a dezembro de 2019. Estimou-se a razão de prevalência bruta e ajustada com intervalo de 95% de confiança, utilizando-se o modelo de regressão de Poisson para identificar associações entre o desfecho abandono do tratamento com os fatores sociodemográficos, clínico-epidemiológicos, diagnósticos e terapêuticos dos casos de TB, contendo informações completas. Dos 12.256 casos analisados, 941 indivíduos abandonaram o tratamento. A maior taxa de prevalência de abandono do tratamento ocorre entre os adolescentes pretos ou pardos, acima de 11 anos e privados de liberdade. Outras características associadas ao abandono do tratamento incluem: serem pessoas vivendo com HIV/aids, ter histórico de tratamento anterior para TB, fazer uso de substâncias ilícitas e utilizar o regime de tratamento de TB autoadministrado. Concluiu-se que conhecer o perfil do paciente com maiores chances para abandonar o tratamento da TB permite elaborar estratégias focadas na adesão ao tratamento medicamentoso mais efetivas.

La tuberculosis (TB) es una enfermedad infectocontagiosa que sigue siendo un grave problema de salud pública mundial. Se sabe poco sobre los factores que conducen al abandono del tratamiento de la TB en la población pediátrica, especialmente en regiones con alta prevalencia de la enfermedad. Por lo tanto, este estudio tuvo como objetivo identificar la prevalencia y los factores de riesgo asociados con el abandono del tratamiento de la TB en niños y adolescentes. Se trató de un estudio transversal realizado a partir de los datos de notificaciones de TB del Sistema de Control de Pacientes con Tuberculosis del Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, recopilados de individuos con edades comprendidas entre 0 y 18 años, en el período de enero de 2009 a diciembre de 2019. La relación de prevalencia bruta y ajustada se estimó con un intervalo de 95% de confianza; y se utilizó el modelo de regresión de Poisson para identificar las asociaciones entre el resultado del abandono del tratamiento y los factores sociodemográficos, clínico-epidemiológicos, diagnósticos y terapéuticos de los casos de TB que contienen información completa. De los 12.256 casos analizados, 941 individuos habían abandonado el tratamiento. La mayor tasa de prevalencia de abandono del tratamiento se dio entre adolescentes negros o pardos, mayores de 11 años y los privados de libertad. Otras características asociadas con el abandono del tratamiento fueron personas que viven con VIH/sida, tener antecedentes de tratamiento previo de TB, usar sustancias ilícitas y utilizar el régimen de tratamiento de TB autoadministrado. Se concluyó que conocer el perfil de los pacientes con mayor tendencia a abandonar el tratamiento de la TB nos permite desarrollar estrategias efectivas enfocadas en una adherencia al tratamiento farmacológico.

Effects of low dose computed tomography (LDCT) on lung cancer screening on incidence and mortality in regions with high tuberculosis prevalence: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer screening (LCS) using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is a strategy for early-stage diagnosis. The implementation of LDCT screening in countries with a high prevalence/incidence of tuberculosis (TB) is controversial. This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to identify whether LCS using LDCT increases early-stage diagnosis and decreases mortality, as well as the false-positive rate, in regions with a high prevalence of TB. METHODS/DESIGN: Studies were identified by searching BVS, PUBMED, EMBASE, and SCOPUS. RCT and cohort studies (CS) that show the effects of LDCT in LC screening on mortality and secondary outcomes were eligible. Two independent reviewers evaluated eligibility and a third judged disagreements. We used the Systematic Review Data Repository (SRDR+) to extract the metadata and record decisions. The analyses were stratified by study design and incidence of TB. We used the Cochrane "Risk of bias" assessment tool. RESULTS: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) were used. Thirty-seven papers were included, referring to 22 studies (10 RCTs and 12 cohorts). Few studies were from regions with a high incidence of TB (One RCT and four cohorts). Nonetheless, the evidence is compatible with European and USA studies. RCTs and CS also had consistent results. There is an increase in early-stage (I-II) diagnoses and reduced LC mortality in the LCDT arm compared to the control. Although false-positive rates varied, they stayed within the 20 to 30% range. DISCUSSION: This is the first meta-analysis of LDCT for LCS focused on its benefits in regions with an increased incidence/prevalence of TB. Although the specificity of Lung-RADS was higher in participants without TB sequelae than in those with TB sequelae, our findings point out that the difference does not invalidate implementing LDCT LCS in these regions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Systematic review registration Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42022309581.

Cost-effectiveness and health impact of screening and treatment of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among formerly incarcerated individuals in Brazil: a Markov modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Individuals who were formerly incarcerated have high tuberculosis incidence, but are generally not considered among the risk groups eligible for tuberculosis prevention. We investigated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection screening and tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) for individuals who were formerly incarcerated in Brazil. METHODS: Using published evidence for Brazil, we constructed a Markov state transition model estimating tuberculosis-related health outcomes and costs among individuals who were formerly incarcerated, by simulating transitions between health states over time. The analysis compared tuberculosis infection screening and TPT, to no screening, considering a combination of M tuberculosis infection tests and TPT regimens. We quantified health effects as reductions in tuberculosis cases, tuberculosis deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We assessed costs from a tuberculosis programme perspective. We report intervention cost-effectiveness as the incremental costs per DALY averted, and tested how results changed across subgroups of the target population. FINDINGS: Compared with no intervention, an intervention incorporating tuberculin skin testing and treatment with 3 months of isoniazid and rifapentine would avert 31 (95% uncertainty interval 14-56) lifetime tuberculosis cases and 4·1 (1·4-5·8) lifetime tuberculosis deaths per 1000 individuals, and cost US$242 per DALY averted. All test and regimen combinations were cost-effective compared with no screening. Younger age, longer incarceration, and more recent prison release were each associated with significantly greater health benefits and more favourable cost-effectiveness ratios, although the intervention was cost-effective for all subgroups examined. INTERPRETATION: M tuberculosis infection screening and TPT for individuals who were formerly incarcerated appears cost-effective, and would provide valuable health gains. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Description of BCG and Tuberculosis Disease in a Cohort of 79 Patients with Chronic Granulomatous Disease.

PURPOSE: Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is an inherited immunodeficiency caused by pathogenic variants of genes encoding the enzyme complex NADPH oxidase. In countries where tuberculosis (TB) is endemic and the Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine is routinely administered, mycobacteria are major disease-causing pathogens in CGD. However, information on the clinical evolution and treatment of mycobacterial diseases in patients with CGD is limited. The present study describes the adverse reactions to BCG and TB in Mexican patients with CGD. METHODS: Patients with CGD who were evaluated at the Immunodeficiency Laboratory of the National Institute of Pediatrics between 2013 and 2024 were included. Medical records were reviewed to determine the clinical course and treatment of adverse reactions to BCG and TB disease. RESULTS: A total of 79 patients with CGD were included in this study. Adverse reactions to BCG were reported in 55 (72%) of 76 patients who received the vaccine. Tuberculosis was diagnosed in 19 (24%) patients. Relapse was documented in three (10%) of 31 patients with BGC-osis and six (32%) of 19 patients with TB, despite antituberculosis treatment. There was no difference in the frequency of BCG and TB disease between patients with pathogenic variants of the X-linked CYBB gene versus recessive variants. CONCLUSIONS: This report highlights the importance of considering TB in endemic areas and BCG complications in children with CGD to enable appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to improve prognosis and reduce the risk of relapse.

The Burden and Risk Factors Associated with Infectious Diseases among Refugees in a Camp for Migrants in Porto Alegre: A Cross-Sectional Survey.

Refugees usually face a disproportionate burden of infectious diseases. Recently, Brazil has experienced an influx of refugees which demands the need for scaling up public health efforts to address the challenges. The research sought to study the burden and risk factors associated with infectious diseases among refugees received in the city of Porto Alegre. This was a cross-sectional study of 261 newly arrived refugees. The study sample was predominantly composed of Venezuelans (50.6%) and Haitians (44%), male (146: 56.7%), single (30.7%), with an average age of 33.38 (± 7.30) years. The average schooling was 10.42 (± 2.09) years. Diseases with the highest prevalence were influenza, whooping cough, diphtheria, and tuberculosis. There was significant association between the country of origin and presence of symptoms for infectious and contagious diseases, which warrants targeted interventions for reducing the incidence of these diseases among refugees in Brazil.

Regional disparities in BCG vaccination coverage and tuberculosis incidence in infants among Brazilian states.

Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination and tuberculosis (TB) incidence in children under 1 year of age are critical public health indicators in Brazil. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic disrupted vaccination coverage (VC), potentially impacting TB incidence. Understanding regional disparities in VC and TB incidence can inform targeted interventions. We conducted an observational and ecological study using BCG vaccination data (2019-21) and TB incidence (2020-22) for all births in Brazil. Data were collected from public health databases, stratified by state, and analyzed using descriptive and analytical statistics to explore VC and TB incidence. Between 2019 and 2021, average BCG VC was 79.59%, with significant variation among states (P < .001). Only four states achieved minimum recommended coverage (>90%). TB incidence varied significantly among states (P = .003). There was a notable decline in VC from 2019 (90.72%) to 2021 (78.67%) (P < .001). This study highlights regional disparities in BCG VC and TB incidence among Brazilian states. Lower VC post-pandemic may increase TB incidence, requiring targeted interventions in states with inadequate coverage. The findings underscore the importance of sustaining vaccination programs amidst public health crises and implementing strategies to enhance access and uptake.

A comparative analysis of classical and machine learning methods for forecasting TB/HIV co-infection.

TB/HIV coinfection poses a complex public health challenge. Accurate forecasting of future trends is essential for efficient resource allocation and intervention strategy development. This study compares classical statistical and machine learning models to predict TB/HIV coinfection cases stratified by gender and the general populations. We analyzed time series data using exponential smoothing and ARIMA to establish the baseline trend and seasonality. Subsequently, machine learning models (SVR, XGBoost, LSTM, CNN, GRU, CNN-GRU, and CNN-LSTM) were employed to capture the complex dynamics and inherent non-linearities of TB/HIV coinfection data. Performance metrics (MSE, MAE, sMAPE) and the Diebold-Mariano test were used to evaluate the model performance. Results revealed that Deep Learning models, particularly Bidirectional LSTM and CNN-LSTM, significantly outperformed classical methods. This demonstrates the effectiveness of Deep Learning for modeling TB/HIV coinfection time series and generating more accurate forecasts.

Tuberculosis treatment loss to follow-up in children exposed at home: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Loss to follow-up (LTFU) from tuberculosis (TB) treatment and care is a significant public health problem. It is important to understand what drives LTFU in children - a population whose treatment and management depend on an adult caregiver - to better provide support services to families affected by TB. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of household contacts in Lima, Peru (2009-12). Using multilevel logistic regression analysis, we explored individual-level characteristics of children and their adult household members with TB disease to identify risk factors for LTFU among children initiated on treatment for TB. Results: A total of 154 child (0-14 years) household contacts were diagnosed with TB and initiated on treatment. While most (n = 133, 86.4%) had a successful outcome, 20 (13.0%) children were LTFU. Six (30.0%) children were LTFU within three months, nine (45.0%) between five to seven months, and three (15.0%) after seven months of treatment being initiated. In univariable analysis, children with index patients above 25 years of age had decreased odds of being LTFU (odds ratio = 0.26; 95% confidence interval = 0.08-0.84) compared to children with index patients 25 years or younger. Conclusions: In this cohort, more than 10% of children sick with TB who were exposed to the disease at home were LTFU. An integrated, family-centred TB prevention and management approach may reduce barriers to a child completing their course of TB treatment.

Temporal Pattern and Spatial Distribution of Tuberculosis Prevalence Associated with Multimorbidity in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Four main chronic conditions may be involved in the tuberculosis pathogenic process and/or clinical evolution: HIV/AIDS, diabetes mellitus, mental illness, and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal pattern of tuberculosis (TB) associated with multimorbidity in Brazil. METHODS: Ecological study use data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN), collected from the electronic portal of the Department of Informatics of the SUS (DATASUS). These data included TB cases that were reported between 2007 and 2021 and were associated with two or more chronic clinical health conditions (multimorbidity). RESULTS: A total of 7,795 cases of TB associated with multimorbidity were recorded, with an average growth trend of 4.6% per year (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.3-5.9; p<0.001) and higher growth in the first temporal segment (2007 to 2011) (8.9%; 95%CI: 4.2-13.9; p=0.002). The spatial analysis, after Bayesian smoothing, highlighted the main municipalities states of the study, namely: São Paulo (19.8%; n = 297), Porto Alegre (23.6%; n = 354), and Rio de Janeiro (44.8%; n = 672). The proportion of extremely poor (ß=-0.002), the bolsa família program (ß=0.002), the average per-person income (ß=0.001), and the percentage of the population living in households with a density of more than 2 people per bedroom (ß=0.001) were related to chronic health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: These findings will stimulate public action to manage this situation. However, as this is still a recent topic in the literature, we encourage the development of studies on the synergistic characteristics of TB and other clinical conditions.

The seroconversion history to SARS-CoV-2 in Indigenous people from Brazil - the interplay between exposure, vaccination, and tuberculosis.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant loss of human lives and a worldwide decline in quality of life. Although our understanding of the pandemic has improved significantly since the beginning, the natural history of COVID-19 and its impacts on under-represented populations, such as Indigenous people from America, remain largely unknown. We performed a retrospective serological survey with two Brazilian Indigenous populations (n=624), Tupiniquim and Guarani-Mbyá. Samples were collected between September 2020 and July 2021: a period comprising the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the beginning of COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil. Seroconversions against S and N antigens were assessed using three different commercially available ELISA kits. Samples were also used to assess the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) in the same population (n=529). Seroconversion against SARS-CoV-2 antigens was considered positive if at least one of the three ELISA kits detected levels of specific antibodies above the threshold specified by the manufacturer. In this sense, we report 56.0% (n=349/623) of seroconverted individuals. Relative seroconversion peaked after introduction of the Coronavac vaccine in February 2021. Vaccination increased the production of anti-S IgG from 3.9% to 48.6%. Our results also indicated that 11.0% (n=46/417) of all individuals were positive for TB. Seroconversion to SARS-CoV-2 was similar between individuals with positive tuberculosis test results to those with negative test results. Most vaccinated individuals seroconverted to SARS-CoV-2, indicating that Coronavac may be as protective in individuals from these indigenous groups as observed in the general Brazilian population. COVID-19 severity was minimal regardless of incomplete vaccine coverage, suggesting that vaccination may not be the only factor protecting individuals from severe COVID-19. Tuberculosis is highly prevalent and not associated with increased seroconversion to SARS-CoV-2.

Surveillance of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil: a space-time approach.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the epidemiological, spatial, and temporal pattern of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil during the period from 2001 to 2020. METHODS: Ecological study using space-time analysis techniques. It included cases of TB-HIV coinfection registered in Brazil from 2001 to 2020. The temporal trend analysis was performed using segmented regression by Joinpoint regression. For spatial analysis, Moran indices were calculated and choropleth maps were produced using TerraView and QGIS software. RESULTS: A stable temporal trend was observed in the incidence rates of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil during the analyzed period. In addition, high-risk areas for coinfection located in states in the North, Southeast, South, and Midwest regions were identified. CONCLUSION: There was stability in the incidence of TB-HIV coinfection in Brazil over the last 20 years and heterogeneous geographic distribution of risk areas for the condition.

Vulnerability to loss of follow-up and death due to tuberculosis among homeless individuals in Brazil: a retrospective cohort study. / Vulnerabilidade à perda de seguimento e ao óbito por tuberculose nas pessoas em situação de rua no Brasil: um estudo de coorte retrospectiva.

This retrospective cohort study identified factors associated with loss of follow-up and death due to tuberculosis (TB) in the homeless population (HP) in Brazil, estimating odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) by multinomial logistic regression. A total of 3,831 TB cases in this population were analyzed, of which 57.0% had unfavorable outcomes. Loss of follow-up was associated with: history of abandonment (OR=2.38; 95%CI 2.05-2.77), unknown HIV serology (OR=1.79; 95%CI 1.38-2.32), HIV coinfection (OR=1.73; 95%CI 1.46-2.06), drug use (OR=1.54; 95%CI 1.31-1.80), age (OR=0.98; 95%CI 0.97-0.99), mixed clinical form (OR=0.64; 95%CI 0.42-0.97), extrapulmonary form (OR=0.46; 95%CI 0.29-0.73), government beneficiary (OR=0.64; 95%CI 0.50-0.81), and supervised treatment (OR=0.52; 95%CI 0.45-0.60). Regarding death, the following were associated: age (OR=1.03; 95%CI 1.01-1.05), unknown HIV serology (OR=2.39; 95%CI 1.48-3.86), alcohol consumption (OR=1.81; 95%CI 1.27-2.58), and supervised treatment (OR=0.70; 95%CI 0.51-0.96). Overlapping vulnerabilities in the health-disease process of homeless individuals with TB were observed, requiring comprehensive and cross-sectoral care practices.

Esta coorte retrospectiva identificou os fatores associados à perda de seguimento e ao óbito por tuberculose na população em situação de rua no Brasil, estimando-se as odds ratios (OR) e seus intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%) por regressão logística multinominal. Analisaram-se 3.831 casos de tuberculose nessa população, dos quais 57,0% tiveram desfechos desfavoráveis. Associaram-se à perda de seguimento: histórico de abandono (OR=2,38; IC95% 2,05-2,77), desconhecimento da sorologia do HIV (OR=1,79; IC95% 1,38-2,32) e coinfecção com HIV (OR=1,73; IC95% 1,46-2,06), uso de drogas (OR=1,54; IC95% 1,31-1,80), idade (OR=0,98; IC95% 0,97-0,99), forma clínica mista (OR=0,64; IC95% 0,42-0,97) e extrapulmonar (OR=0,46; IC95% 0,29-0,73), auxílio de programa governamental (OR=0,64; IC95% 0,50-0,81) e tratamento supervisionado (OR=0,52; IC95% 0,45-0,60). Em relação ao óbito, associaram-se: idade (OR=1,03; IC95% 1,01-1,05), desconhecimento da sorologia do HIV (OR=2,39; IC95% 1,48-3,86), uso de álcool (OR=1,81; IC95% 1,27-2,58) e tratamento supervisionado (OR=0,70; IC95% 0,51-0,96). Percebeu-se a sobreposição de vulnerabilidades no processo saúde-doença das pessoas em situação de rua com tuberculose, demandando práticas cuidativas intersetoriais e integrais.

Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis notifications.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the control of diseases by overwhelming healthcare systems, and tuberculosis (TB) notifications may have been affected. This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on TB notifications in the Sao Paulo State. This is a retrospective study examining TB notifications extracted from the TBweb database (Jan 2015 to Dec 2022). We conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of TB notifications using the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic as the interrupting event (Bayesian causal impact analysis). A total of 177,103 notifications of TB incident cases were analyzed, revealing a significant decrease in 2020 (13%) and in 2021 (9%), which lost significance in 2022. However, changes were not associated with population density or the area of the regions. Future analyses of the effects of TB underdiagnosis might help describe the impact of underreporting on future TB incidence and mortality.

Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030. METHODS: This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). RESULTS: There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; ß=-0.005; p<0.001), followed by an increase between January/2015 and March /2020 (ß=0.013; p<0.001). There was a sharp drop in cases in April/2020, with the onset of the pandemic, and acceleration of the increase in cases since then (ß=0.025; p<0.001). A projection of 124,245 cases in 2030 was made, with an estimated incidence of 4.64 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants, levels similar to those in the 2000s. The Sarima model proved to be robust, with error of 4.1% when removing the pandemic period. CONCLUSION: The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.

An epidemiological analysis of TB trends in native and migrant populations, New Mexico, 1993-2021.

To analyze the epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiographic and treatment outcome trends in non-US-born individuals with TB in New Mexico.We retrospectively analyzed TB data from New Mexico TB surveillance system from (1993-2021), comparing variables between non-US-born and US-born individuals.Of the 1,512 TB cases, 876 (56.5%) were non-US-born and 653 (43.3%) were US-born. The incidence rate among non-US-born patients declined from 15.3/100,000 (1993) to 7.8/100,000 (2021) (54.6% reduction), while among US-born patients it declined from 3.3/100,000 (1993) to 0.5/100,000 (2021) (84.8% reduction). The majority of non-US-born individuals were from Mexico (n = 482, 73.5%). Non-US-born were typically younger adults (median age: 54 vs. 61), predominantly male (64.8% vs. 59.4%), less likely to consume excess alcohol and have extrapulmonary TB. However, they were more likely to exhibit resistance to standard TB drugs (P < 0.01). Non-US-born individuals were less likely to die (7.8% vs. 15.4%), but more likely to be lost to follow-up (P < 0.007). Treatment by providers outside the Department of Health was associated with noncompletion (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.09-0.35; P < 0.001).These results highlight the need for a detailed understanding of the impact of migration on TB epidemiology and the development of tailored interventions to improve treatment outcomes..