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3.
JAMA Netw Open ; 3(7): e2016818, 2020 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32735339

RESUMO

Importance: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses an existential threat to many US residential colleges; either they open their doors to students in September or they risk serious financial consequences. Objective: To define severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) screening performance standards that would permit the safe return of students to US residential college campuses for the fall 2020 semester. Design, Setting, and Participants: This analytic modeling study included a hypothetical cohort of 4990 students without SARS-CoV-2 infection and 10 with undetected, asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection at the start of the semester. The decision and cost-effectiveness analyses were linked to a compartmental epidemic model to evaluate symptom-based screening and tests of varying frequency (ie, every 1, 2, 3, and 7 days), sensitivity (ie, 70%-99%), specificity (ie, 98%-99.7%), and cost (ie, $10/test-$50/test). Reproductive numbers (Rt) were 1.5, 2.5, and 3.5, defining 3 epidemic scenarios, with additional infections imported via exogenous shocks. The model assumed a symptomatic case fatality risk of 0.05% and a 30% probability that infection would eventually lead to observable COVID-19-defining symptoms in the cohort. Model projections were for an 80-day, abbreviated fall 2020 semester. This study adhered to US government guidance for parameterization data. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cumulative tests, infections, and costs; daily isolation dormitory census; incremental cost-effectiveness; and budget impact. Results: At the start of the semester, the hypothetical cohort of 5000 students included 4990 (99.8%) with no SARS-CoV-2 infection and 10 (0.2%) with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Assuming an Rt of 2.5 and daily screening with 70% sensitivity, a test with 98% specificity yielded 162 cumulative student infections and a mean isolation dormitory daily census of 116, with 21 students (18%) with true-positive results. Screening every 2 days resulted in 243 cumulative infections and a mean daily isolation census of 76, with 28 students (37%) with true-positive results. Screening every 7 days resulted in 1840 cumulative infections and a mean daily isolation census of 121 students, with 108 students (90%) with true-positive results. Across all scenarios, test frequency was more strongly associated with cumulative infection than test sensitivity. This model did not identify symptom-based screening alone as sufficient to contain an outbreak under any of the scenarios we considered. Cost-effectiveness analysis selected screening with a test with 70% sensitivity every 2, 1, or 7 days as the preferred strategy for an Rt of 2.5, 3.5, or 1.5, respectively, implying screening costs of $470, $910, or $120, respectively, per student per semester. Conclusions and Relevance: In this analytic modeling study, screening every 2 days using a rapid, inexpensive, and even poorly sensitive (>70%) test, coupled with strict behavioral interventions to keep Rt less than 2.5, is estimated to maintain a controllable number of COVID-19 infections and permit the safe return of students to campus.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Transmissão de Doença Infecciosa/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Medição de Risco , Universidades/organização & administração , Número Básico de Reprodução , Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Programas de Rastreamento/economia , Pandemias , Isolamento de Pacientes , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco/economia , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Universidades/economia
4.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0236872, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32776955

RESUMO

The approaching decline in the U.S. college-age population, sometimes referred to as a "demographic storm," has been identified as an existential threat to the future of American colleges and universities. This article conducts a model-driven analysis of three plausible college-level responses to declining applications. It draws on systems theory to conceptualize a tuition-dependent college as a complex service system and to develop a system dynamics model that captures key causal interrelationships and multiple feedback effects between faculty, facilities, tuition revenue, financials, reputation, and outcomes. Simulations with the college model suggest that common solutions such as reducing faculty or adding campus facilities may improve the college's short-term financial position, but they are insufficient to ensure its long-term viability. This model contributes to the research literature on the economics of higher education, and model-driven academic management and strategy. It also provides useful implications and insights that can inform policy-makers and college leaders.


Assuntos
Simulação por Computador , Estudantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Universidades/economia , Universidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Administração Financeira/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Universidades/tendências
10.
PLoS One ; 15(6): e0233747, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32479561

RESUMO

This paper constructs the 6E evaluation index system, a comprehensive index including the dimensions of economy, effectiveness, efficiency, equity, earnings and equality, to measure the sustainable higher education development of the 31 provincial regions of China by utilizing the information entropy weight-TOPSIS method. This paper then makes a spatial and temporal analysis of the coupling coordination relationship among the dimensions of sustainable higher education development by using the coupling coordination model. In addition, this paper proposes specific and applicable countermeasures for sustainable higher education development. The results show that the comprehensive degrees of sustainable higher education development in most regions are not high, and the coastal regions and the Central-south China regions have higher grades; in addition, for most regions, the coupling coordination degrees mainly remain stable, with mild growth in the respective classifications, and the gap between the west and other regions is declining. The improved method is applicable to measure the sustainable development of higher education and to propose detailed and appropriate suggestions for further development.


Assuntos
Educação Profissionalizante/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Educação Profissionalizante/economia , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise Espacial , Universidades/economia , Universidades/estatística & dados numéricos
15.
PLoS One ; 15(4): e0231135, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32302321

RESUMO

When allocating resources, people often diversify across categories even when those categories are arbitrary, such that allocations differ when identical sets of options are partitioned differently ("partition dependence"). The first goal of the present work (Experiment 1) was to replicate an experiment by Fox and colleagues in which graduate students exhibited partition dependence when asked how university financial aid should be allocated across arbitrarily partitioned income brackets. Our sample consisted of community members at a liberal arts college where financial aid practices have been recent topics of debate. Because stronger intrinsic preferences can reduce partition dependence, these participants might display little partition dependence with financial aid allocations. Alternatively, a demonstration of strong partition dependence in this population would emphasize the robustness of the effect. The second goal was to extend a "high transparency" modification to the present task context (Experiment 2) in which participants were shown both possible income partitions and randomly assigned themselves to one, to determine whether partition dependence in this paradigm would be reduced by revealing the study design (and the arbitrariness of income categories). Participants demonstrated clear partition dependence in both experiments. Results demonstrate the robustness of partition dependence in this context.


Assuntos
Comportamento de Escolha , Alocação de Recursos , Adolescente , Adulto , Connecticut , Bolsas de Estudo/economia , Bolsas de Estudo/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Renda/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Estudantes/psicologia , Estudantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Universidades/economia , Universidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
16.
Cancer Discov ; 10(6): 756, 2020 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32332087

RESUMO

As the COVID-19 pandemic stretches on, investigators are becoming increasingly concerned about longer-term effects on grants and funding for cancer research. Institutions and philanthropic organizations are especially likely to be hit hard by the economic crisis, with effects that will be particularly acute for early-career investigators.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Pesquisa Biomédica/economia , Infecções por Coronavirus , Neoplasias , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Obtenção de Fundos , Humanos , National Cancer Institute (U.S.)/economia , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pesquisadores , Apoio à Pesquisa como Assunto , Estados Unidos , Universidades/economia
18.
PLoS One ; 15(3): e0230805, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32214371

RESUMO

The innovation value chain is an effective tool for analysing innovation activities and reflects the process of value creation and increase in innovation activities. From the perspective of innovation value chains, we divided patent innovation activities into three stages: knowledge innovation stage, applied research stage and patent commercialization stage. The panel data from 64 universities directly managed by the Ministry of Education from 2009 to 2017 were used and several conclusions were drawn: 1) In the initial stage of knowledge innovation, the fundamental research fund plays a crucial promoting role, and knowledge innovation achievements are mainly published academic papers. 2) In the applied research stage, the knowledge innovation in the early stage and the fund investment in R&D activities have a significant positive effect on the patent output of universities, but the personnel investment has a negative effect. 3) In the final stage of patent commercialization, preliminary research results have a positive impact on patent commercialization, whose marginal effect depends on the industry-university-research relationship, external competition and reputation of the university. The evidence showed that there is a feedback channel between university patent commercialization and knowledge innovation, and new knowledge generated by the interaction with the outside world in the process of patent commercialization was transmitted to the subject of knowledge innovation through this channel, forming a virtuous dynamic cycle. By analysing the driving factors of the value chain of patent innovation in colleges and universities, we provided empirical evidence for the operation mechanism and policy formulation of college patents in China.


Assuntos
Invenções/economia , Patentes como Assunto , Universidades/economia , Pesquisa Biomédica/economia , China
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