Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 27.052
Filtrar
1.
Glob Health Res Policy ; 6(1): 20, 2021 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34193312

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: At 10 a.m. on January 23, 2020 Wuhan, China imposed a 76-day travel lockdown on its 11 million residents in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. This lockdown represented the largest quarantine in the history of public health and provides us with an opportunity to critically examine the relationship between a city lockdown on human mobility and controlling the spread of a viral epidemic, in this case COVID-19. This study aims to assess the causal impact of the Wuhan lockdown on population movement and the increase of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. METHODS: Based on the daily panel data from 279 Chinese cities, our research is the first to apply the synthetic control approach to empirically analyze the causal relationship between the Wuhan lockdown of its population mobility and the progression of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. By using a weighted average of available control cities to reproduce the counterfactual outcome trajectory that the treated city would have experienced in the absence of the lockdown, the synthetic control approach overcomes the sample selection bias and policy endogeneity problems that can arise from previous empirical methods in selecting control units. RESULTS: In our example, the lockdown of Wuhan reduced mobility inflow by approximately 60 % and outflow by about 50 %. A significant reduction of new cases was observed within four days of the lockdown. The increase in new cases declined by around 50% during this period. However, the suppression effect became less discernible after this initial period of time. A 2.25-fold surge was found for the increase in new cases on the fifth day following the lockdown, after which it died down rapidly. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided urgently needed and reliable causal evidence that city lockdown can be an effective short-term tool in containing and delaying the spread of a viral epidemic. Further, the city lockdown strategy can buy time during which countries can mobilize an effective response in order to better prepare. Therefore, in spite of initial widespread skepticism, lockdowns are likely to be added to the response toolkit used for any future pandemic outbreak.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Cidades , Humanos , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos
2.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34199900

RESUMO

Large-scale population movements can turn local diseases into widespread epidemics. Grasping the characteristic of the population flow in the context of the COVID-19 is of great significance for providing information to epidemiology and formulating scientific and reasonable prevention and control policies. Especially in the post-COVID-19 phase, it is essential to maintain the achievement of the fight against the epidemic. Previous research focuses on flight and railway passenger travel behavior and patterns, but China also has numerous suburban residents with a not-high economic level; investigating their travel behaviors is significant for national stability. However, estimating the impacts of the COVID-19 for suburban residents' travel behaviors remains challenging because of lacking apposite data. Here we submit bus ticketing data including approximately 26,000,000 records from April 2020-August 2020 for 2705 stations. Our results indicate that Suburban residents in Chinese Southern regions are more likely to travel by bus, and travel frequency is higher. Associated with the economic level, we find that residents in the economically developed region more likely to travel or carry out various social activities. Considering from the perspective of the traveling crowd, we find that men and young people are easier to travel by bus; however, they are exactly the main workforce. The indication of our findings is that suburban residents' travel behavior is affected profoundly by economy and consistent with the inherent behavior patterns before the COVID-19 outbreak. We use typical regions as verification and it is indeed the case.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adolescente , Big Data , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , SARS-CoV-2 , Viagem
3.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1259483

RESUMO

Large-scale population movements can turn local diseases into widespread epidemics. Grasping the characteristic of the population flow in the context of the COVID-19 is of great significance for providing information to epidemiology and formulating scientific and reasonable prevention and control policies. Especially in the post-COVID-19 phase, it is essential to maintain the achievement of the fight against the epidemic. Previous research focuses on flight and railway passenger travel behavior and patterns, but China also has numerous suburban residents with a not-high economic level; investigating their travel behaviors is significant for national stability. However, estimating the impacts of the COVID-19 for suburban residents' travel behaviors remains challenging because of lacking apposite data. Here we submit bus ticketing data including approximately 26,000,000 records from April 2020-August 2020 for 2705 stations. Our results indicate that Suburban residents in Chinese Southern regions are more likely to travel by bus, and travel frequency is higher. Associated with the economic level, we find that residents in the economically developed region more likely to travel or carry out various social activities. Considering from the perspective of the traveling crowd, we find that men and young people are easier to travel by bus; however, they are exactly the main workforce. The indication of our findings is that suburban residents' travel behavior is affected profoundly by economy and consistent with the inherent behavior patterns before the COVID-19 outbreak. We use typical regions as verification and it is indeed the case.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adolescente , Big Data , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , SARS-CoV-2 , Viagem
4.
Ann Ig ; 33(5): 518-520, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34223865

RESUMO

Abstract: Out of 38,282 passengers entering Italy at a major seaport, submitted to SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigenic test, 272 (0.6%) resulted positive and 212 (93.4%) were confirmed positive by qRT-PCR, leaving a 0.6% of false positive. Those resident in the area under control of the same Local Health Authority of the seaport were immediately submitted to isolation and investigated for contact tracing, the others notified to their Local Health Authority which did the same in the following day. This procedure was made possible by a full-time dedication of the local healthcare workers who managed all the passengers disembarking around the clock along the months of the emergency.


Assuntos
Antígenos Virais/sangue , Teste para COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Programas de Rastreamento/organização & administração , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Viagem , Adulto , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Teste de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19 , Busca de Comunicante , Feminino , Pessoal de Saúde , Humanos , Itália , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Nasofaringe/virologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Navios , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Doença Relacionada a Viagens
5.
Glob Health Res Policy ; 6(1): 20, 2021 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1292140

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: At 10 a.m. on January 23, 2020 Wuhan, China imposed a 76-day travel lockdown on its 11 million residents in order to stop the spread of COVID-19. This lockdown represented the largest quarantine in the history of public health and provides us with an opportunity to critically examine the relationship between a city lockdown on human mobility and controlling the spread of a viral epidemic, in this case COVID-19. This study aims to assess the causal impact of the Wuhan lockdown on population movement and the increase of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. METHODS: Based on the daily panel data from 279 Chinese cities, our research is the first to apply the synthetic control approach to empirically analyze the causal relationship between the Wuhan lockdown of its population mobility and the progression of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. By using a weighted average of available control cities to reproduce the counterfactual outcome trajectory that the treated city would have experienced in the absence of the lockdown, the synthetic control approach overcomes the sample selection bias and policy endogeneity problems that can arise from previous empirical methods in selecting control units. RESULTS: In our example, the lockdown of Wuhan reduced mobility inflow by approximately 60 % and outflow by about 50 %. A significant reduction of new cases was observed within four days of the lockdown. The increase in new cases declined by around 50% during this period. However, the suppression effect became less discernible after this initial period of time. A 2.25-fold surge was found for the increase in new cases on the fifth day following the lockdown, after which it died down rapidly. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provided urgently needed and reliable causal evidence that city lockdown can be an effective short-term tool in containing and delaying the spread of a viral epidemic. Further, the city lockdown strategy can buy time during which countries can mobilize an effective response in order to better prepare. Therefore, in spite of initial widespread skepticism, lockdowns are likely to be added to the response toolkit used for any future pandemic outbreak.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Quarentena/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Cidades , Humanos , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos
6.
Int Marit Health ; 72(2): 87-92, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34212347

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: People on ships are at high risk for outbreaks of infectious diseases including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A rapid and well-coordinated response is important to curb transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We studied an outbreak on an industrial ship to improve outbreak control for ships and coordination between participating harbour partners. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Public Health Service (PHS) Rotterdam-Rijnmond performed an epidemiological investigation during the outbreak of COVID-19 among 77 seafarers on a ship in their port. The captain was interviewed about ship details and his experiences during the outbreak. The seafarers were asked to fill in questionnaires about symptoms suspicious of COVID-19 and date of symptom onset. Information about stakeholders involved in outbreak control was registered. RESULTS: The captain first contacted PHS about probable cases on March 31st 2020 via a physician ashore. One crewmember was hospitalised on April 8th and another died unexpectedly aboard on April 10th. Questionnaires distributed mid-April to the 75 remaining seafarers showed that 38 of 60 responders (63%) had had suspicious symptoms between February 15th and April 13th. None of them were tested but a total of 8 other crewmembers tested positive for COVID-19 after leaving the ship, including the hospitalised crewmember and the one who died aboard. On May 5th, the last case left isolation and the quarantine ended. Many different stakeholders were involved in the outbreak response and responsibilities were not always fully clear beforehand, causing coordination issues. CONCLUSIONS: Testing crew with COVID-19 symptoms underpins control measures and clarifies communication between stakeholders. Building a network beforehand to develop outbreak guidelines tailored to ships and local circumstances is essential to control future outbreaks on ships.


Assuntos
Teste para COVID-19/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Quarentena , Navios , Adulto , Humanos , Medicina Naval/métodos , Países Baixos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Viagem
7.
Int Marit Health ; 72(2): 110-114, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34212350

RESUMO

Despite the high number of victims every year, Physalia physalis's envenomations in Indonesia are scientifically unsounded. This annual event occurred mainly in Java's southern beaches and the Eastern Bali Islands, which are the most tourist destinations. The lack of scientific reports can lead to unaware and uneducated beachgoers resulting in a high number of victims, which in turn may ruin the economic sectors. Thus, this study aimed to report P. physalis's envenomation and its treatments in the southern beaches of the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. It was based on the 15 beach lifeguards' and the primary health care units' reports in 2019-2020. The envenomation cases varied among beaches and years, whereas the highest number of cases were reported in the most popular beach (Parangtritis beach). The partial beach closing due to the pandemic COVID-19 caused the number of cases in 2020 was slightly lower than that in 2019. The envenomations' general symptoms were oedema and local pain that were treated with 5% food vinegar and hot water, if available. The severe cases (dyspnoea, nausea, vomiting, and cephalgia) were only reported twice in 2019. They were hospitalised in primary health care units; however, many people still practise the traditional non-scientific treatments, particularly in a chaotic situation.


Assuntos
Mordeduras e Picadas/diagnóstico , Mordeduras e Picadas/epidemiologia , Venenos de Cnidários/envenenamento , Hidrozoários , Animais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Indonésia , Estações do Ano , Viagem
9.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 13717, 2021 07 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34215764

RESUMO

Most countries have implemented restrictions on mobility to prevent the spread of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19), entailing considerable societal costs but, at least initially, based on limited evidence of effectiveness. We asked whether mobility restrictions were associated with changes in the occurrence of COVID-19 in 34 OECD countries plus Singapore and Taiwan. Our data sources were the Google Global Mobility Data Source, which reports different types of mobility, and COVID-19 cases retrieved from the dataset curated by Our World in Data. Beginning at each country's 100th case, and incorporating a 14-day lag to account for the delay between exposure and illness, we examined the association between changes in mobility (with January 3 to February 6, 2020 as baseline) and the ratio of the number of newly confirmed cases on a given day to the total number of cases over the past 14 days from the index day (the potentially infective 'pool' in that population), per million population, using LOESS regression and logit regression. In two-thirds of examined countries, reductions of up to 40% in commuting mobility (to workplaces, transit stations, retailers, and recreation) were associated with decreased cases, especially early in the pandemic. Once both mobility and incidence had been brought down, further restrictions provided little additional benefit. These findings point to the importance of acting early and decisively in a pandemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Transportes , Viagem , Doença Relacionada a Viagens , Local de Trabalho
10.
Viruses ; 13(6)2021 06 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34208620

RESUMO

We describe the impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on mosquito-borne diseases in Queensland, Australia, during the first half of 2020. Implementation of restrictions coincided with an atypical late season outbreak of Ross River virus (RRV) characterized by a peak in notifications in April (1173) and May (955) which were greater than 3-fold the mean observed for the previous four years. We propose that limitations on human movement likely resulted in the majority of RRV infections being acquired at or near the place of residence, and that an increase in outdoor activities, such as gardening and bushwalking in the local household vicinity, increased risk of exposure to RRV-infected mosquitoes. In contrast, the precipitous decline in international passenger flights led to a reduction in the number of imported dengue and malaria cases of over 70% and 60%, respectively, compared with the previous five years. This substantial reduction in flights also reduced a risk pathway for importation of exotic mosquitoes, but the risk posed by importation via sea cargo was not affected. Overall, the emergence of COVID-19 has had a varied impact on mosquito-borne disease epidemiology in Queensland, but the need for mosquito surveillance and control, together with encouragement of personal protective measures, remains unchanged.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Vigilância da População , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/epidemiologia , Infecções por Alphavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Alphavirus/transmissão , Animais , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/métodos , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/estatística & dados numéricos , Culicidae/virologia , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Movimento , Queensland/epidemiologia , Viagem , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/prevenção & controle , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/transmissão
12.
Health Aff (Millwood) ; 40(7): 1162-1169, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34228523

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a dramatic impact on the cross-border movement of people. As governments begin to reopen their borders and cautiously restart travel, their attention is shifting to border procedures that could facilitate travel while protecting the homeland from travelers who may be infected. This is not the first time in recent memory that border management has had to be rethought under the pressure of large external forces. This article examines parallels between the current situation and the early 2000s, when the September 11, 2001, attacks on US targets caused a seismic shift in managing borders. We find echoes of today's responses in the initial fragmentation and chaos of two decades ago, which eventually gave way to a coordinated international system. We also analyze the implications of the emerging border health infrastructure for other migration challenges-particularly addressing irregular crossings and the border "crises" they create. Because the aftershocks of the pandemic on all aspects of people on the move could be felt for decades, immigration, mobility management, and public health priorities must be considered alongside one another.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Emigração e Imigração , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Viagem
13.
N Z Med J ; 134(1538): 68-76, 2021 07 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34239146

RESUMO

AIM: Quick COVID-19 Surveys are an international collaboration designed to rapidly analyse and disseminate a primary care perspective on the pandemic and associated health response. In this paper we present results from surveys relating to opening the New Zealand border. METHOD: Three surveys were distributed to primary care practices between May and December 2020. A range of primary care member organisations distributed the survey augmented by snowballing. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics and qualitative data through an inductive process and grouped into themes. RESULTS: Respondents became increasingly supportive of opening a trans-Tasman border but not internationally. Two broad themes were evident: (1) making sure that the border is not an Achilles heel and (2) effective strategies to reduce local transmission. These themes highlight primary care's concerns around management of the border and the management of local spread respectively. CONCLUSION: The results highlight concerns around border control from a primary care perspective. The border control issues raised by primary care have proven to be prophetic at times and reflect the role that primary care has as observers of society. The survey mechanism provides a template for rapidly eliciting a primary care voice for future health issues.


Assuntos
Atitude do Pessoal de Saúde , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Política de Saúde , Atenção Primária à Saúde , COVID-19/transmissão , Humanos , Nova Zelândia , SARS-CoV-2 , Inquéritos e Questionários , Viagem
14.
N Z Med J ; 134(1538): 77-88, 2021 07 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34239147

RESUMO

AIMS: Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is associated with poor outcomes. While several medications are beneficial, achieving optimal guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) is challenging. COVID-19 created a need to explore new ways to deliver care. METHODS: Fifty consecutive patients were taught to identify fluid congestion and monitor their vital signs using BP monitors and electronic scales with NP-led telephone support. Quantitative data were collected and a patient experience interview was performed. RESULTS: The majority (76%) of the cohort (male, 76%; Maori/Pacific, 58%) had a new diagnosis of HFrEF, with 90% having severe left ventricular (LV) dysfunction. There were 216 contacts (129 (60%) by telephone), which eliminated travelling, (time saved, 2.12 hours per patient), petrol costs ($58.17 per patient), traffic pollution (607 Kg of CO2) and time off work. Most (75%) received contact within two weeks and 75% were optimally titrated within two months. Improvements in systolic BP (SBP) (124mmHg to 116mmHg), pulse (78 bpm to 70 bpm) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (292 to 65) were identified. Of the 43 patients who had a follow-up transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE), 33 (77%) showed important improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). CONCLUSIONS: Patients found the process acceptable and experienced rapid titration with less need for clinic review with titration rates comparable with most real-world reports.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Insuficiência Cardíaca/tratamento farmacológico , Insuficiência Cardíaca/fisiopatologia , Profissionais de Enfermagem , Padrões de Prática em Enfermagem , Telemedicina , Idoso , Fator Natriurético Atrial/sangue , Pressão Sanguínea , Estudos de Viabilidade , Feminino , Frequência Cardíaca , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Educação de Pacientes como Assunto , Satisfação do Paciente , Projetos Piloto , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Precursores de Proteínas/sangue , SARS-CoV-2 , Volume Sistólico , Telemedicina/economia , Telemedicina/organização & administração , Telefone , Viagem/economia
15.
N Z Med J ; 134(1538): 111-119, 2021 07 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34239150

RESUMO

AIM: To determine the impact on the Capital & Coast District Health Board (CCDHB) urology service of the implementation of nationwide healthcare restrictions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This is an observational retrospective study over a 21 working day period during the implementation of National Hospital Response Framework Alert (NHRFA) level 2. We obtained patient data during this period and a corresponding control period prior to the pandemic. The data was focussed on the volume of operating theatre cases, outpatient consultations, procedural clinic appointments and the estimated avoided outpatient travel. RESULTS: Total urology admissions decreased by 27% during the 21-day NHRFA level 2 period. However, acute surgical procedures increased by 30% whereas elective surgical procedures decreased by 32%. Outpatient consultations overall decreased by 32% during NHRFA level 2 despite virtual phone consultations increasing by 274%. Procedural clinic appointments decreased by 85%. The virtual platform also saved each patient an estimated 22.7km of average travel. CONCLUSION: The data demonstrate the effects of restrictions in response to a crisis and set a precedent for future management in such scenarios. The data also show how service efficiency can be optimised while providing an environmentally friendly alternative for routine clinical practice.


Assuntos
Assistência Ambulatorial/estatística & dados numéricos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Atenção à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Urológicos/estatística & dados numéricos , Urologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Eletivos/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Nova Zelândia , Visita a Consultório Médico/estatística & dados numéricos , Admissão do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2 , Telemedicina/estatística & dados numéricos , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos
16.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0253901, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34242278

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a long-term crisis that calls for long-term solutions. We combined an augmented SEIR simulation model with real-time human mobility data to decompose the effects of lockdown, travel bans and effective testing measures in the curtailment of COVID-19 spread in China over different time horizons. Our analysis reveals that the significant growth in the detection rate of infectious cases, thanks to the expansion in testing efficiency, were as effective as city lockdowns in explaining the reduction in new infections up to mid-March. However, as we extended the analysis to July, increasing the detection rate to at least 50% is the only reliable way to bring the spread under control.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Simulação por Computador , Modelos Biológicos , Pandemias , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2 , Viagem , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/transmissão , China/epidemiologia , Cidades , Humanos
17.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 13069, 2021 06 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34158531

RESUMO

Mobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-time monitoring framework for tracking the economic consequences of various forms of mobility reductions involving European countries. We adopt a granular representation of mobility patterns during both the first and second waves of SARS-COV-2 in Italy, Germany, France and Spain to provide an analytical characterization of the rate of losses of industrial production by means of a nowcasting methodology. Our approach exploits the information encoded in massive datasets of human mobility provided by Facebook and Google, which are published at higher frequencies than the target economic variables, in order to obtain an early estimate before the official data becomes available. Our results show, in first place, the ability of mobility-related policies to induce a contraction of mobility patterns across jurisdictions. Besides this contraction, we observe a substitution effect which increases mobility within jurisdictions. Secondly, we show how industrial production strictly follows the dynamics of population commuting patterns and of human mobility trends, which thus provide information on the day-by-day variations in countries' economic activities. Our work, besides shedding light on how policy interventions targeted to induce a mobility contraction impact the real economy, constitutes a practical toolbox for helping governments to design appropriate and balanced policy actions aimed at containing the SARS-COV-2 spread, while mitigating the detrimental effect on the economy. Our study reveals how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across countries and call for a more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic activities.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Status Econômico , Viagem , COVID-19/patologia , COVID-19/virologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Quarentena , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Mídias Sociais
18.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 13141, 2021 06 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34162933

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the defining events of our time. National Governments responded to the global crisis by implementing mobility restrictions to slow down the spread of the virus. To assess the impact of those policies on human mobility, we perform a massive comparative analysis on geolocalized data from 13 M Facebook users in France, Italy, and the UK. We find that lockdown generally affects national mobility efficiency and smallworldness-i.e., a substantial reduction of long-range connections in favor of local paths. The impact, however, differs among nations according to their mobility infrastructure. We find that mobility is more concentrated in France and UK and more distributed in Italy. In this paper we provide a framework to quantify the substantial impact of the mobility restrictions. We introduce a percolation model mimicking mobility network disruption and find that node persistence in the percolation process is significantly correlated with the economic and demographic characteristics of countries: areas showing higher resilience to mobility disruptions are those where Value Added per Capita and Population Density are high. Our methods and findings provide important insights to enhance preparedness for global critical events and to incorporate resilience as a relevant dimension to estimate the socio-economic consequences of mobility restriction policies.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Viagem , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Pandemias
19.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 13531, 2021 06 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34188119

RESUMO

Policymakers everywhere are working to determine the set of restrictions that will effectively contain the spread of COVID-19 without excessively stifling economic activity. We show that publicly available data on human mobility-collected by Google, Facebook, and other providers-can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and forecast the spread of COVID-19. This approach uses simple and transparent statistical models to estimate the effect of NPIs on mobility, and basic machine learning methods to generate 10-day forecasts of COVID-19 cases. An advantage of the approach is that it involves minimal assumptions about disease dynamics, and requires only publicly-available data. We evaluate this approach using local and regional data from China, France, Italy, South Korea, and the United States, as well as national data from 80 countries around the world. We find that NPIs are associated with significant reductions in human mobility, and that changes in mobility can be used to forecast COVID-19 infections.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Bases de Dados Factuais , Modelos Estatísticos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , China/epidemiologia , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Aprendizado de Máquina , Quarentena , República da Coreia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Viagem , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(26)2021 06 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1284761

RESUMO

In response to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), governments have introduced severe policy measures with substantial effects on human behavior. Here, we perform a large-scale, spatiotemporal analysis of human mobility during the COVID-19 epidemic. We derive human mobility from anonymized, aggregated telecommunication data in a nationwide setting (Switzerland; 10 February to 26 April 2020), consisting of ∼1.5 billion trips. In comparison to the same time period from 2019, human movement in Switzerland dropped by 49.1%. The strongest reduction is linked to bans on gatherings of more than five people, which are estimated to have decreased mobility by 24.9%, followed by venue closures (stores, restaurants, and bars) and school closures. As such, human mobility at a given day predicts reported cases 7 to 13 d ahead. A 1% reduction in human mobility predicts a 0.88 to 1.11% reduction in daily reported COVID-19 cases. When managing epidemics, monitoring human mobility via telecommunication data can support public decision makers in two ways. First, it helps in assessing policy impact; second, it provides a scalable tool for near real-time epidemic surveillance, thereby enabling evidence-based policies.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Telecomunicações/estatística & dados numéricos , Política de Saúde/tendências , Humanos , Vigilância da População , Saúde Pública , Suíça/epidemiologia , Viagem/estatística & dados numéricos
SELEÇÃO DE REFERÊNCIAS
DETALHE DA PESQUISA
...