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1.
CMAJ ; 193(23): E835-E843, 2021 06 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34099467

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the clinical burden of postpartum mental illness has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to compare physician visit rates for postpartum mental illness in Ontario, Canada, during the pandemic with rates expected based on prepandemic patterns. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study using linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we used negative binomial regression to model expected visit rates per 1000 postpartum people for March-November 2020 based on prepandemic data (January 2016-February 2020). We compared observed visit rates to expected visit rates for each month of the pandemic period, generating absolute rate differences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The primary outcome was a visit to a primary care physician or a psychiatrist for any mental disorder. We stratified analyses by maternal sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: In March 2020, the visit rate was 43.5/1000, with a rate difference of 3.11/1000 (95% CI 1.25-4.89) and an IRR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.03-1.13) compared with the expected rate. In April, the rate difference (10.9/1000, 95% CI 9.14-12.6) and IRR (1.30, 95% CI 1.24-1.36) were higher; this level was generally sustained through November 2020. From April-November, we observed elevated visit rates across provider types and for diagnoses of anxiety, depressive and alcohol or substance use disorders. Observed increases from expected visit rates were greater for people 0-90 days postpartum compared with 91-365 days postpartum; increases were small among people living in low-income neighbourhoods. Public health units in the northern areas of the province did not see sustained elevations in visit rates after July; southern health units had elevated rates through to November. INTERPRETATION: Increased visits for mental health conditions among postpartum people during the first 9 months of the COVID-19 pandemic suggest an increased need for effective and accessible mental health care for this population as the pandemic progresses.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Transtornos Mentais/epidemiologia , Saúde Mental , Pandemias , Vigilância da População , Período Pós-Parto , Adulto , Comorbidade , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Transtornos Mentais/psicologia , Ontário/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
2.
Pan Afr Med J ; 38: 254, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34104302

RESUMO

Since the announcement of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in January 30th 2020, 68 countries reported to the World Health Organization that they were experiencing disruptions in malaria diagnosis and treatment. This situation had the potential to lead to delays in diagnosis and treatment, which could result in an increase in severe cases and deaths. This analysis was based on findings from a field visit, carried out between June 30th and July 1st, 2020, to a warehouse, to two health facilities, and a meeting with a community health worker, and an descriptive epidemiologic data analysis of health information system (HIS) to evaluate trends of the number of people tested for malaria and number of malaria cases reported, by comparing data from 2018, 2019 and 2020 for the period between January and May. The two health facilities and the warehouse had about two months of stock of antimalarial drugs, and patients with malaria symptoms were being tested for malaria at the COVID-19 screening site. The HIS data showed that the number of reported malaria cases decreased by 3.0% (177.646/172.246) in April, and 7.0% (173.188/161.812) in May, when comparing 2019 and 2020 data. People tested for malaria in community increased by 39.0% (190.370/264.730), between 2019 and 2020. The COVID-19 may have had a negative impact on the diagnosis and treatment of malaria in health facility (HF). The decrease in people tested for malaria in the health facilities may have overwhelmed the activities of the community.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Malária/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População/métodos , Antimaláricos/administração & dosagem , Antimaláricos/provisão & distribuição , Humanos , Malária/diagnóstico , Malária/tratamento farmacológico , Programas de Rastreamento/métodos , Moçambique/epidemiologia
3.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(23): 833-839, 2021 06 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34111057

RESUMO

In 2005, the Regional Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region (EUR) passed a resolution calling for the regional elimination of measles, rubella, and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) (1). In 2010, all 53 countries in EUR* reaffirmed their commitment to eliminating measles, rubella, and CRS (2); this goal was included in the European Vaccine Action Plan 2015-2020 (3,4). Rubella, which typically manifests as a mild febrile rash illness, is the leading vaccine-preventable cause of birth defects. Rubella infection during pregnancy can result in miscarriage, fetal death, or a constellation of malformations known as CRS, which usually includes one or more visual, auditory, or cardiac defects (5). The WHO-recommended measles and rubella elimination strategies in EUR include 1) achieving and maintaining ≥95% coverage with 2 doses of measles- and rubella-containing vaccine (MRCV) through routine immunization services; 2) providing measles and rubella vaccination opportunities, including supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), to populations susceptible to measles or rubella; 3) strengthening surveillance by conducting case investigations and confirming suspected cases and outbreaks with laboratory results; and 4) improving the availability and use of evidence to clearly communicate the benefits and risks of preventing these diseases through vaccination to health professionals and the public (6). This report updates a previous report and describes progress toward rubella and CRS elimination in EUR during 2005-2019 (7). In 2000, estimated coverage with the first dose of a rubella-containing vaccine (RCV1) in EUR was 60%, and 621,039 rubella cases were reported (incidence = 716.9 per 1 million population). During 2005-2019, estimated regional coverage with RCV1 was 93%-95%, and in 2019, 31 (58%) countries achieved ≥95% coverage with the RCV1. During 2005-2019, approximately 38 million persons received an RCV during SIAs in 20 (37%) countries. Rubella incidence declined by >99%, from 234.9 cases per 1 million population (206,359 cases) in 2005 to 0.67 cases per 1 million population (620 cases) by 2019. CRS cases declined by 50%, from 16 cases in 2005 to eight cases in 2019. For rubella and CRS elimination in EUR to be achieved and maintained, measures are needed to strengthen immunization programs by ensuring high coverage with an RCV in every district of each country, offering supplementary rubella vaccination to susceptible adults, maintaining high-quality surveillance for rapid case detection and confirmation, and ensuring effective outbreak preparedness and response.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Vigilância da População , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)/epidemiologia , Rubéola (Sarampo Alemão)/prevenção & controle , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Genótipo , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Vacina contra Rubéola/administração & dosagem , Vírus da Rubéola/genética , Vírus da Rubéola/isolamento & purificação , Cobertura Vacinal/estatística & dados numéricos , Organização Mundial da Saúde
5.
BMC Infect Dis ; 21(1): 529, 2021 Jun 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34090380

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) is a growing health-concern in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS is associated with fatal diseases such as HIV and malaria. Despite high case fatality rates, the disease has not been given much attention. The limited number of population-based surveillance studies hampers accurate estimation of global disease burden. Given the lack of available evidence on the disease, it is critical to identify high risk areas for future surveillance and to improve our understanding of iNTS endemicity. METHODS: Considering that population-based surveillance data were sparse, a composite index called the iNTS risk factor (iNRF) index was constructed based on risk factors that commonly exist across countries. Four risk factors associated with the prevalence of iNTS were considered: malaria, HIV, malnutrition, and safe water. The iNRF index was first generated based on the four risk factors which were collected within a 50 km radius of existing surveillance sites. Pearson product-moment correlation was used to test statistical associations between the iNRF index and the prevalence of iNTS observed in the surveillance sites. The index was then further estimated at the subnational boundary level across selected countries and used to identify high risk areas for iNTS. RESULTS: While the iNRF index in some countries was generally low (i.e. Rwanda) or high (i.e. Cote d'Ivoire), the risk-level of iNTS was variable not only by country but also within a country. At the provincial-level, the highest risk area was identified in Maniema, the Democratic Republic of Congo, whereas Dakar in Senegal was at the lowest risk. CONCLUSIONS: The iNRF index can be a useful tool to understand the geographically varying risk-level of iNTS. Given that conducting a population-based surveillance study requires extensive human and financial resources, identifying high risk areas for iNTS prior to a study implementation can facilitate an appropriate site-selection process in the future.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Malária/epidemiologia , Desnutrição/epidemiologia , Infecções por Salmonella/epidemiologia , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Índice de Massa Corporal , Água Potável , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Humanos , Malária/complicações , Desnutrição/complicações , Modelos Biológicos , Vigilância da População , Fatores de Risco , Salmonella , Infecções por Salmonella/complicações
6.
J Am Vet Med Assoc ; 258(11): 1205-1220, 2021 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33978439

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To provide epidemiological information on animal and human cases of rabies occurring in the United States during 2019 and summaries of 2019 rabies surveillance for Canada and Mexico. ANIMALS: All animals submitted for laboratory diagnosis of rabies in the United States during 2019. PROCEDURES: State and territorial public health departments and USDA Wildlife Services provided data on animals submitted for rabies testing in the United States during 2019. Data were analyzed temporally and geographically to assess trends in domestic and wildlife rabies cases. RESULTS: During 2019, 53 jurisdictions submitted 97,523 animal samples for rabies testing, of which 94,770 (97.2%) had a conclusive (positive or negative) test result. Of these, 4,690 tested positive for rabies, representing a 5.3% decrease from the 4,951 cases reported in 2018. Texas (n = 565 [12.0%]), New York (391 [8.3%]), Virginia (385 [8.2%]), North Carolina (315 [6.7%]), California (276 [5.9%]), and Maryland (269 [5.7%]) together accounted for almost half of all animal rabies cases reported in 2019. Of the total reported rabid animals, 4,305 (91.8%) were wildlife, with raccoons (n = 1,545 [32.9%]), bats (1,387 [29.6%]), skunks (915 [19.5%]), and foxes (361 [7.7%]) as the primary species confirmed with rabies. Rabid cats (n = 245 [5.2%]) and dogs (66 [1.4%]) accounted for > 80% of rabies cases involving domestic animals in 2019. No human rabies cases were reported in 2019. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The overall number of animal rabies cases decreased from 2018 to 2019. Laboratory diagnosis of rabies in animals is critical to ensure that human rabies postexposure prophylaxis is administered judiciously.


Assuntos
Doenças do Gato , Quirópteros , Doenças do Cão , Raiva , Animais , Animais Domésticos , Animais Selvagens , Canadá , Gatos , Doenças do Cão/epidemiologia , Cães , México , New York , North Carolina , Vigilância da População , Raiva/epidemiologia , Raiva/prevenção & controle , Raiva/veterinária , Guaxinins , Texas , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Virginia
7.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(18): 667-673, 2021 May 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33956779

RESUMO

When the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) was established in 1988, an estimated 350,000 poliomyelitis cases were reported worldwide. In 2020, 140 wild poliovirus (WPV) cases were confirmed, representing a 99.99% reduction since 1988. WPV type 1 transmission remains endemic in only two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan), but outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) occurred in 33 countries during 2019-2020 (1,2). Poliovirus transmission is detected primarily through syndromic surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) among children aged <15 years, with confirmation by laboratory testing of stool specimens. Environmental surveillance supplements AFP surveillance and plays an increasingly important role in detecting poliovirus transmission. Within 2 weeks of COVID-19 being declared a global pandemic (3), GPEI recommended continuing surveillance activities with caution and paused all polio supplementary immunization activities (4). This report summarizes surveillance performance indicators for 2019 and 2020 in 42 priority countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission and updates previous reports (5). In 2020, 48% of priority countries* in the African Region, 90% in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, and 40% in other regions met AFP surveillance performance indicators nationally. The number of priority countries rose from 40 in 2019 to 42 in 2020.† Analysis of 2019-2020 AFP surveillance data from 42 countries at high risk for poliovirus transmission indicates that national and subnational nonpolio AFP rates and stool specimen adequacy declined in many priority countries, particularly in the African Region, suggesting a decline in surveillance sensitivity and quality. The findings in this report can be used to guide improvements to restore a sensitive surveillance system that can track poliovirus transmission and provide evidence of interruption of transmission.


Assuntos
Erradicação de Doenças , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Poliomielite/prevenção & controle , Vigilância da População , Humanos , Poliomielite/epidemiologia
8.
Infect Dis Poverty ; 10(1): 74, 2021 May 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34011383

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Oncomelania hupensis is only intermediate snail host of Schistosoma japonicum, and distribution of O. hupensis is an important indicator for the surveillance of schistosomiasis. This study explored the feasibility of a random forest algorithm weighted by spatial distance for risk prediction of schistosomiasis distribution in the Yangtze River Basin in China, with the aim to produce an improved precision reference for the national schistosomiasis control programme by reducing the number of snail survey sites without losing predictive accuracy. METHODS: The snail presence and absence records were collected from Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Jiangsu provinces in 2018. A machine learning of random forest algorithm based on a set of environmental and climatic variables was developed to predict the breeding sites of the O. hupensis intermediated snail host of S. japonicum. Different spatial sizes of a hexagonal grid system were compared to estimate the need for required snail sampling sites. The predictive accuracy related to geographic distances between snail sampling sites was estimated by calculating Kappa and the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The highest accuracy (AUC = 0.889 and Kappa = 0.618) was achieved at the 5 km distance weight. The five factors with the strongest correlation to O. hupensis infestation probability were: (1) distance to lake (48.9%), (2) distance to river (36.6%), (3) isothermality (29.5%), (4) mean daily difference in temperature (28.1%), and (5) altitude (26.0%). The risk map showed that areas characterized by snail infestation were mainly located along the Yangtze River, with the highest probability in the dividing, slow-flowing river arms in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in Anhui, followed by areas near the shores of China's two main lakes, the Dongting Lake in Hunan and Hubei and the Poyang Lake in Jiangxi. CONCLUSIONS: Applying the machine learning of random forest algorithm made it feasible to precisely predict snail infestation probability, an approach that could improve the sensitivity of the Chinese schistosome surveillance system. Redesign of the snail surveillance system by spatial bias correction of O. hupensis infestation in the Yangtze River Basin to reduce the number of sites required to investigate from 2369 to 1747.


Assuntos
Rios/parasitologia , Schistosoma japonicum/isolamento & purificação , Caramujos/fisiologia , Animais , Cruzamento , China , Monitoramento Ambiental , Estudos de Viabilidade , Aprendizado de Máquina , Modelos Teóricos , Vigilância da População , Caramujos/parasitologia , Análise Espacial
9.
Health Qual Life Outcomes ; 19(1): 138, 2021 May 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33952271

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the validity of the EQ-5D-5L in respondents with self-reported diabetes coming from a representative general population survey. METHODS: 2974 respondents from the general adult population of Poland, chosen with multi-stage random sampling, were surveyed with HRQoL instruments (EQ-5D-5L, EQ VAS, SF-12, EQ-5D-3L) and a screening question about diabetes. To obtain EQ-5D index values, we used country-specific Polish value sets. We compared the instruments in terms of the ceiling effect, discriminatory power and frequency of individual health states. We evaluated construct validity in terms of known-groups validity and convergent validity of EQ-5D-5L dimensions and index values with other HRQoL measures. RESULTS: In respondents with diabetes (n = 247), the percentage reporting 'no problems' with EQ-5D-3L was reduced by 34.5% with the use of EQ-5D-5L (from 14.2% to 9.3%, respectively). A significant improvement in informativity was noticed in mobility and pain/discomfort dimensions (a relative increase of 23.1% and 22.7%, respectively). Known-groups construct validity analysis confirmed prior hypotheses-index scores were higher in the following groups: younger respondents, males, those taking no medication or oral antidiabetic drugs, and respondents with higher levels of education. The convergence between related EQ-5D-5L and EQ-5D-3L or SF-6D dimensions was stronger than between unrelated dimensions. The Bland-Altman analysis showed a mean difference between EQ-5D-5L and EQ-5D-3L, SF-6D, EQ VAS/100 index scores of 0.047, 0.165 and 0.231 respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the validity of the EQ-5D-5L descriptive system and EQ-5D-5L index, based on the directly measured value set in respondents with self-reported diabetes coming from the general population.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus/psicologia , Nível de Saúde , Vigilância da População/métodos , Psicometria/normas , Qualidade de Vida/psicologia , Autorrelato/estatística & dados numéricos , Inquéritos e Questionários/normas , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Lineares , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Polônia/epidemiologia , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
10.
Respir Med ; 183: 106433, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33957434

RESUMO

The COVID-19-related death rate varies between countries and is affected by various risk factors. This multicenter registry study was designed to evaluate the mortality rate and the related risk factors in Turkey. We retrospectively evaluated 1500 adults with COVID-19 from 26 centers who were hospitalized between March 11 and July 31, 2020. In the study group, 1041 and 459 cases were diagnosed as definite and highly probable cases, respectively. There were 993 PCR-positive cases (66.2%). Among all cases, 1144 (76.3%) were diagnosed with non-severe pneumonia, whereas 212 (14.1%) had severe pneumonia. Death occurred in 67 patients, corresponding to a mortality rate of 4.5% (95% CI:3.5-5.6). The univariate analysis demonstrated that various factors, including male sex, age ≥65 years and the presence of dyspnea or confusion, malignity, chronic obstructive lung disease, interstitial lung disease, immunosuppressive conditions, severe pneumonia, multiorgan dysfunction, and sepsis, were positively associated with mortality. Favipiravir, hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin were not associated with survival. Following multivariate analysis, male sex, severe pneumonia, multiorgan dysfunction, malignancy, sepsis and interstitial lung diseases were found to be independent risk factors for mortality. Among the biomarkers, procalcitonin levels on the 3rd-5th days of admission showed the strongest associations with mortality (OR: 6.18; 1.6-23.93). This study demonstrated that the mortality rate in hospitalized patients in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic was a serious threat and that those patients with male sex, severe pneumonia, multiorgan dysfunction, malignancy, sepsis and interstitial lung diseases were at increased risk of mortality; therefore, such patients should be closely monitored.


Assuntos
/mortalidade , Pandemias , Vigilância da População , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Taxa de Sobrevida/tendências , Turquia/epidemiologia
11.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 2671, 2021 05 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33976176

RESUMO

The collection of fecal material and developments in sequencing technologies have enabled standardised and non-invasive gut microbiome profiling. Microbiome composition from several large cohorts have been cross-sectionally linked to various lifestyle factors and diseases. In spite of these advances, prospective associations between microbiome composition and health have remained uncharacterised due to the lack of sufficiently large and representative population cohorts with comprehensive follow-up data. Here, we analyse the long-term association between gut microbiome variation and mortality in a well-phenotyped and representative population cohort from Finland (n = 7211). We report robust taxonomic and functional microbiome signatures related to the Enterobacteriaceae family that are associated with mortality risk during a 15-year follow-up. Our results extend previous cross-sectional studies, and help to establish the basis for examining long-term associations between human gut microbiome composition, incident outcomes, and general health status.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte/tendências , Enterobacteriaceae/genética , Fezes/microbiologia , Microbioma Gastrointestinal/genética , RNA Ribossômico 16S/genética , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Transversais , Enterobacteriaceae/classificação , Feminino , Finlândia , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vigilância da População/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem
12.
BMC Public Health ; 21(1): 916, 2021 05 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33985451

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Electronic reporting of integrated disease surveillance and response (eIDSR) was implemented in Adamawa and Yobe states, Northeastern Nigeria, as an innovative strategy to improve disease reporting. Its objectives were to improve the timeliness and completeness of IDSR reporting by health facilities, prompt identification of public health events, timely information sharing, and public health action. We evaluated the project to determine whether it met its set objectives. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess and document the lessons learned from the project. We reviewed the performance of the local government areas (LGAs) on timeliness and completeness of reporting, rumors identification, and reporting on the eIDSR and the traditional paper-based system using a checklist. Respondents were interviewed online on the relevance, efficiency, sustainability, project progress and effectiveness, the effectiveness of management, and potential impact and scalability of the strategy using structured questionnaires. Data were cleaned, analyzed, and presented as proportions using an MS Excel spreadsheet. Responses were also presented as direct quotes. RESULTS: The number of health facilities reporting IDSR increased from 103 to 228 (117%) before and after implementation of the eIDSR respectively. The timeliness of reporting was 43% in the LGA compared to 73% in health facilities implementing eIDSR. The completeness of IDSR reports in the last 6 months before the evaluation was ≥85%. Of the 201 rumors identified and verified, 161 (80%) were from the eIDSR pilot sites. The majority of the stakeholders interviewed believed that eIDSR met its predetermined objectives for public health surveillance. The benefits of eIDSR included timely reporting and response to alerts and disease outbreaks, improved timeliness, and completeness of reporting, and supportive supervision to the operational levels. The strategy helped stakeholders to appreciate their roles in public health surveillance. CONCLUSION: The eIDSR has increased the number of health facilities reporting IDSR, enabled early identification, reporting, and verification of alerts, improved timeliness and completeness of reports, and supportive supervision of staff at the operational levels. It was well accepted by the stakeholder as a system that made reporting easy with the potential to improve the public health surveillance system in Nigeria.


Assuntos
Surtos de Doenças , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Estudos Transversais , Eletrônica , Humanos , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População
13.
Pan Afr Med J ; 38: 164, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33995771

RESUMO

Introduction: the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) global pandemic has caused serious disruption to almost all aspect of human endeavor forcing countries to implement unprecedented public health measures aimed at mitigating its effects, such as total lockdown (inter and intra), travel bans, quarantine, social distancing in an effort to contain the spread of the virus. Supportive supervision is a functional component of the immunization systems that allows identification of existing gaps, provides an opportunity for onsite training, and document real-time findings for improvement of the program. The control measures of COVID-19 pandemic have also resulted in limitation of operations of the immunization system including supportive supervision. This has limited many aspects of supportive supervision for surveillance and routine immunization monitoring system in the East and Southern African countries. The aim of this study is to identify the effects of COVID-19 on Integrated Supportive Supervision visits for expanded programme on immunization (EPI) and how it influences the immunization and vaccine preventable disease (VPD) surveillance indicators, and its short-term effect towards notification of increase or decrease morbidity and mortality. Methods: we reviewed the integrated supportive supervision (ISS) data and the routine administrative coverage from 19 countries in the East and Southern Africa (ESA) for the period January to August 2019 to analyze the trends in the number of visits, vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD), and routine immunization (RI) indicators using t-test, and compare with the period January to August 2020 during the months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results: thirteen countries out of the 19 considered, had shown a decline in the number of integrated supportive supervision (ISS) visits, with 10 (77%) having more than 59% decrease during the January-August 2020 as compared to the same period 2019. Eleven (57%) of the countries have shown a decrease (p-value < 0.05). Ethiopia and Kenya had the highest drop (p-value < 0.000). Six (32%) had an increase in the number of visits, with Madagascar, Zambia, and Zimbabwe having >100% increase in the number of visits. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of the countries that have decreased in the number of ISS visits have equally witnessed a drop in DPT3 administrative coverage. Countries with a low proportion of outreach sessions conducted in the period of January - August 2020, have all had sessions interruption, with more than 40% of the reasons associated with the lockdown. Conclusion: countries have experienced a decrease in the number of supportive supervision visits conducted, during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic and, this has influenced the routine immunization and vaccine-preventable diseases surveillance (VPD) process indicators monitored through the conduct of the visits. Continuous decrease in these performance indicators pose a great threat to the performance sustained and the functionality of the surveillance and immunization system, and consequently on increased surveillance sensitivity to promptly detect outbreaks and aiming to reducing morbidity and mortality in the sub-region.


Assuntos
/prevenção & controle , Programas de Imunização , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Preveníveis por Vacina/prevenção & controle , África Oriental , África Austral , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Vigilância da População , Saúde Pública , Cobertura Vacinal , Vacinas/administração & dosagem
15.
MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep ; 70(21): 775-778, 2021 May 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34043612

RESUMO

One component of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) goal to end the HIV/AIDS epidemic by 2030, is that 95% of all persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) achieve viral suppression.† Thus, testing all HIV-positive persons for viral load (number of copies of viral RNA per mL) is a global health priority (1). CDC and other U.S. government agencies, as part of the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), together with other stakeholders, have provided technical assistance and supported the cost for multiple countries in sub-Saharan Africa to expand viral load testing as the preferred monitoring strategy for clinical response to ART. The individual and population-level benefits of ART are well understood (2). Persons receiving ART who achieve and sustain an undetectable viral load do not transmit HIV to their sex partners, thereby disrupting onward transmission (2,3). Viral load testing is a cost-effective and sustainable programmatic approach for monitoring treatment success, allowing reduced frequency of health care visits for patients who are virally suppressed (4). Viral load monitoring enables early and accurate detection of treatment failure before immunologic decline. This report describes progress on the scale-up of viral load testing in eight sub-Saharan African countries from 2013 to 2018 and examines the trajectory of improvement with viral load testing scale-up that has paralleled government commitments, sustained technical assistance, and financial resources from international donors. Viral load testing in low- and middle-income countries enables monitoring of viral load suppression at the individual and population level, which is necessary to achieve global epidemic control. Although there has been substantial achievement in improving viral load coverage for all patients receiving ART, continued engagement is needed to reach global targets.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Infecções por HIV/virologia , Vigilância da População , Carga Viral , África ao Sul do Saara/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos
16.
Lancet ; 397(10287): 1819-1829, 2021 05 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33964222

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Following the emergency use authorisation of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 vaccine BNT162b2 (international non-proprietary name tozinameran) in Israel, the Ministry of Health (MoH) launched a campaign to immunise the 6·5 million residents of Israel aged 16 years and older. We estimated the real-world effectiveness of two doses of BNT162b2 against a range of SARS-CoV-2 outcomes and to evaluate the nationwide public-health impact following the widespread introduction of the vaccine. METHODS: We used national surveillance data from the first 4 months of the nationwide vaccination campaign to ascertain incident cases of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections and outcomes, as well as vaccine uptake in residents of Israel aged 16 years and older. Vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 outcomes (asymptomatic infection, symptomatic infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalisation, severe or critical hospitalisation, and death) was calculated on the basis of incidence rates in fully vaccinated individuals (defined as those for whom 7 days had passed since receiving the second dose of vaccine) compared with rates in unvaccinated individuals (who had not received any doses of the vaccine), with use of a negative binomial regression model adjusted for age group (16-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), sex, and calendar week. The proportion of spike gene target failures on PCR test among a nationwide convenience-sample of SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens was used to estimate the prevelance of the B.1.1.7 variant. FINDINGS: During the analysis period (Jan 24 to April 3, 2021), there were 232 268 SARS-CoV-2 infections, 7694 COVID-19 hospitalisations, 4481 severe or critical COVID-19 hospitalisations, and 1113 COVID-19 deaths in people aged 16 years or older. By April 3, 2021, 4 714 932 (72·1%) of 6 538 911 people aged 16 years and older were fully vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2. Adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness at 7 days or longer after the second dose were 95·3% (95% CI 94·9-95·7; incidence rate 91·5 per 100 000 person-days in unvaccinated vs 3·1 per 100 000 person-days in fully vaccinated individuals) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 91·5% (90·7-92·2; 40·9 vs 1·8 per 100 000 person-days) against asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 97·0% (96·7-97·2; 32·5 vs 0·8 per 100 000 person-days) against symptomatic COVID-19, 97·2% (96·8-97·5; 4·6 vs 0·3 per 100 000 person-days) against COVID-19-related hospitalisation, 97·5% (97·1-97·8; 2·7 vs 0·2 per 100 000 person-days) against severe or critical COVID-19-related hospitalisation, and 96·7% (96·0-97·3; 0·6 vs 0·1 per 100 000 person-days) against COVID-19-related death. In all age groups, as vaccine coverage increased, the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 outcomes declined. 8006 of 8472 samples tested showed a spike gene target failure, giving an estimated prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant of 94·5% among SARS-CoV-2 infections. INTERPRETATION: Two doses of BNT162b2 are highly effective across all age groups (≥16 years, including older adults aged ≥85 years) in preventing symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-related hospitalisations, severe disease, and death, including those caused by the B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant. There were marked and sustained declines in SARS-CoV-2 incidence corresponding to increasing vaccine coverage. These findings suggest that COVID-19 vaccination can help to control the pandemic. FUNDING: None.


Assuntos
Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinação em Massa , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Infecções Assintomáticas/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/virologia , Feminino , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Incidência , Israel/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pandemias , Vigilância da População , RNA Mensageiro , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto Jovem
17.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0251242, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34014947

RESUMO

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic led to closure of nearly all K-12 schools in the United States of America in March 2020. Although reopening K-12 schools for in-person schooling is desirable for many reasons, officials understand that risk reduction strategies and detection of cases are imperative in creating a safe return to school. Furthermore, consequences of reclosing recently opened schools are substantial and impact teachers, parents, and ultimately educational experiences in children. To address competing interests in meeting educational needs with public safety, we compare the impact of physical separation through school cohorts on SARS-CoV-2 infections against policies acting at the level of individual contacts within classrooms. Using an age-stratified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed model, we explore influences of reduced class density, transmission mitigation, and viral detection on cumulative prevalence. We consider several scenarios over a 6-month period including (1) multiple rotating cohorts in which students cycle through in-person instruction on a weekly basis, (2) parallel cohorts with in-person and remote learning tracks, (3) the impact of a hypothetical testing program with ideal and imperfect detection, and (4) varying levels of aggregate transmission reduction. Our mathematical model predicts that reducing the number of contacts through cohorts produces a larger effect than diminishing transmission rates per contact. Specifically, the latter approach requires dramatic reduction in transmission rates in order to achieve a comparable effect in minimizing infections over time. Further, our model indicates that surveillance programs using less sensitive tests may be adequate in monitoring infections within a school community by both keeping infections low and allowing for a longer period of instruction. Lastly, we underscore the importance of factoring infection prevalence in deciding when a local outbreak of infection is serious enough to require reverting to remote learning.


Assuntos
/transmissão , Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Pandemias , Vigilância da População/métodos , Instituições Acadêmicas , Adolescente , Criança , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Estados Unidos
19.
Lancet Digit Health ; 3(6): e349-e359, 2021 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34045001

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Until broad vaccination coverage is reached and effective therapeutics are available, controlling population mobility (ie, changes in the spatial location of a population that affect the spread and distribution of pathogens) is one of the major interventions used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, population mobility differs across locations, which could reduce the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. Here we assess the extent to which socioeconomic factors are associated with reductions in population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the city level in China and at the country level worldwide. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational study, we obtained anonymised daily mobile phone location data for 358 Chinese cities from Baidu, and for 121 countries from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We assessed the intra-city movement intensity, inflow intensity, and outflow intensity of each Chinese city between Jan 25 (when the national emergency response was implemented) and Feb 18, 2020 (when population mobility was lowest) and compared these data to the corresponding lunar calendar period from the previous year (Feb 5 to March 1, 2019). Chinese cities were classified into four socioeconomic index (SEI) groups (high SEI, high-middle SEI, middle SEI, and low SEI) and the association between socioeconomic factors and changes in population mobility were assessed using univariate and multivariable linear regression. At the country level, we compared six types of mobility (residential, transit stations, workplaces, retail and recreation, parks, and groceries and pharmacies) 35 days after the implementation of the national emergency response in each country and compared these to data from the same day of the week in the baseline period (Jan 3 to Feb 6, 2020). We assessed associations between changes in the six types of mobility and the country's sociodemographic index using univariate and multivariable linear regression. FINDINGS: The reduction in intra-city movement intensity in China was stronger in cities with a higher SEI than in those with a lower SEI (r=-0·47, p<0·0001). However, reductions in inter-city movement flow (both inflow and outflow intensity) were not associated with SEI and were only associated with government control measures. In the country-level analysis, countries with higher sociodemographic and Universal Health Coverage indexes had greater reductions in population mobility (ie, in transit stations, workplaces, and retail and recreation) following national emergency declarations than those with lower sociodemographic and Universal Health Coverage indexes. A higher sociodemographic index showed a greater reduction in mobility in transit stations (r=-0·27, p=0·0028), workplaces (r=-0·34, p=0·0002), and areas retail and recreation (rxs=-0·30, p=0·0012) than those with a lower sociodemographic index. INTERPRETATION: Although COVID-19 outbreaks are more frequently reported in larger cities, our analysis shows that future policies should prioritise the reduction of risks in areas with a low socioeconomic level-eg, by providing financial assistance and improving public health messaging. However, our study design only allows us to assess associations, and a long-term study is needed to decipher causality. FUNDING: Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Research Council of Norway, Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission, Beijing Natural Science Foundation, Beijing Advanced Innovation Program for Land Surface Science, National Natural Science Foundation of China, China Association for Science and Technology.


Assuntos
Dinâmica Populacional , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Viagem , Adulto , Telefone Celular , China , Cidades , Saúde Global , Humanos , Dinâmica Populacional/tendências , Vigilância da População/métodos , Estudos Retrospectivos
20.
Lancet Digit Health ; 3(6): e360-e370, 2021 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34045002

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Neisseria meningitidis, which are typically transmitted via respiratory droplets, are leading causes of invasive diseases, including bacteraemic pneumonia and meningitis, and of secondary infections subsequent to post-viral respiratory disease. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence of invasive disease due to these pathogens during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: In this prospective analysis of surveillance data, laboratories in 26 countries and territories across six continents submitted data on cases of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis from Jan 1, 2018, to May, 31, 2020, as part of the Invasive Respiratory Infection Surveillance (IRIS) Initiative. Numbers of weekly cases in 2020 were compared with corresponding data for 2018 and 2019. Data for invasive disease due to Streptococcus agalactiae, a non-respiratory pathogen, were collected from nine laboratories for comparison. The stringency of COVID-19 containment measures was quantified using the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Changes in population movements were assessed using Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. Interrupted time-series modelling quantified changes in the incidence of invasive disease due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in 2020 relative to when containment measures were imposed. FINDINGS: 27 laboratories from 26 countries and territories submitted data to the IRIS Initiative for S pneumoniae (62 837 total cases), 24 laboratories from 24 countries submitted data for H influenzae (7796 total cases), and 21 laboratories from 21 countries submitted data for N meningitidis (5877 total cases). All countries and territories had experienced a significant and sustained reduction in invasive diseases due to S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis in early 2020 (Jan 1 to May 31, 2020), coinciding with the introduction of COVID-19 containment measures in each country. By contrast, no significant changes in the incidence of invasive S agalactiae infections were observed. Similar trends were observed across most countries and territories despite differing stringency in COVID-19 control policies. The incidence of reported S pneumoniae infections decreased by 68% at 4 weeks (incidence rate ratio 0·32 [95% CI 0·27-0·37]) and 82% at 8 weeks (0·18 [0·14-0·23]) following the week in which significant changes in population movements were recorded. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of COVID-19 containment policies and public information campaigns likely reduced transmission of S pneumoniae, H influenzae, and N meningitidis, leading to a significant reduction in life-threatening invasive diseases in many countries worldwide. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (UK), Robert Koch Institute (Germany), Federal Ministry of Health (Germany), Pfizer, Merck, Health Protection Surveillance Centre (Ireland), SpID-Net project (Ireland), European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (European Union), Horizon 2020 (European Commission), Ministry of Health (Poland), National Programme of Antibiotic Protection (Poland), Ministry of Science and Higher Education (Poland), Agencia de Salut Pública de Catalunya (Spain), Sant Joan de Deu Foundation (Spain), Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (Sweden), Swedish Research Council (Sweden), Region Stockholm (Sweden), Federal Office of Public Health of Switzerland (Switzerland), and French Public Health Agency (France).


Assuntos
Infecções Bacterianas/epidemiologia , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Infecções Bacterianas/transmissão , Haemophilus influenzae , Humanos , Incidência , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Neisseria meningitidis , Vigilância da População , Estudos Prospectivos , Prática de Saúde Pública , Streptococcus agalactiae , Streptococcus pneumoniae
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