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1.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33809216

RESUMEN

The accurate prediction of storm surge disasters' direct economic losses plays a positive role in providing critical support for disaster prevention decision-making and management. Previous researches on storm surge disaster loss assessment did not pay much attention to the overfitting phenomenon caused by the data scarcity and the excessive model complexity. To solve these problems, this paper puts forward a new evaluation system for forecasting the regional direct economic loss of storm surge disasters, consisting of three parts. First of all, a comprehensive assessment index system was established by considering the storm surge disasters' formation mechanism and the corresponding risk management theory. Secondly, a novel data augmentation technique, k-nearest neighbor-Gaussian noise (KNN-GN), was presented to overcome data scarcity. Thirdly, an ensemble learning algorithm XGBoost as a regression model was utilized to optimize the results and produce the final forecasting results. To verify the best-combined model, KNN-GN-based XGBoost, we conducted cross-contrast experiments with several data augmentation techniques and some widely-used ensemble learning models. Meanwhile, the traditional prediction models are used as baselines to the optimized forecasting system. The experimental results show that the KNN-GN-based XGBoost model provides more precise predictions than the traditional models, with a 64.1% average improvement in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) measurement. It could be noted that the proposed evaluation system can be extended and applied to the geography-related field as well.

2.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; : 1-8, 2021 Mar 29.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33779538

RESUMEN

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a common mental disorder following traumatic events. The present study was conducted to understand the prevalence of PTSD after the earthquake in Iran and Pakistan. The review includes all articles published from inception to March 2019. The pooled prevalence for overall PTSD was 55.6% (95% CI: 49.9-61.3). It was 60.2% (95% CI: 54.1-66.3) and 49.2% (95% CI: 39.4-59) for Iranian and Pakistani survivors, respectively. Women experienced higher incidence of PTSD than men. The variation of PTSD based on the clinical interview was lower than the self-report approach. The interval time between the earthquakes and the assessment showed that the prevalence of PTSD decreased over time. The prevalence of PTSD in Iran and Pakistan was higher than the global average, and the rate of the disorder in Iran was higher than in Pakistan. Sex, method of assessment, and time lag between the occurrence of disaster and assessment of PTSD affect the prevalence.

3.
Med J (Ft Sam Houst Tex) ; (PB 8-21-01/02/03): 108-110, 2021.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33666921

RESUMEN

COVID-19, a highly infectious virus, presents self-evident problems with regards to aeromedical transportation. Droplet size, proximity of caregiver from the patient, severity of upper and lower respiratory symptoms, personal protective equipment (PPE) and turbulence of airflow are factors which may influence the transmission of any biological agent aboard an air transport platform. Given the relatively confined space of rotary-wing MEDEVAC helicopters and the lack of structural barriers between flight crew and passengers, transmission risk is high, particularly when close contact under these conditions last beyond 15 minutes.1 Some authorities strongly recommend against the rotary-wing evacuation of COVID-19 patients when ground or fixed-wing transport is available due to the high risk of transmission.2,3.


Asunto(s)
Ambulancias Aéreas/organización & administración , /transmisión , Control de Infecciones/organización & administración , Humanos , Equipo de Protección Personal , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto
4.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33731463

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Natural disasters are becoming more frequent and severe, and place additional strains on end-of-life care services and users. Although end-of-life and palliative care are considered essential components of disaster planning and response, there are gaps in understandings about their real-life application, and how natural disasters impact end-of-life care. OBJECTIVE: To synthesise existing evidence of the impacts of natural disasters (eg, bushfires, communicable pandemics, etc) on end-of-life care. METHODS: A systematic review with a narrative synthesis was undertaken. The review was registered on PROSPERO (registration: CRD42020176319). PubMed, Scopus, PsycINFO, Science Direct and Web of Science were searched for studies published in English between 2003 and 2020, with findings explicitly mentioning end-of-life care impacts in relation to a natural disaster. Articles were appraised for quality using a JBI-QARI tool. RESULTS: Thirty-six empirical studies met the inclusion criteria and quality assessment. Findings were synthesised into three key themes: impacts on service provision, impacts on service providers and impacts on service users. This review demonstrates that natural disasters impact profoundly on end-of-life care, representing a stark departure from a palliative care approach. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical practitioners, policy makers and researchers must continue to collaborate for viable solutions to achieve universal access to compassionate and respectful end-of-life care, during natural disasters. Using models, policies and practices already developed in palliative care, involving those most impacted in disaster planning and anticipating barriers, such as resource shortages, enables development of end-of-life care policies and practices that can be rapidly implemented during natural disasters.

6.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 5616, 2021 Mar 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33692451

RESUMEN

Infectious disease outbreaks are increasingly recognised as events that exacerbate impacts or prolong recovery following disasters. Yet, our understanding of the frequency, geography, characteristics and risk factors of post-disaster disease outbreaks globally is lacking. This limits the extent to which disease outbreak risks can be prepared for, monitored and responded to following disasters. Here, we conducted a global systematic review of post-disaster outbreaks and found that outbreaks linked to conflicts and hydrological events were most frequently reported, and most often caused by bacterial and water-borne agents. Lack of adequate WASH facilities and poor housing were commonly reported risk factors. Displacement, through infrastructure damage, can lead to risk cascades for disease outbreaks; however, displacement can also be an opportunity to remove people from danger and ultimately protect health. The results shed new light on post-disaster disease outbreaks and their risks. Understanding these risk factors and cascades, could help improve future region-specific disaster risk reduction.

7.
Disaster Med Public Health Prep ; : 1-8, 2021 Feb 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33583461

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: People with NCDs are particularly vulnerable to disasters. This research systematically reviewed reports describing studies on the status of patients with NCDs before, during and after disasters. METHOD: Relevant articles published from 1997 to 2019 were collected by searching the Scopus, PubMed, and Science Direct databases. We specifically examined reports describing NCDs and including the key words 'Non-Communicable Disease and Disasters.' NCDs include cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes and cancer diseases. RESULTS: The review identified 42 relevant articles. Most of the included studies were found to have described the conditions of patients with NCDs after disasters - 14 (13.3%), during disasters - 11 (26.2%), before disasters - 6 (14.3%), within all stages of disasters: before, during and after - 6 (14.3%), only during and after disasters - 4 (9.5%), and includes before and during disasters - 1 (2.4%). CONCLUSION: NCDs pose major health issues in disasters. Development of strong counter measures against the interruption of treatment, as well as surveillance systems to ascertain medical needs for NCDs are necessary as preparation for future disasters.

8.
Nurse Educ Today ; 99: 104809, 2021 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33611142

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Nurses play a pivotal role in disaster management across the globe. With the call for all nurses to be prepared for disasters, disaster nursing education and training programs have expanded globally. However, a clear picture of the development and coverage of disaster nursing education and training programs is lacking. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to establish an overall picture of the development of disaster nursing education and training programs in the last 20 years, outline the contents included, approaches adopted and outcomes reported. METHODS: A systematic search for relevant literature published between January 2000 to December 2019 was conducted using electronic databases including the CINAHL, MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus with the keywords on disaster nursing education and training. FINDINGS: A total of 75 eligible studies were identified from 3395 potentially relevant articles. The numbers of disaster nursing education and training programs increased gradually over the past 20 years. They were offered in various countries with an unbalanced geographical distribution. Most of the existing programs focused on disaster preparedness and response, especially on the skills of triage during disaster response, instead of addressing the full spectrum of disaster management that included mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery phases. Multiple approaches and technologies were adopted, including competency-based, all-hazard, inter-professional, flipped classroom, simulation, tabletop exercises, and virtual reality ones. Nearly half of the included programs adopted a pre- and post-test evaluation to examine the outcomes of learning and all of the programs reported significant increases in nursing professionals' knowledge and skills of related content on disaster management covered in the training programs. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides nurse leaders, educators and researchers in nursing with an understanding of the state-of-art of the existing disaster nursing education and training programs. More disaster nursing research are necessary to enhance the knowledge, skills and readiness of the nursing professionals for disaster management in meeting global disaster challenges.

11.
Mar Pollut Bull ; 164: 111984, 2021 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33517088

RESUMEN

In August 2019, a major oil spill hit nine Brazilian coastal states, affecting marine ecosystems and fishing communities. In this study, we assess the immediate social and economic impacts of this oil spill on fishing communities of the northeast coast. We conducted semi-structured interviews and focal meetings with 381 fishers and shellfish gatherers to understand the perceived socioeconomic impacts on different types of fishing. We also obtained information on fish consumption after the oil spill, which we compared with data prior to the oil spill from the same communities. Sales decreased by more than 50% for all types of fishing, strongly impacting local income generation. These communities, which are already social-ecologically vulnerable, have had their subsistence, food security and cultural maintenance strongly compromised. We argue that there is a clear need for coordinated state interventions to mitigation the impacts, considering it's environmental, social, economic, human health and political dimensions.


Asunto(s)
Contaminación por Petróleo , Animales , Brasil , Ecosistema , Explotaciones Pesqueras , Humanos , Alimentos Marinos
12.
Trauma Violence Abuse ; 22(1): 176-185, 2021 01.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30866745

RESUMEN

Violence against children affects a significant portion of youth around the world. Emergencies and natural disasters escalate the risk due to weakened child protection systems and disruption of preventative mechanisms. In this systematic review, 692 related papers were searched in various databases in the initial search. After review, 11 papers were finally selected for full review. These papers were selected based on publication date, relevance to emergencies, their geographical area type of violence, age of subjects, and their gender. Most families affected by natural disasters, especially those in lower socioeconomic status, face greater social and economic pressures. The families that are more vulnerable to loss of food and shelter commit violence against children more frequently. On the other hand, while the rate of violence increases in emergencies, the reported rate of violence is less than the actual rate due to lack of required infrastructure and reporting mechanisms. The emergency housing increased risk of some types of child abuse. The history of exposure to violence, parental substance abuse, poverty, and child labor were predictors of increased violence against children in emergency situations. Sexual violence against girls after conflicts and physical violence against boys after emergencies are common forms of violence. Poverty as another predictor exposes children to more violence due to limited family economic resources and support. Given the identified predictors of violence, humanitarian organizations can come closer to providing appropriate plans to reduce the risk during and postdisaster.

13.
Harmful Algae ; 98: 101904, 2020 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33129461

RESUMEN

During the 2015/2016 West Coast Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) season, the opening of the fishery in California was delayed almost five months due to high and persistent concentrations of domoic acid in crab following a massive coast-wide Pseudo-nitzschia australis (P. australis) bloom. A hurdle model was used to estimate lost revenues to fishers due to the delay in the opening of the 2015/2016 season, and an input-output model is used to calculate resulting losses in income and employment statewide. The analysis suggests that Dungeness crab revenue was decreased as a result of the season delay, but the reduction was less than was initially estimated when a request for disaster assistance was submitted. However, the analysis also shows that fishers lost out on revenue from other fisheries equal in magnitude to the reduction in crab revenues because the delayed opening led fishers to reduce effort in non-crab fisheries. The research demonstrates the need to consider impacts beyond the revenue losses to directly affected fisheries. Potential management and industry responses that might mitigate future losses if future large scale P. australis blooms threaten fishery delays or closures are discussed along with the research needed to determine whether and how to implement these strategies.

14.
Rev Sci Tech ; 39(2): 625-635, 2020 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33046914

RESUMEN

Livestock production systems and the societies in which they are embedded face a set of risks presented by infectious diseases and natural and human-made disasters which compromise animal health. Within this set, threats are posed by natural, deliberate and accidental actions that can cause sudden changes in animal health status, requiring the allocation of additional resources to manage animal health. Determining the benefit of preparing for such emergencies is a challenge when the total set of risks includes the unknown. Any method for analysing the economic costs and benefits of animal health emergencies must not only accommodate this uncertainty, but make it a central feature of the analysis. Cost-benefit analysis is a key approach to economically evaluating animal health interventions. However, the value of this approach in dealing with uncertainty is often called into question. This paper makes the case that, by restricting the outcomes of an emergency event to specified states of nature, boundaries can be placed on the uncertainty space, allowing cost-benefit analysis to be performed. This method, which merges state-contingent analysis with cost-benefit analysis, is presented here. Further discussion on the economic characteristics of emergency events, and the nature of the threats posed to animal health systems, is also provided.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles , Desastres , Animales , Enfermedades Transmisibles/veterinaria , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Urgencias Médicas/veterinaria , Humanos , Ganado
15.
Rev Sci Tech ; 39(2): 579-590, 2020 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33046918

RESUMEN

All-hazards preparedness and response planning requires ongoing individual, organisational and multi-jurisdictional learning. Disaster after-action reviews are an established emergency management practice to acquire knowledge through a process of analysing what happened and why, to improve the emergency response before the next crisis. After-action reviews help individuals and organisations learn, and are an essential step in the preparedness cycle. Human and animal health authorities have begun to employ after-action reviews for disaster preparedness and response among public health and Veterinary Services. The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) encourages Members to establish after-action reviews and share best practice. The adoption of afteraction review is an essential step for all provincial, national and multinational emergency management authorities to mitigate the impact of disasters on human and animal health. Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases with pandemic potential pose unique preparedness challenges, requiring high-level policy attention to close long-standing gaps. A review of after-action reports from the 2001 anthrax bioterror attacks and of naturally occurring infectious disease crises, from the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to the 2014 Ebola epidemic, reveal a similar pattern of repeated weakness and failures. These phenomena are described as 'lessons observed but not lessons learned'. Most infectious disease outbreaks with pandemic potential are zoonotic and require a One Health approach to prevent, prepare for and respond to global health security crises. After-action reviews in a One Health security context are essential to improve the pandemic preparedness of public health and Veterinary Services. After-action reviews can also provide the evidence-based 'feedback loop' needed to galvanise public policy and political will to translate lessons observed into sustained and applied lessons learned.


Asunto(s)
Desastres , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola , Animales , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , Brotes de Enfermedades/veterinaria , Salud Global , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/epidemiología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/veterinaria , Humanos , Salud Pública
16.
Sci Rep ; 10(1): 16487, 2020 10 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33020508

RESUMEN

The Italian Government has decreed a series of progressive restrictions to delay the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion in Italy since March 10, 2020, including limitation in individual mobility and the closure of social, cultural, economic and industrial activities. Here we show the lockdown effect in Northern Italy, the COVID-19 most affected area, as revealed by noise variation at seismic stations. The reaction to lockdown was slow and not homogeneous with spots of negligible noise reduction, especially in the first week. A fresh interpretation of seismic noise variations in terms of socio-economic indicators sheds new light on the lockdown efficacy pointing to the causes of such delay: the noise reduction is significant where non strategic activities prevails, while it is small or negligible where dense population and strategic activities are present. These results are crucial for the a posteriori interpretation of the pandemic diffusion and the efficacy of differently targeted political actions.


Asunto(s)
Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Terremotos/estadística & datos numéricos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Humanos , Italia , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Relación Señal-Ruido , Tiempo
17.
Iran J Public Health ; 49(5): 837-850, 2020 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32953672

RESUMEN

Background: Disasters are increasing all over the world. Iran, is one of the high-risk countries in this regard; so it is unavoidable to prepare hospitals as vital centers when disasters happen. This study aimed to evaluation the hospital preparedness based on previous studies in Iran. Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis by browsing through all articles published since 2006 to 2017, in English and Persian both languages were designed. Databases that we searched to, include Google Scholar, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Medlib, Cochrane Library, Science Direct, Internationally and SID, Irandoc and Magiran, domestically. Two expert researchers investigated separately. Researchers used random and fixed effect models in the meta-analysis. Moreover, random and fixed effects model and meta-regression tests were applied by using STATA ver. 11. The P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Twenty-five studies with a sample size of 181 hospitals were introduced to the process of meta-analysis. Iranian hospital preparedness is 53%, totally, that is moderate. Preparedness in different categories is as follows: emergency services 62%, communication 57%, security 54%, education 57%, logistic 65%, human resources 52%, Management and command 64%, reception 43%, transfer and evacuation 44%, traffic 47%, non-structural safety 57%, and structural safety 49%. Conclusion: Hospital preparedness is moderate in Iran. Optimal management of existing resources and the use of Update technologies in the field of hospital services be directed towards improving the preparedness of hospitals for disasters.

18.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239293, 2020.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32966335

RESUMEN

Economies are frequently affected by natural disasters and both domestic and overseas financial crises. These events disrupt production and cause multiple other types of economic losses, including negative impacts on the banking system. Understanding the transmission mechanism that causes various negative second-order post-catastrophe effects is crucial if policymakers are to develop more efficient recovery strategies. In this work, we introduce a credit-based adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) model to analyse the effects of disasters and crises on the supply chain and bank-firm credit networks. Using real Japanese networks and the exogenous shocks of the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the Great East Japan Earthquake (March 11, 2011), this paper aims to depict how these negative shocks propagate through the supply chain and affect the banking system. The credit-based ARIO model is calibrated using Latin hypercube sampling and the design of experiments procedure to reproduce the short-term (one-year) dynamics of the Japanese industrial production index after the 2008 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. Then, through simulation experiments, we identify the chemical and petroleum manufacturing and transport sectors as the most vulnerable Japanese industrial sectors. Finally, the case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake is simulated for Japanese prefectures to understand differences among regions in terms of globally engendered indirect economic losses. Tokyo and Osaka prefectures are the most vulnerable locations because they hold greater concentrations of the above-mentioned vulnerable industrial sectors.


Asunto(s)
Comercio/economía , Economía , Desastres Naturales/economía , Quiebra Bancaria/economía , Terremotos/economía , Humanos , Japón , Tokio
19.
Int J Pharm Pract ; 2020 Sep 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32881173

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: In the aftermath of a disaster, the services provided by pharmacists are essential to ensure the continued health and well-being of the local population. To continue pharmacy services, it is critical that pharmacists are prepared for disasters. A systematic literature review was conducted to explore pharmacists' and pharmacy students' preparedness for disasters and the factors that affect preparedness. METHODS: This review was conducted in April 2020 through electronic databases CINAHL, MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Scopus and PsycINFO, and two disaster journals. Search terms such as 'pharmacist*', 'disaster*' and 'prepared*' were used. The search yielded an initial 1781 titles. Articles were included if they measured pharmacists or pharmacy students' disaster preparedness. After screening and quality appraisal by two researchers, four articles were included in final analysis and review. Data were extracted using a data collection tool formulated by the researchers. Meta-analysis was not possible; instead, results were compared across key areas including preparedness ratings and factors that influenced preparedness. KEY FINDINGS: Three articles focused on pharmacy students' preparedness for disasters, and one on registered pharmacists' preparedness. Preparedness across both groups was poor to moderate with <18% of registered pharmacists found to be prepared to respond to a disaster. Factors that potentially influenced preparedness included disaster competency, disaster interventions and demographic factors. CONCLUSION: For pharmacists, the lack of research around their preparedness speaks volumes about their current involvement and expectations within disaster management. Without a prepared pharmacy workforce and pharmacy involvement in disaster management, critical skill and service gaps in disasters may negatively impact patients.

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