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1.
Rev. esp. geriatr. gerontol. (Ed. impr.) ; 59(2): [101449], Mar-Abr. 2024. tab, graf
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-231164

RESUMO

Fundamento: Analizar las características epidemiológicas, clínicas y funcionales de los pacientes ingresados en el Hospital Universitario de Navarra por infección por SARS-CoV-2, así como los factores predictores de mortalidad, durante la primera ola de la pandemia provocada por este virus. Metodología: Estudio observacional y retrospectivo de todos los pacientes hospitalizados mayores de 75 años entre marzo y noviembre de 2020. Se ha obtenido información sobre múltiples variables, entre las que cabe destacar los síndromes geriátricos previos y que han aparecido durante la hospitalización, o los antecedentes médicos considerados relevantes en la infección por SARS-CoV-2. Se ha realizado un análisis descriptivo de los datos, comparaciones según diversos factores de interés y análisis multivariable para analizar los factores asociados a la mortalidad. Resultados: Se obtuvieron datos de un total de 426 pacientes cuya edad media fue de 83,2 años (52,6% varones). El 34,7% fallecieron en el hospital y el 4,5% antes de un mes tras el alta hospitalaria. Los factores relacionados con la mortalidad fueron: peor situación funcional basal, enfermedad renal crónica y fiebre o disnea como formas de presentación. Los síntomas típicos más frecuentes fueron: fiebre, disnea, tos, astenia e hiporexia. Hasta el 42,1% presentaron delirium como síntoma de inicio atípico. Se objetivó un deterioro funcional que no se recuperó al mes de seguimiento (índice de Barthel basal 81,12; 70,08 al alta; 75,55 al mes). Conclusiones: La infección por SARS-CoV-2 ha provocado elevadas tasas de mortalidad en las personas mayores. En este grupo etario, es frecuente la forma de presentación atípica de esta enfermedad y el deterioro funcional durante la hospitalización. En el presente estudio se ha identificado un peor estado funcional previo como predictor de mortalidad. Son necesarios más estudios que evalúen el impacto que la enfermedad y la hospitalización tienen en el paciente mayor...(AU)


Background: The objective of the present study is to analyze the epidemiological, clinical and functional characteristics of patients admitted to the University Hospital of Navarra due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as the predictors of mortality, during the first wave of the pandemic caused by this virus. Methodology: An observational, retrospective study was performed, including all hospitalized patients older than 75 years. Information has been obtained on multiple variables, among which it is worth mentioning previous geriatric syndromes or those that have appeared during hospitalization, or past medical history considered relevant in SARS-CoV-2 infection. A descriptive analysis of the data, comparisons according to various factors of interest and multivariate analysis to analyze factors associated with mortality were carried out. Results: Data have been obtained from a total of 426 patients with a mean age of 83.2 years (52.6% men). 34.7% died in hospital and 4.5% within 1 month after hospital discharge. The factors related to mortality were: worse baseline functional status, chronic kidney disease, and fever or dyspnea as forms of presentation. The most frequent typical symptoms were: fever, dyspnea, cough, asthenia and hyporexia. Up to 42.1% presented delirium as a symptom of atypical onset. We observed a functional deterioration that was not recover after a month of follow-up (baseline Barthel index 81.12; 70.08 at discharge; 75.55 after a month). Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 infection has caused high mortality rates in older adults. In this age group, the atypical presentation of this disease and functional deterioration during hospitalization are frequent. In the present study, a worse previous functional status has been identified as a predictor of mortality. More studies are needed to evaluate the impact that the disease and hospitalization have on the older patient...(AU)


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , /epidemiologia , Diagnóstico Precoce , Hospitalização , Mortalidade , Geriatria , Saúde do Idoso , Estudos Retrospectivos , /diagnóstico
2.
Med. intensiva (Madr., Ed. impr.) ; 48(3): 133-141, Mar. 2024. tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | IBECS | ID: ibc-231019

RESUMO

Objective To analyze characteristics, changes in oxygenation, and pulmonary mechanics, in mechanically ventilated patients with ARDS due to SARS-CoV-2 treated with prone position and evaluate the response to this maneuver.Design Cohort study including patients with PaO2/FiO2 <150mmHg requiring prone position over 18 months. We classified patients according to PaO2/FiO2 changes from basal to 24h after the first prone cycle as: 1) no increase 2) increase <25%, 3) 25%–50% increase 4) increase >50%. Setting 33-bed medical-surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in Argentina. Patients 273 patients. Interventions None. Main variables of interest Epidemiological characteristics, respiratory mechanics and oxygenation were compared between survivors and non-survivors. Independent factors associated with in-hospital mortality were identified. Results Baseline PaO2/FiO2 was 116 [97–135]mmHg (115 [94–136] in survivors vs. 117 [98–134] in non-survivors; p=0.50). After prone positioning, 22 patients (8%) had similar PaO2/FiO2 values; 46(16%) increased PaO2/FiO2 ≤25%; 55 (21%) increased it 25%–50%; and 150 (55%), >50%. Mortality was 86%, 87%, 72% and 50% respectively (p<0.001). Baseline PaO2/FiO2, <100mmHg did not imply that patients were refractory to prone position. Factors independently associated with mortality were age, percentage increase in PaO2/FiO2 after 24h being in prone, and number of prone cycles. Conclusions Older patients unable to improve PaO2/FiO2 after 24h in prone position and who require >1 cycle might early receive additional treatments for refractory hypoxemia. After the first 24h in the prone position, a low percentage of PaO2/FiO2 increase over baseline, beyond the initial value, was independently associated with higher mortality. (AU)


Objetivo Analizar las características, cambios en la oxigenación y mecánica pulmonar, en pacientes ventilados mecánicamente con SDRA por SARS-CoV-2 tratados con posición prona, y evaluar la respuesta a esta maniobra. Diseño Estudio de cohorte que incluyó pacientes con PaO2/FiO2 <150mmHg que requirieron posición prona durante 18 meses. Se clasificaron los pacientes según los cambios de PaO2/FiO2 desde el basal y 24horas después del primer ciclo prono como: 1) Sin aumento 2) Aumento <25%, 3) 25–50% de aumento 4) Aumento >50%. Ambito Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) médico-quirúrgica de 33 camas en Argentina. Pacientes 273 pacientes. Intervenciones Ninguna. Principales variables de interés Se compararon características epidemiológicas, mecánica respiratoria y oxigenación entre sobrevivientes y no sobrevivientes. Se identificaron factores independientes asociados a la mortalidad hospitalaria. Resultados La PaO2/FiO2 basal fue de 116 [97–135]mmHg (115 [94–136] en sobrevivientes vs. 117 [98–134] en no sobrevivientes; p=0,50). Después de la posición prona, 22 pacientes (8%) tenían valores similares de PaO2/FiO2; 46 (16%) aumentaron PaO2/FiO2 ≤25%; 55 (21%) lo aumentaron 25%–50%; y 150 (55%), >50%. La mortalidad fue de 86%, 87%, 72% y 50% respectivamente (p<0,001). La PaO2/FiO2 basal, <100mmHg no implicó que los pacientes fueran refractarios a la posición prona. Los factores asociados independientemente con la mortalidad fueron la edad, el aumento porcentual de PaO2/FiO2 después de 24horas en prona, y el número de ciclos prono. Conclusiones Los pacientes mayores que no pueden mejorar PaO2/FiO2 después de 24 horas en posición prona y que requieren más de 1 ciclo podrían recibir tratamientos adicionales para la hipoxemia refractaria. Después de las primeras 24horas en decúbito prono, un bajo porcentaje de aumento de PaO2/FiO2 sobre el valor basal, más allá del valor inicial, se asoció de forma independiente con una mayor mortalidad. (AU)


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Mortalidade , Fatores de Risco , Decúbito Ventral , Síndrome Torácica Aguda/mortalidade , Síndrome Torácica Aguda/terapia , /epidemiologia , Respiração Artificial , Mecânica Respiratória , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório do Recém-Nascido/mortalidade , Oxigenação , Argentina/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva
3.
SEMERGEN, Soc. Esp. Med. Rural Gen. (Ed. Impr.) ; 50(2): [102073], Mar. 2024. tab, graf
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-231242

RESUMO

La pandemia COVID-19 ha puesto a prueba los sistemas sanitarios a nivel mundial. Las sucesivas ondas epidémicas han mostrado características diferentes. La variante Ómicron del SARS-CoV-2 modificó el comportamiento epidémico que habían seguido las variantes previas. El objetivo de este análisis fue determinar las características epidemiológicas de la COVID-19 durante la 6.ª onda epidémica y sus diferencias según predominara las variantes Delta u Ómicron. Se analizaron los datos epidemiológicos correspondientes a la 6.ª onda epidémica publicados por los organismos oficiales, y se analizaron la incidencia acumulada de infección (IA-I) y las tasas de letalidad (TL), tanto del conjunto de España como de las diferentes Comunidades Autónomas, en el conjunto de la población y por grupos etarios. Los resultados mostraron que la IA-I era mayor con la variante Ómicron (10,89 vs. 0,75% con Delta) mientras que la TL lo era con la variante Delta (4,2 vs. 1,3‰ con Ómicron), así como una mayor tasa de hospitalización e ingreso en UCI con la variante Delta.(AU)


The COVID-19 pandemic has strained healthcare systems globally. The successive epidemic waves have shown different characteristics. The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 modified the epidemic behavior that previous variants had followed. The aim of this analysis was to determine the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 during the sixth epidemic wave and its differences according to the predominance of the Delta or Omicron variants. The epidemiological data corresponding to the sixth wave of the epidemic published by official organizations were analyzed, and the cumulative incidence of infection (CI-I) and case fatality rates (CFR) were calculated, both for Spain as a whole and for the different Autonomous Communities, in the population as a whole and by age groups. The results showed that the CI-I was higher with the Ómicron variant (10.89% vs 0.75% with Delta) while the CFR was higher with the Delta variant (4.2‰ vs 1.3‰ with Ómicron), as well as a higher rate of hospitalization and ICU admission with the Delta variant.(AU)


Assuntos
Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , /tratamento farmacológico , /epidemiologia , Mortalidade , Incidência , Epidemiologia Descritiva , Espanha
5.
J Int Med Res ; 52(3): 3000605241236278, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38483140

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of dynamic changes in lymphocyte-C-reactive protein ratio (LCR) on differentiating disease severity and predicting disease progression in adult patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: This single-centre retrospective study enrolled adult COVID-19 patients categorized into moderate, severe and critical groups according to the Diagnosis and Treatment of New Coronavirus Pneumonia (ninth edition). Demographic and clinical data were collected. LCR and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score were calculated. Lymphocyte count and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were monitored on up to four occasions. Disease severity was determined concurrently with each LCR measurement. RESULTS: This study included 145 patients assigned to moderate (n = 105), severe (n = 33) and critical groups (n = 7). On admission, significant differences were observed among different disease severity groups including age, comorbidities, neutrophil proportion, lymphocyte count and proportion, D-Dimer, albumin, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, indirect bilirubin, CRP and SOFA score. Dynamic changes in LCR showed significant differences across different disease severity groups at different times, which were significantly inversely correlated with disease severity of COVID-19, with correlation coefficients of -0.564, -0.548, -0.550 and -0.429 at four different times. CONCLUSION: Dynamic changes in LCR can effectively differentiate disease severity and predict disease progression in adult COVID-19 patients.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Proteína C-Reativa/análise , SARS-CoV-2 , Biomarcadores , Gravidade do Paciente , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Linfócitos/metabolismo , Progressão da Doença , Bilirrubina
7.
Antibiotics (Basel) ; 13(3)2024 Mar 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38534701

RESUMO

Acinetobacter baumannii has been described as a cause of serious community-acquired infections in tropical countries. Currently, its implications when simultaneously identified with other pathogens are not yet adequately understood. A descriptive study was conducted on hospitalized patients with a diagnosis of moderate/severe SARS-CoV-2-induced pneumonia confirmed via real-time RT-PCR. Patients aged > 18 years who were admitted to a specialized COVID-19 treatment center in Peru were selected for enrollment. A. baumannii was detected via the PCR amplification of the blaOXA-51 gene obtained from nasopharyngeal swabs within 48 h of hospitalization. A total of 295 patients with COVID-19 who met the study inclusion criteria were enrolled. A. baumannii was simultaneously identified in 40/295 (13.5%) of COVID-19-hospitalized patients. Demographic data and comorbidities were comparable in both Acinetobacter-positive and -negative subgroups. However, patients identified as being infected with Acinetobacter were more likely to have received outpatient antibiotics prior to hospitalization, had a higher requirement for high-flow nasal cannula and a higher subjective incidence of fatigue, and were more likely to develop Acinetobacter-induced pneumonia during hospitalization. Conclusions: The group in which SARS-CoV-2 and A. baumannii were simultaneously identified had a higher proportion of fatigue, a higher frequency of requiring a high-flow cannula, and a higher proportion of superinfection with the same microorganism during hospitalization.

8.
Diagnostics (Basel) ; 14(6)2024 Mar 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38535062

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 continues to pose a significant threat worldwide, with severe cases leading to hospitalization and death. This study aims to evaluate the potential use of serum nucleocapsid antigen (NAg) and Krebs von den Lungen-6 glycoprotein (KL-6) as biomarkers of severe COVID-19 and to investigate their correlation with clinical, radiological, and biochemical parameters. METHODS: This retrospective study included 128 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to a Neapolitan hospital in Italy between October 2020 and July 2021. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected, including serum levels of NAg and KL-6. The Chung et al. Computed Tomography Severity Score (TSS) was used to assess the severity of pneumonia, and outcomes were classified as home discharge, rehabilitation, and death. Statistical analyses were performed to compare Group I (home discharge and rehabilitation) and Group II (death, sub-intensive care, and ICU stay) based on demographic data, laboratory parameters, and TSS. RESULTS: Group II patients showed worse outcomes with higher levels of NAg, KL-6, and inflammatory markers, including interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R), and adrenomedullin. TSS was also significantly higher in Group II, with a positive correlation between TSS and NAg and KL-6 levels. Group I patients had higher values of hemoglobin (Hb) and platelets (PLT), while Group II patients had higher values of C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), D-Dimer, and glycemia. No significant difference was observed in gender distribution. CONCLUSIONS: Serum NAg and KL-6 levels are potential biomarkers of severe COVID-19 pneumonia, with higher levels indicating greater inflammation and organ damage. NAg may help identify infected patients at an increased risk of severe COVID-19 and ensure their admission to the most appropriate level of care. KL-6 may help predict interstitial lung damage and the severity of clinical features. Further studies are needed to establish a decision-making cut-off for these biomarkers in COVID-19.

9.
Pathogens ; 13(3)2024 Mar 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38535610

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 has acquired many mutations that influence the severity of COVID-19's course or the risk of developing long COVID. In 2022, the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant was Omicron. This study aimed to compare the course of COVID-19 in the periods before and during the dominance of the Omicron variant. Risk factors for developing long COVID were also assessed. This study was based on stationary visits of patients after COVID-19 and follow-up assessments after 3 months. Clinical symptoms, comorbidities, and vaccination status were evaluated in 1967 patients. Of the analyzed group, 1308 patients (66.5%) were affected by COVID-19 in the period before the Omicron dominance. The prevalence of long COVID was significantly lower among patients of the Omicron group (47.7% vs. 66.9%, p < 0.001). The risk of long COVID was higher for women (OR: 1.61; 95% CI: 1.31, 1.99]) and asthmatics (OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.03, 2.07]). Conclusively, infection during the Omicron-dominant period was linked to a lower risk of developing long COVID. Females are at higher risk of developing long COVID independent of the pandemic period. Individuals affected by COVID-19 in the Omicron-dominant period experience a shorter duration of symptoms and reduced frequency of symptoms, except for coughing, which occurs more often.

10.
Turk J Pediatr ; 66(1): 42-56, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38523378

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: At the onset of the pandemic, we conducted a study on adolescents with eating disorders (EDs) and found no deterioration in ED symptoms. The objective of this subsequent study was to conduct a follow-up evaluation of the same cohort and investigate the consequences of the prolonged pandemic. METHODS: This longitudinal study was conducted one year after the first study between May 2021 and June 2021 with 37 adolescents aged 12-18 years (pre-existing EDs). The reassessment included an evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, the impact of pandemic-related restrictions on ED behaviors, well-being, and quality of life. All the participants underwent a re-administration of the ED examination questionnaire (EDE-Q), Beck Depression Inventory, the State Anxiety Inventory for Children, and the Maudsley Obsessive Compulsive Inventory. RESULTS: No significant difference was observed in the EDE-Q scores or the ED examination questionnaire scores between the initial (T1) and subsequent (T2) study. The ED-related quality of life was seen to have slightly improved in the later stage. While depression (T1: 18, T2: 15, p=0.883) and obsession scores (T1: 11, T2: 14, p: 0.536) showed no disparity between the studies, anxiety scores (T1: 38, T2: 43, p:0.011) exhibited a significant increase. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with the early phase, no exacerbation of ED symptoms in adolescents was observed during the later stages of the pandemic. Close clinical monitoring during the pandemic might have been protective against the deteriorating effects of the pandemic. During social isolation, it is important to monitor adolescents with EDs continously for depression and anxiety.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Transtornos da Alimentação e da Ingestão de Alimentos , Criança , Humanos , Adolescente , Seguimentos , Pandemias , Qualidade de Vida , Estudos Longitudinais , Turquia , Transtornos da Alimentação e da Ingestão de Alimentos/epidemiologia
11.
Cureus ; 16(2): e54738, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38524004

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: With the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, numerous questions have arisen regarding the screening, diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of infected patients. Among these, screening infected patients through body temperature measurement has proven ineffective. However, doubts persist regarding the role of fever as a prognostic factor in the disease. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence of fever and its relevance as a marker of mortality in COVID-19. METHODOLOGY: This prospective and longitudinal cohort study was conducted between April 2020 and December 2021 and analyzed 1400 COVID-19 patients systematically admitted to the emergency department of a reference hospital during the period from April 2020 to December 2021, in the city of Curitiba, Brazil. [LG1] The study evaluated [LG2] the presence of fever (body temperature above 37,7ºC) upon admission and/or during hospitalization, patient profiles, and outcomes (in-hospital death, discharge, admission at the intensive care unit, need of mechanical ventilation). RESULTS: Fever was present in 128 participants (9.1%), with a higher prevalence in males (71%) and obese individuals (42.9%). Among the febrile patients, 39 required intubation (30.4%), with two intubated upon admission (1.5%), 104 were discharged (81.2%), and 24 deceased (18.7%). Fever was not associated with a higher mortality rate. CONCLUSION: Fever showed low prevalence, is more common in males and obese individuals, and is not related to worse clinical outcomes.

12.
J Occup Environ Med ; 2024 Mar 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38527186

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To assess the psychological impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the police and armed forces. METHODS: Participants (N = 242) completed an online survey that assessed post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), burnout, emotional suppression, and labour and sociodemographic variables. Mean difference, correlation, and stepwise linear regression tests were performed. RESULTS: One-third of participants showed severe PTSS, linked to patrolling duties, very frequent contact with other people, fear of contagion, perceived pandemic severity, living with at-risk people, taking a COVID-19 test, working more than normal, suffering an assault, having little vacation, and having to distance from loved ones. PTSS also correlated with the burnout dimensions and emotional suppression. Three-quarters had not received any support from their workplace. CONCLUSIONS: Effective interventions to optimise these professionals' personal, social, and working conditions are needed.

13.
Vaccine ; 2024 Mar 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38490821

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Low rates of COVID-19 vaccination remain a substantial public health challenge. Despite early successes, vaccinations of Alaskans trail the US average, drawing attention to the need for better-designed and targeted vaccine confidence interventions. Our objective was to assess levels of community trust and theory-driven predictors of vaccination status to inform the design of future programs. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, telephone-based survey of 940 Alaskan adults between May and June 2022. Data were collected on vaccination status (including initial vaccination and receipt of booster shots), trust in local community members, demographic characteristics, and thematic questions designed using the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation - Behavior (COM-B) model to examine possible predictors (barriers/facilitators) of vaccination status. FINDINGS: Among those who are not fully vaccinated and boosted, we observe significantly lower trust placed in many immediate community members, especially health workers (e.g., doctors, nurses, specialty care physicians, health administrators). Firefighters and emergency medical technicians enjoy the most community trust, followed by medical professionals. Among those who received only an primary vaccine series, we find that perceptions of whether close friends are vaccinated, a sense of professional responsibility, and age were the strongest predictors vaccination status. Among the unvaccinated, we find significant predictive power from the same variables, as well as perceptions of whether family members are vaccinated, perceived risks from non-vaccination and whether vaccination is a healthy choice. CONCLUSIONS: These findings will help inform the design and targeting of future vaccine promotion interventions to adult populations in Alaska. Interventions that leverage reflective motivation and social opportunity domains of the COM-B framework may be most effective. Local community members including firefighters and emergency medical technicians, as well as medical professionals may be perceived as the most trustworthy and influential messengers among those who are not fully vaccinated and boosted.

14.
Angiology ; : 33197241241790, 2024 Mar 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38532622

RESUMO

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is an important complication of stroke. As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) enters the stage of persistent and long-term management, the clinical management of DVT in stroke patients may require adjustment. The present study evaluated whether there was an increased risk of DVT in stroke patients during the COVID-19 period. Furthermore, we analyzed the possible risk factors and developed an easy-to-use nomogram to predict DVT in stroke patients during the long-term management of COVID-19. A total of 7087 stroke patients during the COVID-19 period and 14,174 patients with age, sex, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) scores matched before the period from four centers were included. The incidence of DVT in stroke patients during the COVID-19 period (20.5%) was significantly higher than that before this period (15.9%, P < .001). Age, body mass index, smoking, D-dimer, physical activity level, NIHSS score, and intermittent pneumatic compression were significant predictors of DVT during the COVID-19 period (P < .05). A nomogram was constructed; internal and external validations showed high accuracy, and decision curve analysis showed excellent clinical applicability. This nomogram could evaluate the risk of DVT after stroke and assist in its early prevention during the long-term management of COVID-19.

15.
PNAS Nexus ; 3(3): pgae064, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38533108

RESUMO

To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables-constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors-are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness, and resilience crucially depend on the detailed structure of nonaggregated firm-level production networks (FPNs). Due to nonavailability of data, little is known about how much aggregated sector-based and detailed firm-level-based model predictions differ. Using a nearly complete nationwide FPN, containing 243,399 Hungarian firms with 1,104,141 supplier-buyer relations, we self-consistently compare production losses on the aggregated industry-level production network (IPN) and the granular FPN. For this, we model the propagation of shocks of the same size on both, the IPN and FPN, where the latter captures relevant heterogeneities within industries. In a COVID-19 inspired scenario, we model the shock based on detailed firm-level data during the early pandemic. We find that using IPNs instead of FPNs leads to an underestimation of economic losses of up to 37%, demonstrating a natural limitation of industry-level IO models in predicting economic outcomes. We ascribe the large discrepancy to the significant heterogeneity of firms within industries: we find that firms within one sector only sell 23.5% to and buy 19.3% from the same industries on average, emphasizing the strong limitations of industrial sectors for representing the firms they include. Similar error levels are expected when estimating economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the impact of policy interventions with industry-level IO models. Granular data are key for reasonable predictions of dynamical economic systems.

16.
Hum Vaccin Immunother ; 20(1): 2304974, 2024 Dec 31.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38512394

RESUMO

AZD1222 (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) is a replication-deficient adenoviral vectored coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) vaccine that is manufactured as SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 by the Serum Institute of India Pvt Ltd following technology transfer from Oxford University/AstraZeneca. The non-inferiority of SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 with AZD1222 was previously demonstrated in an observer-blind, phase 2/3 immuno-bridging study (trial registration: CTRI/2020/08/027170). In this analysis of immunogenicity and safety data 6 months post first vaccination (Day 180), 1,601 participants were randomized 3:1 to SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or AZD1222 (immunogenicity/reactogenicity cohort n = 401) and 3:1 to SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or placebo (safety cohort n = 1,200). Immunogenicity was measured by anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 spike (anti-S) binding immunoglobulin G and neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers. A decline in anti-S titers was observed in both vaccine groups, albeit with a greater decline in SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinees (geometric mean titer [GMT] ratio [95% confidence interval (CI) of SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 to AZD1222]: 0.60 [0.41-0.87]). Consistent similar decreases in nAb titers were observed between vaccine groups (GMT ratio [95% CI]: 0.88 [0.44-1.73]). No cases of severe COVID-19 were reported following vaccination, while one case was observed in the placebo group. No causally related serious adverse events were reported through 180 days. No thromboembolic or autoimmune adverse events of special interest were reported. Collectively, these data illustrate that SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 maintained a high level of immunogenicity 6 months post-vaccination. SII-ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 was safe and well tolerated.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 , Adulto , Humanos , Vacinas contra COVID-19/efeitos adversos , Seguimentos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Imunoglobulina G , Imunogenicidade da Vacina , Anticorpos Antivirais
17.
JAMIA Open ; 7(1): ooae014, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38444986

RESUMO

Objectives: The goal of this study is to propose and test a scalable framework for machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict near-term severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cases by incorporating and evaluating the impact of real-time dynamic public health data. Materials and Methods: Data used in this study include patient-level results, procurement, and location information of all SARS-CoV-2 tests reported in West Virginia as part of their mandatory reporting system from January 2021 to March 2022. We propose a method for incorporating and comparing widely available public health metrics inside of a ML framework, specifically a long-short-term memory network, to forecast SARS-CoV-2 cases across various feature sets. Results: Our approach provides better prediction of localized case counts and indicates the impact of the dynamic elements of the pandemic on predictions, such as the influence of the mixture of viral variants in the population and variable testing and vaccination rates during various eras of the pandemic. Discussion: Utilizing real-time public health metrics, including estimated Rt from multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccination rates, and testing information, provided a significant increase in the accuracy of the model during the Omicron and Delta period, thus providing more precise forecasting of daily case counts at the county level. This work provides insights on the influence of various features on predictive performance in rural and non-rural areas. Conclusion: Our proposed framework incorporates available public health metrics with operational data on the impact of testing, vaccination, and current viral variant mixtures in the population to provide a foundation for combining dynamic public health metrics and ML models to deliver forecasting and insights in healthcare domains. It also shows the importance of developing and deploying ML frameworks in rural settings.

18.
Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act ; 21(1): 29, 2024 Mar 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38448922

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of longitudinal studies examining changes in device-measured physical activity and sedentary time from childhood to young adulthood. We aimed to assess changes in device-measured physical activity and sedentary time from childhood, through adolescence, into young adulthood in a Norwegian sample of ostensibly healthy men and women. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort of 731 Norwegian boys and girls (49% girls) participated at age 9 years (2005-2006) and 15 years (2011-2012), and 258 of these participated again at age 24 years (2019-2021; including the COVID-19 pandemic period). Physical activity and sedentary time were measured using ActiGraph accelerometers. Linear mixed models were used to analyse changes in physical activity and sedentary time and whether low levels of childhood physical activity track, i.e., persist into young adulthood (nchange=721; ntracking=640). RESULTS: The most prominent change occurred between the ages of 9 to 15 years, with an increase in sedentary time (150 min/day) and less time spent in light (125 min/day), moderate (16 min/day), and vigorous physical activity (8 min/day). Only smaller changes were observed between the ages of 15 and 24 years. Changes in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity from childhood to young adulthood differed between subgroups of sex, tertiles of body mass index at baseline and tertiles of peak oxygen uptake at baseline. While the tracking models indicated low absolute stability of physical activity from childhood to young adulthood, children in the lowest quartiles of moderate-to-vigorous (OR:1.88; 95%CI: 1.23, 2.86) and total physical activity (OR: 1.87; 95%CI: 1.21, 2.87) at age 9 years were almost 90% more likely to be in these quartiles at age 24 years compared to those belonging to the upper three quartiles at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: We found a substantial reduction in physical activity and increase in time spent sedentary between age 9 and 15 years. Contrary to previous studies, using mainly self-reported physical activity, little change was observed between adolescence and young adulthood. The least active children were more likely to remain the least active adults and could be targeted for early intervention.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Adolescente , Adulto , Masculino , Criança , Humanos , Feminino , Adulto Jovem , Recém-Nascido , Seguimentos , Índice de Massa Corporal , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Exercício Físico
19.
Front Cardiovasc Med ; 11: 1297824, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38455719

RESUMO

Introduction: The prognostic ability of myocardial injury across different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic is not well established. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence and prognostic implications of myocardial injury in the first and sixth wave of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study that included patients admitted to the emergency department with COVID-19 with data on concentrations of cardiac troponin during the first and sixth wave. We compared the prevalence of myocardial injury and its predictive capacity for 30-day all-cause death in both waves. Results and discussion: A total of 346 patients were included (1st wave 199 and 6th wave 147 patients). The prevalence of myocardial injury was 21% with non-significant differences between waves. Myocardial injury was associated, in both waves, with a higher prevalence of comorbidities and with an increased risk of 30-day all-cause death [1st wave HR: 3.73 (1.84-7.55); p < 0.001 and 6th wave HR: 3.13 (1.23-7.92); p = 0.016], with non-significant differences in predictive capacity between groups after ROC curve analysis [AUC: 1st wave 0.829 (95% CI: 0.764-0.895) and 6th wave 0.794 (95% CI: 0.711-0.876)]. As limitations, this is a retrospective study with a relatively small simple size and troponin assay was performed at the discretion of the emergency physician so selection bias could be present. In conclusion, the prevalence of myocardial injury and its prognostic capacity was similar in both waves despite vaccination programs. Myocardial injury predicts short-term mortality in all COVID-19 patients, so they should be treated intensively.

20.
Infez Med ; 32(1): 25-36, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38456030

RESUMO

Aim: This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic and prognostic value of anti-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Spike IgG/IgM antibodies in patients infected with coronavirus Delta variant. Methods: This analytical observational study included 270 unvaccinated patients (aged ≥18 years) diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Delta variant who referred to Emergency Department of our hospital. The serum levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG and IgM were measured by indirect ELISA. Main measured outcomes included anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG and IgM, chest computed tomography (CT) severity score, clinical and laboratory findings which were prospectively evaluated throughout the study period. Results: The IgM levels in critical patients were significantly higher than non-critical patients (p<0.05). But the mean level of IgG in critical patients was not significantly different from its level in non-critical patients (p>0.05). However, a significant positive correlation was observed between the levels of both antibodies and chest CT severity score (p<0.0001); this implies that their levels may reflect the degree of lung involvement. The IgM level on 15th-16th days after symptoms onset was significantly associated with the hazard of death even after adjusting for all other factors (adjusted HR (95%CI):1.28(1.014_1.63), p=0.03), whereas IgG was not (p>0.05). The survival probability among patients with IgM level ≥8.67 RU/ml (34.2%) was significantly lower than those with IgM level <8.67 RU/ml (99.5%, p=0.0001). Conclusions: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgM antibody was significantly associated with the disease severity and risk of death in unvaccinated patients infected with coronavirus Delta variant. However, further large-scale investigations on diverse infected populations are required to precisely determine the diagnostic/prognostic value of these antibodies.

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