"Because people don't know what it is, they don't really know it exists": a qualitative study of postgraduate medical educators' perceptions of dyscalculia.

BACKGROUND: Dyscalculia is defined as a specific learning difference or neurodiversity. Despite a move within postgraduate medical education (PGME) towards promoting inclusivity and addressing differential attainment, dyscalculia remains an unexplored area. METHODS: Using an interpretivist, constructivist, qualitative methodology, this scoping study explores PGME educators' attitudes, understanding and perceived challenges of supporting doctors in training (DiT) with dyscalculia. Through purposive sampling, semi-structured interviews and reflexive thematic analysis, the stories of ten Wales-based PGME educators were explored. RESULTS: Multiple themes emerged relating to lack of educator knowledge, experience and identification of learners with dyscalculia. Participants' roles as educators and clinicians were inextricably linked, with PGME seen as deeply embedded in social interactions. Overall, a positive attitude towards doctors with dyscalculia underpinned the strongly DiT-centred approach to supporting learning, tempered by uncertainty over potential patient safety-related risks. Perceiving themselves as learners, educators saw the educator-learner relationship as a major learning route given the lack of dyscalculia training available, with experience leading to confidence. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, educators perceived a need for greater dyscalculia awareness, understanding and knowledge, pre-emptive training and evidence-based, feasible guidance introduction. Although methodological limitations are inherent, this study constructs novel, detailed understanding from educators relating to dyscalculia in PGME, providing a basis for future research.

The effect of frailty on mortality and hospital admission in patients with benign pleural disease in Wales: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Pleural disease is common, representing 5% of the acute medical workload, and its incidence is rising, partly due to the ageing population. Frailty is an important feature and little is known about disease progression in patients with frailty and pleural disease. We aimed to examine the effect of frailty on mortality and other relevant outcomes in patients diagnosed with pleural disease. METHODS: In this cohort study in Wales, the national Secure Anonymised Information Linkage databank was used to identify a cohort of individuals diagnosed with non-malignant pleural disease between Jan 1, 2005, and March 1, 2023, who were not known to have left Wales. Frailty was assessed at diagnosis of pleural disease using an electronic Frailty Index. The primary outcome was time from diagnosis to all-cause mortality for all patients. Data were analysed using multilevel mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for the prespecified covariates of age, sex, Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation quintile, smoking status, comorbidity, and subtype of pleural disease. FINDINGS: 54 566 individuals were included in the final sample (median age 66 years [IQR 47-77]; 26 477 [48·5%] were female and 28 089 [51·5%] were male). By the end of the study period, 25 698 (47·1%) participants had died, with a median follow-up of 1·0 years (IQR 0·2-3·6). There was an association between frailty and all-cause mortality, which increased as frailty worsened. Compared with fit individuals, there was increasing mortality for those with mild frailty (adjusted hazard ratio 1·11 [95% CI 1·08-1·15]; p<0·0001), moderate frailty (1·25 [1·20-1·31]; p<0·0001), and severe frailty (1·36 [1·28-1·44]; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Independent of age and comorbidities, frailty status at diagnosis of pleural disease appeared to be useful as a prognostic indicator. Patients with moderate or severe frailty had a rapid decline in health. Future patients should be assessed for frailty at the time of diagnosis of pleural disease and might benefit from optimised care and advance care planning. FUNDING: Cardiff University's Wellcome Trust iTPA funding award.

Job satisfaction and intent to stay in neonatal nursing in England and Wales: a study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Nursing shortages are an ongoing concern for neonatal units, with many struggling to meet recommended nurse to patient ratios. Workforce data underlines the high proportion of neonatal nurses nearing retirement and a reduced number of nurses joining the profession. In order to recommend strategies to increase recruitment and retention to neonatal nursing, we need to understand the current challenges nurses are facing within the profession. The aim of this study is to investigate current job satisfaction, burnout, and intent to stay in neonatal nursing in England and Wales. METHODS: This study has two parts: (1) a systematic review exploring job satisfaction, burnout and intent to stay in neonatal nursing, and any previous interventions undertaken to enhance nurse retention, (2) an online survey of neonatal nurses in England and Wales exploring job satisfaction, burnout and intent to stay in neonatal nursing. We will measure job satisfaction using the McCloskey Mueller Satisfaction Scale (MMSS), burnout using the Copenhagen Burnout Inventory (CBI) and the Nurse Retention Index (NRI) will be used to measure intent to stay. All nurses working in neonatal units in England and Wales will be eligible to participate in the nursing survey. DISCUSSION: Retention of neonatal nurses is a significant issue affecting neonatal units across England and Wales, which can impact the delivery of safe patient care. Exploring job satisfaction and intent to stay will enable the understanding of challenges being faced and how best to support neonatal nurses. Identifying localised initiatives for the geographical areas most at risk of nurses leaving would help to improve nurse retention.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Influenza Hospital Admissions and Deaths in Wales: Descriptive National Time Series Analysis.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing implementation of control measures caused widespread societal disruption. These disruptions may also have affected community transmission and seasonal circulation patterns of endemic respiratory viruses. Objective: We aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19-related disruption on influenza-related emergency hospital admissions and deaths in Wales in the first 2 years of the pandemic. Methods: A descriptive analysis of influenza activity was conducted using anonymized pathology, hospitalization, and mortality data from the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales. The annual incidence of emergency hospitalizations and deaths with influenza-specific diagnosis codes between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2021, was estimated. Case definitions of emergency hospitalization and death required laboratory confirmation with a polymerase chain reaction test. Trends of admissions and deaths were analyzed monthly and yearly. We conducted 2 sensitivity analyses by extending case definitions to include acute respiratory illnesses with a positive influenza test and by limiting admissions to those with influenza as the primary diagnosis. We also examined yearly influenza testing trends to understand changes in testing behavior during the pandemic. Results: We studied a population of 3,235,883 Welsh residents in 2020 with a median age of 42.5 (IQR 22.9-61.0) years. Influenza testing in Wales increased notably in the last 2 months of 2020, and particularly in 2021 to 39,720 per 100,000 people, compared to the prepandemic levels (1343 in 2019). The percentage of influenza admissions matched to an influenza polymerase chain reaction test increased from 74.8% (1890/2526) in 2019 to 85.2% (98/115) in 2021. However, admissions with a positive test per 100,000 population decreased from 17.0 in 2019 to 2.7 and 0.6 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Similarly, deaths due to influenza with a positive influenza test per 100,000 population decreased from 0.4 in 2019 to 0.0 in 2020 and 2021. Sensitivity analyses showed similar patterns of decreasing influenza admissions and deaths in the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: Nonpharmaceutical interventions to control COVID-19 were associated with a substantial reduction in the transmission of the influenza virus, with associated substantial reductions in hospital cases and deaths observed. Beyond the pandemic context, consideration should be given to the role of nonpharmaceutical community-driven interventions to reduce the burden of influenza.

Exploring ethnicity dynamics in Wales: a longitudinal population-scale linked data study and development of a harmonised ethnicity spine.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to create a national ethnicity spine based on all available ethnicity records in linkable anonymised electronic health record and administrative data sources. DESIGN: A longitudinal study using anonymised individual-level population-scale ethnicity data from 26 data sources available within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank. SETTING: The national ethnicity spine is created based on longitudinal national data for the population of Wales-UK over 22 years (between 2000 and 2021). PROCEDURE AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 46 million ethnicity records for 4 297 694 individuals have been extracted, harmonised, deduplicated and made available within a longitudinal research ready data asset. OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Comparing the distribution of ethnicity records over time for four different selection approaches (latest, mode, weighted mode and composite) across age bands, sex, deprivation quintiles, health board and residential location and (2) distribution and completeness of records against the ONS census 2011. RESULTS: The distribution of the dominant group (white) is minimally affected based on the four different selection approaches. Across all other ethnic group categorisations, the mixed group was most susceptible to variation in distribution depending on the selection approach used and varied from a 0.6% prevalence across the latest and mode approach to a 1.1% prevalence for the weighted mode, compared with the 3.1% prevalence for the composite approach. Substantial alignment was observed with ONS 2011 census with the Latest group method (kappa=0.68, 95% CI (0.67 to 0.71)) across all subgroups. The record completeness rate was over 95% in 2021. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our development of the population-scale ethnicity spine provides robust ethnicity measures for healthcare research in Wales and a template which can easily be deployed in other trusted research environments in the UK and beyond.

MulTI-domain self-management in older People wiTh OstEoarthritis and multi-morbidities: protocol for the TIPTOE randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Four out of five people living with osteoarthritis (OA) also suffer with at least one other long-term health condition. The complex interaction between OA and multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs) can result in difficulties with self-care, restricted mobility, pain, anxiety, depression and reduced quality of life. The aim of the MulTI-domain Self-management in Older People wiTh OstEoarthritis and Multi-Morbidities (TIPTOE) trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of the Living Well self-management support intervention, co-designed with people living with OA, integrated into usual care, in comparison to usual care alone. METHODS: TIPTOE is a multi-centre, two-arm, individually randomised controlled trial where 824 individuals over 65 years old with knee and/or hip joint pain from their OA affected joint and at least one other long-term health condition will be randomised to receive either the Living Well Self-Management support intervention or usual care. Eligible participants can self-refer onto the trial via a website or be referred via NHS services across Wales and England. Those randomised to receive the Living Well support intervention will be offered up to six one-to-one coaching sessions with a TIPTOE-trained healthcare practitioner and a co-designed book. Participants will be encouraged to nominate a support person to assist them throughout the study. All participants will complete a series of self-reported outcome measures at baseline and 6- and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome is symptoms and quality of life as assessed by the Musculoskeletal Health Questionnaire (MSK-HQ). Routine data will be used to evaluate health resource use. A mixed methods process evaluation will be conducted alongside the trial to inform future implementation should the TIPTOE intervention be found both clinically and cost-effective. An embedded 'Study Within A Project' (SWAP) will explore and address barriers to the inclusion of under-served patient groups (e.g. oldest old, low socioeconomic groups, ethnic groups). DISCUSSION: TIPTOE will evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a co-designed, living well personalised self-management support intervention for older individuals with knee and/or hip OA and MLTCs. The trial has been designed to maximise inclusivity and access. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 16024745 . Registered on October 16, 2023.

Potential drivers of changing ecological conditions in English and Welsh rivers since 1990.

River invertebrate communities across Europe have been changing in response to variations in water quality over recent decades, but the underlying drivers are difficult to identify because of the complex stressors and environmental heterogeneity involved. Here, using data from ∼4000 locations across England and Wales, collected over 29 years, we use three approaches to help resolve the drivers of spatiotemporal variation in the face of this complexity: i) mapping changes in invertebrate richness and community composition; ii) structural equation modelling (SEM) to distinguish land cover, water quality and climatic influences; and iii) geographically weighted regression (GWR) to identify how the apparent relationships between invertebrate communities and abiotic variables change across the area. Mapping confirmed widespread increases in richness and the proportion of pollution-sensitive taxa across much of England and Wales. It also revealed regions where pollution-sensitive taxa or overall richness declined, the former primarily in the uplands. SEMs confirmed strong increases in average biochemical oxygen demand and nutrient concentrations related to urban and agricultural land cover, but only a minority of land cover's effect upon invertebrate communities was explained by average water chemistry, highlighting potential factors such as episodic extremes or emerging contaminants. GWR identified strong geographical variation in estimated relationships between macroinvertebrate communities and environmental variables, with evidence that the estimated negative impacts of nutrients and water temperature were increasing through time. Overall the results are consistent with widespread biological recovery of Britain's rivers from past gross organic pollution, whilst highlighting declines in some of the most diverse and least impacted streams. Modelling points to a complex and changing set of drivers, highlighting the multifaceted impacts of catchment land cover and the evolving role of different stressors, with the relationship to gross organic pollution weakening, whilst estimated nutrient and warming effects strengthened.

Clinical Informatics in Pre-Registration Nurse Education.

This case study explores the pivotal role Clinical Informaticians in Nursing and Midwifery in Wales can have within pre-registration education. It underscores the necessity for nurses and midwives to adapt to digital transformations in healthcare delivery and discusses the potential digital career paths within the often-misunderstood domain of digital nursing. The initiative aimed to enhance awareness at both national and local levels, collaborating with educational institutions to incorporate digital education into pre-registration nursing programs. In partnership with the University of South Wales, sessions were tailored to the existing curriculum to highlight digital career opportunities and foster digital understanding among future nurses. The session design was aligned with course guidelines to emphasize the role of digital technology in quality improvement and leadership. Evaluations using interactive tools facilitated continuous improvement and provided insights, shaping the future of digital integration in nursing education.

Seldom Heard Voices - Empowering Maternity Services in Wales.

Seldom-heard groups refer to individuals whose voices are often marginalised, underrepresented, or not adequately considered in the digital design process. This case study aims to demonstrate the benefits of taking a user-centred design (UCD) approach to implementing a digital solution for Maternity Services in Wales. Semi-structured interviews were conducted to understand the needs of women and birthing people from seldom-heard groups. The research insights were used to inform the design of a service pattern that could be delivered before and after each maternity appointment. The research shows opportunities to improve the experience for women and birthing people and reduce their anxieties by creating a reliable, accessible digital maternity record that will empower them to make evidence-based decisions. By taking a user-centred design approach and centering the unique needs of those facing the greatest health disparities, Maternity Services' digital transformation aims to positively impact the health and well-being of women and birthing people in Wales.

The National Transformation of Nursing Documentation in Wales.

In response to findings indicating poor standardisation and quality in nursing documentation, NHS Wales embarked on a transformative journey with the National Electronic Nursing Documentation Programme in 2014. Evolving into the Welsh Nursing Care Record (WNCR) by 2019, this initiative sought to streamline practices and enhance accuracy, compliance, and efficiency through a standardised digital platform. The case study explores the comprehensive project design, emphasising evidence-based practices, governance processes and the introduction of National Nursing Informatics roles. Accomplished from April 2021 to September 2023, the WNCR implementation achieved a 79% roll out across eligible wards, marked by strategic investments, robust training, and phased deployment. Evaluations to date show positive impacts on key performance indicators, exemplified by a 9-minute time saving per patient. Lessons learned noted the significance of user engagement, cultural transformation, and ongoing staff development, paving the way for future strategies including nationwide implementation, benefits realisation, and data visualisation initiatives.

Calls for the Welsh Government to back reform of veterinary legislation.

At our annual Welsh dinner, BVA President Anna Judson called on the Welsh Government to support urgent reform of the Veterinary Surgeons Act and prioritise the delivery of key animal welfare legislation.

A prospective longitudinal study of risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm.

The aim of this study was to identify risk factors for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) from the largest Welsh screening cohort to date. Patients were recruited from 1993 (to 2015) as part of the South East Wales AAA screening programme through general practitioners. Demographic data and risk factors were collected by means of a self-report questionnaire. Statistical tests were performed to determine whether associations could be observed between AAA and potential risk factors. Odds ratios (OR) were also calculated for each of the risk factors identified. A total of 6879 patients were included in the study. Two hundred and seventy-five patients (4.0%) presented with AAA, of which 16% were female and 84% were male. Patients with AAA were older than the (no AAA) control group (p < 0.0001). The following risk factors were identified for AAA: family history of AAA (p < 0.0001); history of vascular surgery (p < 0.0001), cerebrovascular accident (p < 0.0001), coronary heart disease (p < 0.0001), diabetes (p < 0.0001), medication (p = 0.0018), claudication (p < 0.0001), smoking history (p = 0.0001) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (p = 0.0007). AAA is associated with classical vascular risk factors, in addition to other less-well-documented risk factors including previous vascular surgery. These findings have practical implications with the potential to improve future clinical screening of patients in order to reduce AAA mortality.

Trends in organ donation in England, Scotland and Wales in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and 'opt-out' legislation.

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, England implemented soft 'opt-out' or 'deemed consent' for deceased donation with the intention of raising consent rates. However, this coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, making it difficult to assess the early impact of the law change. Wales and Scotland changed their organ donation legislation to implement soft opt-out systems in 2015 and 2021 respectively. This study provides a descriptive analysis of changes in consent and transplant rates for deceased organ donation in England, Scotland and Wales. METHODS: Logistic regression and descriptive trend analysis were employed to assess the probability of a patient who died in critical care becoming a donor, and to report consent rates using data, respectively, from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) in England from 1 April 2014 to 30 September 2021, and from the Potential Donor Audit for England, Scotland and Wales from April 2010 to June 2023. RESULTS: The number of eligible donors in April-June 2020 were 56.5%, 59.3% and 57.6% lower in England, Scotland and Wales relative to April-June 2019 (pre-pandemic). By April-June 2023, the number of eligible donors had recovered to 87.4%, 64.2% and 110.3%, respectively, of their levels in 2019. The consent rate in England, Scotland and Wales reduced from 68.3%, 63.0% and 63.6% in April-June 2019 to 63.2%, 60.5% and 56.3% in April-June 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While the UK organ donation system shows signs of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of eligible potential donors and consent rates remain below their pre-pandemic levels.

Trends in educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality and their impact on changes in general mortality inequalities: evidence from England and Wales, Finland, and Italy (Turin).

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic mortality inequalities are persistent in Europe but have been changing over time. Smoking is a known contributor to inequality levels, but knowledge about its impact on time trends in inequalities is sparse. METHODS: We studied trends in educational inequalities in smoking-attributable mortality (SAM) and assessed their impact on general mortality inequality trends in England and Wales (E&W), Finland, and Italy (Turin) from 1972 to 2017. We used yearly individually linked all-cause and lung cancer mortality data by educational level and sex for individuals aged 30 and older. SAM was indirectly estimated using the Preston-Glei-Wilmoth method. We calculated the slope index of inequality (SII) and performed segmented regression on SIIs for all-cause, smoking and non-SAM to identify phases in inequality trends. The impact of SAM on all-cause mortality inequality trends was estimated by comparing changes in SII for all-cause with non-SAM. RESULTS: Inequalities in SAM generally declined among males and increased among females, except in Italy. Among males in E&W and Finland, SAM contributed 93% and 76% to declining absolute all-cause mortality inequalities, but this contribution varied over time. Among males in Italy, SAM drove the 1976-1992 increase in all-cause mortality inequalities. Among females in Finland, increasing inequalities in SAM hampered larger declines in mortality inequalities. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that differing education-specific SAM trends by country and sex result in different inequality trends, and consequent contributions of SAM on educational mortality inequalities. The following decades of the smoking epidemic could increase educational mortality inequalities among Finnish and Italian women.

Retrospective Cohort Study of Additional Procedures and Transplant-Free Survival for Patients With Functionally Single Ventricle Disease Undergoing Staged Palliation in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Reinterventions may influence the outcomes of children with functionally single-ventricle (f-SV) congenital heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of children starting treatment for f-SV between 2000 and 2018 in England, using the national procedure registry. Patients were categorized based on whether they survived free of transplant beyond 1 year of age. Among patients who had transplant-free survival beyond 1 year of age, we explored the relationship between reinterventions in infancy and the outcomes of survival and Fontan completion, adjusting for complexity. Of 3307 patients with f-SV, 909 (27.5%), had no follow-up beyond 1 year of age, among whom 323 (35.3%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. A total of 2398 (72.5%) patients with f-SV had transplant-free survival beyond 1 year of age, among whom 756 (31.5%) had ≥1 reinterventions in infancy. The 5-year transplant-free survival and cumulative incidence of Fontan, among those who survived infancy, were 93.4% (95% CI, 92.4%-94.4%) and 79.3% (95% CI, 77.4%-81.2%), respectively. Both survival and Fontan completion were similar for those with a single reintervention and those who had no reinterventions. Patients who had >1 additional surgery (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.93 [95% CI, 1.87-8.27] P<0.001) had higher adjusted risk of mortality. Patients who had >1 additional interventional catheter (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.52-0.96] P=0.03) had a lower likelihood of achieving Fontan. CONCLUSIONS: Among children with f-SV, the occurrence of >1 reintervention in the first year of life, especially surgical reinterventions, was associated with poorer prognosis later in childhood.

Drivers of epidemic dynamics in real time from daily digital COVID-19 measurements.

Understanding the drivers of respiratory pathogen spread is challenging, particularly in a timely manner during an ongoing epidemic. In this work, we present insights that we obtained using daily data from the National Health Service COVID-19 app for England and Wales and that we shared with health authorities in almost real time. Our indicator of the reproduction number R(t) was available days earlier than other estimates, with an innovative capability to decompose R(t) into contact rates and probabilities of infection. When Omicron arrived, the main epidemic driver switched from contacts to transmissibility. We separated contacts and transmissions by day of exposure and setting and found pronounced variability over days of the week and during Christmas holidays and events. For example, during the Euro football tournament in 2021, days with England matches showed sharp spikes in exposures and transmissibility. Digital contact-tracing technologies can help control epidemics not only by directly preventing transmissions but also by enabling rapid analysis at scale and with unprecedented resolution.