Weather deviations linked to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States.

As the world's climate continues to change, human populations are exposed to increasingly severe and extreme weather conditions that can promote migration. Here, we examine how extreme weather influences the likelihood of undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States. We used data from 48,313 individuals observed between 1992 and 2018 in 84 Mexican agricultural communities. While controlling for regional and temporal confounding factors, we related individual decisions to migrate to the United States without documents and subsequently return to Mexico with lagged weather deviations from the historical norm during the corn-growing season (May to August). Undocumented migration was most likely from areas experiencing extreme drought, and migrants were less likely to return to their communities of origin when extreme weather persisted. These findings establish the role of weather shocks in undocumented Mexican migration to, and eventual settlement in, the United States. The findings also suggest that extreme weather conditions, which are likely to increase with climate change, promote clandestine mobility across borders and, thus, expose migrants to risks associated with crossing dangerous terrain and relying upon smugglers.

Indigenous-led struggles for health justice in the context of the climate emergency: insights from Guatemala.

This practice paper reflects on an ongoing Participatory Action Research project that combines community-engaged methods, national data analysis and advocacy to support community-based emergency response to extreme weather events in 16 Indigenous communities in Alta Verapaz province, Guatemala. Our work points to a worrying predicament experienced in climate-affected areas, where some populations face a dangerous confluence of climate vulnerability, social exclusion and state abandonment that imperils human health. Indigenous communities in Alta Verapaz are often particularly vulnerable to health impacts from climate-driven extreme weather events, a reality compounded by the historical and contemporary ways the state marginalises them. We share work from our project activities to shed light on these interconnected problems and how Indigenous communities in Alta Verapaz, especially Maya Q'eqchi' communities, are using creative strategies to confront them. Technical solutions are important but insufficient responses. Community-led activism to push for state support to address extreme weather events, as has been practised in struggles for health rights, can provide vital tools for addressing the increasing challenges these populations face in the context of the climate crisis.

Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events.

Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. Although 21st-century climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical and projected EWEs across the region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., intensity, duration, and frequency) of heat waves, cyclones, droughts, and rainfall and compared trends in PAs with trends in unprotected lands. From the early 21st century onward, exposure to EWEs increased across the region, and PAs were predicted to be more exposed to climate extremes than unprotected areas (as shown by autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for heat waves, which were projected to have a significantly higher average (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01) intensity and duration, and tropical cyclones, which affected PAs more severely in carbon-intensive scenarios. PAs were also predicted to be significantly less exposed to droughts and heavy rainfall than unprotected areas (tested by Wilcoxon tests at p < 0.01). However, droughts that could threaten connectivity between PAs are increasingly common in this region. We estimated that approximately 65% of the study area will experience at least one drought episode that is more intense and longer lasting than previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight that new conservation strategies adapted to threats associated with EWEs need to be tailored and implemented promptly. Unless urgent action is taken, significant damage may be inflicted on the unique biodiversity of the region.

Ciclones, olas de calor, sequías y lluvias intensas son eventos comunes en Centroamérica y el Caribe, cuya frecuencia, intensidad y duración se espera aumente durante el siglo XXI a causa del cambio climático. Sin embargo, en la actualidad, se desconoce cuál será la incidencia de estos eventos meteorológicos extremos (EME) dentro de las áreas protegidas. En este estudio examinamos la exposición histórica y futura a los extremos climáticos y comparamos el grado de exposición dentro y fuera de las áreas protegidas de toda la región por medio de 32 métricas que describen distintas dimensiones (intensidad, duración y frecuencia) de las olas de calor, los ciclones, las sequías y las precipitaciones. Los resultados indican que a medida que aumente el número de EME, las áreas protegidas estarán más expuestas a los extremos climáticos que las áreas no protegidas. Esto es especialmente cierto en el caso de las olas de calor, que, según las proyecciones, tendrán una intensidad y una duración medias significativamente mayores, y de los ciclones tropicales, que afectarán más gravemente a las zonas protegidas en los escenarios intensivos en carbono. Nuestros resultados también indican que las zonas protegidas estarán significativamente menos expuestas a sequías o lluvias torrenciales que las zonas no protegidas. Sin embargo, las sequías que podrían amenazar la conectividad entre áreas protegidas son cada vez más frecuentes en esta región. Se estima que aproximadamente el 65% del área de estudio experimentará al menos un episodio de sequía más intenso y duradero que las sequías anteriores. En conjunto, nuestros resultados ponen de relieve la necesidad de diseñar y aplicar con prontitud nuevas estrategias de conservación adaptadas a las amenazas asociadas a los EWE. A menos que se tomen medidas urgentes, la biodiversidad única de la región podría sufrir daños considerables.

Reflections on the impact and response to the Peruvian 2017 Coastal El Niño event: Looking to the past to prepare for the future.

Climate-related phenomena in Peru have been slowly but continuously changing in recent years beyond historical variability. These include sea surface temperature increases, irregular precipitation patterns and reduction of glacier-covered areas. In addition, climate scenarios show amplification in rainfall variability related to the warmer conditions associated with El Niño events. Extreme weather can affect human health, increase shocks and stresses to the health systems, and cause large economic losses. In this article, we study the characteristics of El Niño events in Peru, its health and economic impacts and we discuss government preparedness for this kind of event, identify gaps in response, and provide evidence to inform adequate planning for future events and mitigating impacts on highly vulnerable regions and populations. This is the first case study to review the impact of a Coastal El Niño event on Peru's economy, public health, and governance. The 2017 event was the third strongest El Niño event according to literature, in terms of precipitation and river flooding and caused important economic losses and health impacts. At a national level, these findings expose a need for careful consideration of the potential limitations of policies linked to disaster prevention and preparedness when dealing with El Niño events. El Niño-related policies should be based on local-level risk analysis and efficient preparedness measures in the face of emergencies.

Vitamin D in pregnant women from extreme areas of latitude: review from midwifery / Vitamina D en gestantes en zonas extremas: revisión desde la matronería

Insufficient vitamin D levels occur in 88.1% of the worlds population, which constitutes a global public health problem. We analyzed vitamin D deficiency and suggested vitamin D supplementation in the perinatal health of pregnant women living in geographical areas higher than 40° south-north latitude according to reviews from the last three decades and identifying midwives role. The methodology used was a qualitative systematic review of full text studies, conducted in geographical areas higher than 40°N and 40°S. Descriptors such as: "deficiency", "vitamin D", "pregnancy", "causes", "perinatal outcomes" and "supplementation", and their respective descriptors in Spanish. The matrices were tabulated according to the modified PRISMA. Eight studies were obtained in English from the Northern Hemisphere only, mostly with good quality evidence and related to the role of midwifing according to the expert round. The results showed risks such as: origin of the pregnant woman, ethnicity, low sun exposure, obesity, socioeconomic status, and perinatal risks. No studies were found in pregnant women from the Southern Hemisphere or related to the role of the midwife in this area. In conclusion, midwifery should considerer the social determinants of vitamin D deficiency in pregnant women, especially those in extreme southern areas where incorporation of supplementation are suggested as a public policy.

Los niveles insuficientes de vitamina D se dan en el 88,1% de la población mundial, lo que constituye un problema de salud pública global. Se analizó la deficiencia y la sugerencia de suplementación de vitamina D en la salud perinatal de las gestantes residentes en áreas geográficas de latitud 40° sur-norte según revisiones de las últimas tres décadas identificando el rol de la matrona. La metodología utilizada fue una revisión sistemática cualitativa de estudios a texto completo, realizados en áreas geográficas mayores al paralelo 40°N y 40°S. Descriptores como: "deficiencia", "vitamina D", "embarazo", "causas", "resultados perinatales" y "suplementación", y sus respectivos descriptores en español. Las matrices se tabularon según el PRISMA modificado. Se obtuvo ocho estudios en inglés pertenecientes sólo al hemisferio norte, la mayoría con buena calidad de evidencia. Los resultados arrojaron factores como origen de la embarazada, etnia, baja exposición al sol, obesidad, nivel socioeconómico y riesgos perinatales. No se encontraron estudios en mujeres embarazadas del hemisferio sur o relacionados con el papel de la matrona. En conclusión, desde el ejercicio de la matronería se deben considerar los determinantes sociales de las mujeres embarazadas especialmente de zonas extremas del sur donde se sugiere investigación experimental e incorporación de la suplementación como política pública.

Documento Técnico: Plan de Contingencia del Ministerio de Salud frente a la temporada de bajas temperaturas, 2023 / Technical Document: Contingency Plan of the Ministry of Health for the low temperature season, 2023

El documento contiene las acciones para fortalecer la organización del MINSA para enfrentar los daños a la salud por la temporada de bajas temperaturas, articulando intervenciones del nivel nacional con el nivel regional y local

Cross-Evaluation of Reflectivity from NEXRAD and Global Precipitation Mission during Extreme Weather Events.

During extreme events such as tropical cyclones, the precision of sensors used to sample the meteorological data is vital to feed weather and climate models for storm path forecasting, quantitative precipitation estimation, and other atmospheric parameters. For this reason, periodic data comparison between several sensors used to monitor these phenomena such as ground-based and satellite instruments, must maintain a high degree of correlation in order to issue alerts with an accuracy that allows for timely decision making. This study presents a cross-evaluation of the radar reflectivity from the dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) and the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) ground-based instrument located in the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico, USA, to determine the correlation degree between these two sensors' measurements during extreme weather events and normal precipitation events during 2015-2019. GPM at Ku-band and Ka-band and NEXRAD at S-band overlapping scanning regions data of normal precipitation events during 2015-2019, and the spiral rain bands of four extreme weather events, Irma (Category 5 Hurricane), Beryl (Tropical Storm), Dorian (Category 1 hurricane), and Karen (Tropical Storm), were processed using the GPM Ground Validation System (GVS). In both cases, data were classified and analyzed statistically, paying particular attention to variables such as elevation angle mode and precipitation type (stratiform and convective). Given that ground-based radar (GR) has better spatial and temporal resolution, the NEXRAD was used as ground-truth. The results revealed that the correlation coefficient between the data of both instruments during the analyzed extreme weather events was moderate to low; for normal precipitation events, the correlation is lower than that of studies that compared GPM and NEXRAD reflectivity located in other regions of the USA. Only Tropical Storm Karen obtained similar results to other comparative studies in terms of the correlation coefficient. Furthermore, the GR elevation angle and precipitation type have a substantial impact on how well the rain reflectivity correlates between the two sensors. It was found that the Ku-band channel possesses the least bias and variability when compared to the NEXRAD instrument's reflectivity and should therefore be considered more reliable for future tropical storm tracking and tropical region precipitation estimates in regions with no NEXRAD coverage.

Análisis de eventos fríos y cálidos por medio de datos de buceo: un enfoque de ciencia ciudadana en el Golfo de Papagayo, Costa Rica / Analysis of warm and cool events in the Gulf of Papagayo through diving data: A Citizen Science approach

Introduction: In January 2011 and as a Citizen Science initiative, the owners of the Deep Blue Diving Shop in Playa del Coco, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, began to collect daily temperature data in the seawater column during their diving activities, to inform tourists before traveling to Costa Rica and help them properly select their diving equipment and thus maximize the enjoyment of the experience in the Gulf of Papagayo. This data collection remained constant until January 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Objective: Identify cold and warm events of the sub-surface temperature of the sea in the Gulf of Papagayo, Guanacaste, Costa Rica and their relationship with known sources of climate variability as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and synoptic systems such as incursions of cold fronts in the Caribbean Sea. Methods: Sea Subsurface Temperature data corresponding to the lowest temperature of the seawater column were used, at an approximate depth of 25-35m. Observations were made daily, from 01/01/2011 to 01/31/2020. Results: The mean temperature was 25.7 °C. Cooler temperatures were observed in February-March, below 22.5 °C with a secondary minimum in July. There were two peaks in May and August with temperatures above 27.4 °C. The drops during cold events reached 16-17 °C. All cold events were associated with the passage of cold fronts through the Caribbean Sea, due to reinforcement in the intensity of the trade winds, with a zonal component from the East, which causes seasonal upwelling. The warm events presented temperatures at their maximum of 30-31 °C. The latter events were associated with the development and maturity of warm El Niño-type ENSO events. ENSO is an important modulator of sea temperature variability in the Gulf of Papagayo, since El Niño events are related to positive anomalies in sea temperature in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Conclusions: The Citizen Science initiative presented in this study proved to be very useful for monitoring sea temperature in the Gulf of Papagayo. The results of this study indicate that Dive Masters can provide data on sea temperature of sufficient quality and with high temporal resolution. Divers can profitably support monitoring and Citizen Science can contribute positively to social well-being by influencing the questions that are being addressed and by giving people a voice in local environmental decision-making. The information generated in this study returns to the tour operators and enhance the understanding of the variability observed in the data collected by them, a knowledge that is later transmitted to their clients to improve their experience.

Introducción: En el año 2011 y como una iniciativa de Ciencia Ciudadana, los propietarios de la tienda Deep Blue Diving Shop en Playa del Coco, Guanacaste, Costa Rica, iniciaron a recolectar diariamente los datos de temperatura en la columna de agua de mar durante sus actividades de buceo, como respuesta a la necesidad de informar a los turistas antes de viajar a Costa Rica para la selección del equipo correcto de SCUBA y así maximizar su experiencia en el Golfo de Papagayo. Esta recolección de datos se mantuvo constante hasta enero de 2020 por la pandemia del COVID-19. Objetivo: Identificar eventos fríos y cálidos de la temperatura sub-superficial del mar en el Golfo de Papagayo, Guanacaste, Costa Rica y su relación con fuentes de variabilidad climática conocidas como El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) y sistemas sinópticos como las incursiones de frentes fríos en el Mar Caribe. Métodos: Se utilizaron datos de Temperatura Subsuperficial del Mar correspondientes a la temperatura más baja de la columna del agua de mar, a una profundidad aproximada de 25-35 m. Las observaciones se realizaron con una frecuencia diaria del 01/01/2011 al 31/01/2020. Resultados: La iniciativa de Ciencia Ciudadana presentada en este estudio mostró ser muy útil para el monitoreo y caracterización de la temperatura del mar en el Golfo de Papagayo. La temperatura media fue de 25.7 °C. Se observaron temperaturas más frías en febrero-marzo, por debajo de 22.5 °C con un mínimo secundario en julio. Hubo dos máximos en mayo y agosto con temperaturas superiores a 27.4 °C. Los descensos durante los eventos fríos alcanzaros los 16-17 °C. Todos los eventos fríos estuvieron asociados al paso de frentes fríos por el Mar Caribe, debido a reforzamientos en intensidad del viento alisio, con componente zonal del este, que provoca surgencia estacional. Los eventos cálidos presentaron temperaturas en sus máximos de 30-31 °C. Los eventos cálidos estuvieron asociados al desarrollo y madurez de los eventos cálidos del ENOS tipo El Niño. El ENOS es un modulador importante de la variabilidad de la temperatura del mar en el Golfo de Papagayo, ya que los eventos El Niño están relacionados con anomalías positivas de la temperatura del mar en el Pacífico Tropical del Este. Conclusiones: La iniciativa de Ciencia Ciudadana presentada en este estudio resultó ser muy útil para monitorear la temperatura del mar en el Golfo de Papagayo. Los resultados de este estudio indican que los guías de buceo pueden aportar datos sobre la temperatura del mar de suficiente calidad y con alta resolución temporal. Los buzos pueden apoyar de manera rentable el monitoreo y la Ciencia Ciudadana puede contribuir positivamente al bienestar social al influir en las preguntas que se están abordando y al dar voz a las personas en la toma de decisiones ambientales locales. La información generada en este estudio regresa a los operadores de turismo y mejora la comprensión de la variabilidad observada en los datos recolectados por ellos, conocimiento que luego es transmitido a sus clientes para mejorar su experiencia.