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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 803: 150063, 2022 Jan 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34525706

RESUMO

Coastal lagoon sediments provide continuous and high-resolution records of the activity of past typhoons. In this study, multiple proxies were analyzed with a core taken from Pinqing Lagoon located on the northeast margin of the South China Sea. Based on 210Pb dating, grain sizes and other geophysical/geochemical analyses, a total of seven typhoon-induced layers covering the past ~170 years were identified and compared with observational and historical records of typhoons. The layers were characterized by a higher sand fraction, lower loss-on-ignition, decreased magnetic susceptibility, and increased element ratios of Sr/Fe, Sr/Ba, Ca/Ti, and Ca/K. We found reduced sensitivity of the sedimentary response to typhoons due to the coastal geomorphological evolution, such as sand spit growth, which emphasizes the value of using a multiple-proxy approach. The typhoon activity revealed by both sedimentary proxies and observational/historical records in Shanwei was closely related to the variations of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and to sunspot activity, providing useful clues for reconstructing the long-term typhoon history in the lagoon in order to decipher the patterns and mechanisms of typhoons in South China.


Assuntos
Tempestades Ciclônicas , China , El Niño Oscilação Sul
2.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34769576

RESUMO

Soil erosion is a serious ecological problem in the fragile ecological environment of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Rainfall erosivity is one of the most important factors controlling soil erosion and is associated with the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). However, there is a lack of studies related to the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall erosivity on the TP as a whole. Additionally, the understanding of the general influence of ENSO on rainfall erosivity across the TP remains to be developed. In this study, long-term (1971-2020) daily precipitation data from 91 meteorological stations were selected to calculate rainfall erosivity. The analysis combines co-kriging interpolation, Sen's slope estimator, and the Mann-Kendall trend test to investigate the spatiotemporal patten of rainfall erosivity across the TP. The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) were chosen as ENSO phenomenon characterization indices, and the relationship between ENSO and rainfall erosivity was explored by employing a continuous wavelet transform. The results showed that an increasing trend in annual rainfall erosivity was detected on the TP from 1971 to 2020. The seasonal and monthly rainfall erosivity was highly uneven, with the summer erosivity accounting for 60.36%. The heterogeneous spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity was observed with an increasing trend from southeast to northwest. At the regional level, rainfall erosivity in the southeastern TP was mainly featured by a slow increase, while in the northwest was more destabilizing and mostly showed no significant trend. The rainfall erosivity on the whole TP was relatively high during non-ENSO periods and relatively low during El Niño/La Niña periods. It is worth noting that rainfall erosivity in the northwest TP appears to be more serious during the La Niña event. Furthermore, there were obvious resonance cycles between the rainfall erosivity and ENSO in different regions of the plateau, but the cycles had pronounced discrepancies in the occurrence time, direction of action and intensity. These findings contribute to providing references for soil erosion control on the TP and the formulation of future soil conservation strategies.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Solo , Estações do Ano , Análise Espacial , Tibet
3.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 5785, 2021 10 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34642319

RESUMO

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal component of global climate variability known to influence a host of social and economic outcomes, but its systematic effects on human health remain poorly understood. We estimate ENSO's association with child nutrition at global scale by combining variation in ENSO intensity from 1986-2018 with children's height and weight from 186 surveys conducted in 51 teleconnected countries, containing 48% of the world's under-5 population. Warmer El Niño conditions predict worse child undernutrition in most of the developing world, but better outcomes in the small number of areas where precipitation is positively affected by warmer ENSO. ENSO's contemporaneous effects on child weight loss are detectable years later as decreases in height. This relationship looks similar at both global and regional scale, and has not appreciably weakened over the last four decades. Results imply that almost 6 million additional children were underweight during the 2015 El Niño compared to a counterfactual of neutral ENSO conditions in 2015. This demonstrates a pathway through which human well-being remains subject to predictable climatic processes.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Criança , Humanos , Desnutrição , Temperatura
4.
Acta Trop ; 224: 106136, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34555353

RESUMO

Dengue virus (DENV) is an endemic disease in the hot and humid low-lands of Colombia. We characterize the association of monthly series of dengue cases with indices of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at the tropical Pacific and local climatic variables in Colombia during the period 2007-2017 at different temporal and spatial scales. For estimation purposes, we use lagged cross-correlations (Pearson test), cross-wavelet analysis (wavelet cross spectrum, and wavelet coherence), as well as a novel nonlinear causality method, PCMCI, that allows identifying common causal drivers and links among high dimensional simultaneous and time-lagged variables. Our results evidence the strong association of DENV cases in Colombia with ENSO indices and with local temperature and rainfall. El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon is related to an increase (decrease) of dengue cases nationally and in most regions and departments, with maximum correlations occurring at shorter time lags in the Pacific and Andes regions, closer to the Pacific Ocean. This association is mainly explained by the ENSO-driven increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall, especially in the Andes and Pacific regions. The influence of ENSO is not stationary, given the reduction of DENV cases since 2005, and that local climate variables vary in space and time, which prevents to extrapolate results from one region to another. The association between DENV and ENSO varies at national and regional scales when data are disaggregated by seasons, being stronger in DJF and weaker in SON. Overall, the Pacific and Andes regions control the relationship between dengue dynamics and ENSO at national scale. Cross-wavelet analysis indicates that the ENSO-DENV relation in Colombia exhibits a strong coherence in the 12 to 16-months frequency band, which implies the frequency locking between the annual cycle and the interannual (ENSO) timescales. Results of nonlinear causality metrics reveal the complex concomitant effects of ENSO and local climate variables, while offering new insights to develop early warning systems for DENV in Colombia.


Assuntos
Dengue , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estações do Ano , Temperatura
5.
Sci Total Environ ; 798: 149198, 2021 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34333430

RESUMO

The global climate patterns like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have impacts on surface water quality and groundwater recharge patterns. But the ENSO and IOD impacts on surface water-groundwater (SW-GW) interaction in terms of quality have not been studied. Therefore, the present study was conducted to delineate the impacts of ENSO and IOD on the SW-GW interaction process-induced groundwater quality of coastal aquifers of Sundarbans, by the application of isotopic signature, salinity content of groundwater and seawater in relation to rainfall variability. Study results revealed that the declining trend of rainfall potentially increases the seawater salinity. The rainfall pattern also positively correlates with the groundwater level (GWL) at a 5% level of significance observed from the wavelet analysis. The deficit in rainfall due to the El Niño is the possible reason for the declining GWL, which is giving rise to groundwater salinity. El Niño also affected the nearshore seawater salinity which was increased from 19 to 24 ppT. The study provides a surrogate understanding of the potential impact of El Niño in one of the most climatically vulnerable parts of the planet, while IOD impacts are not conclusive. In the scenario of depleted rainfall amount, groundwater abstraction practices need to be managed, otherwise, it could create a potential threat to the available drinking water resources in the present and future climate change scenarios.


Assuntos
Água Subterrânea , Rios , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Água do Mar , Água
6.
PLoS One ; 16(8): e0255304, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34379665

RESUMO

Coral reefs are increasingly affected by a combination of acute and chronic disturbances from climate change and local stressors. The coral reefs of the Republic of Kiribati's Gilbert Islands are exposed to frequent heat stress caused by central-Pacific type El Niño events, and may provide a glimpse into the future of coral reefs in other parts of the world, where the frequency of heat stress events will likely increase due to climate change. Reefs in the Gilbert Islands experienced a series of acute disturbances over the past fifteen years, including mass coral bleaching in 2004-2005 and 2009-2010, and an outbreak of the corallivorous sea star Acanthaster cf solaris, or Crown-of-Thorns (CoTs), in 2014. The local chronic pressures including nutrient loading, sedimentation and fishing vary within the island chain, with highest pressures on the reefs in urbanized South Tarawa Atoll. In this study, we examine how recovery from acute disturbances differs across a gradient of human influence in neighboring Tarawa and Abaiang Atolls from 2012 through 2018. Benthic cover and size frequency data suggests that local coral communities have adjusted to the heat stress via shifts in the community composition to more temperature-tolerant taxa and individuals. In densely populated South Tarawa, we document a phase shift to the weedy and less bleaching-sensitive coral Porites rus, which accounted for 81% of all coral cover by 2018. By contrast, in less populated Abaiang, coral communities remained comparatively more diverse (with higher percentages of Pocillopora and the octocoral Heliopora) after the disturbances, but reefs had lower overall hard coral cover (18%) and were dominated by turf algae (41%). The CoTs outbreak caused a decline in the cover and mean size of massive Porites, the only taxa that was a 'winner' of the coral bleaching events in Abaiang. Although there are signs of recovery, the long-term trajectory of the benthic communities in Abaiang is not yet clear. We suggest three scenarios: they may remain in their current state (dominated by turf algae), undergo a phase shift to dominance by the macroalgae Halimeda, or recover to dominance by thermally tolerant hard coral genera. These findings provide a rare glimpse at the future of coral reefs around the world and the ways they may be affected by climate change, which may allow scientists to better predict how other reefs will respond to increasing heat stress events across gradients of local human disturbance.


Assuntos
Recifes de Corais , Animais , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Estrelas-do-Mar
7.
Acta Trop ; 222: 106032, 2021 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34245685

RESUMO

Vector-borne diseases are some of the leading public health problems in the tropics, and their association with climatic anomalies is well known. The current study aimed to evaluate the trend of American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus, Amazonas-Brazil, and its relationship with climatic extremes (ENSO). The study was carried out using a series of secondary data from notifications on the occurrence of several American cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the municipality of Manaus between 1990 and 2017 obtained through the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Data regarding temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation for this municipality were derived from the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) websites. Coherence and wavelet phase analysis was conducted to measure the degree of relationship of the occurrence of the cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results show that during La Niña events, an increase in American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) cases is anticipated after the increase in rainfall from November, resulting in a more significant number of cases in January, February, and March. It was observed that in the municipality of Manaus, the dynamics of ACL cases are directly influenced by ENSO events that affect environmental variables such as precipitation, temperature, and humidity. Therefore, climatic variations consequently change the ACL incidence dynamics, leading to subsequent increases or decreases in the incidence of ACL cases in the area.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Leishmaniose Cutânea , Brasil/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Leishmaniose Cutânea/epidemiologia , Temperatura
8.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(20): 5043-5053, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34273223

RESUMO

As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought-sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Árvores , Secas , Florestas , Estações do Ano , Plântula , Clima Tropical
9.
Ecology ; 102(10): e03458, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34171124

RESUMO

Each year, an individual mature large saguaro cactus produces about one million seeds in attractive juicy fruits that lure seed predators and seed dispersers to a 3-month feast. From the million seeds produced, however, only a few will persist into mature saguaros. A century of research on saguaro population dynamics has led to the conclusion that saguaro recruitment is an episodic event that depends on the convergence of suitable conditions for survival during the critical early stages. Because most data have been collected in Arizona, particularly in the surroundings of Tucson, most research has relied on a limited amount of environmental variation. In this study, we upscaled this knowledge on saguaro recruitment to a regional scale with a new method that used the inverse-growth modeling of 1,487 saguaros belonging to 13 populations in a latitudinal gradient ranging from arid desert to tropical thornscrub forest in Sonora, Mexico. Using generalized linear and additive mixed models, we created two 110-yr-long saguaro recruitment curves: one driven only by previous size, and the second driven by size, drought, and soil structure. We found evidence that saguaro recruitment is indeed episodic, with periodicities of 20-30 yr, possibly related to strong El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Our results suggest that saguaros rely on multidecadal periodic pulses of good beneficial years to incorporate new individuals into their populations. Inverse-growth modeling can be used in a wide variety of plant species to study their recruitment dynamics.


Assuntos
Cactaceae , Cactaceae/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Secas , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Florestas , Periodicidade , Dinâmica Populacional
10.
Commun Biol ; 4(1): 790, 2021 06 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34172834

RESUMO

Humpback whales are thought to undertake annual migrations between their low latitude breeding grounds and high latitude feeding grounds. However, under specific conditions, humpback whales sometimes change their migratory destination or skip migration overall. Here we document the surprising persistent presence of humpback whales in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean during five years (2011, 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2018) using passive acoustic data. However, in the El Niño years 2015 and 2016, humpback whales were virtually absent. Our data show that humpback whales are systematically present in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean and suggest that these whales are particularly sensitive to climate oscillations which have profound effects on winds, sea ice extent, primary production, and especially krill productivity.


Assuntos
Migração Animal , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Jubarte , Animais , Ecologia , Oceanos e Mares , Vocalização Animal
11.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(19): 4564-4574, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34089551

RESUMO

The ability of individuals and populations to adapt to a changing climate is a key determinant of population dynamics. While changes in mean behaviour are well studied, changes in trait variance have been largely ignored, despite being assumed to be crucial for adapting to a changing environment. As the ability to acquire resources is essential to both reproduction and survival, changes in behaviours that maximize resource acquisition should be under selection. Here, using foraging trip duration data collected over 7 years on black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophris) on the Kerguelen Islands in the southern Indian Ocean, we examined the importance of changes in the mean and variance in foraging behaviour, and the associated effects on fitness, in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using double hierarchical models, we found no evidence that individuals change their mean foraging trip duration in response to a changing environment, but found strong evidence of changes in variance. Younger birds showed greater variability in foraging trip duration in poor conditions as did birds with higher fitness. However, during brooding, birds showed greater variability in foraging behaviour under good conditions, suggesting that optimal conditions allow the alteration between chick provisioning and self-maintenance trips. We found weak correlations between sea surface temperature and the ENSO, but stronger links with sea-level pressure. We suggest that variability in behavioural traits affecting resource acquisition is under selection and offers a mechanism by which individuals can adapt to a changing climate. Studies which look only at effects on mean behaviour may underestimate the effects of climate change and fail to consider variance in traits as a key evolutionary force.


Assuntos
Aves , Reprodução , Animais , Mudança Climática , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Humanos , Dinâmica Populacional
12.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(16): 3798-3809, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33934460

RESUMO

The 2015-2016 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, but its influence on the carbon balance is less clear. Using Northern Hemisphere atmospheric CO2 observations, we found both detrended atmospheric CO2 growth rate (CGR) and CO2 seasonal-cycle amplitude (SCA) of 2015-2016 were much higher than that of other El Niño events. The simultaneous high CGR and SCA were unusual, because our analysis of long-term CO2 observations at Mauna Loa revealed a significantly negative correlation between CGR and SCA. Atmospheric inversions and terrestrial ecosystem models indicate strong northern land carbon uptake during spring but substantially reduced carbon uptake (or high emissions) during early autumn, which amplified SCA but also resulted in a small anomaly in annual carbon uptake of northern ecosystems in 2015-2016. This negative ecosystem carbon uptake anomaly in early autumn was primarily due to soil water deficits and more litter decomposition caused by enhanced spring productivity. Our study demonstrates a decoupling between seasonality and annual carbon cycle balance in northern ecosystems over 2015-2016, which is unprecedented in the past five decades of El Niño events.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Atmosfera , Carbono , Ciclo do Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono
13.
Glob Chang Biol ; 27(14): 3312-3323, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33844871

RESUMO

Shallow reefs are a major feature of coral assemblages in the Andaman Sea. At Phuket, Thailand sheltered reefs are dominated by massive corals, together with an increasing abundance of branching species during favourable growth conditions. The growth of coral on these reefs is moderated by long-term increases in sea temperature and relative sea level but fluctuating decadal/intradecadal climate processes of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which modulate sea level and temperature, are the main drivers of coral cover. In this study, the contribution of these two climate processes was identified and also quantified. Over a 34-year study of fluctuating coral cover, the three major reductions in cover in 1997, 2010 and 2019 were linked to overlapping positive IOD (pIOD) and El Niños in 1997 and 2019, and with an El Niño alone in 2010. Combined pIOD and El Niño depressed sea level was the major factor in reducing cover in 1997 while El Niño extreme sea temperatures were responsible for large reductions in 2010. In 2019, a bi-phasic pIOD and El Niño resulted in lowered cover at a time of both decreased sea level and high sea temperature. Under global warming scenarios, it is projected that extreme pIODs, such as those seen in 1997 and 2019, will occur more frequently while El Niño frequencies will continue to increase even after global mean temperature stabilization. In these circumstances, and with steadily rising background sea temperatures, the future risks to the shallow reefs of the Andaman Sea are substantial, despite any temporary respite gained from climate related or land subsidence sea-level rise. Such findings have wider implications for all reefs affected by climatic-driven sea-level depressions, particularly those around Indonesian shores where similar El-Niño-related reductions in coral cover have been reported.


Assuntos
Antozoários , Animais , Recifes de Corais , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Oceano Índico , Indonésia , Tailândia
14.
Environ Monit Assess ; 193(5): 263, 2021 Apr 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33847840

RESUMO

Rainfall is a climatic variable that dictates the daily rhythm of urban areas in Northeastern Brazil (NEB) and, therefore, understanding its dynamics is fundamental. The objectives of the study were (i) to validate the CHELSA product with data in situ, (ii) assess the spatial-temporality of the rains, and (iii) assess the trends and socio-environmental implications in the Metropolitan Region of Maceió (MRM). The monthly rainfall data observed between 1960 and 2016 were flawed and were filled with the imputation of data. These series were subjected to descriptive and exploratory statistics, statistical indicators, and the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Pettitt tests. CHELSA product was validated for MRM, and all stations obtained satisfactory determination coefficients (R2) and Pearson correlation (r). The standard error of the estimate (SEE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) were satisfactory. The highest annual rainfall accumulated occurred near the Mundaú and Manguaba lagoons. The Pettitt test identified that abrupt changes occur in El Niño and La Niña years (strong and weak). The monthly rain boxplots showed high variability in the rainy season (April-July). Outliers have been associated with extreme rainfall at MRM. The drought period was 5 months in all MRM seasons, except in Satuba and Pilar. The Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method showed a tendency for a significant increase in rainfall in Satuba and not significant in the Pilar, while in the others, there was a tendency for a decrease in rainfall. The MRM rainfall depends on physiographic factors, multiscale meteorological systems, and the coastal environment. These results will assist in planning conservationist practices, especially in areas of socio-environmental vulnerability.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Chuva , Brasil , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Estações do Ano
15.
Acta Trop ; 223: 105894, 2021 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33753032

RESUMO

The potential distribution of four American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis vectors under average conditions during Neutral (in between episodes), El Niño, and La Niña episodes from 2000 to 2018 were constructed through ecological niche modeling. The potential distribution in El Niño and La Niña were compared with the Neutral distribution. The four vector species (Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia ovallesi, Lutzomyia panamensis, and Lutzomyia trapidoi) decreased the potential distribution with the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña episodes. During El Niño, the reduction was concentrated over the dry ecosystems, while with the occurrence of La Niña, the potential distribution decreased over most of the Neotropic, leaving areas of climatic suitability concentrated in the Andean and Amazon areas, along with some scattered patches. We found evidence that the occurrence of the climatic anomalies has an effect on the potential distribution of this vector species.


Assuntos
Psychodidae , Animais , Ecossistema , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Insetos Vetores/parasitologia , Leishmaniose Cutânea/epidemiologia , Psychodidae/parasitologia
16.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 1526, 2021 03 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33750781

RESUMO

The past 40 years in Southeast Asia have seen about 50% of lowland rainforests converted to oil palm and other plantations, and much of the remaining forest heavily logged. Little is known about how fragmentation influences recovery and whether climate change will hamper restoration. Here, we use repeat airborne LiDAR surveys spanning the hot and dry 2015-16 El Niño Southern Oscillation event to measure canopy height growth across 3,300 ha of regenerating tropical forests spanning a logging intensity gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We show that the drought led to increased leaf shedding and branch fall. Short forest, regenerating after heavy logging, continued to grow despite higher evaporative demand, except when it was located close to oil palm plantations. Edge effects from the plantations extended over 300 metres into the forests. Forest growth on hilltops and slopes was particularly impacted by the combination of fragmentation and drought, but even riparian forests located within 40 m of oil palm plantations lost canopy height during the drought. Our results suggest that small patches of logged forest within plantation landscapes will be slow to recover, particularly as ENSO events are becoming more frequent.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul/efeitos adversos , Florestas , Árvores , Clima Tropical , Arecaceae , Ásia Sudeste , Bornéu , Mudança Climática , Secas , Ecologia , Humanos , Malásia , Folhas de Planta , Floresta Úmida
17.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 3402, 2021 02 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33564043

RESUMO

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide. While extreme summer surface air temperatures are thought to be a risk factor for IHD, it is unclear whether large-scale climate patterns also influence this risk. This multi-national population-based study investigated the association between summer Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability and annual acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or IHD event rates among older adults residing in North America and the United Kingdom. Overall, a shift from cool to warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was associated with reduced AMI admissions in western Canada (adjusted rate ratio [RR] 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80-0.99), where this climate pattern predominatly forces below-normal cloud cover and precipitation during summertime, and increased AMI deaths in western United States (RR 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.15), where it forces increased cloud cover and precipitation. Whereas, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) during a strong positive phase was associated with reduced AMI admissions in eastern Canada (RR 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98) and increased IHD mortality during summer months in the United Kingdom (RR 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.14). These findings suggest that SST variability can be used to predict changes in cardiovascular event rates in regions that are susceptible.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Temperatura Alta , Isquemia Miocárdica/mortalidade , Estações do Ano , Idoso , Humanos , América do Norte/epidemiologia , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
18.
Naturwissenschaften ; 108(1): 7, 2021 Feb 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33528676

RESUMO

Gut microorganisms are crucial for many biological functions playing a pivotal role in the host's well-being. We studied gut bacterial community structure of marine iguana populations across the Galápagos archipelago. Marine iguanas depend heavily on their specialized gut microbiome for the digestion of dietary algae, a resource whose growth was strongly reduced by severe "El Niño"-related climatic fluctuations in 2015/2016. As a consequence, marine iguana populations showed signs of starvation as expressed by a poor body condition. Body condition indices (BCI) varied between island populations indicating that food resources (i.e., algae) are affected differently across the archipelago during 'El Niño' events. Though this event impacted food availability for marine iguanas, we found that reductions in body condition due to "El Niño"-related starvation did not result in differences in bacterial gut community structure. Species richness of gut microorganisms was instead correlated with levels of neutral genetic diversity in the distinct host populations. Our data suggest that marine iguana populations with a higher level of gene diversity and allelic richness may harbor a more diverse gut microbiome than those populations with lower genetic diversity. Since low values of these diversity parameters usually correlate with small census and effective population sizes, we use our results to propose a novel hypothesis according to which small and genetically less diverse host populations might be characterized by less diverse microbiomes. Whether such genetically depauperate populations may experience additional threats from reduced dietary flexibility due to a limited intestinal microbiome is currently unclear and calls for further investigation.


Assuntos
El Niño Oscilação Sul , Microbioma Gastrointestinal/fisiologia , Iguanas/microbiologia , Animais , Biodiversidade , Equador
19.
Environ Health ; 20(1): 22, 2021 02 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33637108

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios. METHODS: We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (< 5 years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005-2009) and after (2010-2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access. RESULTS: Nationally, an increase of 1 °C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate. CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Diarreia/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , El Niño Oscilação Sul , Humanos , Lactente , Peru/epidemiologia , Temperatura
20.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int ; 28(23): 29755-29772, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33566290

RESUMO

Although El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been widely confirmed to have significant impacts on climate change in Asia, it is unknown whether the climate change in the Yangtze River Basin (YTR basin) is related to the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, which is the world's largest hydropower station. In this study, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as an indicator of climate change and found that the mutation period of the YTR basin was 2003-2006 based on three mutation tests. By analyzing the trends of the SPEI and five related meteorological factors before and after 2003, it was found that the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir increased the relative humidity and provided a more humid climate for the downstream basin. The relationships between drought events and ENSO and the water level of the reservoir indicated that the basin was more prone to drought in El Niño years and the Three Gorges Reservoir could alleviate agricultural drought in the downstream basin. The spatial impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on regional climate change were more pronounced, while the impact of ENSO could not be reflected at the station scale.


Assuntos
Secas , Rios , Ásia , Mudança Climática , El Niño Oscilação Sul
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