Climate change extinctions.

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.

A new species of the Cambeva variegata group (Siluriformes: Trichomycteridae) from the Serra do Espinhaço, south-eastern Brazil, under severe risk of extinction.

The mountain ranges of southeastern and southern Brazil are inhabited by a great diversity of catfishes of the genus Cambeva. The Cambeva variegata group, diagnosed by having a prominent skin crest similar to an adipose fin, an interrupted supraorbital laterosensory canal, with an additional supraorbital S4 pore, and a relatively small premaxilla with an accentuated constriction on its lateral portion, occurs in a broad area of south-eastern Brazil, mostly within the savannah-like Cerrado vegetation at the northern-most part of the genus distribution. The new species described here was collected in streams of the Rio das Velhas drainage, Rio São Francisco basin, draining the Serra do Espinhaço. The new species is diagnosed by having more interopercular odontodes and a combination of morphometric data, colour pattern, relative dorsal-fin origin and vertebra position, and-fin-ray morphology. Field studies indicate that the two localities where the new species occur are being dramatically affected by negative human impacts, putting it in severe risk of extinction.

Refuting the hypothesis of Centinelan extinction at its place of origin.

Scientists' limited understanding of tropical plant communities obscures the true extent of species loss caused by habitat destruction1. The Centinelan extinction hypothesis2,3 posits an extreme but widely referenced scenario wherein forest clearing causes the immediate extinction of species known only from a single geographic location. It remains unclear, however, whether the disappearance of such microendemics reflects their global extinction or insufficient collection effort at larger scales. Here we test these hypotheses by synthesizing decades of floristic data from the heavily deforested tropical cloud forest (TCF) at Centinela, Ecuador. We find that 99% of its putative microendemics have been collected elsewhere and are not extinct. Our field work also revealed new species, highlighting the enduring conservation value of TCFs and the intense efforts required to illuminate such plant diversity 'darkspots'4. Field and herbarium research remain essential to the conservation action needed to forestall large-scale plant extinctions in Earth's beleaguered cloud forests.

Resource-based modelling approach to studying evolutionary rescue.

In this paper, we present an in-depth investigation into the dynamics of evolutionary rescue using a resource-based modelling approach. Utilizing classical consumer-resource models, we aim to understand how species can adapt to abrupt environmental changes that alter the availability of substitutable resources. Through both analytical solutions and simulation-based techniques, we explore the conditions under which populations can recover from critical sizes and avoid extinction. Our findings highlight the importance of minimum viable population sizes, mutation rates, and the adaptive capacity of metabolic strategies in influencing population resilience. We demonstrate that while increased mutation rates can facilitate faster recovery by enabling populations to evolve new metabolic strategies suited to the altered resource landscape, populations starting with smaller sizes or facing severe reductions in resource availability are more susceptible to extinction. This study offers valuable insights into the interplay between ecological dynamics and evolutionary mechanisms, providing a comprehensive framework for predicting population persistence and informing conservation strategies under changing environmental conditions.

Effects of trade and poaching pressure on extinction risk for cacti in the Atacama Desert.

In this era of a global biodiversity crisis, vascular plants are facing unprecedented extinction rates. We conducted an assessment of the extinction risk of 32 species and 7 subspecies of Copiapoa, a genus endemic to Chile's fog-dependent coastal Atacama Desert. We applied the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List Categories and Criteria enhanced by expert insights and knowledge. Our primary aim was to analyze the impact of trade and poaching on their extinction risk. We employed machine learning models, including multinomial logistic regression (MLR), decision tree (DT), and random forest (RF), to analyze the relationships between conservation status and various factors. These factors encompassed trade and poaching activities, landscape condition, human footprint, monthly cloud frequency, and biological traits such as evolutionary distinctiveness and maximum diameter. Seven taxa had an area of occupancy (AOO) of <10 km2, 10 additional taxa had an AOO of <20 km2, and 16 taxa had an AOO of ≤100 km2. This reassessment exposed a critical level of extinction risk for the genus; 92% of the taxa were classified as threatened, 41% as critically endangered, 41% as endangered, and 10% as vulnerable. MLR, DT, and RF exhibited accuracies of 0.784, 0.730, and 0.598, respectively, and identified trade and poaching pressure and landscape condition as the primary drivers of extinction risk. Our assessment of Copiapoa showed trade, poaching, habitat degradation, and their synergic impacts as the main drivers of the genus' extinction risk. Our results highlight the urgent need for nations to develop and enforce strategies to monitor and control trade and poaching pressure because these factors are crucial for the long-term persistence of desert plants.

Retos para la regulación del uso comercial de serpientes elápidas marinas en el Indo­Pacífico Resumen En estos tiempos de la crisis mundial de la biodiversidad, las plantas vasculares enfrentan una tasa de extinción sin precedentes. Evaluamos el riesgo de extinción de 32 especies y siete subespecies de Copiapoa, un género endémico al Desierto de Atacama. Aplicamos los Criterios y Categorías de la Lista Roja de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza mejoradas con información y conocimiento de expertos. Nuestro principal objetivo era analizar el impacto del mercado y la colecta ilegal sobre el riesgo de extinción de estas plantas. Usamos modelos de aprendizaje automático, incluyendo la regresión logística multinominal, los árboles de decisión y los bosques aleatorios, para analizar las relaciones entre el estado de conservación y diversos factores. Estos factores englobaron las actividades de mercado y colecta ilegal, condiciones del terreno, huella humana, frecuencia mensual de nubes y características biológicas como la singularidad evolutiva y el diámetro máximo. Siete taxones tuvieron un área de ocupación (ADO) <10 km2, diez taxones más tuvieron ADO <20 km2 y 16 taxones tuvieron ADO ≤100 km2. Este análisis expuso el nivel crítico del riesgo de extinción del género Copiapoa: el 92% de los taxones están clasificados como amenazados, 41% como en peligro crítico, 41% como en peligro y 10% como vulnerable. La regresión logística multinominal, los árboles de decisión y los bosques aleatorios exhibieron una certeza del 0.784, 0.730 y 0.598, respectivamente. También identificaron a la presión del mercado y la colecta ilegal y las condiciones del terreno como los principales factores detrás de riesgo de extinción. Nuestro análisis del género Copiapoa mostró que el mercado, la colecta ilegal, la degradación del hábitat y sus impactos sinérgicos como los principales factores detrás del riesgo de extinción del género. Nuestros resultados resaltan la necesidad urgente de que las naciones desarrollen y apliquen estrategias para monitorear y controlar la presión del mercado y la colecta ilegal pues estos son factores cruciales para la persistencia a largo plazo de las plantas de los desiertos.

Coping with collapse: Functional robustness of coral-reef fish network to simulated cascade extinction.

Human activities and climate change have accelerated species losses and degradation of ecosystems to unprecedented levels. Both theoretical and empirical evidence suggest that extinction cascades contribute substantially to global species loss. The effects of extinction cascades can ripple across levels of ecological organization, causing not only the secondary loss of taxonomic diversity but also functional diversity erosion. Here, we take a step forward in coextinction analysis by estimating the functional robustness of reef fish communities to species loss. We built a tripartite network with nodes and links based on a model output predicting reef fish occupancy (113 species) as a function of coral and turf algae cover in Southwestern Atlantic reefs. This network comprised coral species, coral-associated fish (site occupancy directly related to coral cover), and co-occurring fish (occupancy indirectly related to coral cover). We used attack-tolerance curves and estimated network robustness (R) to quantify the cascading loss of reef fish taxonomic and functional diversity along three scenarios of coral species loss: degree centrality (removing first corals with more coral-associated fish), bleaching vulnerability and post-bleaching mortality (most vulnerable removed first), and random removal. Degree centrality produced the greatest losses (lowest R) in comparison with other scenarios. In this scenario, while functional diversity was robust to the direct loss of coral-associated fish (R = 0.85), the taxonomic diversity was not robust to coral loss (R = 0.54). Both taxonomic and functional diversity showed low robustness to indirect fish extinctions (R = 0.31 and R = 0.57, respectively). Projections of 100% coral species loss caused a reduction of 69% of the regional trait space area. The effects of coral loss in Southwestern Atlantic reefs went beyond the direct coral-fish relationships. Ever-growing human impacts on reef ecosystems can cause extinction cascades with detrimental consequences for fish assemblages that benefit from corals.

The genomes of all lungfish inform on genome expansion and tetrapod evolution.

The genomes of living lungfishes can inform on the molecular-developmental basis of the Devonian sarcopterygian fish-tetrapod transition. We de novo sequenced the genomes of the African (Protopterus annectens) and South American lungfishes (Lepidosiren paradoxa). The Lepidosiren genome (about 91 Gb, roughly 30 times the human genome) is the largest animal genome sequenced so far and more than twice the size of the Australian (Neoceratodus forsteri)1 and African2 lungfishes owing to enlarged intergenic regions and introns with high repeat content (about 90%). All lungfish genomes continue to expand as some transposable elements (TEs) are still active today. In particular, Lepidosiren's genome grew extremely fast during the past 100 million years (Myr), adding the equivalent of one human genome every 10 Myr. This massive genome expansion seems to be related to a reduction of PIWI-interacting RNAs and C2H2 zinc-finger and Krüppel-associated box (KRAB)-domain protein genes that suppress TE expansions. Although TE abundance facilitates chromosomal rearrangements, lungfish chromosomes still conservatively reflect the ur-tetrapod karyotype. Neoceratodus' limb-like fins still resemble those of their extinct relatives and remained phenotypically static for about 100 Myr. We show that the secondary loss of limb-like appendages in the Lepidosiren-Protopterus ancestor was probably due to loss of sonic hedgehog limb-specific enhancers.

Femora nutrient foramina and aerobic capacity in giant extinct xenarthrans.

Nutrient foramina are small openings in the periosteal surface of the mid-shaft region of long bones that traverse the cortical layer and reach the medullary cavity. They are important for the delivery of nutrients and oxygen to bone tissue and are crucial for the repair and remodeling of bones over time. The nutrient foramina in the femur's diaphysis are related to the energetic needs of the femur and have been shown to be related to the maximum metabolic rate (MMR) of taxa. Here, we investigate the relationship between nutrient foramen size and body mass as a proxy to the aerobic capacity of taxa in living and extinct xenarthrans, including living sloths, anteaters, and armadillos, as well as extinct xenarthrans such as glyptodonts, pampatheres, and ground sloths. Seventy femora were sampled, including 20 from extant taxa and 50 from extinct taxa. We obtained the blood flow rate (Q̇) based on foramina area and performed PGLS and phylogenetic ANCOVA in order to explore differences among mammalian groups. Our results show that, among mammals, taxa commonly associated with lower metabolism like living xenarthrans showed relatively smaller foramina, while the foramina of giant extinct xenarthrans like ground sloths and glyptodonts overlapped with non-xenarthran placentals. Consequently, Q̇ estimations indicated aerobic capacities comparable to other placental giant taxa like elephants or some ungulates. Furthermore, the estimation of the MMR for fossil giant taxa showed similar results, with almost all taxa showing high values except for those for which strong semi-arboreal or fossorial habits have been proposed. Moreover, the results are compatible with the diets predicted for extinct taxa, which indicate a strong consumption of grass similar to ungulates and in contrast to the folivorous or insectivorous diets of extant xenarthrans. The ancestral reconstruction of the MMR values indicated a lack of a common pattern for all xenarthrans, strongly supporting the occurrence of low metabolic rates in extant forms due to their particular dietary preferences and arboreal or fossorial habits. Our results highlight the importance of considering different evidence beyond the phylogenetic position of extinct taxa, especially when extinct forms are exceptionally different from their extant relatives. Future studies evaluating the energetic needs of giant extinct xenarthrans should not assume lower metabolic rates for these extinct animals based solely on their phylogenetic position and the observations on their extant relatives.

Experimental evidence of climate change extinction risk in Neotropical montane epiphytes.

Climate change is conjectured to endanger tropical species, particularly in biodiverse montane regions, but accurate estimates of extinction risk are limited by a lack of empirical data demonstrating tropical species' sensitivity to climate. To fill this gap, studies could match high-quality distribution data with multi-year transplant experiments. Here, we conduct field surveys of epiphyte distributions on three mountains in Central America and perform reciprocal transplant experiments on one mountain across sites that varied in elevation, temperature and aridity. We find that most species are unable to survive outside of their narrow elevational distributions. Additionally, our findings suggest starkly different outcomes from temperature conditions expected by 2100 under different climate change scenarios. Under temperatures associated with low-emission scenarios, most tropical montane epiphyte species will survive, but under emission scenarios that are moderately high, 5-36% of our study species may go extinct and 10-55% of populations may be lost. Using a test of tropical species' climate tolerances from a large field experiment, paired with detailed species distribution data across multiple mountains, our work strengthens earlier conjecture about risks of wide-spread extinctions from climate change in tropical montane ecosystems.

Cenozoic seeds of Vitaceae reveal a deep history of extinction and dispersal in the Neotropics.

The remarkably diverse plant communities of the Neotropics are the result of diversification driven by multiple biotic (for example, speciation, extinction and dispersal) and abiotic (for example, climatic and tectonic) processes. However, in the absence of a well-preserved, thoroughly sampled and critically assessed fossil record, the associated processes of dispersal and extinction are poorly understood. We report an exceptional case study documenting patterns of extinction in the grape family (Vitaceae Juss.) on the basis of fossil seeds discovered in four Neotropical palaeofloras dated between 60 and 19 Ma. These include a new species that provides the earliest evidence of Vitaceae in the Western Hemisphere. Eight additional species reveal the former presence of major clades of the family that are currently absent from the Neotropics and elucidate previously unknown dispersal events. Our results indicate that regional extinction and dispersal have substantially impacted the evolutionary history of Vitaceae in the Neotropics. They also suggest that while the Neotropics have been dynamic centres of diversification through the Cenozoic, extant Neotropical botanical diversity has also been shaped by extensive extinction over the past 66 million years.

Anthropic cut marks in extinct megafauna bones from the Pampean region (Argentina) at the last glacial maximum.

The initial peopling of South America is a topic of intense archaeological debate. Among the most contentious issues remain the nature of the human-megafauna interaction and the possible role of humans, along with climatic change, in the extinction of several megamammal genera at the end of the Pleistocene. In this study, we present the analysis of fossil remains with cutmarks belonging to a specimen of Neosclerocalyptus (Xenarthra, Glyptodontidae), found on the banks of the Reconquista River, northeast of the Pampean region (Argentina), whose AMS 14C dating corresponds to the Last Glacial Maximum (21,090-20,811 cal YBP). Paleoenvironmental reconstructions, stratigraphic descriptions, absolute chronological dating of bone materials, and deposits suggest a relatively rapid burial event of the bone assemblage in a semi-dry climate during a wet season. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of the cut marks, reconstruction of butchering sequences, and assessments of the possible agents involved in the observed bone surface modifications indicate anthropic activities. Our results provide new elements for discussing the earliest peopling of southern South America and specifically for the interaction between humans and local megafauna in the Pampean region during the Last Glacial Maximum.

The role of epistasis in evolutionary rescue.

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.

A global map of species at risk of extinction due to natural hazards.

An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.

'Miraculous' plant spotted on famed Ecuador ridge.

The former biodiversity hot spot had become a classic example of extinction.

Short-term extinction predicted by population viability analysis for a Neotropical salt marsh endemic bird.

Salt marshes pose challenges for the birds that inhabit them, including high rates of nest flooding, tipping, and predation. The impacts of rising sea levels and invasive species further exacerbate these challenges. To assess the urgency of conservation and adequacy of new actions, researchers and wildlife managers may use population viability analyses (PVAs) to identify population trends and major threats. We conducted PVA for Formicivora acutirostris, which is a threatened neotropical bird species endemic to salt marshes. We studied the species' demography in different sectors of an estuary in southern Brazil from 2006 to 2023 and estimated the sex ratio, longevity, productivity, first-year survival, and mortality rates. For a 133-year period, starting in 1990, we modeled four scenarios: (1) pessimistic and (2) optimistic scenarios, including the worst and best values for the parameters; (3) a baseline scenario, with intermediate values; and (4) scenarios under conservation management, with increased recruitment and/or habitat preservation. Projections indicated population decline for all assessment scenarios, with a 100% probability of extinction by 2054 in the pessimistic scenario and no extinction in the optimistic scenario. The conservation scenarios indicated population stability with 16% improvement in productivity, 10% improvement in first-year survival, and stable carrying capacity. The disjunct distribution of the species, with remnants concentrated in a broad interface with arboreal habitats, may seal the population decline by increasing nest predation. The species should be considered conservation dependent, and we recommend assisted colonization, predator control, habitat recovery, and ex situ conservation.

An extinct north American porcupine with a South American tail.

New World porcupines (Erethizontinae) originated in South America and dispersed into North America as part of the Great American Biotic Interchange (GABI) 3-4 million years ago.1 Extant prehensile-tailed porcupines (Coendou) today live in tropical forests of Central and South America.2,3 In contrast, North American porcupines (Erethizon dorsatum) are thought to be ecologically adapted to higher-latitude temperate forests, with a larger body, shorter tail, and diet that includes bark.4,5,6,7 Limited fossils8,9,10,11,12,13 have hindered our understanding of the timing of this ecological differentiation relative to intercontinental dispersal during the GABI and expansion into temperate habitats.14,15,16,17,18 Here, we describe functionally important features of the skeleton of the extinct Erethizon poyeri, the oldest nearly complete porcupine skeleton documented from North America, found in the early Pleistocene of Florida. It differs from extant E. dorsatum in having a long, prehensile tail, grasping foot, and lacking dental specializations for bark gnawing, similar to tropical Coendou. Results from phylogenetic analysis suggest that the more arboreal characteristics found in E. poyeri are ancestral for erethizontines. Only after it expanded into temperate, Nearctic habitats did Erethizon acquire the characteristic features that it is known for today. When combined with molecular estimates of divergence times, results suggest that Erethizon was ecologically similar to a larger species of Coendou when it crossed the Isthmus of Panama by the early Pleistocene. It is likely that the range of this more tropically adapted form was limited to a continuous forested biome that extended from South America through the Gulf Coast.

Understanding evolutionary rescue and parallelism in response to environmental stress.

Evolutionary rescue, the process by which populations facing environmental stress avoid extinction through genetic adaptation, is a critical area of study in evolutionary biology. The order in which mutations arise and get established will be relevant to the population's rescue. This study investigates the degree of parallel evolution at the genotypic level between independent populations facing environmental stress and subject to different demographic regimes. Under density regulation, 2 regimes exist: In the first, the population can restore positive growth rates by adjusting its population size or through adaptive mutations, whereas in the second regime, the population is doomed to extinction unless a rescue mutation occurs. Analytical approximations for the likelihood of evolutionary rescue are obtained and contrasted with simulation results. We show that the initial level of maladaptation and the demographic regime significantly affect the level of parallelism. There is an evident transition between these 2 regimes. Whereas in the first regime, parallelism decreases with the level of maladaptation, it displays the opposite behavior in the rescue/extinction regime. These findings have important implications for understanding population persistence and the degree of parallelism in evolutionary responses as they integrate demographic effects and evolutionary processes.

The reorganization of predator-prey networks over 20 million years explains extinction patterns of mammalian carnivores.

Linking the species interactions occurring at the scale of local communities to their potential impact at evolutionary timescales is challenging. Here, we used the high-resolution fossil record of mammals from the Iberian Peninsula to reconstruct a timeseries of trophic networks spanning more than 20 million years and asked whether predator-prey interactions affected regional extinction patterns. We found that, despite small changes in species richness, trophic networks showed long-term trends, gradually losing interactions and becoming sparser towards the present. This restructuring of the ecological networks was driven by the loss of medium-sized herbivores, which reduced prey availability for predators. The decrease in prey availability was associated with predator longevity, such that predators with less available prey had greater extinction risk. These results not only reveal long-term trends in network structure but suggest that prey species richness in ecological communities may shape large scale patterns of extinction and persistence among predators.

Potential effects of brown howler monkey extinction on dispersal services in fragmented forests void of large dispersers.

The dispersal of large-seeded species strongly depends on medium-sized and large frugivores, such as primates, which are highly susceptible to population declines. In the Atlantic Forest, brown howler monkeys Alouatta guariba are medium-sized folivorous-frugivorous species that are likely to occur in small to large fragments where the largest frugivores are extinct. However, populations of this primate have been suffering from forest fragmentation, habitat loss, hunting, and the direct and indirect effects of yellow fever outbreaks, which increase the importance of understanding their role as seed dispersers and the impacts of their potential loss. The richness and abundance of large-seeded species might also be reduced in smaller fragments, which could directly affect the magnitude of the potential impact of disperser extinction on plant recruitment. Here, we tested the following mutually exclusive predictions on the effect of fragment size on plant richness and relative density of medium- and large-seeded species consumed by brown howler monkeys in fragments smaller than 1500 ha: the number and the relative density of plant species potentially affected by the local extinction of these monkeys will be (1) directly related to forest fragment size, or (2) not related to forest fragment size. Plant richness and the relative density of large- and medium-sized seed species consumed by brown howler monkeys did not vary with fragment size, corroborating our second prediction. Thus, the local extinction of brown howler monkeys would have a similar potentially negative impact on plant regeneration for the range of tested fragment sizes. We discuss the limitations of our results and suggest other lines of enquiry for the refinement of our conclusions.