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1.
Sci Total Environ ; 802: 149928, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34464806

RESUMO

Climate change in recent decades led to the remarkable expansions for most lakes in endorheic basins of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Enlarged lake inundation areas may pose adverse effects and potential threats on the local human living environment, especially for high-risk villages adjacent to rapidly expanding lakes. Taking a rapidly expanding lake, Angzi Co in the central TP as a study case, we investigated the flooding risk of lake growth on the local living environment and proposed an optimized solution of village relocation selection on the basis of satellite and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing. The detection of spatiotemporal variations of Angzi Co using optical and altimetric satellite observations revealed a significant area and water level increase by 81.28 km2 and 5.78 m, respectively, from 2000 to 2020. We also assessed the vertical accuracy of multi-source digital elevation model (DEM) products using Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) altimetry data and further examined the flooding risk and potential influences of lake expansion on adjacent settlements (Guozha Village). Results indicated that UAV-DEM achieves excellent advantages in depicting details of lake shoreline variations and simulating potential submergence regions, followed by Advanced Land Observing Satellite World 3D DEM (AW3D DEM). Moreover, assuming that Angzi Co maintains the water level at a growth rate of 0.29 m/a (the average change rate during 2000-2020), the village will be submerged in approximate 10 years based on our assessment. Furthermore, we designed an optimal relocation site southwest of Guozha Village and approximately 3 km away based on the GIS-MVDA method and field investigations. An initial remote sensing-based approach for assessing the flooding risk from dramatic lake expansions in the TP and optimizing the village relocation site was proposed in this study to provide an essential scientific reference for formulating risk mitigation solutions under future climate change scenarios.


Assuntos
Lagos , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Mudança Climática , Inundações , Humanos , Tibet
2.
Chemosphere ; 286(Pt 1): 131571, 2022 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34293571

RESUMO

Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) is a systematic tool used for an efficient hydraulic structures design, operation and maintenance. An effort is made to study and compare the Linear Log Regression Graphical Method (LLRGM) and Gumbel's Analytical Method (GAM) to assess the future flood magnitude for any given Return Period (RP). Twenty-four years of annual daily peak flood flow value recorded at Vaigai reservoir gauging station between the year 1995 and 2018 was used in the two methods for detailed analysis. The results indicated that the GAM predicts the maximum possible optimum future flood in comparison with the LLRGM. This conclusion was drawn based on the coefficient of determination R2 obtained as 0.8904, which is nearing 1. Based on the analytical method of Gumbel's, the magnitude of frequency factor K has been introduced based on the size of data and coveted RP. The comparative study will provide boon to regulate the storage water to the posterior areas concerning safety and optimum utilization of water for various uses.


Assuntos
Inundações , Rios , Previsões , Índia , Análise de Regressão
3.
J Environ Manage ; 301: 113805, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34731957

RESUMO

The consequences of protected areas for proximal human communities are diverse. Protected areas can alleviate poverty by providing a range of economic opportunities for people that live and work within them. Equally, however, they may also disempower and disposes local communities. For communities adapting to systemic environmental change, proximity to protected areas can act to limit potential adaptive pathways. Here, we employ social science methods to explore the impact of an internationally significant protected area on adjacent communities in the Tonle Sap Lake basin, Cambodia. Semi-structured interviews, informed by a scenario framework, reveal an awareness of declining fish yields and a perceived lack of economic alternatives. Vulnerability to hydroclimatic extremes, particularly storms, flood, drought and - increasingly - fire, are exacerbated as a result of proximity to the protected area. We conclude that the impact of protected areas on local communities is heterogenous, and that the development of adaptive and effective management policies requires sensitivity to local conditions and impacts.


Assuntos
Inundações , Lagos , Aclimatação , Animais , Camboja , Peixes
4.
Sci Total Environ ; 806(Pt 1): 150313, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34555608

RESUMO

Most research on the ecological responses to extreme floods examines impacts at short time scales, whereas long-term datasets combining hydrological and biological information remain rare. Using such data, we applied time-series analysis to investigate simultaneous effects of a biotic factor (density dependence), an abiotic factor (extreme floods), and spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of three riverine insects. Spatial synchronization of population dynamics by extreme floods varied among species. These different responses to extreme floods could be explained by species-specific biological traits. Moreover, density dependence influenced the population dynamics under the context of extreme floods. Accordingly, quasi-extinction risks were highest for species that were simultaneously influenced by biotic and abiotic factors. An understanding of ecological responses to increasing hydrological extremes may be enhanced by recognizing long-term, climatic non-stationarity.


Assuntos
Inundações , Rios , Extinção Biológica , Hidrologia , Dinâmica Populacional
5.
Sci Total Environ ; 806(Pt 1): 150424, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34560459

RESUMO

It is well understood that India is largely exposed to different climate extremes including floods, droughts, heat waves, among others. However, the exposure of co-occurrence of these events is still unknown. The present analysis, first study of its kind, provides the projected changeability of five different compound extremes under three different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). These changes are combined with population projection under SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 scenarios to examine the total exposure in terms of number of persons exposed during 2021-2060 (T1) and 2061-2100 (T2). Here, the outputs from thirteen GCMs are used under CMIP6 experiment. The findings from the study show that all the compound extremes are expected to increase in future under all the emission scenarios being greater in case of SSP5-8.5. The population exposure is highest (2.51- to 4.96-fold as compared to historical) under SSP3-7.0 scenario (2021-2100 i.e., T1 and T2) in case of coincident heat waves and droughts compound extreme. The total exposure in Central Northeast India is projected to be the highest while Hilly Regions are likely to have the lowest exposure in future. The increase in the exposure is mainly contributed from climate change, population growth and their interaction depending on different kinds of compound extremes. The findings would help in devising sustainable policy strategies to climate mitigation and adaptation.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Inundações , Secas , Previsões , Índia
6.
Sci Total Environ ; 806(Pt 1): 150442, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34563910

RESUMO

Glacial lakes in the Himalayas are widely distributed. Since 1900, more than 100 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have originated in the region, causing approximately 7000 deaths and considerable economic losses. Identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) is considered the first step in assessing GLOF risks. In this study, a more thorough inventory of PDGLs was presented that included numerous small-sized glacial lakes (<0.1 km2) that were generally neglected in the Himalayas for decades. Moreover, the PDGL evaluation system was improved in response to several deficiencies, such as the selection of assessment factors, which are sometimes arbitrary without a solid scientific basis. We designed an optimality experiment to select the best combination of assessment factors from 57 factors to identify PDGLs. Based on the experiments on both drained and non-drained glacial lakes in the Sunkoshi Basin, eastern Himalayas, five assessment factors were determined to be the best combination: the mean slope of the parent glacier, the potential for mass movement into the lake, the mean slope of moraine dams, the watershed area, and the lake perimeter, corresponding to the GLOF triggers for ice avalanches, rockfalls and landslides, dam instability, heavy precipitation or other liquid inflows, and lake characteristics, respectively. We then applied the best combination of assessment factors to the 1650 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.02 km2 in the Himalayas. We identified 207 glacial lakes as very high-hazard and 345 as high-hazard. It is noteworthy that in various GLOF susceptibility evaluation scenarios with different assessment factors, weighting schemes, and classification approaches, similar results for glacial lakes with high outburst potential have been obtained. The results provided here can be used as benchmark data to assess the GLOF risks for local communities.


Assuntos
Camada de Gelo , Lagos , Inundações
7.
Sci Total Environ ; 803: 150065, 2022 Jan 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34525713

RESUMO

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Desastres , Adaptação Fisiológica , Inundações , Humanos , Elevação do Nível do Mar
8.
Sci Total Environ ; 804: 150039, 2022 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34520916

RESUMO

Mountainous regions are highly hazardous, and these hazards often lead to loss of human life. The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), like many mountainous regions, is the site of multiple and overlapping natural hazards, but the distribution of multi-hazard risk and the populations exposed to it are poorly understood. Here, we present high-resolution transboundary models describing susceptibility to floods, landslides, and wildfires to understand population exposure to multi-hazard risk across the HKH. These models are created from historical remotely sensed data and hazard catalogs by the maximum entropy (Maxent) machine learning technique. Our results show that human settlements in the HKH are disproportionately concentrated in areas of high multi-hazard risk. In contrast, low-hazard areas are disproportionately unpopulated. Nearly half of the population in the region lives in areas that are highly susceptible to more than one hazard. Warm low-altitude foothill areas with perennially moist soils were identified as highly susceptible to multiple hazards. This area comprises only 31% of the study region, but is home to 49% of its population. The results also show that areas susceptible to multiple hazards are also major corridors of current migration and urban expansion, suggesting that current rates and patterns of urbanization will continue to put more people at risk. This study establishes that the population in the HKH is concentrated in areas susceptible to multiple hazards and suggests that current patterns of human movement will continue to increase exposure to multi-hazards in the HKH.


Assuntos
Inundações , Incêndios Florestais , Humanos
9.
J Hazard Mater ; 421: 126691, 2022 01 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34315022

RESUMO

While it is well recognized that the frequency and intensity of flood events are increasing worldwide, the environmental, economic, and societal consequences of remobilization and distribution of pollutants during flood events are not widely recognized. Loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and monetary cleanup costs associated with floods are important direct effects. However, there is a lack of attention towards the indirect effects of pollutants that are remobilized and redistributed during such catastrophic flood events, particularly considering the known toxic effects of substances present in flood-prone areas. The global examination of floods caused by a range of extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall, tsunamis, extra- and tropical storms) and subsequent distribution of sediment-bound pollutants are needed to improve interdisciplinary investigations. Such examinations will aid in the remediation and management action plans necessary to tackle issues of environmental pollution from flooding. River basin-wide and coastal lowland action plans need to balance the opposing goals of flood retention, catchment conservation, and economical use of water.


Assuntos
Poluentes Ambientais , Inundações , Saúde Ambiental , Humanos , Rios
10.
Sci Total Environ ; 805: 150123, 2022 Jan 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34537701

RESUMO

Studies on the influence of hydrodynamic conditions on anthropogenic microfiber (MF) and microplastic (MP) distributions in freshwater environments are sparse. In this study, we evaluated the influence of urbanisation gradient on the spatial variability of MFs and MPs. Temporal variability was also assessed by comparing the concentrations and fluxes of MFs and MPs under low flow conditions with those during the January-February 2018 flood event. For each period, Seine river water was collected upstream and downstream of Greater Paris and filtered through an 80 µm net at three different sampling sites. MFs were counted using a stereomicroscope, while MPs were analysed using micro-Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy coupled with siMPle analysis software. The highest concentrations of MFs and MPs were reported at the furthest downstream sites during both periods. However, high water flowrates and urbanisation gradient did not significantly impact MF and MP concentrations, sizes, or polymer distributions. The median MF and MP concentrations were 2.6 and 15.5 items/L and their interquartile ranges were 1.6 and 4.9 items/L (n = 10), respectively, illustrating relatively stable concentrations in spite of the urbanisation gradient and variations in the flowrate. In contrast to the concentration, size, and polymer distribution characteristics, MP mass fluxes were strongly affected by river flow. MF and MP fluxes show increases in the number and mass of particles from upstream to downstream. The downstream site presents high MP mass fluxes, which range between 924 and 1675 tonnes/year. These results may indicate significant MP inputs from the Paris Megacity through wastewater treatment plant effluents and untreated stormwater. The January-February 2018 flood event, which represented 14.5% of the year (in terms of time), contributed 40% of the yearly MP mass fluxes. Thus, flood events contribute strongly to MP fluxes.


Assuntos
Microplásticos , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Monitoramento Ambiental , Inundações , Plásticos , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análise
11.
Environ Monit Assess ; 193(12): 784, 2021 Nov 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34755254

RESUMO

The influences of climate change on the features of extreme rainfall events have become unprecedented that needs improved understanding at all levels for planning effective management strategies of the potential risks. This study aims to assess the potential influences of climate change on extreme rainfall characteristics in flood-vulnerable city of Adama. Daily precipitation records of 1967-2016 and projection of global circulation models (GCMs): CanESM2 and HadCM3 for 2021-2070 were disaggregated into shorter time resolutions using the Hyetos model. Gumbel type I probability distribution and power-regression model ([Formula: see text] were used for deducing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and for describing their functions, respectively. The extreme rainfall intensity of the historical and future periods for a range of storm durations and return periods were compared and contrasted. A close agreement is obtained between the observed and the modeled rainfall intensity with high values of coefficient of determination (> 0.996) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (> 0.850). Besides, statistically significant (p < 0.05) direct linear relationship is found between the return periods and the coefficient parameter of the IDF models. Moreover, the intensity of extreme precipitation over 2021-2070 in Adama city would increase up to 49.5%, depending on storm duration and return period considered. This could have consequences of the way the city's drainage infrastructures are designed, operated, and sustained. Hence, flood-prone areas should be recognized in order to formulate effective strategies for mitigation and adaption of potential impacts. The standards for designing future drainage infrastructures should also be updated aiming to reflect the effects of climatic change.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Inundações , Monitoramento Ambiental , Etiópia , Modelos Teóricos
12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34770118

RESUMO

The identification of vulnerable people and places to flood is crucial for effective disaster risk management. Here, we combine flood hazard and social vulnerability index to capture the potential risk of flood. In this paper, Nanjing was taken as the case study to explore the spatial pattern of social vulnerability towards flood at the community scale by developing an index system. Based on the flood risk results of ArcSWAT, the risk of flood disaster in Nanjing was evaluated. The results show the following. (1) Social vulnerability exhibits a central-peripheral pattern in general, which means that the social vulnerability degree is high in the central city and decreases gradually to the suburbs. (2) The susceptibility to flood disaster has a similar circle-layer pattern that is the highest in the urban centre, lower in the exurban areas, and the lowest in the suburb areas. (3) By using the GIS-based zoning approach, communities are classified into four types by comprehensively considering their flood susceptibility and social vulnerability. The spatial pattern is explained, and policy recommendation for reducing flood risk is provided for each type of community. The research has important reference significance for identifying the spatial pattern of social vulnerability to flood and then formulating targeted adaptation countermeasures.


Assuntos
Desastres , Inundações , China , Planejamento de Cidades , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Humanos
13.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(21)2021 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34770466

RESUMO

Flood control and water resources management require monitoring the water level in rivers and streams. Water level measurement techniques increasingly consider image processing procedures. Most of the systems use a staff gauge to support the waterline detection. However, these techniques can fail when applied to urban stream channels due to water undulation, debris on the water surface, and traces of rain captured by the camera, and other adverse effects on images can be quite dramatic on the results. The importance of considering these effects is that they are usually associated with the variation in the water level with the occurrence of rain. The technique proposed in this work uses a larger detection zone to minimize the effects that tend to obstruct the waterline. The developed system uses an infrared camera to operate during the day and night. Images acquired in different weather conditions helped to evaluate the proposed technique. The water level measurement accuracy was about 1.8 cm for images taken during the day and 2.8 cm for images taken at night. During short periods of heavy rain, the accuracy was 2.6 cm for the daytime and 3.4 cm for the nighttime. Infrared lighting can improve detection accuracy at night. The developed technique provides good accuracy under different weather conditions by combining information from various detection positions to deal with waterline detection issues.


Assuntos
Rios , Água , Inundações , Humanos , Chuva , Tempo (Meteorologia)
14.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(22)2021 Nov 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34833583

RESUMO

Automatic flood detection may be an important component for triggering damage control systems and minimizing the risk of social or economic impacts caused by flooding. Riverside images from regular cameras are a widely available resource that can be used for tackling this problem. Nevertheless, state-of-the-art neural networks, the most suitable approach for this type of computer vision task, are usually resource-consuming, which poses a challenge for deploying these models within low-capability Internet of Things (IoT) devices with unstable internet connections. In this work, we propose a deep neural network (DNN) architecture pruning algorithm capable of finding a pruned version of a given DNN within a user-specified memory footprint. Our results demonstrate that our proposed algorithm can find a pruned DNN model with the specified memory footprint with little to no degradation of its segmentation performance. Finally, we show that our algorithm can be used in a memory-constraint wireless sensor network (WSN) employed to detect flooding events of urban rivers, and the resulting pruned models have competitive results compared with the original models.


Assuntos
Internet das Coisas , Algoritmos , Computadores , Inundações , Redes Neurais de Computação
15.
Geospat Health ; 16(2)2021 Oct 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34726034

RESUMO

Every year Bangladesh faces enormous damages due to flooding. Facing these damages the Government adopts various recovery approaches. However, the psychological dimension of any disaster is generally overlooked in disaster management. Researchers have found that the spatial distribution of post-disaster mental health can help the authorities to apply recovery procedures where they are most needed. For this research, Posttraumatic Stress Checklist (PCL-5), Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) were used to estimate posttraumatic stress, major depressive disorder and anxiety following three episodes of severe floods in 2017 that affected at least 8 million people. To better understand the spatial pattern of psychological vulnerability and reach a comprehensive scenario of post-disaster mental health, Moran's I was applied for spatial autocorrelation and Pearson's correlation and regression analysis for a study of the relationship between the psychological aspects. It was found that psychological vulnerability showed a spatial clustering pattern and that there was a strong positive linear relationship among psychological aspects in the study area. This research might help to adopt disaster management policies that consider the psychological dimension and spatial distribution of various psychological aspects to identify areas characterized by high vulnerability and risk so that they can be reached without delay.


Assuntos
Transtorno Depressivo Maior , Desastres , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Inundações , Humanos , Saúde Mental , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/epidemiologia
16.
Environ Monit Assess ; 193(11): 692, 2021 Oct 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34609643

RESUMO

Understanding of flood dynamics forms the basis for the leading water resource management and flood risk mitigation practices. In particular, accurate prediction of river flow during massive flood events and capturing the hysteretic behavior of river stage-discharge are among the key interests in hydrological research. The literature demonstrates that data-driven models are significant in identifying complex and hidden relationships among dependent variables, without considering explicit physical schemes. In this regard, we aim to discover the extent to which data-driven models can recognize the hidden relationships among different hydrological variables, in order to generate accurate predictions of the river flow. A secondary aim involves the detection of whether data-driven models can digest the internal features of training inputs to extrapolate severe flood records beyond the training domain. To achieve these aims, we developed a recurrent neural network (RNN) model of two hidden layers to capture the hidden relationships among the inputs, and investigated the model's predictive capability using quantitative and qualitative analyses. The quantitative analysis comprised of a comparison between model predictions, and another set of precise independent records obtained through an advanced hydroacoustic system for reference. A qualitative approach was adopted to visualize the hysteretic behavior of the stage-discharge relations of the model records, with the high-resolution records of the hydroacoustic system. The findings display the potential of data-driven models for accurately predicting river flow. Consequently, the qualitative analysis revealed moderate correlations of stage-discharge loops as compared to the reference records. Additionally, the model was tested against severe destructive flood records generated from the East Asian monsoon and tropical cyclones. Its findings suggest that data-driven models cannot extrapolate new features beyond their training dataset. Overall, this study discusses the competence of RNNs in providing reliable and accurate river flow predictions during floods.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Inundações , Hidrologia , Redes Neurais de Computação , Rios
17.
Environ Monit Assess ; 193(11): 721, 2021 Oct 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34648091

RESUMO

Past studies indicate that increasing temperatures would accelerate the Earth's water cycle and in turn would increase the evaporation rate. Increased evaporation will result in more frequent and intense storms; hence, most researchers focus on climate change and its effect on Earth, particularly the precipitation. In the last two decades, the Udaipur district, India, faces water scarcity and flooding situations twice. The present study focuses on the prediction of rainfall using the most advanced soft computing techniques (SCT) such as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), classification and regression trees (CART), and gene expression programming (GEP) in India's Udaipur district. The performance of these SCT was evaluated to test the capability to predict the rainfall. Results showed that the MARS model for rainfall prediction showed better performance than the GEP model.


Assuntos
Monitoramento Ambiental , Inundações , Mudança Climática , Índia
18.
BMC Pediatr ; 21(1): 462, 2021 10 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34670533

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Disasters can have deep physical and psychological impact among survivors. An extraordinary southwest monsoon has unleashed floods and landslides in Kerala state in 2018. Adolescents are more vulnerable to psychological impairment after a disaster and trauma during initial stages of life can etch an indelible signature in the individual's development and may lead to future disorders. OBJECTIVES: 1. To screen for PTSD and associated factors among adolescents 8 months post floods in selected schools in flood-affected areas of Alleppey district of Kerala 2. To compare the proportion of adolescents screened positive for PTSD in public and private schools. METHODOLOGY: A 3-month, Cross-sectional study was done among 670 adolescents in private and public schools using stratified sampling in Alleppey district. The study tool included a structured questionnaire that collected information on sociodemographics, flood-related variables, Trauma screening questionnaire and academic performance. RESULTS: The mean age of the participants was 16.03 ± 0.73 years with almost equal gender distribution. One-third of students reported flood-related damage to house/property, and a few lost their pets. Nearly 50% of the students reported that they still re-experience and get upsetting memories about flood events. The prevalence of probable PTSD noted to be 34.9%. We observed that 31% of students in public school screened positive for PTSD compared to 38.8% of private school students. (odds ratio = 1.409, CI 1.024-1.938). Male gender (Odds ratio = 1.503, CI 1.093-2.069), higher age (Odds ratio = 1.701, CI 1.120-2.585), damage during floods (Odds ratio = 2.566, CI 1.814-3.630), presence of morbidity (Odds ratio = 3.568, CI 1.888-6.743), camp stay (Odds ratio = 3.788, CI 2.364-6.067) and loss of pets (Odds ratio = 3.932, CI 2.019-7.657) were the factors significantly associated with PTSD. We noted a deterioration in academic performance in 45.9% of students who screened positive for PTSD. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: High prevalence of stress disorder highlights the need for early identification and intervention for PTSD and including trained counsellors as a part of the disaster management team in future.


Assuntos
Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos , Adolescente , Estudos Transversais , Inundações , Humanos , Índia/epidemiologia , Masculino , Instituições Acadêmicas , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/diagnóstico , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/epidemiologia , Transtornos de Estresse Pós-Traumáticos/etiologia
19.
R I Med J (2013) ; 104(9): 14-19, 2021 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34705901

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Climate change is causing increasingly frequent extreme weather events. This pilot study demonstrates a GIS-based approach for assessing risk to electricity-dependent patients of a coastal academic medical center during future hurricanes.  Methods: A single-center retrospective chart review was conducted and the spatial distribution of patients with prescriptions for nebulized medications was mapped. Census blocks at risk of flooding in future hurricanes were identified; summary statistics describing proportion of patients at risk are reported.  Results: Out of a local population of 2,101 patients with prescriptions for nebulized medications in the preceding year, 521 (24.8%) were found to live in a hurricane flood zone.  Conclusions: Healthcare systems can assess risk to climate-vulnerable patient populations using publicly available data in combination with hospital medical records. The approach described here could be applied to a variety of environmental hazards and can inform institutional and individual disaster preparedness efforts.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Inundações , Eletricidade , Humanos , Projetos Piloto , Estudos Retrospectivos
20.
R I Med J (2013) ; 104(9): 55-59, 2021 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34705910

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is heightening both long-term adverse risks to human health and the immediate-term risk of injuries and illness following climate-related disaster events that are becoming more frequent and severe. In addition to its direct health effects, climate change poses new threats to the nation's health care infrastructure - with potential to negatively impact healthcare capacity amidst increasing demand - through risks of flooding, wind damage, heat stress, power outages, and other physical harm to facilities. The typical Hazard Vulnerability Analyses conducted annually by hospitals use historical data to assess risks; these analyses are likely now inadequate for future preparation due to the impact of climate change. This article describes one approach to how healthcare leaders can better assess both near-term and long-term risks due to climate change, to mitigate against unprecedented but foreseeable threats. METHODS: In our large health system in the US Northeast, a process was undertaken to gather updated data and expert projections to forecast threats faced by each of our facilities in different climate-related disaster scenarios. Hazards examined in our setting included precipitation-based and coastal flooding events, heat waves, and high wind events, in addition to seismic events. Probabilities of occurrence and extents of different hazards were projected for the near term (2030) and the long term (2070). We then performed detailed vulnerability analyses for each facility with the predicted amount of rainfall, storm surge, heat stress, and windspeed, in collaboration with leaders at each facility. This was followed by a process to understand what would be needed to mitigate each vulnerability along with the associated costs. Ultimately, a cost/benefit analysis was performed - incorporating the relative likelihood and impact of different scenarios - to decide which improvement projects to embark on immediately, and what to defer and/or incorporate into future building plans. RESULTS: In our system, all facilities were vulnerable to the effects of increased temperatures, and multiple hospitals were noted to be vulnerable to extreme precipitation, storm surge, and high winds. Specific damaging scenarios identified included flooding of basements and building infrastructure spaces, water entry through windows during high winds, and overheating of power systems during heat waves. Potential solutions included improved power redundancy for cooling systems, enhancements to roof and window systems, and the acquisition of deployable flood barriers. We identified four categories for prioritization of action based on projected impact: 1) priorities in need of urgent mitigation, 2) priorities in need of investigative study for medium-term mitigation, 3) priorities for planned capital improvement projects, and 4) priorities to integrate into new facility construction. DISCUSSION: While the specific risks and vulnerabilities for each facility will differ according to its location and structural features, the approach we describe is broadly applicable. By forecasting specific risks, diagnosing vulnerabilities, developing potential solutions, and using a risk/benefit approach to decision making, hospitals can work toward protecting facilities and patients in the face of potential climate related natural disasters in an economically sound manner.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Desastres , Atenção à Saúde , Inundações , Programas Governamentais , Humanos
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