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1.
Food Chem ; 366: 130633, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34332421

RESUMO

The global market for imported, high-quality priced foods has grown dramatically in the last decade, as consumers become more conscious of food originating from around the world. Many countries require the origin label of food to protect consumers need about true characteristics and origin. Regulatory authorities are looking for an extended and updated list of the analytical techniques for verification of authentic oils and to support law implementation. This review aims to introduce the efforts made using various analytical tools in combination with the multivariate analysis for the verification of the geographical origin of oils. The popular analytical tools have been discussed, and scientometric assessment that underlines research trends in geographical authentication and preferred journals used for dissemination has been indicated. Overall, we believe this article will be a good guideline for food industries and food quality control authority to assist in the selection of appropriate methods to authenticate oils.


Assuntos
Alimentos , Óleos Vegetais , Qualidade dos Alimentos , Geografia , Análise Multivariada
2.
J Med Virol ; 94(1): 393-398, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34436792

RESUMO

Dengue virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 coexist in dengue-endemic countries; therefore, the adoption of preventive measures is essential to control the spread of both viruses. We conducted an ecological study to compare the temporal patterns of the incidence of dengue before and during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Peru. A time-series analysis comparing the incidence of dengue using a Student's t test with variance correction was performed. Poisson regression was applied to determine the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of dengue before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The incidence of dengue was found to be increased in all endemic regions of Peru during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the highest incidences registered in Ica (IRR = 90.14), Huánuco (IRR = 38.6), and Ucayali (IRR = 23.78), with the exception of Piura (IRR = 0.83). The highest increases in the number of dengue cases per million inhabitants were in Ucayali (393.38), Tumbes (233.19), Ica (166.08), and Loreto (129.93). The gradient of dengue cases was positive in all endemic regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of dengue cases per million increased during the COVID-19 pandemic throughout Peru and in several endemic regions, with the exception of Piura.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , Dengue/epidemiologia , Vírus da Dengue/isolamento & purificação , Geografia , Humanos , Incidência , Peru/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/isolamento & purificação , Doenças Transmitidas por Vetores/epidemiologia
3.
Food Chem ; 371: 131063, 2022 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34555703

RESUMO

This work aims the study chemometric methods for the classification of the origin of coffee samples. Samples of finely pulverized coffee grains were analyzed by synchronous molecular fluorescence spectroscopy to carry out the classification. The spectral data of the samples were obtained in triplicate in two offsets: 10 nm (with emission wavelengths from 240 nm to 600 nm) and 40 nm (from 240 nm to 560 nm), all with 1 nm resolution. Different strategies were performed using the spectra obtained with the offsets of 10 nm and 40 nm and fused data at mid-level (10 nm + 40 nm). The performances of linear and nonlinear methods were compared, the best results were obtained from the raw data from the fusion at low-level of the 10 nm and 40 nm offset spectra with the Pareto optimization criterion.


Assuntos
Café , Geografia , Espectrometria de Fluorescência
4.
Food Chem ; 369: 130955, 2022 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34488129

RESUMO

In countries like South Korea and the USA, origin labeling of shiitake grown using imported Chinese-inoculated medium is an issue. Therefore, we evaluated the use of compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) for the accurate identification of the geographical origin of shiitake (Korean, Chinese-inoculated medium, and Chinese); Chinese-inoculated medium shiitake were cultivated in Korea using inoculated sawdust medium from China. The CSIA-discriminant model showed an overall accuracy of 100% in the geographical classification of the original set and 96.4% for the cross-validated set. Glutamate and aspartate δ15N values were the most important variables for differentiating shiitake based on their origins. Compared to that observed upon using the bulk stable isotope analysis, the CSIA model was associated with significantly improved predictability of origin identification. Our findings elucidate the importance of isotope signatures in developing a reliable origin labeling method for shiitake cultured on the sawdust medium for the global market.


Assuntos
Isótopos de Carbono , Isótopos de Carbono/análise , China , Geografia , Projetos Piloto , República da Coreia
5.
J Environ Manage ; 301: 113931, 2022 Jan 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34731950

RESUMO

"Cruising" is a concept which designates a practice of social interaction that consists of anonymous sexual encounters, mostly among homosexuals, in open and/or closed public spaces. Coastal dunes and beaches are examples of open public spaces where these sexual practices are widely carried out, to the extent that the so-called "Four S's" (Sand, Sun, Sea and Sex) have even been defined in the literature. Abundant studies have addressed the topic of relationships between tourism and sex, but few have analyzed the consequences of these practices on the natural environment, especially when the spaces where these activities take place are protected areas. In this work, the spatial distribution and the environmental impacts of cruising in a protected coastal dune system are characterized and assessed. There is no intention to criticize the actions of some of the LGBTI community. The sex spots (places for sexual encounters) were located and inventoried by fieldwork. The dimensions or internal distribution, as well as the sexual use, geographical position, vegetation cover and attributes, and environmental impacts or lack of management actions were examined and collated in a geographic information system (GIS). The results show that the distribution of the 298 identified sex spots, which occupy an area of 5763.85 m2, is related to the distance to authorized paths in the protected area, to the presence of bushy and dense vegetation, and to stabilized aeolian landforms or ones formed by vegetation (nebkhas). The bigger the sex spot, the higher the number of people who made use of it, the greater the likelihood of it being a low-lying area covered by vegetation, and the larger the amount of waste. The activities developed in these sex spots impact directly on the aeolian landforms and on eight native plant species, three of which are endemic species.


Assuntos
Praias , Ecossistema , Comportamento Sexual , Meio Ambiente , Geografia , Humanos , Plantas
6.
Talanta ; 237: 122973, 2022 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34736696

RESUMO

A weighted twin support vector machine (wTWSVM) was proposed as a potential discriminant analysis tool and its utility was evaluated for near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic identification of the geographical origins of 12 different agricultural products including black soybean and garlic. In the wTWSVM, weights were applied on each variable in the sample spectra to highlight detailed NIR spectral features and the optimal weights to minimize the discrimination error were iteratively searched. Then, the weighted spectra were employed to determine the samples' geographical origins using a TWSVM adopting two non-parallel hyperplanes for the discrimination. For the performance evaluation, SVM, TWSVM, and wTWSVM were separately used for the two-group discriminations and their accuracies were comparatively analyzed. When the SVM and TWSVM accuracies were compared, the improvements by using the TWSVM were significant (95% confidence level) for 10 out of the 12 products. Moreover, the accuracy improvements with the wTWSVM against SVM were significant for all the 12 products. In the case of the TWSVM-wTWSVM accuracy comparison, the improvements by the wTWSVM were also significant for 10 products, thereby demonstrating superior discrimination performance of wTWSVM. Based on the overall results, the wTWSVM could be a potential chemometric tool for discriminant analysis and expandable to other areas such as spectroscopy-based biomedical disease diagnosis and forensic analysis.


Assuntos
Espectroscopia de Luz Próxima ao Infravermelho , Máquina de Vetores de Suporte , Agricultura , Análise Discriminante , Geografia , Análise dos Mínimos Quadrados
8.
Sensors (Basel) ; 21(21)2021 Nov 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34770701

RESUMO

Rapid and accurate extraction of water bodies from high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images is of great value for water resource management, water quality monitoring and natural disaster emergency response. For traditional water body extraction methods, it is difficult to select image texture and features, the shadows of buildings and other ground objects are in the same spectrum as water bodies, the existing deep convolutional neural network is difficult to train, the consumption of computing resources is large, and the methods cannot meet real-time requirements. In this paper, a water body extraction method based on lightweight MobileNetV2 is proposed and applied to multisensor high-resolution remote sensing images, such as GF-2, WorldView-2 and UAV orthoimages. This method was validated in two typical complex geographical scenes: water bodies for farmland irrigation, which have a broken shape and long and narrow area and are surrounded by many buildings in towns and villages; and water bodies in mountainous areas, which have undulating topography, vegetation coverage and mountain shadows all over. The results were compared with those of the support vector machine, random forest and U-Net models and also verified by generalization tests and the influence of spatial resolution changes. First, the results show that the F1-score and Kappa coefficients of the MobileNetV2 model extracting water bodies from three different high-resolution images were 0.75 and 0.72 for GF-2, 0.86 and 0.85 for Worldview-2 and 0.98 and 0.98 for UAV, respectively, which are higher than those of traditional machine learning models and U-Net. Second, the training time, number of parameters and calculation amount of the MobileNetV2 model were much lower than those of the U-Net model, which greatly improves the water body extraction efficiency. Third, in other more complex surface areas, the MobileNetV2 model still maintained relatively high accuracy of water body extraction. Finally, we tested the effects of multisensor models and found that training with lower and higher spatial resolution images combined can be beneficial, but that using just lower resolution imagery is ineffective. This study provides a reference for the efficient automation of water body classification and extraction under complex geographical environment conditions and can be extended to water resource investigation, management and planning.


Assuntos
Redes Neurais de Computação , Tecnologia de Sensoriamento Remoto , Geografia , Aprendizado de Máquina , Máquina de Vetores de Suporte
9.
Int J Public Health ; 66: 617053, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34744579

RESUMO

Objectives: We examine the association between perceived discrimination, mental health, social support, and support for violent radicalization (VR) in young adults from three locations across two countries: Montréal and Toronto, Canada, and Boston, United States. A secondary goal is to test the moderating role of location. Methods: A total of 791 young adults between the ages of 18 and 30, drawn from the Somali Youth longitudinal study and a Canada-based study of college students, participated in the study. We used multivariate linear regression to assess the association between scores on the Radical Intentions Scale (RIS) with demographic characteristics, anxiety, depression, social support, and discrimination. Results: In the full sample, discrimination, age, and gender were associated with RIS scores. When we examined moderation effects by location, RIS scores were associated with depression only in Montréal, and with social support (negatively) and discrimination in Toronto. None of the variables were significant in Boston. Conclusion: These findings suggest that an understanding of risk and protective factors for support of VR may be context-dependent. Further research should take into consideration local/regional differences.


Assuntos
Violência , Adolescente , Adulto , Boston , Canadá , Feminino , Geografia , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Fatores de Proteção , Fatores de Risco , Violência/psicologia , Violência/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto Jovem
10.
Geospat Health ; 16(2)2021 11 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34763415

RESUMO

Longevity is a near-universal human aspiration that can affect moral progress and economic development at the social level. In rapidly developing China, questions about the geographical distribution and environmental factors of longevity phenomenon need to be answered more clearly. This study calculated the longevity index (LI), longevity index for females (LIF) and longevity index for males (LIM) based on the percentage of the long-lived population among the total number of elderly people to investigate regional and gender characteristics at the county level in China. A new multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model and four possible geographical environmental factors were applied to explore environmental effects. The results indicate that the LIs of 2838 counties ranged from 1.3% to 16.3%, and the distribution showed obvious regional and gender differences. In general, the LI was high in the East and low in the West, and the LIF was higher than the LIM in 2614 counties (92.1%). The MGWR model performed well explaining that geographical environmental factors, including topographic features, vegetation conditions, human social activity and air pollution factors have a variable influence on longevity at different spatial scales and in different regions. These findings enrich our understanding of the spatial distribution, gender differences and geographical environmental effects on longevity in China, which provides an important reference for people interested in the variations in the associations between different geographical factors.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar , Regressão Espacial , Idoso , Poluição do Ar/análise , China/epidemiologia , Feminino , Geografia , Humanos , Longevidade , Masculino
12.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao ; 32(8): 2791-2799, 2021 Aug.
Artigo em Chinês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34664452

RESUMO

The variations in plant growth of 32 Quercus acutissima provenances in three sites (Yongfeng, Jiangxi; Kaihua, Zhejiang and Chuzhou, Anhui) were studied. The AMMI model was used to analyze the stability of growth traits and to select the best provenances. The results showed that tree height, diameter at breast (ground) height, and aboveground biomass (AGB) per individual of the provenances were significantly different in the three sites. The AGB per individual was significantly affected by site, provenance, and the interaction of provenance × site. Site had the greatest impact on the variation of tree growth, followed by provenance and provenance × site. The growth performance of these superior provenances in different sites varied greatly in the seedling stage (1-3 years old) and young forest stage (4-11 years old). Based on the AGB per individual in the 11st year, the best provenances were selected in each site. Seven superior provenances of Yongfeng, Jiangxi were selected, with the average AGB per individual increased by 15.6%-57.8% compared with the ave-rage value. Seven superior provenances of Kaihua, Zhejiang were selected, with the average AGB per individual increased by 19.2%-45.2%. Eight superior provenances of Chuzhou, Anhui were selected,with the average AGB per individual increased by 24.9%-63.3%. According to the growth performance and stability, four superior provenances were selected to develop short-rotation charcoal forest cultivation across three sites, with an average AGB per individual of 36.55 kg and an average stability parameter of 0.97.


Assuntos
Quercus , China , Florestas , Geografia , Fenótipo , Quercus/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Árvores/crescimento & desenvolvimento
13.
Open Biol ; 11(10): 210213, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34637655

RESUMO

The etiopathogenesis of COVID-19 and its differential geographic spread suggest some populations are apparently 'less affected' through many host-related factors that involve angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) protein, which is also the entry receptor for SARS-CoV-2. The role of ACE2 has been well studied in COVID-19 but not in the context of malaria and COVID-19. We have previously suggested how malaria might intersect with COVID-19 through ACE2 mutation and here we evaluate the currently available data that could provide a link between the two diseases. Based on the existing global and Indian data on malaria, COVID-19 and the suggested ACE2 mutation, the association could not be examined robustly, neither accepting nor refuting the suggested hypothesis. We strongly recommend targeted evaluation of this hypothesis through carefully designed robust molecular epidemiological studies.


Assuntos
Enzima de Conversão de Angiotensina 2/genética , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Malária/complicações , Malária/epidemiologia , Alelos , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Variação Genética , Geografia , Saúde Global , Humanos , Índia , Mutação
14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34639426

RESUMO

As the urbanization and industrialization of China's urban agglomerations reach increasingly high levels, residents are voicing a growing demand for improved green public sport and recreational space. The coordination of ecological land restoration (ELR) and recreational use at the regional level is therefore urgent. This study demonstrates the spatiotemporal evolution of coupled ELR and the recreational use of ecological land (RUoEL) in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration based on spatial interpretation, remote sensing mapping, and spatial statistical analysis. A geographical and temporally weighted regression is used to test the spatial effects of the RUoEL on the evolution of the ELR patterns. The results show that the RUoEL (mainly greenways and ecological recreational spaces) and ELR exert a certain degree of coupled spatial characteristics, and that the former significantly impacts the latter. These spatial differences are more notable in areas with high-level ecological recreational spaces, or which are located near densely populated built-up areas. Recreation-oriented ELR is therefore relatively easy to develop in these areas. The results provide important guidelines for the development of ecosystem service patterns in urban agglomerations that include the coexistence of ELR and recreational use, which will strengthen the academic support for regional ELR planning and improve public health.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Rios , Causalidade , China , Cidades , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Geografia , Urbanização
15.
An Acad Bras Cienc ; 93(suppl 4): e20210624, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34706011

RESUMO

The similarity between parasites communities' decay with distance and its analysis may explain important ecological process such host dispersion. Patagonia is inhabited by two armadillo species, Chaetophractus villosus and Zaedyus pichiy. In this study we describe and analyze the variation on helminth fauna of these armadillos in Patagonia compared with northern localities described in previous studies. A total of 49 armadillos were collected in Patagonia. Quantitative descriptors of parasite ecology were calculated and community structure of helminths was analyzed following the central-satellite species hypothesis. The parasite richness in Patagonia decreases almost 50% in both armadillos. Zaedyus pichiy present the same central species in Patagonia as in northern localities. For C. villosus central-satellite species analysis could not be applied. The loss of some helminths in Z. pichiy could be the result of lower temperatures or the absence of intermediate arthropods hosts. But in C. villosus the absence of some helminths with Patagonian distribution could be explained by its recent dispersion in Patagonia. Trichohelix tuberculata still being the only helminth in C. villosus introduced population of Tierra del Fuego.


Assuntos
Helmintos , Parasitos , Animais , Tatus , Geografia
16.
BMJ Glob Health ; 6(10)2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34697085

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: About 96.3 million children and adolescents aged 0-19 years reside in Nigeria, comprising 54% of the population. Without adequate access to surgery for commonly treatable diseases, many face disability and increased risk of mortality. Due to this population's unique perioperative needs, increasing access to paediatric surgical care requires a situational evaluation of the distribution of paediatric surgeons and anaesthesiologists. This study's aim is to identify the percentage of Nigerian youth who reside within 2 hours of paediatric surgical care at the state and national level. METHODS: The Association of Paediatric Surgeons of Nigeria and the Nigeria Society of Anaesthetists provided surgical and anaesthesia workforce data by state. Health facilities with paediatric surgeons were converted to point locations and integrated with ancillary geospatial layers and population estimates from 2016 and 2017. Catchment areas of 2 hours of travel time around a facility were deployed as the benchmark indicator to establish timely access. RESULTS: Across Nigeria's 36 states and Federal Capital Territory, the percentage of Nigeria's 0-19 population residing within 2 hours of a health facility with a paediatric surgical and anaesthesia workforce ranges from less than 2% to 22.7%-30.5%. In 3 states, only 2.1%-4.8% of the population can access a facility within 2 hours, 12 have 4.9%-13.8%, and 8 have 13.9%-22.6%. CONCLUSION: There is significant variation across Nigerian states regarding access to surgical care, with 69.5%-98% of Nigeria's 0-19 population lacking access. Developing paediatric surgical services in underserved Nigerian states and investing in the training of paediatric surgical and anaesthesia workforce for those states are key components in improving the health of Nigeria's 0-19 population and reducing Nigeria's burden of surgical disease, in line with Nigeria's National Surgical, Obstetrics, Anaesthesia and Nursing Plan.


Assuntos
Geografia , Adolescente , Criança , Feminino , Humanos , Nigéria , Gravidez
17.
Nat Commun ; 12(1): 5851, 2021 10 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34615863

RESUMO

The extent of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in many African countries remains unclear, underlining the need for antibody sero-surveys to assess the cumulative attack rate. Here, we present the results of a cross-sectional sero-survey of a random sample of residents of a health district in Yaounde, Cameroon, conducted from October 14 to November 26, 2020. Among the 971 participants, the test-adjusted seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies was 29·2% (95% CI 24·3-34·1). This is about 322 times greater than the 0.09% nationwide attack rate implied by COVID-19 case counts at the time. Men, obese individuals and those living in large households were significantly more likely to be seropositive, and the majority (64·2% [58·7-69·4]) of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms. Despite the high seroprevalence, most of the population had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2, highlighting the importance of continued measures to control viral spread and quick vaccine deployment to protect the vulnerable.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Antivirais/sangue , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , SARS-CoV-2/imunologia , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , População Urbana , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Camarões/epidemiologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Geografia , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G/sangue , Imunoglobulina M/sangue , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Sexuais , Adulto Jovem
18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34639612

RESUMO

At the end of 2019, the COVID-19 pandemic began to emerge on a global scale, including China, and left deep traces on all societies. The spread of this virus shows remarkable temporal and spatial characteristics. Therefore, analyzing and visualizing the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic are relevant to the current pressing need and have realistic significance. In this article, we constructed a new model based on time-geography to analyze the movement pattern of COVID-19 in Hebei Province. The results show that as time changed COVID-19 presented an obvious dynamic distribution in space. It gradually migrated from the southwest region of Hebei Province to the northeast region. The factors affecting the moving patterns may be the migration and flow of population between and within the province, the economic development level and the development of road traffic of each city. It can be divided into three stages in terms of time. The first stage is the gradual spread of the epidemic, the second is the full spread of the epidemic, and the third is the time and again of the epidemic. Finally, we can verify the accuracy of the model through the standard deviation ellipse and location entropy.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , China/epidemiologia , Cidades , Geografia , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2
19.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 20569, 2021 10 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34663823

RESUMO

The Brazilian Northern region registered a high incidence of COVID-19 cases, particularly in the state of Pará. The present study investigated the risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 in a Brazilian Amazon region of 100,819 cases. An epidemiological, cross-sectional, analytical and demographic study, analyzing data on confirmed cases for COVID-19 available at the Brazilian Ministry of Health's surveillance platform, was conducted. Variables such as, municipalities of residence, age, gender, signs and symptoms, comorbidities were included and associated with COVID-19 cases and outcomes. The spatial distribution was performed using the ArcGIS program. A total of 100,819 cases were evaluated. Overall, patients had the mean age of 42.3 years, were female (51.2%) and with lethality reaching 4.79% of cases. Main symptoms included fever (66.5%), cough (61.9%) and sore throat (39.8%). Regarding comorbidities, most of the patients presented cardiovascular disease (5.1%) and diabetes (4.2%). Neurological disease increased risk of death by nearly 15 times, followed by obesity (5.16 times) and immunodeficiency (5.09 time). The municipalities with the highest incidence rate were Parauapebas, Canaã dos Carajás and Jacareacanga. Similarity between the Lower Amazon, Marajó and Southwest mesoregions of Pará state were observed concerning the highest morbidity rates. The obtained data demonstrated that the majority of cases occurred among young adults, females, with the classic influenza symptoms and chronic diseases. Finally, data suggest that the highest incidences were no longer in the metropolitan region of the state. The higher lethality rate than in Brazil may be associated with the greater impacts of the disease in this Amazonian population, or factors associated with fragile epidemiological surveillance in the notification of cases of cure.


Assuntos
COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Adulto , Área Sob a Curva , Brasil/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , Comorbidade , Tosse/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Coleta de Dados , Feminino , Febre/epidemiologia , Geografia , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise de Regressão , Risco , Fatores de Risco , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto Jovem
20.
PLoS One ; 16(10): e0258332, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34662353

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Disease surveillance and response are critical components of epidemic preparedness. The disease response, in most cases, is a set of reactive measures that follow the outcomes of the disease surveillance. Hence, timely surveillance is a prerequisite for an effective response. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We apply epidemiological soundness criteria in combination with the Latent Influence Point Process and time-to-event models to construct a disease spread network. The network implicitly quantifies the fertility (whether a case leads to secondary cases) and reproduction (number of secondary cases per infectious case) of the cases as well as the size and generations (of the infection chain) of the outbreaks. We test our approach by applying it to historic dengue case data from Australia. Using the data, we empirically confirm that high morbidity relates positively with delay in disease response. Moreover, we identify what constitutes timely surveillance by applying various thresholds of disease response delay to the network and report their impact on case fertility, reproduction, number of generations and ultimately, outbreak size. We observe that enforcing a response delay threshold of 5 days leads to a large average reduction across all parameters (occurrence 87%, reproduction 83%, outbreak size 80% and outbreak generations 47%), whereas extending the threshold to 10 days, in comparison, significantly limits the effectiveness of the response actions. Lastly, we identify the components of the disease surveillance system that can be calibrated to achieve the identified thresholds. CONCLUSION: We identify practically achievable, timely surveillance thresholds (on temporal scale) that lead to an effective response and identify how they can be satisfied. Our approach can be utilized to provide guidelines on spatially and demographically targeted resource allocation for public awareness campaigns as well as to improve diagnostic abilities and turn-around times for the doctors and laboratories involved.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Austrália/epidemiologia , Calibragem , Doenças Transmissíveis/transmissão , Dengue/epidemiologia , Monitoramento Epidemiológico , Geografia , Humanos , Fatores de Tempo
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