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Sci Total Environ ; 865: 161147, 2023 Mar 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36587685


Air pollution is one of the most important problems the world is facing nowadays, adversely affecting public health and causing millions of deaths every year. Particulate matter is a criteria pollutant that has been linked to increased morbidity, as well as all-cause and cause-specific mortality. However, this association remains under-investigated in smaller-size cities in the Eastern Mediterranean, which are also frequently affected by heat waves and dust storms. This study explores the impact of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 µm (PM10) and ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) on mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory) in two coastal cities in the Eastern Mediterranean; Thessaloniki, Greece and Limassol, Cyprus. Generalized additive Poisson models were used to explore overall and gender-specific associations, controlling for long- and short-term patterns, day of week and the effect of weather variables. Moreover, the effect of different lags, season, co-pollutants and dust storms on primary associations was investigated. A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 resulted in 1.10 % (95 % CI: -0.13, 2.34) increase in cardiovascular mortality in Thessaloniki, and in 3.07 % (95 % CI: -0.90, 7.20) increase in all-cause mortality in Limassol on the same day. Additionally, significant positive associations were observed between PM2.5 as well as PM10 and mortality at different lags up to seven days. Interestingly, an association with dust storms was observed only in Thessaloniki, having a protective effect, while the gender-specific analysis revealed significant associations only for the males in both cities. The outcome of this study highlights the need of city- or county-specific public health interventions to address the impact of climate, population lifestyle behaviour and other socioeconomic factors that affect the exposure to air pollution and other synergistic effects that alter the effect of PM on population health.

Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Poluentes Ambientais , Masculino , Humanos , Material Particulado/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluição do Ar/análise , Estações do Ano , Poeira , Mortalidade , Exposição Ambiental/análise
JAMA ; 329(4): 275-276, 2023 01 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36598767


This Medical News article discusses a recent study that investigated the benefits of brief bursts of intense physical activity during daily life.

Exercício Físico , Exercício Físico/fisiologia , Atividade Motora/fisiologia , Fatores de Tempo , Mortalidade
Crit Care Med ; 51(2): 222-230, 2023 Feb 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36661450


OBJECTIVES: All-cause mortality is a common measure of treatment effect in ICU-based randomized clinical trials (RCTs). We sought to understand the performance characteristics of a mortality endpoint by evaluating its temporal course, responsiveness to differential treatment effects, and impact when used as an outcome measure in trials of acute illness. DATA SOURCES: We searched OVID Medline for RCTs published from 1990 to 2018. STUDY SELECTION: We reviewed RCTs that had randomized greater than or equal to 100 patients, were published in one of five high-impact general medical or eight critical care journals, and reported mortality at two or more distinct time points. We excluded trials recruiting pediatric or neonatal patients and cluster RCTs. DATA EXTRACTION: Mortality by randomization group was recorded from the article or estimated from survival curves. Trial impact was assessed by inclusion of results in clinical practice guidelines. DATA SYNTHESIS: From 2,592 potentially eligible trials, we included 343 RCTs (228,784 adult patients). While one third of all deaths by 180 days had occurred by day 7, the risk difference between study arms continued to increase until day 60 (p = 0.01) and possibly day 90 (p = 0.07) and remained stable thereafter. The number of deaths at ICU discharge approximated those at 28-30 days (95% [interquartile range [IQR], 86-106%]), and deaths at hospital discharge approximated those at 60 days (99% [IQR, 94-104%]). Only 13 of 43 interventions (30.2%) showing a mortality benefit have been adopted into widespread clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide a conceptual framework for choosing a time horizon and interpreting mortality outcome in trials of acute illness. Differential mortality effects persist for 60 to 90 days following recruitment. Location-based measures approximate time-based measures for trials conducted outside the United States. The documentation of a mortality reduction has had a modest impact on practice.

Cuidados Críticos , Estado Terminal , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Doença Aguda , Estado Terminal/terapia , Alta do Paciente , Mortalidade , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto
Environ Health ; 22(1): 5, 2023 Jan 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36635705


BACKGROUND: Although adaptation to continuously rising ambient temperatures is an emerging topic and has been widely studied at a global scale, detailed analysis of the joint indicators for long-term adaptation in Spain are scarce. This study aims to explore temporal variations of the minimum mortality temperature and mortality burden from heat and cold between 1979 and 2018. METHODS: We collected individual all-cause mortality and climate reanalysis data for 4 decades at a daily time step. To estimate the temperature-mortality association for each decade, we fitted a quasi-Poisson time-series regression model using a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, controlling for trends and day of the week. We also calculated attributable mortality fractions by age and sex for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponds to the minimum mortality in each period. RESULTS: We analysed over 14 million deaths registered in Spain between 1979 and 2018. The optimum temperature estimated at a nationwide scale declined from 21 °C in 1979-1988 to 16 °C in 1999-2008, and raised to 18 °C in 2009-2018. The mortality burden from moderate cold showed a 3-fold reduction down to 2.4% in 2009-2018. Since 1988-1999, the mortality risk attributable to moderate (extreme) heat reduced from 0.9% (0.8%) to 0.6% (0.5%). The mortality risk due to heat in women was almost 2 times larger than in men, and did not decrease over time. CONCLUSION: Despite the progressively warmer temperatures in Spain, we observed a persistent flattening of the exposure-response curves, which marked an expansion of the uncertainty range of the optimal temperatures. Adaptation has been produced to some extent in a non-uniform manner with a substantial decrease in cold-related mortality, while for heat it became more apparent in the most recent decade only.

Temperatura Baixa , Temperatura Alta , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Temperatura , Espanha/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Mortalidade
Eur. j. psychiatry ; 37(1): 1-7, enero 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | IBECS | ID: ibc-213935


Background and objectivesThe potential role of antipsychotics in increasing cardiovascular risk of mortality is still debated. The aim of this study was to assess the death risk associated with sequences of first-generation antipsychotic (FGA) and second-generation antipsychotic (SGA) prescriptions, including clozapine and lithium, and drugs for cardiometabolic diseases.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective longitudinal analysis involving 84,881 patients who received antipsychotics between 2008 and 2012. Data on deaths were collected from the National Death Registry. The sequence creation was performed according to an algorithm that iterates prescriptions in chronological order and appends them to the end of the patient's prescription sequence. Fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (FsQCA) was also used to produce causal combinations of conditions that best lead to survival.ResultsThere were 1,095,518 antipsychotic prescriptions and 16,010 deaths among antipsychotic users. Among the reimbursement data, 85,272 drug sequences were identified. The most prevalent sequence consisted of FGA (69.1%). Subsequent groups consisted of FGA, followed by SGA (13.1%) and SGA-only (12.3%) sequences. The highest occurrence of death and cardiometabolic drug use after introducing antipsychotic treatment was observed for clozapine. The FsQCA analysis revealed the highest coverage for combinations of young age with FGA (40.6%) or with no cardiometabolic risk factors drug therapy (39.5%).ConclusionThe sequence analysis suggests that clozapine is associated with an increased death risk compared to FGA and SGA. (AU)

Humanos , Antipsicóticos , Mortalidade , Clozapina , Lítio
Rev. esp. salud pública ; 97: e202301004-e202301004, Ene. 2023. ilus, graf, tab
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-214649


FUNDAMENTOS: Existe bibliografía que apoya un retraso diagnóstico y terapéutico en mujeres con alto riesgo cardiovascular. El objetivo de este trabajo fue conocer la incidencia de la enfermedad cardiovascular (ECV) y la mortalidad en una cohorte con Síndrome Metabólico (SM), así como analizar posibles diferencias de género y lugar de residencia, respecto a la realización de angioplastias primarias en pacientes con cardiopatía isquémica (CI). MÉTODOS: Información para la Investigación en Atención Primaria), en Atención Primaria de Cataluña. Seleccionamos personas de ambos sexos, entre 35-75 años, exentos de ECV al inicio (2009), cumpliendo criterios de SM (diagnósticos NCEP-ATPIII [National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III]). La variable resultado fue la incidencia a 10 años de ECV y la mortalidad global por toda causa. Registramos variables sociodemográficas (edad, sexo, fenotipo SM, índice socioeconómico MEDEA) y reperfusión coronaria. Se realizó estadística descriptiva, ANOVA y prueba de chi-cuadrado para verificar la diferencia entre variables. RESULTADOS: 167.673 personas cumplieron criterios de SM (5,2% de la población), de las cuales había 105.969 hombres (63,2%). El 22% de población pertenecía a áreas rurales. Aquellas áreas urbanas más dispares socioeconómicamente (urbana-1 y urbana-5), exhibieron las mayores incidencias de ECV y CI. Registramos 51.129 ECV (30,7%) de los cuales 8.889 fueron infartos agudos de miocardio (IAM; 5,3%) y 24.284 fueron CI (14,5%). Se realizaron 1.758 procedimientos de angioplastia primaria, 1.467 en hombres y 291 en mujeres, representando respectivamente un 4,4% y un 0,9% (p<0.005). CONCLUSIONES: La incidencia de IAM y CI en sujetos con SM es alta en Cataluña. Existe diferencia estadísticamente significativa en las angioplastias realizadas, según sexo y lugar de residencia...(AU)

BACKGROUND: Some bibliography supports a diagnostic and therapeutic delay in women with high cardiovascular risk. The objective of this paper was to know the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in a cohort with Metabolic Syndrome (MetS); analyze possible differences in gender and place of residence, regarding the performance of primary angioplasties in patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD). METHODS: Population cohort study, with SIDIAP database (Sistema de Información para la Investigación en Atención Primaria), in primary care in Catalonia. We selected people of both sexes, between 35-75 years old, exempt from CVD at the beginning (2009), fulfilling MetS criteria (NCEP-ATPIII-National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III- criteria diagnoses). We performed descriptive statistics, and ANOVA and Chi-square test to evaluate differences between variables. RESULTS: 167,673 people met MetS criteria (5.2% of the population), 105,969 men (63.2%). 22% of the population belonged to rural areas. Those urban areas with the most socioeconomic differences (urban-1 and urban-5) exhibited the highest incidences of CVD and IHD. We registered 51,129 CVD (30.7%) of which 8,889 were acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) (5,3%) and 24,284 were IHD (14,5%). 1.758 primary angioplasties procedures were performed, 1,467 in men and 291 in women, representing, respectively, 4.4% and 0.9% (p<0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of IHD and AMI in subjects with MetS is high in Catalonia. There is a difference in the angioplasties performed, according to sex and place of residence. Probably a practical implication would be to detect IHD in time in women with MetS, so that they can benefit from revascularization therapy in the same way as men.

Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Isquemia Miocárdica , Mortalidade , 29161 , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Pobreza , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores de Risco , Espanha , Estudos de Coortes
Rev. esp. anestesiol. reanim ; 70(1): 1-9, Ene. 2023. tab, graf
Artigo em Espanhol | IBECS | ID: ibc-214179


Introducción: El cáncer colorrectal es una enfermedad que habitualmente aparece en ancianos y su principal tratamiento continúa siendo quirúrgico. La fragilidad es síndrome clínico que se caracteriza por presentar una disminución de la reserva fisiológica, aumenta con la edad y ha sido reconocido como un factor predictivo de mortalidad postoperatoria. Nuestro objetivo primario ha sido evaluar la asociación entre dos escalas de fragilidad y la mortalidad a un año después de la cirugía, y comparando la fuerza de su asociación del poder predictivo de mortalidad de las escalas de fragilidad y la de la clasificación de la American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA). Las escalas utilizadas fueron: Modified Frailty Index (MFI) y el Risk Analysis Index (RAI-A). Los objetivos secundarios han sido la evaluación de la relación de las escalas de fragilidad con la morbilidad y la comparación de estas con la clasificación ASA en cuanto a predicción de morbilidad. Material y métodos: Analizamos retrospectivamente 172 pacientes mayores de 65 años que fueron intervenidos de cirugía oncológica colorrectal laparoscópica desde enero de 2017 hasta junio de 2018 con un seguimiento de un año posterior a la cirugía. Resultados: La fragilidad esta significativamente asociada a la mortalidad y morbilidad (p < 0,001). A más fragilidad, mayor probabilidad de estancia hospitalaria, complicaciones, reingresos y visitas a urgencias. Los pacientes fueron categorizados en dos grupos (pacientes frágiles y no frágiles). Los C-index de la predicción a mortalidad a un año obtenidos con el RAI-A y el MFI fueron 0,89 y 0,86, respectivamente. Por otro lado, la clasificación ASA no se relaciona con mortalidad, su C-index fue del 0,63. Discusión: Las escalas de fragilidad deberían empezar a influenciar las intervenciones médicas y quirúrgicas, y se deberían implementar guías y protocolos que tuviesen en cuenta el grado de fragilidad de los pacientes geriátricos.(AU)

Introduction: Colorectal cancer is a disease of the elderly and its main treatment is surgery. Frailty, a clinical syndrome of decreased reserve, increases with age and has been recognized as a predictive factor for postoperative mortality. Our primary objective was to assess the association between twohree frailty scores and mortality. within the first year after surgery, by retrospectively linking frailty scores to mortality data and comparing the strength of their association with mortality to that of the ASA Classification. The frailty scales used were: the Modified Frailty Index (MFI) and, the Risk Analysis Index-A (RAI-A) and the G8 screening test (G8). As secondary objectives, we assessed the relationship of the frailty scales with morbidity and compared all the scales with the ASA. Material and methods: We retrospectively studied 172 patients aged 65 years. and older who underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery for cancer between January 2017 and June 2018, following them up for 1 year after surgery. Results: Both morbidity and mortality were significantly associated with all frailty scale scores (p < 0.001). The more frailty, the greater probability of prolonged hospital stay, complications, readmissions and emergency department visits. Using each scale, patients were categorized into two groups (frail and non-frail patients). The C-indexes for 1-year mortality with the RAI-A and, MFI and G8 were 0.89 and, 0.86 and 0.86 respectively. On the other hand, ASA status is not strongly associated with mortality, with a C-index of 0.63. Discussion: Frailty scores should begin to influence medical and surgical strategies and further research is needed to develop guidelines for interventions in geriatric patients.(AU)

Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso , Fragilidade , Cirurgia Colorretal , Oncologia , Neoplasias Colorretais , Mortalidade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Projetos Piloto , Espanha
Gastroenterol. hepatol. (Ed. impr.) ; 46(1): 28-38, Ene. 2023. ilus, tab, graf
Artigo em Inglês | IBECS | ID: ibc-214366


Introduction: Inadequate social support is associated with higher mortality both in the general population and in patients with chronic diseases. There are no studies that have described social support in liver cirrhosis and its impact on prognosis. Objectives: To analyze the impact social support has in the survival of patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Methods: Prospective multicentric cohort study (2016–2019). Patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis were included. Epidemiological, clinical and social variables were collected, using the validated Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey, with a 12-month follow-up. Results: A total of 127 patients were included, of which 79.5% were men. The most common etiology of cirrhosis was alcohol (74.8%), mean age was 60 years (SD 10.29), mean MELD was 15.6 (SD 6.3) and most of the patients had a Child–Pugh B (53.5%) or C (35.4%). In the assessment of social support, we observed that most of the patients (92.2%) had adequate global support. At the end of the follow-up (median 314 days), 70.1% of the patients survived. The 1-year survival rate in patients with inadequate global social support was 30%, compared to 73.5% in the presence of social support. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, inadequate social support predicted survival with an adjusted HR of 5.5 (95% CI 2,3-13,4) independently of MELD (HR 1.1, 95% CI 1–1.2), age (HR 1, 95% CI 1–1.1) and hepatocarcinoma (HR 10.6, 95% CI 4.1–27.4). Conclusion: Adequate social support improves survival in liver cirrhosis, independently of clinical variables. Social intervention strategies should be considered for their management.(AU)

Introducción: El apoyo social se asocia a mortalidad en población general y en pacientes con enfermedades crónicas. No hay estudios que hayan descrito el apoyo social en cirrosis hepática y su impacto sobre el pronóstico. Objetivo: Analizar el impacto del apoyo social en la supervivencia en cirrosis hepática descompensada. Material y métodos: Estudio multicéntrico prospectivo de cohortes (2016–2019). Se incluyeron pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada. Se recogieron variables epidemiológicas, clínicas y sociales mediante la escala validada Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Survey (MOS), realizando un seguimiento de 12 meses. Resultados: Se incluyeron 127 pacientes, el 79,5% eran hombres. La causa más común de la cirrosis hepática fue alcohol (74,8%), la edad media 60 años (DE: 10,29), la media de MELD 15,6 (DE: 6,3) y la mayoría tenían Child-Pugh B (53,5%) o C (35,4%). Se observó que la mayoría de pacientes (92,2%) tenían un apoyo social adecuado (MOS global>56). Al finalizar el seguimiento (mediana 314 días), el 70,1% de los pacientes sobrevivieron. La supervivencia al año en falta de apoyo social fue del 30%, comparado con el 73,5% en los que el apoyo social era adecuado. En el análisis de regresión multivariante el apoyo social predijo la supervivencia con un HR ajustado de 5,5 (IC 95%: 2,3-13,4) independientemente del MELD (HR: 1,1; IC 95%: 1-1,2), edad (HR: 1; IC 95%: 1-1,1) y hepatocarcinoma (HR: 10,6; IC 95%: 4,1-27,4). Conclusión: El apoyo social inadecuado en pacientes con CH disminuye la supervivencia, independientemente de las variables clínicas. Se deberían plantear estrategias de intervención social para su manejo.(AU)

Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Apoio Social , Sobrevivência , Cirrose Hepática , Doença Crônica , Mortalidade , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos de Coortes
Rev. cient. cienc. salud ; 5(1): 1-6, 26-01-2023.
Artigo em Espanhol | BDNPAR | ID: biblio-1413358


Introducción. La pandemia por COVID-19 desde su inicio hasta el 13 de agosto de 2022, ha causado 19.478 muertes en Paraguay, con una tasa de letalidad de 2,78%. El objetivo del estudio es comparar las características de los pacientes fallecidos por COVID-19 en dos años, enero-diciembre, 2021 y enero-julio 2022. Material y Método.Estudio analítico retrospectivo de corte transverso de pacientes adultos y pediátricos fallecidos por COVID-19 confirmados por RT-PCR en hisopados nasofaríngeos que estaban internados en el área respiratoria del Hospital Nacional de Itauguá.Resultados. De 5265 pacientes internados con COVID-19, fallecieron 1512, siendo la letalidad global de 28,7%, en el 2021 fue 26,3% (1164/4423) y 41,3% (348/842) en el 2022. Hubo mayor porcentaje de varones (53,6%) entre los fallecidos, significativamente mayor (p=0.045) en el 2022 (58,3%) que en el 2021 (52,2%). El 69% de los fallecidos eran mayores de 60 años en el 2022 y 48,3% en 2021. El 79,2% de los pacientes tenía algún factor de riesgo, que fue mayor en el 2022 (84,3%) que en el 2021 (77,7%), sobre todo, HTA (54,3% vs 42,2%), cardiopatía (15,8% vs 9,7%), ERC (14,4% vs 5,4%), EPOC (11,5% vs 5,4%), inmunodeficiencia (6,3% vs 2,5%) y enfermedad neurológica (3,4% vs 1,5%). La necesidad de ARM fue significativamente (p <0,001) mayor en el 2022 (50,3%) que en el 2021 (31,1%). Conclusión. Se observó unaletalidad global elevada en un hospital de referencia en Paraguay con los predictores de mortalidad similares a lo reportado a nivel mundial.Palabras clave: mortalidad; COVID-19; factores de riesgo.

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic from its beginning until August 13, 2022, has caused 19,478 deaths in Paraguay with a fatality rate of 2.78%. The objective of the study is to compare the characteristics of patients who died from COVID-19 in two years, January-December 2021 and January-July 2022. Material and Method. A retrospective cross-sectional analytical study of adult and pediatric patients who died from COVID-19 hospitalized in the respiratory area of the hospital. The patients were confirmed by RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs. Results.Out of 5265 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 1512 died, yielding an overall lethality rate of 28.7%, in 2021 was 26.3% (1164/4423) and 41.3% (348/842) in 2022. There was a higher percentage of men (53, 6%) among the deceased, significantly higher (p=0.045) in 2022 (58.3%) thanin 2021 (52.2%); 69% of the deceased were over 60 years of age in 2022 and 48.3% in 2021; 79.2% of the patients had some risk factor, significantly higher in 2022 (84.3%) than in 2021 (77.7%), especially in AHT (54.3% vs 42.2%), heart disease (15.8% vs 9.7%), CKD (14.4% vs 5.4%), COPD (11.5% vs 5.4%), immunodeficiency (6.3% vs 2.5%) and neurological disease (3.4% vs 1.5%). The need for MRA was significantly (p <0.001) higher in 2022 (50.3%) than in 2021 (31.1%). Conclusion.A high global lethality rate was observed in a reference hospital in Paraguay with mortality predictors similar to those reported worldwide.

Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pré-Escolar , Criança , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Mortalidade , Fatores de Risco , COVID-19
BMC Infect Dis ; 23(1): 29, 2023 Jan 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36653766


BACKGROUND: Broad and specific causes of adult mortalities are often neglected indicators of wellbeing in low-income countries like Ethiopia due to lack of strong vital statistics. Thus, this database study aimed to assess the causes of adult mortality using demographic surveillance data. METHODS: An 8-year (12 September 2009-11 September 2017) surveillance data from the Arba Minch Health and Demographic Surveillance Site was used for this study. Verbal autopsy methods and ICD codes were used to identify the causes of the adult deaths. The collected data were entered to the database by data clerks. We used Microsoft Excel and STATA version 16 software for data cleaning and analysis. Chi-squared test was used to see the significances of the trend analyses. RESULT: From the 943 adult deaths from 2009 to 2017 in the Health and Demographic Surveillance Site in southern Ethiopia, more than half of them were females. The specific leading cause of death in the adults were tuberculosis (16.8%), malaria (9.7%), and intestinal infectious diseases (9.6%). Communicable diseases (49.2%, 95% C.I 45.7, 52.7) accounted for about half of the deaths followed by non-communicable diseases (35%, 95% C.I 31.7, 38.4) where both categories showed an increasing trend. CONCLUSION: Although pieces of evidences are showing the shift from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases as the major causes of adult death in developing countries, this study showed that communicable diseases are still the major causes of adult deaths. Efforts and emphasis should be given to control infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and malaria.

Doenças Transmissíveis , Malária , Doenças não Transmissíveis , Tuberculose , Feminino , Adulto , Humanos , Masculino , Causas de Morte , Seguimentos , Etiópia/epidemiologia , Mortalidade
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 149, 2023 Jan 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36681785


BACKGROUND: With complex changes in the global climate, it is critical to understand how ambient temperature affects health, especially in China. We aimed to assess the effects of temperature on daily mortality, including total non-accidental, cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality between 2016 and 2020 in Chengdu, China. METHODS: We obtained daily temperature and mortality data for the period 2016-2020. A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed-lag nonlinear model was used to examine the association between temperature and daily mortality. We investigated the effects of individual characteristics by sex, age, education level, and marital status. RESULTS: We found significant non-linear effects of temperature on total non-accidental, CVD, respiratory, cerebrovascular, and IHD mortality. Heat effects were immediate and lasted for 0-3 days, whereas cold effects persisted for 7-10 days. The relative risks associated with extreme high temperatures (99th percentile of temperature, 28 °C) over lags of 0-3 days were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.17, 1.28) for total non-accidental mortality, 1.40 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.50) for CVD morality, 1.34 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.46) for respiratory morality, 1.33 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.47) for cerebrovascular mortality, and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.58) for IHD mortality. The relative risks associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 3.0 °C) over lags of 0-14 days were 1.32 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.46) for total mortality, 1.45 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.68) for CVD morality, 1.28 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.50) for respiratory morality, 1.36 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.70) for cerebrovascular mortality, and 1.26 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.68) for IHD morality. We found that hot and cold affects were greater in those over 85 years of age, and that women, individuals with low education levels, and those who were widowed, divorced, or never married, were more vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that exposure to hot and cold temperatures in Chengdu was associated with increased mortality, with people over 85 years old, women, those with low education levels, and unmarried individuals being more affected by hot and cold temperatures.

Doenças Cardiovasculares , Isquemia Miocárdica , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Temperatura , Fatores de Tempo , Temperatura Alta , Temperatura Baixa , China/epidemiologia , Dinâmica não Linear , Mortalidade
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 7, 2023 01 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36597073


BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic deprivation (SED) is known to influence cardiovascular health. However, studies analyzing the relationship between deprivation and circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Central and Eastern Europe are limited. This study aimed to assess the relationship between SED and mortality due to CSD at a population level in 66 sub-regions of Poland. METHODS: The 2010-2014 data regarding mortality and SED components were obtained from the Central Statistical Office. An area-based SED index was calculated based on the higher education rates, employment structure, wages, unemployment, and poverty. The dynamics of changes in mortality due to CSD was expressed by the number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in terciles of the SED index. The associations between the mortality from CSD and SED index were analyzed using multivariate Poisson regression models and generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Among men, the percentage of DPP in 2014 was 13.1% for CSD, 23.4% for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 21.4% for cerebrovascular diseases (CeVD). In the case of women, the proportion of DPP was 12.8, 25.6, and 21.6%, respectively. More deprived sub-regions experienced a greater decrease in CSD-related mortality than less deprived sub-regions. The disparity in mortality reduction between more deprived and less deprived sub-regions was even more pronounced for women. After adjusting for smoking prevalence, average BMI, population density, and changes in mortality over time, it was found that the SED index over the 2010-2014 time period was significantly associated with CSD- and IHD-related mortality for men (respectively 5.3 and 19.5% expected mortality increase per 1-unit increase of SED index), and with IHD- and CeVD-related mortality for women (respectively 30.3 and 23.0% expected mortality increase per 1-unit increase of SED index). CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences in mortality changes due to CSD in Poland could be observed in relation to socioeconomic deprivation, resulting in reduced health inequalities. To reduce CSD mortality, more comprehensive preventive measures, including approaches addressing the socioeconomic factors, mainly poverty, education and employment, are needed, particularly in less urbanized areas.

Doenças Cardiovasculares , Sistema Cardiovascular , Isquemia Miocárdica , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Polônia/epidemiologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Pobreza , Mortalidade
Int J Biometeorol ; 67(2): 355-366, 2023 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36592210


Extreme ambient temperatures are well-known for their adverse impact on public health, in the form of increased mortality and morbidity due to respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases. However, to capture the total impact of weather on cause-specific mortality/morbidity, the synoptic atmospheric conditions over the region under study need to be taken into account. The objective of this work is to identify weather types over Thessaloniki, Greece, statistically associated with mortality from circulatory and respiratory diseases, in an attempt to holistically determine the impact of weather on cause-specific mortality in the region. For this purpose, we employed datasets from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis comprising intrinsic daily data, gridded at a resolution of 2.5°×2.5° and covering a 41-year period (1980-2020). The first set used contains data of 500 hPa and 1,000 hPa geopotential heights for the main geographical domain of the Mediterranean region (30°N-45°N, 10°Ε-35°E). The second set comprises meteorological variables (2 m temperature, specific humidity, 2 m zonal and 2 m meridional wind and total cloud cover) for a geographical domain of north Greece (40.95°Ν, 22.50°Ε-26.25°E). We applied a combination of principal components analysis (PCA) as a dimensionality reduction tool and k-means cluster analysis (CA) in order to group days with homogeneous synoptic meteorological parameters. The derived weather types were statistically correlated with respiratory and mortality data for the time-period 1999-2018. It was concluded that the most fatal conditions for public health in Thessaloniki were associated with weather types bringing low/extremely low ambient temperature over north Greece.

Temperatura Alta , Tempo (Meteorologia) , Clima , Grécia/epidemiologia , Mortalidade , Temperatura
N Engl J Med ; 388(1): 5-7, 2023 01 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36592337
BMC Med ; 21(1): 22, 2023 Jan 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36647069


BACKGROUND: Taxation increases which reduce the affordability of alcohol are expected to reduce mortality inequalities. A recent taxation increase in Lithuania offers the unique possibility to test this hypothesis. METHODS: Census-linked mortality data between 2011 and 2019 were used to calculate monthly sex- and education-stratified age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 40 to 70 years. As primary outcome, we analysed the difference in age-standardized all-cause mortality rates between the population of lowest versus highest educational achievement. The impact of the 2017 taxation increase was evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. To identify whether changes in alcohol use can explain the observed effects on all-cause mortality, the education-based mortality differences were then decomposed into n = 16 cause-of-death groupings. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2019, education-based all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania declined by 18% among men and by 14% among women. Following the alcohol taxation increase, we found a pronounced yet temporary reduction of mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men (- 13%). Subsequent decomposition analyses suggest that the reduction in mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated men was mainly driven by narrowing mortality differences in injuries and infectious diseases. CONCLUSIONS: A marked increase in alcohol excise taxation was associated with a decrease in mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men. More pronounced reductions in deaths from injuries and infectious diseases among lower as compared to higher educated groups could be the result of differential changes in alcohol use in these populations.

Doenças Transmissíveis , Etanol , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Lituânia/epidemiologia , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Causas de Morte , Impostos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Mortalidade
Artif Intell Med ; 135: 102457, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36628793


In recent years, machine learning methods have been rapidly adopted in the medical domain. However, current state-of-the-art medical mining methods usually produce opaque, black-box models. To address the lack of model transparency, substantial attention has been given to developing interpretable machine learning models. In the medical domain, counterfactuals can provide example-based explanations for predictions, and show practitioners the modifications required to change a prediction from an undesired to a desired state. In this paper, we propose a counterfactual solution MedSeqCF for preventing the mortality of three cohorts of ICU patients, by representing their electronic health records as medical event sequences, and generating counterfactuals by adopting and employing a text style-transfer technique. We propose three model augmentations for MedSeqCF to integrate additional medical knowledge for generating more trustworthy counterfactuals. Experimental results on the MIMIC-III dataset strongly suggest that augmented style-transfer methods can be effectively adapted for the problem of counterfactual explanations in healthcare applications and can further improve the model performance in terms of validity, BLEU-4, local outlier factor, and edit distance. In addition, our qualitative analysis of the results by consultation with medical experts suggests that our style-transfer solutions can generate clinically relevant and actionable counterfactual explanations.

Unidades de Terapia Intensiva , Aprendizado de Máquina , Mortalidade , Humanos