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1.
Prehosp Disaster Med ; 36(6): 767-773, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34615562

RESUMO

Category A agents are biological pathogens that could pose a threat to health and human safety if used as bioweapons. The exploration and possibility of these threats must be comprehensively reviewed to create a preparedness plan to recognize outbreaks, to educate the public, and to offer vaccinations and/or treatment options, if available. A scoping review using PRISMA guidelines was performed to categorize current information on Category A biological agents as well as understand their potential for future threats. The results used 34 articles and found that while botulin neurotoxins were the most lethal, anthrax posed the most likely threat for use as a bioweapon. Most research was conducted on plague, though it is not the most likely threat. Smallpox is the most likely agent to vaccinate against as there is already a working vaccine that has proven effective and the issue at hand is the need for a larger stockpile. Ultimately, preparedness efforts should include vaccinations and continued research and development of them. Category A agents are a serious public health concern; updated and reformed bioterrorism preparedness plans could greatly minimize panic and mortality.


Assuntos
Antraz , Peste , Varíola , Antraz/epidemiologia , Bioterrorismo , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Varíola/epidemiologia
2.
PLoS Pathog ; 17(10): e1009995, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34648607

RESUMO

Yersinia murine toxin (Ymt) is a phospholipase D encoded on a plasmid acquired by Yersinia pestis after its recent divergence from a Yersinia pseudotuberculosis progenitor. Despite its name, Ymt is not required for virulence but acts to enhance bacterial survival in the flea digestive tract. Certain Y. pestis strains circulating in the Bronze Age lacked Ymt, suggesting that they were not transmitted by fleas. However, we show that the importance of Ymt varies with host blood source. In accordance with the original description, Ymt greatly enhanced Y. pestis survival in fleas infected with bacteremic mouse, human, or black rat blood. In contrast, Ymt was much less important when fleas were infected using brown rat blood. A Y. pestis Ymt- mutant infected fleas nearly as well as the Ymt+ parent strain after feeding on bacteremic brown rat blood, and the mutant was transmitted efficiently by flea bite during the first weeks after infection. The protective function of Ymt correlated with red blood cell digestion kinetics in the flea gut. Thus, early Y. pestis strains that lacked Ymt could have been maintained in flea-brown rat transmission cycles, and perhaps in other hosts with similar blood characteristics. Acquisition of Ymt, however, served to greatly expand the range of hosts that could support flea-borne plague.


Assuntos
Toxinas Bacterianas/metabolismo , Peste/transmissão , Sifonápteros/microbiologia , Yersinia pestis/genética , Yersinia pestis/metabolismo , Animais , Humanos , Insetos Vetores/microbiologia , Camundongos , Plasmídeos , Ratos , Virulência
4.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(10): 2544-2553, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34545784

RESUMO

We analyzed epidemiologic characteristics and distribution of 1,067 human plague cases and 5,958 Yersinia pestis isolates collected from humans, host animals, and insect vectors during 1950-2019 in 4 Marmota plague foci in China. The case-fatality rate for plague in humans was 68.88%; the overall trend slowly decreased over time but fluctuated greatly. Most human cases (98.31%) and isolates (82.06%) identified from any source were from the Marmota himalayana plague focus. The tendency among human cases could be divided into 3 stages: 1950-1969, 1970-2003, and 2004-2019. The Marmota sibirica plague focus has not had identified human cases nor isolates since 1926. However, in the other 3 foci, Y. pestis continues to circulate among animal hosts; ecologic factors might affect local Y. pestis activity. Marmota plague foci are active in China, and the epidemic boundary is constantly expanding, posing a potential threat to domestic and global public health.


Assuntos
Peste , Yersinia pestis , Animais , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Insetos Vetores , Marmota , Peste/epidemiologia
5.
Artigo em Russo | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34486876

RESUMO

The pandemic of plague, that affected Eurasia in middle of 40s - early 50s of XIV century and remained in history as as "The Black Death", became one of the most death-dealing epidemics that ever stroke humankind and recorded in historical sources. Owing to that many documentary and narrative sources remained intact, the history of this pandemic is considered as well examined. This is evidenced by enormous historiography of the problem, including works of the most different character and orientation. Yet, it should be admitted that in national Russian historiography the issues related to history of this pandemic on the Russian land remain to be insufficiently studied. This condition is related to limitation of source base from one hand and to inadequate development of comprehensive approach to exploration of this page of national history. The article, on the basis of analysis of chronicle texts, reconstructs general picture of the pandemic in the Russian land and characterizes its consequences.


Assuntos
Peste , História do Século XX , História Medieval , Hospitalização , Humanos , Pandemias , Peste/epidemiologia , Federação Russa/epidemiologia
6.
Sci Transl Med ; 13(611): eabl9098, 2021 09 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34524858

RESUMO

[Figure: see text].


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Peste , Humanos , Aprendizagem , SARS-CoV-2
7.
Ned Tijdschr Geneeskd ; 1652021 08 19.
Artigo em Holandês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34523836

RESUMO

Between 1554 and 2021, the number of and mortality from epidemics in Amsterdam decreased sharply. The decrease in epidemic outbreaks, such as those of plague, smallpox and cholera, paralleled the decrease in chronic mortality from endemic ailments and diseases, such as tuberculosis, malaria and dysentery. There are several theories about the reason for these declines, which are not necessarily mutually exclusive: better nutrition, greater prosperity, increasing altruism, and a growing understanding of cause and effect with targeted medical and public health measures. In the powder keg of chronic poverty and poor public health, a social crisis, such as war, migration, and natural disaster, usually was the spark that led to epidemic outbreaks. The nature and extent of poverty and ill health have changed and improved over the centuries, but the threat of man-made crises is unfortunately unabated.


Assuntos
Cólera , Epidemias , Peste , Varíola , Cólera/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , Peste/epidemiologia
8.
Infect Genet Evol ; 95: 105081, 2021 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34520873

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has harshly impacted Italy since its arrival in February 2020. In particular, provinces in Italy's Central and Northern macroregions have dealt with disproportionately greater case prevalence and mortality rates than those in the South. In this paper, we compare the morbidity and mortality dynamics of 16th and 17th century Plague outbreaks with those of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic across Italian regions. We also include data on infectious respiratory diseases which are presently endemic to Italy in order to analyze the regional differences between epidemic and endemic disease. A Growth Curve Analysis allowed for the estimation of time-related intercepts and slopes across the 16th and 17th centuries. Those statistical parameters were later incorporated as criterion variables in multiple General Linear Models. These statistical examinations determined that the Northern macroregion had a higher intercept than the Southern macroregion. This indicated that provinces located in Northern Italy had historically experienced higher plague mortalities than Southern polities. The analyses also revealed that this geographical differential in morbidity and mortality persists to this day, as the Northern macroregion has experienced a substantially higher COVID-19 mortality than the Southern macroregion. These results are consistent with previously published analyses. The only other stable and significant predictor of epidemic disease mortality was foreign urban potential, a measure of the degree of interconnectedness between 16th and 17th century Italian cities. Foreign urban potential was negatively associated with plague slope and positively associated with plague intercept, COVID-19 mortality, GDP per capita, and immigration per capita. Its substantial contribution in predicting both past and present outcomes provides a temporal continuity not seen in any other measure tested here. Overall, this study provides compelling evidence that temporally stable geographical factors, impacting both historical and current foreign pathogen spread above and beyond other hypothesized predictors, underlie the disproportionate impact COVID-19 has had throughout Central and Northern Italian provinces.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças Endêmicas/história , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias , Peste/epidemiologia , COVID-19/história , COVID-19/mortalidade , Cidades , Emigrantes e Imigrantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Geografia , Produto Interno Bruto , História do Século XVI , História do Século XVII , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Peste/história , Peste/mortalidade , Prevalência , Análise de Sobrevida
9.
Int J Mol Sci ; 22(18)2021 Sep 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34575967

RESUMO

The bacterial pathogen, Yersinia pestis, has caused three historic pandemics and continues to cause small outbreaks worldwide. During infection, Y. pestis assembles a capsule-like protective coat of thin fibres of Caf1 subunits. This F1 capsular antigen has attracted much attention due to its clinical value in plague diagnostics and anti-plague vaccine development. Expression of F1 is tightly regulated by a transcriptional activator, Caf1R, of the AraC/XylS family, proteins notoriously prone to aggregation. Here, we have optimised the recombinant expression of soluble Caf1R. Expression from the native and synthetic codon-optimised caf1R cloned in three different expression plasmids was examined in a library of E. coli host strains. The functionality of His-tagged Caf1R was demonstrated in vivo, but insolubility was a problem with overproduction. High levels of soluble MBP-Caf1R were produced from codon optimised caf1R. Transcriptional-lacZ reporter fusions defined the PM promoter and Caf1R binding site responsible for transcription of the cafMA1 operon. Use of the identified Caf1R binding caf DNA sequence in an electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) confirmed correct folding and functionality of the Caf1R DNA-binding domain in recombinant MBP-Caf1R. Availability of functional recombinant Caf1R will be a valuable tool to elucidate control of expression of F1 and Caf1R-regulated pathophysiology of Y. pestis.


Assuntos
Antígenos de Bactérias/genética , Proteínas de Bactérias/genética , Peste/genética , Yersinia pestis/genética , Proteínas de Ligação a DNA/genética , Genes araC/genética , Humanos , Óperon/genética , Peste/microbiologia , Peste/prevenção & controle , Plasmídeos/genética , Fatores de Transcrição/genética , Vacinas/genética , Yersinia pestis/patogenicidade
10.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 15(8): e0009558, 2021 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34343197

RESUMO

On 12 November 2019, one couple from the Sonid Left Qi (County) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was diagnosed with pneumonic plague in Beijing. The wife acquired the infection from her husband. Thereafter, two bubonic plague cases were identified in Inner Mongolia on November 16th and 24th. In this study, genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analysis was used to identify the phylogenetic relationship of Yersinia pestis strains isolated in Inner Mongolia. Strains isolated from reservoirs in 2018 and 2019 in Inner Mongolia, together with the strain isolated from Patient C, were further clustered into 2.MED3m, and two novel lineages (2.MED3q, 2.MED3r) in the 2.MED3 population. According to the analysis of PCR-based molecular subtyping methods, such as the MLVA 14 scheme and seven SNP allele sequencing, Patients A/B and D were classified as 2.MED3m. In addition, strains from rodents living near the patients' residences were clustered into the same lineage as patients. Such observations indicated that human plague cases originated from local reservoirs. Corresponding phylogenetic analysis also indicated that rodent plague strains in different areas in Inner Mongolia belong to different epizootics rather than being caused by spreading from the same epizootic in Meriones unguiculatus in 2019.


Assuntos
Peste/epidemiologia , Yersinia pestis/genética , Yersinia pestis/patogenicidade , Adulto , Animais , Pequim/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , Evolução Fatal , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Filogenia , Peste/etiologia , Roedores/microbiologia , Yersinia pestis/isolamento & purificação
12.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 27(8): 2033-2041, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34286686

RESUMO

Knowing whether human corpses can transmit plague will inform policies for handling the bodies of those who have died of the disease. We analyzed the literature to evaluate risk for transmission of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, from human corpses and animal carcasses. Because we could not find direct evidence of transmission, we described a transmission pathway and assessed the potential for transmission at each step. We examined 3 potential sources of infection: body fluids of living plague patients, infected corpses and carcasses, and body fluids of infected corpses. We concluded that pneumonic plague can be transmitted by intensive handling of the corpse or carcass, presumably through the inhalation of respiratory droplets, and that bubonic plague can be transmitted by blood-to-blood contact with the body fluids of a corpse or carcass. These findings should inform precautions taken by those handling the bodies of persons or animals that died of plague.


Assuntos
Peste , Yersinia pestis , Animais , Cadáver , Humanos , Peste/epidemiologia
13.
MMWR Recomm Rep ; 70(3): 1-27, 2021 07 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34264565

RESUMO

This report provides CDC recommendations to U.S. health care providers regarding treatment, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and postexposure prophylaxis of plague. Yersinia pestis, the bacterium that causes plague, leads to naturally occurring disease in the United States and other regions worldwide and is recognized as a potential bioterrorism weapon. A bioweapon attack with Y. pestis could potentially infect thousands, requiring rapid and informed decision making by clinicians and public health agencies. The U.S. government stockpiles a variety of medical countermeasures to mitigate the effects of a bioterrorism attack (e.g., antimicrobials, antitoxins, and vaccines) for which the 21st Century Cures Act mandates the development of evidence-based guidelines on appropriate use. Guidelines for treatment and postexposure prophylaxis of plague were published in 2000 by a nongovernmental work group; since then, new human clinical data, animal study data, and U.S. Food and Drug Administration approvals of additional countermeasures have become available. To develop a comprehensive set of updated guidelines, CDC conducted a series of systematic literature reviews on human treatment of plague and other relevant topics to collect a broad evidence base for the recommendations in this report. Evidence from CDC reviews and additional sources were presented to subject matter experts during a series of forums. CDC considered individual expert input while developing these guidelines, which provide recommended best practices for treatment and prophylaxis of human plague for both naturally occurring disease and following a bioterrorism attack. The guidelines do not include information on diagnostic testing, triage decisions, or logistics involved in dispensing medical countermeasures. Clinicians and public health officials can use these guidelines to prepare their organizations, hospitals, and communities to respond to a plague mass-casualty event and as a guide for treating patients affected by plague.


Assuntos
Anti-Infecciosos/uso terapêutico , Peste/prevenção & controle , Profilaxia Pós-Exposição , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição , Bioterrorismo , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Humanos , Peste/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
14.
Front Cell Infect Microbiol ; 11: 700322, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34307197

RESUMO

A lytic Yersinia pestis phage vB_YpP-YepMm (also named YepMm for briefly) was first isolated from the bone marrow of a Marmota himalayana who died of natural causes on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau in China. Based on its morphologic (isometric hexagonal head and short non-contractile conical tail) and genomic features, we classified it as belonging to the Podoviridae family. At the MOI of 10, YepMm reached maximum titers; and the one-step growth curve showed that the incubation period of the phage was about 10 min, the rise phase was about 80 min, and the lysis amount of the phage during the lysis period of 80 min was about 187 PFU/cell. The genome of the bacteriophage YepMm had nucleotide-sequence similarity of 99.99% to that of the Y. pestis bacteriophage Yep-phi characterized previously. Analyses of the biological characters showed that YepMm has a short latent period, strong lysis, and a broader lysis spectrum. It could infect Y. pestis, highly pathogenic bioserotype 1B/O:8 Y. enterocolitica, as well as serotype O:1b Y. pseudotuberculosis-the ancestor of Y. pestis. It could be further developed as an important biocontrol agent in pathogenic Yersinia spp. infection.


Assuntos
Bacteriófagos , Peste , Yersinia pestis , Animais , Bacteriófagos/genética , Medula Óssea , China , Marmota , Tibet
15.
Proc Biol Sci ; 288(1954): 20202725, 2021 07 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34255997

RESUMO

Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7°C and 21.5°C with a maximum around 17.3°C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.


Assuntos
Peste , Yersinia pestis , Surtos de Doenças , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Pandemias , Peste/epidemiologia , Temperatura
16.
J Anal Psychol ; 66(3): 583-604, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34231888

RESUMO

In the struggle with COVID-19, art offered a way to face the solitude of the lockdown. The focus of this paper is primarily on Caravaggio's painting The Seven Works of Mercy, with references to other paintings to amplify some aspects of the artist's approach to life and his uniqueness in the artistic landscape of his time. Darkness was part of Caravaggio's research for spiritual truth and by entering the stories of his life and exploring the tales told through imaginative expression in his paintings, it is possible to understand his process of exploration of ancestral darkness. The author uses her imagination to reflect on how art can help to contact the profound fears buried in the unconscious which are now being awakened by the pandemic. The contemplation of this painting facilitated the emergence of emotions related to the darkness of our time, with the discovery that empathy and mercy offer a way to come to terms with the pandemic. This approach demands a different understanding of reality with Caravaggio's dark creative world becoming a companion that permits the exploration of what is not yet thinkable in daily life. Images accompany the author's research that relies on her imagination and amplifications.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pinturas/história , Religião e Psicologia , História do Século XVI , História do Século XVII , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Peste/história
17.
Med Humanit ; 47(3): e4, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34253585

RESUMO

COVID-19 represents one of the most challenging global health issues in modern times. However, as epidemics have affected humans since our origins, many before us have described how significantly they compromise human lives. Leaving apart the aspects more linked to medicine and health sciences, we focus here on analysing how epidemics force people to change their habits, what type of emotions and behaviours they promote, and which roles are played by different social actors. For such a purpose, especially if we wish to draw some parallels between past epidemics and COVID-19, historical records seemed to be more suitable than literary works. Nonetheless, we have taken this approach relying on La Peste (Albert Camus, 1947), a novel based on a fictional epidemic of plague in the Algerian town of Oran. Far from creating a barrier separating fiction from reality, this reading allowed us to establish several links with our current situation. Recognising that context and solutions vary widely between the two scenarios, core matters concerning epidemics seemed to remain invariable. The important role of data and statistics, the leadership acquired by health authorities, the separations of relatives or the negative effects on trade and business are some issues which took place in Oran as well as nowadays. Besides that, epidemics also affect humans at an individual level, and certain thoughts and feelings in La Peste's main characters may make us identify with our own fears and desires.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , Obras de Ficção como Assunto , Literatura Moderna , Peste , França , História do Século XX , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Literatura Moderna/história , SARS-CoV-2
18.
Int J Paleopathol ; 34: 101-112, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34237609

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To identify the major health problems of the Middle Ages. Bubonic plague is often considered the greatest health disaster in medieval history, but this has never been systematically investigated. MATERIALS: We triangulate upon the problem using (i) modern WHO data on disease in the modern developing world, (ii) historical evidence for England such as post-medieval Bills of Mortality, and (iii) prevalences derived from original and published palaeopathological studies. METHODS: Systematic analysis of the consequences of these health conditions using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) according to the Global Burden of Disease methodology. RESULTS: Infant and child death due to varied causes had the greatest impact upon population and health, followed by a range of chronic/infectious diseases, with tuberculosis probably being the next most significant one. CONCLUSIONS: Among medieval health problems, we estimate that plague was probably 7th-10th in overall importance. Although lethal and disruptive, it struck only periodically and had less cumulative long-term human consequences than chronically endemic conditions (e.g. bacterial and viral infections causing infant and child death, tuberculosis, and other pathogens). SIGNIFICANCE: In contrast to modern health regimes, medieval health was above all an ecological struggle against a diverse host of infectious pathogens; social inequality was probably also an important contributing factor. LIMITATIONS: Methodological assumptions and use of proxy data mean that only approximate modelling of prevalences is possible. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Progress in understanding medieval health really depends upon understanding ancient infectious disease through further development of biomolecular methods.


Assuntos
Pessoas com Deficiência , Peste , Criança , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Peste/epidemiologia , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida
19.
Int J Paleopathol ; 34: 130-133, 2021 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34243132

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: The development of tuberculosis is classically associated with the rise of the Industrial Revolution. Our objective is to test this epidemiological hypothesis for populations in France between the 18th and 20th centuries using osteoarchaeological and historical sources. MATERIALS: Osteoarchaeological sources include two skeletal collections from plague epidemics in Provence (1590 and 1722) representing a total of 349 individuals and medical archives dating 1750-1930 from Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Montpellier. METHODS: Paleoepidemiological analysis (crude prevalence rate) of the archeological data, and epidemiological analysis of historical data included the proportional mortality rate of tuberculosis (PMR-TB) and the mortality rate by tuberculosis (MR-TB). RESULTS: Mean prevalence of TB before the 19th century was approximately 30 %, according to osteoarchaeological data. Historical sources showed that pulmonary TB was responsible for 33 % of total deaths in the city of Marseille during the second half of the 18th century and represented about 20 % of deaths in the four French cities during the 19th century. The mortality rate was 6.5 per thousand inhabitants in the 18th century (Marseille) and stable at 4-5 ‰ during the 19th century before, during, and after the Industrial Revolution period, with the exception of years 1870-1871 (French-Prussian war), when it increased. CONCLUSIONS: Population increase contemporary to the industrialization process did not increase the mortality rate by tuberculosis in France. SIGNIFICANCE: The epidemiological assertion that tuberculosis increased with the Industrial Revolution in cities must be reevaluated. In France, and perhaps in other cities, it was an endemic disease at least a century before, and associated with a higher mortality rate. LIMITATIONS: Reliability and biases inherent to archaeological and historical data prior and during the Industrial Revolution must be taken into account. SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Extension of research to all the French territories (rural and urban areas) is advised.


Assuntos
Peste , Tuberculose Pulmonar , Tuberculose , França/epidemiologia , Humanos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Tuberculose/epidemiologia
20.
Ecol Lett ; 24(10): 2238-2255, 2021 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34310798

RESUMO

Novel pathogen introduction can have drastic consequences for naive host populations, and outcomes can be difficult to predict. Evolutionary rescue (ER) provides a foundation for understanding whether hosts are driven to extinction or survive via adaptation. Currently, patterns of host population dynamics alongside evidence of adaptation are used to infer ER. However, the gap between established ER theory and complexity inherent in natural systems makes interpreting empirical patterns difficult because they can be confounded with ecological drivers of survival under current theory. To bridge this gap, we expand ER theory to include biological selective agents, such as pathogens. We find birth processes to be more important than previously theorised in determining ER potential. We employ a novel framework evaluating ER potential within natural systems and gain ability to identify system characteristics that make ER possible. Identifying these characteristics allows a shift from retrospective observation to a predictive mindset, and our findings suggest that ER occurrence may be more limited than previously thought. We use the plague system of Yersinia pestis infecting Cynomys ludovicianus (black-tailed prairie dogs) and Spermophilus beecheyi (California ground squirrels) as a case study.


Assuntos
Peste , Doenças dos Roedores , Sifonápteros , Yersinia pestis , Animais , Surtos de Doenças , Adaptação ao Hospedeiro , Peste/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Doenças dos Roedores/epidemiologia , Sciuridae
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