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2.
Medicine (Baltimore) ; 100(41): e27414, 2021 Oct 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34731114

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Global variation in the incidence and outcomes of colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with many factors, among which screening policies and early treatment play substantial roles. However, screening programs and intense treatment are expensive and require good health care systems. For CRC, no clear association has yet been established between clinical outcomes and health care disparities. METHOD: We used the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) of CRC as a measure of clinical outcomes for comparison with the Human Development Index (HDI), current health expenditure (CHE), and current health expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product (CHE/GDP) using linear regression analyses. We included 171 countries based on data from the GLOBOCAN 2018 database. RESULTS: We found that the regions with the lowest MIRs for CRC are Oceania and North America. A significant correlation was observed between incidence, mortality and HDI, CHE, and CHE/GDP among the countries enrolled. Furthermore, lower MIRs of CRC significantly correlated with higher HDI, CHE, and CHE/GDP (P < 0.001, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: : CRC MIRs tend to be most favorable in countries with high health care expenditures and a high HDI.


Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Bases de Dados Factuais , Saúde Global , Produto Interno Bruto/estatística & dados numéricos , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Humanos , Incidência
3.
J Environ Sci (China) ; 110: 129-139, 2021 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34593184

RESUMO

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model was applied to investigate the relationship between economic growth and water environment quality based on panel data of Taicang during 2010-2017. The typical inversed-U shaped relationship has been obtained between GDP (gross domestic product) and indicators of ammonia, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), respectively. The EKC turning point appeared when the GDP per capita was around US$2270, which was much lower than those in some developed countries (US$11,200). However, the decoupling between chemical oxygen demand (COD) and GDP per capita occurred even before this period, which should be attributed to the strict COD emission regulation being implemented since 2010. Further, analysis based on the Tapio decoupling coefficient elasticity model analyzed the ammonia nitrogen and economic development of each industry. We found that the agriculture no-point was strong decoupling in 2011-2014, then came to Recessive decoupling. The domestic wastewater had been in a strong decoupling state; Both urban non-point and industry experienced expansive negative decoupling, due to strict policy that prioritizes the environment over development and the investment in improvement of environment and techniques, both of them gradually came to strong decoupling. The result demonstrated that the EKC turning point could be appear in earlier economic stage and the decoupling coefficient elasticity could be improved through taking strong regulation measures.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Desenvolvimento Sustentável , Análise da Demanda Biológica de Oxigênio , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , China , Produto Interno Bruto , Água
4.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 21(1): 1084, 2021 Oct 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34641850

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Spatial allocation of medical resources is closely related to people's health. Thus, it is important to evaluate the abundance of medical resources regionally and explore the spatial heterogeneity of medical resource allocation. METHODS: Using medical geographic big data, this study analyzed 369 Chinese cities and constructed a medical resource evaluation model based on the grading of medical institutions using the Delphi method. It evaluated China's medical resources at three levels (economic sectors, economic zones, and provinces) and discussed their spatial clustering patterns. Geographically weighted regression was used to explore the correlations between the evaluation results and population and gross domestic product (GDP). RESULTS: The spatial heterogeneity of medical resource allocation in China was significant, and the following general regularities were observed: 1) The abundance and balance of medical resources were typically better in the east than in the west, and in coastal areas compared to inland ones. 2) The average primacy ratio of medical resources in Chinese cities by province was 2.30. The spatial distribution of medical resources in the provinces was unbalanced, showing high concentrations in the primate cities. 3) The allocation of medical resources at the provincial level in China was summarized as following a single-growth pole pattern supplemented by bipolar circular allocation and balanced allocation patterns. The agglomeration patterns of medical resources in typical cities were categorized into single-center and balanced development patterns. GDP was highly correlated to the medical evaluation results, while demographic factors showed, low correlations. Large cities and their surrounding areas exhibited obvious response characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide policy-relevant guidance for improving the spatial imbalance of medical resources, strengthening regional public health systems, and promoting government coordination efforts for medical resource allocation at different levels to improve the overall functioning of the medical and health service system and bolster its balanced and synergistic development.


Assuntos
Big Data , Alocação de Recursos , Animais , China/epidemiologia , Produto Interno Bruto , Análise Espacial
6.
Infect Genet Evol ; 95: 105081, 2021 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34520873

RESUMO

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has harshly impacted Italy since its arrival in February 2020. In particular, provinces in Italy's Central and Northern macroregions have dealt with disproportionately greater case prevalence and mortality rates than those in the South. In this paper, we compare the morbidity and mortality dynamics of 16th and 17th century Plague outbreaks with those of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic across Italian regions. We also include data on infectious respiratory diseases which are presently endemic to Italy in order to analyze the regional differences between epidemic and endemic disease. A Growth Curve Analysis allowed for the estimation of time-related intercepts and slopes across the 16th and 17th centuries. Those statistical parameters were later incorporated as criterion variables in multiple General Linear Models. These statistical examinations determined that the Northern macroregion had a higher intercept than the Southern macroregion. This indicated that provinces located in Northern Italy had historically experienced higher plague mortalities than Southern polities. The analyses also revealed that this geographical differential in morbidity and mortality persists to this day, as the Northern macroregion has experienced a substantially higher COVID-19 mortality than the Southern macroregion. These results are consistent with previously published analyses. The only other stable and significant predictor of epidemic disease mortality was foreign urban potential, a measure of the degree of interconnectedness between 16th and 17th century Italian cities. Foreign urban potential was negatively associated with plague slope and positively associated with plague intercept, COVID-19 mortality, GDP per capita, and immigration per capita. Its substantial contribution in predicting both past and present outcomes provides a temporal continuity not seen in any other measure tested here. Overall, this study provides compelling evidence that temporally stable geographical factors, impacting both historical and current foreign pathogen spread above and beyond other hypothesized predictors, underlie the disproportionate impact COVID-19 has had throughout Central and Northern Italian provinces.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Doenças Endêmicas/história , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias , Peste/epidemiologia , COVID-19/história , COVID-19/mortalidade , Cidades , Emigrantes e Imigrantes/estatística & dados numéricos , Geografia , Produto Interno Bruto , História do Século XVI , História do Século XVII , História do Século XXI , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Peste/história , Peste/mortalidade , Prevalência , Análise de Sobrevida
7.
Lancet ; 398(10308): 1317-1343, 2021 10 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34562388

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. METHODS: We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. FINDINGS: In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. INTERPRETATION: Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Financiamento da Assistência à Saúde , Agências Internacionais/economia , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Financiamento Governamental/economia , Financiamento Governamental/organização & administração , Saúde Global/economia , Programas Governamentais/economia , Programas Governamentais/organização & administração , Programas Governamentais/estatística & dados numéricos , Programas Governamentais/tendências , Produto Interno Bruto , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Gastos em Saúde/tendências , Humanos , Agências Internacionais/organização & administração , Cooperação Internacional
8.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 17744, 2021 09 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34493760

RESUMO

A simple method is utilised to study and compare COVID-19 infection dynamics between countries based on curve fitting to publicly shared data of confirmed COVID-19 infections. The method was tested using data from 80 countries from 6 continents. We found that Johnson cumulative density functions (CDFs) were extremely well fitted to the data (R2 > 0.99) and that Johnson CDFs were much better fitted to the tails of the data than either the commonly used normal or lognormal CDFs. Fitted Johnson CDFs can be used to obtain basic parameters of the infection wave, such as the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the days of the start, peak and end of the infection wave, and the duration of the wave's increase and decrease. These parameters can be easily interpreted biologically and used both for describing infection wave dynamics and in further statistical analysis. The usefulness of the parameters obtained was analysed with respect to the relation between the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the population density, the percentage of the population infected during an infection wave, the starting day and the duration of the infection wave in the 80 countries. We found that all the above parameters were significantly associated with GDP per capita, but only the percentage of the population infected was significantly associated with population density. If used with caution, this method has a limited ability to predict the future trajectory and parameters of an ongoing infection wave.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Previsões/métodos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Estudos de Viabilidade , Carga Global da Doença , Produto Interno Bruto/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Distribuição Normal , Densidade Demográfica
9.
Soc Sci Med ; 287: 114270, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34482274

RESUMO

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the importance of strong and resilient health systems. Yet how much a society should spend on healthcare is difficult to determine because additional health expenditures imply lower expenditures on other types of consumption. Furthermore, the welfare-maximizing ("efficient") aggregate amount and composition of health expenditures depend on efficiency concepts at three levels that often get blurred in the debate. While the understanding of efficiency is good at the micro- and meso-levels-that is, relating to minimal spending for a given bundle of treatments and to the optimal mix of different treatments, respectively-this understanding rarely links to the efficiency of aggregate health expenditure at the macroeconomic level. While micro- and meso-efficiency are necessary for macro-efficiency, they are not sufficient. We propose a novel framework of a macro-efficiency score to assess welfare-maximizing aggregate health expenditure. This allows us to assess the extent to which selected major economies underspend or overspend on health relative to their gross domestic products per capita. We find that all economies under consideration underspend on healthcare with the exception of the United States. Underspending is particularly severe in China, India, and the Russian Federation. Our study emphasizes that the major and urgent issue in many countries is underspending on health at the macroeconomic level, rather than containing costs at the microeconomic level.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Gastos em Saúde , Atenção à Saúde , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados Unidos
10.
PLoS One ; 16(9): e0257612, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34547050

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The progress of green credit in China is accelerating, but its development is uneven and insufficient in different regions. And whether the issuance of green credit can effectively promote the improvement of the environment and economy is not well understood. OBJECTIVE: Previous research has found that green credit promotes economic growth through improvement of the industrial structure and green technological innovation. However, these studies have not considered the positive externality of environmental improvement even though environmental improvement and economic growth are requirements of the sustainable development concept. METHODS: We use the chain-mediated model to estimate the impact of green credit issuance on the economic growth of different provinces since the large-scale implementation of green credit in China with data from 2008 to 2016. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: This paper shows that the issuance of green credit can improve labor supply rather than labor productivity through the improvement of air quality to achieve regional economic growth. Such a chain-mediated path is different from the economic growth caused by industrial structural adjustment and green technology innovation. At the national level, every 1% increase in green credit issuance relative to industrial loans will increase the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) by approximately 4.6 yuan, or 0.012%, through air quality and labor supply, accounting for 2.875% of the total effect. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that due to regional industrial structure differences and diminishing marginal effects, the impact of green credit is stronger in the western region than in the eastern and central regions. For every 1% increase in the proportion of green credit issuance relative to industrial loans, the per capita GDP growth achieved through the chain-mediated path is approximately 30.17 yuan in the western region, approximately 6.6 times greater than that at the national level. Within a 95% confidence interval of 5000 bootstrap samples, this path is found to be true, and the chain-mediated effect accounts for approximately 12.96% of the total indirect effect. LIMITATIONS: The limitation of this paper is the measurement of green credit. Although green credit has a large volume, it remains underdeveloped, and there is a lack of perfect indicators. Most existing studies have adopted only alternative or reverse indicators to measure the issuance of green credit. For example, this paper takes the interest expenditure of six high-energy-consuming enterprises as the reverse indicator, which may to a certain extent lead to the overestimation of the issuance of green credit and its impact on the environment and economy. Future research can accurately explore the performance of green credit on the basis of its mature development.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Recursos Humanos/estatística & dados numéricos , China , Produto Interno Bruto , Modelos Teóricos
11.
PLoS One ; 16(9): e0257570, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34550992

RESUMO

In this study, we seek to perform macro analysis of fertility in a panel of 6 selected Pacific Island Countries (PICs, hereafter). The macro analysis with secondary data, mostly obtained from World Bank database, stretched over the period 1990-2019 was stacked randomly in a balanced panel set-up, within which the most preferred fixed effect model is used for multivariate analysis. Pooled OLS and Random effect estimation techniques were applied for comparing results. Categories such as women's empowerment, health, connectivity and cost of living were used to classify proxy variables as regressors for fertility determination. The results indicate variables such as contraceptive prevalence rate, female labour force participation rate and consumer price index (inflation) are negatively correlated with fertility at 1% level, while urbanisation is negatively correlated with fertility rate only at 10% significance level. Real GDP has negative relationship with fertility, however it is not statistically significant. Variables that are positively correlated with fertility but hold limited to no significance effects are female secondary enrolment, female population, mobile subscription and infant mortality rate. It is implied that those variables that are negatively associated with fertility, as well as Real GDP will be the major drivers for achieving replacement level fertility in the long run.


Assuntos
Coeficiente de Natalidade , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Comportamento Contraceptivo , Bases de Dados Factuais , Demografia , Economia , Emprego , Empoderamento , Produto Interno Bruto , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Análise Multivariada , Ilhas do Pacífico , Urbanização
12.
Lancet ; 398(10305): 1091-1104, 2021 09 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34481560

RESUMO

Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore's Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds-namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.


Assuntos
Atenção à Saúde , Reforma dos Serviços de Saúde , Instalações de Saúde/provisão & distribuição , Financiamento da Assistência à Saúde , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Atenção Primária à Saúde/economia , Envelhecimento/fisiologia , Fortalecimento Institucional , Atenção à Saúde/economia , Atenção à Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Produto Interno Bruto/estatística & dados numéricos , Produto Interno Bruto/tendências , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Singapura/epidemiologia
13.
J Environ Manage ; 297: 113360, 2021 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34346402

RESUMO

The triple components of energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic expansion are important to achieving sustained economic activity and sound ecological advancement. This study aims to estimate the impact of wide-ranging parameters on environmental circumstances in South Asian countries. This analysis required two approaches: 1)quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) as an econometric model, and 2) data envelopment analysis (DEA) non-parametric comparable composite index to examine concurrently South Asian nations' data for the 2000-2018 period. The underscored category of the parameters were grouped into four key indices, namely financial, fiscal, human, and energy. The DEA's mathematical composite findings reveal varied circumstances regarding environmental self-maintenance in South Asian nations. India and Pakistan are doing quite well; Afghanistan is abysmal. In addition, the QARDL approach findings reveal that energy use and fiscal indicators abate pollution. Furthermore, the correlation between fiscal decentralization and ecological attributes is strengthened by the excellent level of institutions and human capital progress. There is a unidirectional impact emanating from fiscal devolution, gross domestic product, human capital, eco-innovation, and institutional excellence on carbon dioxide pollution, although different from the other correlations obtained.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Poluição Ambiental , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Modelos Econométricos
14.
J Environ Manage ; 297: 113419, 2021 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34378543

RESUMO

Since climate change mitigation is the central debate of modern literature, the realization of carbon neutrality in response to diversified macroeconomic variables is the most crucial concern of international economies. However, the critical role of trade and renewable electricity output in export diversification-environmental nexus is missing. Therefore, this study investigates the combined influence of trade openness, exports diversification, and renewable electricity output on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) in China from 1989 through 2019. Applying novel time series econometric techniques robust to structural breaks, following new outcomes are obtained. Firstly, long-run equilibrium cointegration existed among the under-analysis variables. Secondly, export diversification and renewable electricity output are predicted to decelerate CO2, supporting carbon neutrality in the long run. Thirdly, trade openness and gross domestic product accelerated the CO2, delaying carbon neutrality accomplishment. Most importantly, significant structural break dummy interacting with trade openness implicated that during the post-2001 era, China's trade openness extensively deteriorated the environmental quality in the face of trade liberalization obtained after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO). Based on empirical results, export diversification and renewable electricity production policies should be mutually non-exclusive and closely coordinated. Further, to counter the carbon emission acceleration impact of trade openness, increasing the share of green tradable products is suggested. Finally, bilateral trade restructuring is recommended to realize the long-term dream of economic sustainability and carbon neutrality.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , China , Eletricidade , Produto Interno Bruto , Energia Renovável
15.
J Manag Care Spec Pharm ; 27(9): 1309-1313, 2021 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34464208

RESUMO

During the Trump administration, members of Congress and the administration proposed the introduction of international reference pricing (IRP) to Medicare in order to reduce US drug spending by benchmarking prices to those in other countries. Many other countries currently use IRP. We examined how US policy proposals compare with the implementation of IRP in the countries that would be referenced by the United States. Nearly two-thirds of comparator countries use IRP but also use other price negotiation strategies. The congressional proposal was most like the approach used by other countries, while the Trump administration's proposals took an uncommon approach to IRP by not adopting additional pricing strategies. DISCLOSURES: This work was supported by Arnold Ventures, which provided overall funding but was not involved in conception, design, or conduct of this work. Kesselheim provides guidance to the Massachusetts Health Policy Commission on its prescription drug price review process under a contract to Brigham and Women's Hospital but does not receive personal funding for this work. Rand has nothing to disclose.


Assuntos
Custos e Análise de Custo/métodos , Internacionalidade , Medicamentos sob Prescrição/economia , Custos de Medicamentos , Produto Interno Bruto , Estados Unidos
16.
Front Public Health ; 9: 710633, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34336780

RESUMO

In 2020, President Xi Jinping put forward a constructing cycle that has been given priority in this study. This particular cycle, when considered within the inner loop and outer loop, promotes the guiding ideology of the new development pattern of the binary economy that exists in recent times. Therefore, to gauge the extent of the promotion of domestic production and consumption, from the perspectives of medical expenses, this study refers to the bootstrap rolling window causality method, which considers the evidence-based medical spending on the consumption Granger causality. The results show that the Granger causality exists between medical expenditure and consumption expenditure at different time interval endpoints. In contrast, however, the variable of consumption does not produce Granger causality between medical expenditure and consumption. In this regard, a series of measures, such as increasing medical insurance expenditure, improvement of the medical insurance system, reduction of the housing price rise, and increasing government investment have been proposed to promote the development of the domestic circular economy.


Assuntos
Gastos em Saúde , Seguro Saúde , China , Financiamento Pessoal , Produto Interno Bruto
17.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0253291, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34197494

RESUMO

Multicollinearity widely exists in empirical studies, which leads to imprecise estimation and even endogeneity when omitted variables are correlated with any regressors. We apply an innovative strategy, different from the usual tools (instrumental variable, ridge regression, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), to estimate the robust determinants of income distribution. We transform panel data into (quasi-) cross-sectional data by removing country and time effects from the data so that all variables become zero mean and orthogonal to the country dummies and time variable, and multicollinearity becomes very low or even disappears with the quasi-cross sectional data in any specifications regardless of country dummies and time variable being included or not. Our contribution is threefold. First, we build a general method to address the multicollinearity issue in panel data, which is to isolate the common contents of correlated variables and ensures robust estimates in different specifications (dynamic or static specifications) and estimators (within- or between-effects estimators). Second, we find no evidence for the Kuznets hypothesis within and across countries; investment is economically and statistically the most robust determinant of income inequality; meanwhile, labor income share shows robustly and consistently positive effects on income inequality, which challenges the related literature. Last, simulations with our estimates show that the total marginal effects of development (regarding GDP, capital stock and investment) on income inequality are very likely to be positive within and between countries except that the impacts on middle-60% and top-quintile income shares are not so likely to increase income inequality across countries.


Assuntos
Produto Interno Bruto/estatística & dados numéricos , Renda/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estudos Transversais , Escolaridade , Humanos
18.
PLoS One ; 16(7): e0254601, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34260653

RESUMO

Previous research has identified a predictive model of how a nation's distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) among agriculture (a), industry (i), and services (s) changes as a country develops. Here we use this national model to analyze the composition of GDP for US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) over time. To characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development we explore a simple system of differential equations proposed in the country-level model. Fitting the model to more than 120 MSAs we find that according to the obtained parameters MSAs can be classified into 6 groups (consecutive, high industry, re-industrializing; each of them also with reversed development direction). The consecutive transfer (a → i → s) is common but does not represent all MSAs examined. At the 95% confidence level, 40% of MSAs belong to types exhibiting an increasing share of GDP from agriculture. In California, such MSAs, which we classify as part of an agriculture renaissance, are found in the Central Valley.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Agricultura , Cidades , Produto Interno Bruto , População Urbana
20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34300085

RESUMO

Organizational risks are present in any activity, so it is important to manage them properly. The jobs are dynamic and involve a series of processes and activities. The entire human resource is exposed to several risks. If these risks are approached correctly, the organizational capacity to achieve its objectives and vision will increase considerably. This paper aims to investigate the relationships between work accidents (fatal and non-fatal) and the causes that contribute to their occurrence (causes dependent on the executor, causes dependent on the means of production, workload-dependent causes, and work-dependent causes-the work environment). The augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test is employed to check the data stationarity series, while the Johansen test determines the cointegration relation of variables. The data have been collected from Romanian organizations. The vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test are applied for speed of adjustment, nature, and direction of variables' relationship. This research demonstrated that both data series are free from the unit-root problem at first difference. The lag length criterions select the third lag for model fitness, and Johansen cointegration declares that variables are cointegrated for the long term. The vector error correction model shows the speed of adjustment from the short to the long run is 83.35% and 42.60% for work and fatal accidents. The study results show that fatal accidents have a series relationship with selected cases for the short run and have a long-run relationship with the means of production. Fatal accidents are directly related to means of production. Fatal accidents are not designed by executors, workload-dependent causes, or work environments in the short run. Fatal accidents are directly related to the means of production and sudden incidents happening in the long run. Fatal accidents are considered by executors, workload-dependent causes, or work environments in the short run. In the long run, fatal accidents are directly related to the means of production and sudden incidents happening.


Assuntos
Acidentes de Trabalho , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Romênia , Local de Trabalho
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