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1.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36673718

RESUMO

COVID-19 has changed the world since 2020, and the field of water specifically, boosting scientific productivity (in terms of published articles). This paper focuses on the influence of COVID-19 on scientific productivity with respect to four water variables: (i) wastewater, (ii) renewable water resources, (iii) freshwater withdrawal, and (iv) access to improved and safe drinking water. The field's literature was firstly reviewed, and then the maps were built, emphasizing the strong connections between COVID-19 and water-related variables. A total of 94 countries with publications that assess COVID-19 vs. water were considered and evaluated for how they clustered. The final step of the research shows that, on average, scientific productivity on the water topic was mostly conducted in countries with lower COVID-19 infection rates but higher development levels as represented by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the human development index (HDI). According to the statistical analysis, the water-related variables are highly significant, with positive coefficients. This validates that countries with higher water-related values conducted more research on the relationship with COVID-19. Wastewater and freshwater withdrawal had the highest impact on the scientific productivity with respect to COVID-19. Access to safe drinking water becomes insignificant in the presence of the development parameters.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Água Potável , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Publicações , Produto Interno Bruto
2.
PLoS One ; 18(1): e0275859, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36595534

RESUMO

Economic strategies and planning are critical to a country's growth and development. China, like many other countries, is seeking the most cost-effective trade deals. Using the Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model, this study examined the impact of a shock to China's macroeconomic factors on trading economies. The major findings reveal that there is no co-movement between the shock in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) and German macroeconomic indicators; however, the shock has a positive and substantial influence on Japan's GDP and Unites States (US)' exchange rate. It is also worth noting that a shock to Chinese trade volume is more susceptible and more disturbing than a shock to US trade volume since it reduces trade volume and causes the Ren Min Bi (RMB) to devalue permanently. Furthermore, the analysis shows that Chinese stock prices have a major influence on German economy since China's GDP, trade volume, and currency appreciate over time when its stock price rises. Finally, the exchange rate shock is beneficial to Germany as it boosts GDP and trade volume but has a negative influence on US stock prices. The current study is, therefore, expected to be a suitable beginning point for the governments and policymakers of trading partners to design an effective trade policy to minimize the impact on major economic variables.


Assuntos
Produto Interno Bruto , China , Alemanha
3.
PLoS One ; 18(1): e0278716, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36701291

RESUMO

The aim of this study is to explore the causal relationship between the economy and the elderly population globally as well as continent-wise. This research was designed as a continent-wide study to investigate the differences between several regions simultaneously. The economy was measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rate while the population aged above 65 as a percentage of the total was considered the elderly population. A panel dataset published by the World Bank for a period of six decades from 1961 to 2020 covering 84 countries was used as data for the analysis. Wavelet coherence was the methodology used for the study since it was considered suitable to present causality as well as the causal direction between the two variables for different sections during the six decades. Thereafter, Granger causality was applied for a cross-country analysis to gain further insights on the causality of individual countries over the years. Findings of the study reveal that the causality and its direction have been changing over time for most continents. Negative correlations with the leading variable interchanging with time are evident for the majority of the regions. Nevertheless, results indicate that in a global perspective, elderly population predominantly leads the economic growth with a positive correlation. Research approach allows ascertaining the short-term and medium-term changes that occurred concerning the direction of the relationship throughout the stipulated period of the study, which could not be drawn by any previous study. Even though region-wise literature is available on this topic, global studies for decades have not been conducted yet.


Assuntos
Dióxido de Carbono , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Humanos , Idoso , Produto Interno Bruto , Causalidade
4.
Sci Total Environ ; 855: 158766, 2023 Jan 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36116669

RESUMO

The Covid-19 crisis has caused several social-related issues; the sanitary is, perhaps, the most significant one. Lockdowns and vaccination were implemented to fight the Covid-19 virus. From a sustainability perspective, Covid-19 has been considered a meaningful crisis driver that has affected nations' economies and social and natural capitals. The literature presents clues that effects appear to be different among countries. Recognizing its importance as public policies for sustainability, this study aims to assess how the sustainability of countries has changed after Covid-19, focusing on countries' economic power that reflects their capacity to face the crisis. A sample of 89 countries is considered, and 2019-2020 are set as base years for data gathering, which covers the first year of the Covid-19 crisis. Sustainability is conceptually supported and represented by a 3-D cube. The natural environment is expressed by the ecological footprint (EF) method, the economic capital by the gross domestic product (GDP), and the social capital by the happiness index. Results show that sustainability of economies was negatively affected after first year of Covid-19 crisis, but in different magnitudes, according to nations' economic power. While the sustainability of the wealthiest economies was slightly changed during 2019-2020 but maintained within the named 'useful-order' world (environmentally unsustainable, productive, and happy), the poorest economies pushed about 169 million people into the worst performance, reaching the 'ineffective' world (environmentally unsustainable, unproductive, and unhappy). Numbers highlight the inequalities of sustainability performance among countries, according to their capacity to face the Covid-19 crisis. The shield of the richest evaluated countries comprising 5 % of the world population is more powerful than the shield of the poorest evaluated countries carrying 67 % of the world population. Results claims for efforts to make different policies and provide economic support differently for countries, since although we are all under the same storm, but in different boats.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Produto Interno Bruto , Meio Ambiente
5.
J Glob Health ; 12: 05049, 2022 Dec 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36527269

RESUMO

Background: New data on COVID-19 may influence the stringency of containment policies, but these potential effect are not understood. We aimed to understand the associations of new COVID-19 cases and deaths with policy stringency globally and regionally. Methods: We modelled the marginal effects of new COVID-19 cases and deaths on policy stringency (scored 0-100) in 175 countries and territories, adjusting for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and health expenditure (% of GDP), and public expenditure on health. The time periods examined were March to August 2020, September 2020 to February 2021, and March to August 2021. Results: Policy response to new cases and deaths was faster and more stringent early in the COVID-19 pandemic (March to August 2020) compared to subsequent periods. New deaths were more strongly associated with stringent policies than new cases. In an average week, one new death per 100 000 people was associated with a stringency increase of 2.1 units in the March to August 2020 period, 1.3 units in the September 2020 to February 2021 period, and 0.7 units in the March to August 2021 period. New deaths in Africa and the Western Pacific were associated with more stringency than in other regions. Higher health expenditure as a percentage of GDP was associated with less stringent policies. Similarly, higher public expenditure on health by governments was mostly associated with less stringency across all three periods. GDP per capita did not have consistent patterns of associations with stringency. Conclusions: The stringency of COVID-19 policies was more strongly associated with new deaths than new cases. Our findings demonstrate the need for enhanced mortality surveillance to ensure policy alignment during health emergencies. Countries that invest less in health or have a lower public expenditure on health may be inclined to enact more stringent policies. This new empirical understanding of COVID-19 policy drivers can help public health officials anticipate and shape policy responses in future health emergencies.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Pandemias , Emergências , Políticas
6.
Front Public Health ; 10: 1050550, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36478719

RESUMO

Introduction: The main purpose of the study is to examine the relationship between health expenditure indicators and economic growth in OECD countries. Methods: In this context, health expenditures and economic indicators data of 21 OECD countries were analyzed by the Driscoll-Kraay standard error approach within the scope of panel data analysis. While Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and income per capita were used as dependent variables, the amount of out-of-pocket health spending, per capita health expenditure, the amount of public health expenditure, the ratio of drug expenditures to gross domestic product, the share of current health expenditures in GDP were used as independent variables. Results: According to the results, in the model (Model 1) where real GDP level was used as the dependent variable, all health expenditure indicators were positively related to the economic growth. When the estimation results of Model 1 are examined, it is predicted that there will be an increase of 0.09% in GDP in case of a 1% increase in the share allocated to health services from GDP. In case of a 1% increase in the amount of out-of-pocket spending on healthcare, it is foreseen that there may be an increase of 0.04% in the real GDP. In the model (Model 2) where the per capita income variable is the dependent variable, it is seen that the increase in out- of-pocket health spending has a decreasing effect on the per capita income level, while the increase in public expenditures has an increasing effect on the per capita income level. From the findings of Model 2, it was found that if a 1% increase in the share of current health expenditures in GDP, there may be an increase of 0.06% in the amount of per capita income. Discussion: Concludingly, it is possible to say that that public resources allocated to health services play an important role in the economic growth.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Gastos em Saúde , Produto Interno Bruto
7.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36497722

RESUMO

In recent years, the impact of global climate change has increasingly revealed that energy transformation has become an indispensable part of achieving carbon neutrality. Thus, the relationship between energy transformation and economic growth has become the focus of academic attention. This study examines energy transition issues by using the panel threshold method. It explores the nonlinear impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth, identifies various factors that lead to this nonlinear impact, and verifies its threshold effect. A comprehensive analysis reveals the following. (1) Overall, renewable energy consumption inhibits real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but, in the long run, the negative impact becomes positive. (2) The threshold effect of energy consumption intensity (EI) is significant, with a threshold value of approximately 3.213. This means that when EI ≤ 3.213, renewable energy consumption promotes economic growth. However, EI > 3.213 indicates that this impact is significantly negative, which means that advancing the energy transition at this time may occur at the expense of real GDP growth. (3) There is also a significant threshold effect in energy transformation, with a threshold value of approximately 6.456. Similarly, when energy consumption transition (ET) ≤ 6.456, renewable energy consumption dampens real economic growth, and the economic cost of promoting renewable energy consumption is greater at this time. Alternatively, when ET > 6.456, this impact is significant at the 1 percent level and significantly positive. (4) There is also a significant threshold effect for emerging technologies, with a threshold value of approximately 1.367. When ET ≤ 1.367, renewable energy consumption dampens real economic growth, and the economic cost of promoting renewable energy consumption is greater. When ET > 1.367, the impact is significantly positive at the 1% level. To promote the positive development of economic growth, climate change, and energy transition, the nonlinear relationship studied in this paper can fill the gaps in existing research in theory and provide a theoretical basis for the government to adopt different policies at different stages of the energy transition to lay the foundation for improving global climate change in practice.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Energia Renovável , Produto Interno Bruto
8.
J. Health Biol. Sci. (Online) ; 10(1): 1-7, 01/jan./2022.
Artigo em Português | LILACS | ID: biblio-1361634

RESUMO

Objetivo: aplicar a modelagem logística da primeira onda da COVID-19, com índice nos países com 20 maiores Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Métodos: foi utilizada a modelagem matemática de crescimento logístico, considerando os seguintes parâmetros: número cumulativo de casos (C), tamanho final da epidemia na onda única de um surto (K), taxa intrínseca de crescimento (y) e tempo de inflexão (τ). Resultados: o Brasil apresentou maior número de casos e mortalidade, e os Estados Unidos da América (EUA) maior número de casos absolutos. A Coreia do Sul evidenciou o menor ponto de inflexão de 15,3 dias, enquanto o maior foi da Indonésia, com 213,9 dias. Na análise entre o ponto de inflexão e casos acumulados (/100 mil habitantes), observou-se correlação positiva moderada significativa (r=0,629 e p=0,003); (r=0,532 e p=0,016). Conclusão: o reconhecimento do comportamento de uma epidemia por meio da modelagem matemática torna possível determinar a propagação de uma epidemia, visto que, com a possibilidade de captar a dinâmica de uma epidemia, torna-se possível prever a necessidade de medidas públicas antecipadas e, consequentemente, diminuição da mortalidade global.


Objective: to apply logistic modeling of the first wave of COVID-19 in countries with the 20 highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Methods: logistic growth mathematical modeling was used, considering the following parameters: cumulative number of cases (C), the final size of the epidemic in the single wave of an outbreak (K), intrinsic growth rate (y), and inflection time (τ). Results: Brazil showed the highest number of cases and mortality, and the United States of America (USA) had the highest number of absolute cases. South Korea showed the lowest inflection point of 15.3 days, while the highest infection point was Indonesia, with 213.9 days. In the analysis between the inflection point and cumulative cases (/100,000 population), a moderate significant positive correlation was observed (r=0.629 and p=0.003); (r=0.532 and p=0.016). Conclusion: the recognition of the behavior of an epidemic through mathematical modeling makes it possible to determine the spread of an epidemic, since, with the possibility of capturing the dynamics of an epidemic, it becomes possible to predict the need for anticipated public measures and, consequently, decrease in overall mortality.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Modelos Logísticos , Produto Interno Bruto , Epidemias
10.
Front Public Health ; 10: 954080, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36388351

RESUMO

There are numerous factors that affect human health. Among others, environmental degradation, bad governance, and extensive economic growth are regarded as more destructive for health-related issues. To explore the nexus of the said factors and extend the scholarly literature, the current study aims to analyze the influence of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, governance indicators, and gross domestic product (GDP) on human health expenditures-captured by domestic health expenditures and capital health expenditures. Specifically, this study contrasted variables including regulatory quality (RQ), rule of law (RL), GDP, GHG emissions, and human capital (HC) with that of human health expenditure. Covering the period from 1996 to 2020, this study uses time series specifications in the case of China, which is one of the largest pollution-emitting economies across the globe. The empirical results found that the long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the variables. For the long-run coefficients, this study utilizes the fully modified ordinary least square, dynamic ordinary least square, and canonical cointegration regression, suggesting that economic development and RQ are adversely affecting human health expenditure. However, GHG emissions, RQ, and HC significantly improve human health by increasing health expenditure in China. Based on the empirical results, policies are suggested regarding human health improvement, improved governance quality, and environmental sustainability. The study discusses the empirical conclusions and implications as per COP26 declarations.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Gastos em Saúde , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Poluição Ambiental/análise , China
11.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0278071, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36417448

RESUMO

The stress placed on global power supply systems by the growing demand for electricity has been steadily increasing in recent years. Thus, accurate forecasting of energy demand and consumption is essential to maintain the lifestyle and economic standards of nations sustainably. However, multiple factors, including climate change, affect the energy demands of local, national, and global power grids. Therefore, effective analysis of multivariable data is required for the accurate estimation of energy demand and consumption. In this context, some studies have suggested that LSTM and CNN models can be used to model electricity demand accurately. However, existing works have utilized training based on either electricity loads and weather observations or national metrics e.g., gross domestic product, imports, and exports. This binary segregation has degraded forecasting performance. To resolve this shortcoming, we propose a CNN-LSTM model based on a multivariable augmentation approach. Based on previous studies, we adopt 1D convolution and pooling to extract undiscovered features from temporal sequences. LSTM outperforms RNN on vanishing gradient problems while retaining its benefits regarding time-series variables. The proposed model exhibits near-perfect forecasting of electricity consumption, outperforming existing models. Further, state-level analysis and training are performed, demonstrating the utility of the proposed methodology in forecasting regional energy consumption. The proposed model outperforms other models in most areas.


Assuntos
Fontes de Energia Elétrica , Eletricidade , Produto Interno Bruto , Previsões
12.
Front Public Health ; 10: 1005060, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36339222

RESUMO

In the current times, the global economies and international organizations declared that pollution is one of the prominent causes of declined human health. Still, most literature is biased toward economic sustainability and ignores such vital issues. The current study tends to identify the factors affecting public health in the Group of Seven economies except for Italy (G6). Specifically, this study aims to investigate the influence of household waste (HHW), bureaucratic quality (BQ), democratic accountability (DA), urbanization growth (URP), GDP per capita, and renewable energy use (EPR) on public health, throughout 1996-2020. This study uses advanced panel data approaches and finds the heterogeneity of slope coefficients, the dependence of cross-sections, and the persistence of cointegration between the variables. The asymmetric distribution of data leads to employing the novel method of moment quantile regression. The estimated results reveal that URP, GDPPC, and EPR significantly increase domestic general government health expenditures, improving public health. However, HHW and BQ adversely affect public health by reducing health expenditures. The robustness of the results is tested via utilizing the panel quantile regression. Based on the empirical findings, this study suggests policies regarding the improvement in public health expenditure, R&D investment, spending in renewable energy sector, and strengthening of the institutional quality.


Assuntos
Gastos em Saúde , Saúde Pública , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , Serviços de Saúde , Investimentos em Saúde
13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36360863

RESUMO

Background: As of 7 January 2022, it is estimated that 5.5 million people worldwide have died from COVID-19. Although the full impact of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) on healthcare systems worldwide is still unknown, we must consider the socio-economic impact. For instance, it has resulted in an 11% decrease in the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in the European Union. We aim to provide valuable information for policymakers by analysing widely available epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators using Spanish data. Methods: Secondary analysis of routinely available data from various official data sources covering the period from 1 March 2020 to 31 March 2021. To measure the impact of COVID-19 in the population, a set of epidemiological and socioeconomic indicators were used. The interrelationships between these socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators were analysed using Pearson's correlation. Their behaviour was grouped according to their greater capacity to measure the impact of the pandemic and was compared to identify those that are more appropriate to monitor future health crises (primary outcome) using multivariate analysis of canonical correlation for estimating the correlation between indicators using different units of analysis. Results: Data from different time points were analysed. The excess of mortality was negatively correlated with the number of new companies created during the pandemic. The increase in COVID-19 cases was associated with the rise of unemployed workers. Neither GDP nor per capita debt was related to any epidemiological indicators considered in the annual analysis. The canonical models of socioeconomic and epidemiological indicators of each of the time periods analysed were statistically significant (0.80-0.91 p < 0.05). Conclusions: In conclusion, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, excess mortality, incidence, lethality, and unemployment constituted the best group of indicators to measure the impact of the pandemic. These indicators, widely available, could provide valuable information to policymakers and higher management in future outbreaks.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , Espanha/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Produto Interno Bruto
14.
PLoS One ; 17(11): e0277433, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36355854

RESUMO

Urban scaling analysis has shown that various aggregated urban quantities obey power-law relationships with the population size. Despite the rapid progress, direct empirical evidence that shows how the power-law exponents ß depend on the spatial organization of the GDP has been lacking. Moreover, urban scaling studies are hardly reproduced in developing countries due to inadequate official statistics. We tackle these issues by performing urban scaling analysis on Indonesian cities using globally harmonized functional cities delineations and global-scale gridded Gross Domestic Product (GDP) datasets. First, we observe that the GDP and area of Indonesian cities scale linearly with the population size. For GDP in particular, the deviations from the scaling law follow a geographical pattern. Second, we determine the economic hotspots in each city and observe that the area of the hotspots scales mildly sublinear with the population size. Surprisingly, the GDP of hotspots also scales sublinearly with the population size, indicating a lack of increasing returns due to scaling. Third, by classifying the cities based on the spatial organization of the GDP in two dimensions (heterogeneity and spatial dispersion) and examining the scaling exponents of each class, we discover a non-trivial relation between scaling behavior and the spatial organization of the GDP. Spatial dispersion strongly affects the scaling behavior in heterogeneous cities, while such effect is weakened for homogeneous cities. Finally, we find that the scaling effect in terms of economies of scale (sublinearity of area) and increasing returns (superlinearity of GDP) is stronger for Indonesian cities with spatially compact GDP distribution.


Assuntos
Produto Interno Bruto , Humanos , Cidades , Indonésia , Densidade Demográfica , População Urbana
15.
Health Res Policy Syst ; 20(Suppl 1): 122, 2022 Nov 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36443859

RESUMO

BACKGROUND:  Population ageing will accelerate rapidly in Mongolia in the coming decades. We explore whether this is likely to have deleterious effects on economic growth and health spending trends and whether any adverse consequences might be moderated by ensuring better health among the older population. METHODS:  Fixed-effects models are used to estimate the relationship between the size of the older working-age population (55-69 years) and economic growth from 2020 to 2100 and to simulate how growth is modified by better health among the older working-age population, as measured by a 5% improvement in years lived with disability. We next use 2017 data on per capita health spending by age from the National Health Insurance Fund to project how population ageing will influence public health spending from 2020 to 2060 and how this relationship may change if the older population (≥ 60 years) ages in better or worse health than currently. RESULTS:  The projected increase in the share of the population aged 55-69 years is associated with a 4.1% slowdown in per-person gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2020 and 2050 and a 5.2% slowdown from 2020 to 2100. However, a 5% reduction in disability rates among the older population offsets these effects and adds around 0.2% to annual per-person GDP growth in 2020, rising to nearly 0.4% per year by 2080. Baseline projections indicate that population ageing will increase public health spending as a share of GDP by 1.35 percentage points from 2020 to 2060; this will occur slowly, adding approximately 0.03 percentage points to the share of GDP annually. Poorer health among the older population (aged ≥ 60 years) would see population ageing add an additional 0.17 percentage points above baseline estimates, but healthy ageing would lower baseline projections by 0.18 percentage points, corresponding to potential savings of just over US$ 46 million per year by 2060. CONCLUSIONS:  Good health at older ages could moderate the potentially negative effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia. Continued investment in the health of older people will improve quality of life, while also enhancing the sustainability of public budgets.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento Saudável , Humanos , Idoso , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Mongólia , Qualidade de Vida , Produto Interno Bruto
16.
Health Res Policy Syst ; 20(1): 130, 2022 Nov 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36437476

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted lives across all countries and communities. It significantly reduced the global economic output and dealt health systems across the world a serious blow. There is growing evidence showing the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact it has on health systems, which should help to draw lessons for further consolidating and realizing universal health coverage (UHC) in all countries, complemented by more substantial government commitment and good governance, and continued full implementation of crucial policies and plans to avert COVID-19 and similar pandemic threats in the future. Therefore, the objective of the study was to assess the impact of good governance, economic growth and UHC on the COVID-19 infection rate and case fatality rate (CFR) among African countries. METHODS: We employed an analytical ecological study design to assess the association between COVID-19 CFR and infection rate as dependent variables, and governance, economic development and UHC as independent variables. We extracted data from publicly available databases (i.e., Worldometer, Worldwide Governance Indicators, Our World in Data and WHO Global Health Observatory Repository). We employed a multivariable linear regression model to examine the association between the dependent variables and the set of explanatory variables. STATA version 14 software was used for data analysis. RESULTS: All 54 African countries were covered by this study. The median observed COVID-19 CFR and infection rate were 1.65% and 233.46%, respectively. Results of multiple regression analysis for predicting COVID-19 infection rate indicated that COVID-19 government response stringency index (ß = 0.038; 95% CI 0.001, 0.076; P = 0.046), per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (ß = 0.514; 95% CI 0.158, 0.87; P = 0.006) and infectious disease components of UHC (ß = 0.025; 95% CI 0.005, 0.045; P = 0.016) were associated with COVID-19 infection rates, while noncommunicable disease components of UHC (ß = -0.064; 95% CI -0.114; -0.015; P = 0.012), prevalence of obesity among adults (ß = 0.112; 95% CI 0.044; 0.18; P = 0.002) and per capita GDP (ß = -0.918; 95% CI -1.583; -0.254; P = 0.008) were associated with COVID-19 CFR. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that good governance practices, favourable economic indicators and UHC have a bearing on COVID-19 infection rate and CFR. Effective health system response through a primary healthcare approach and progressively taking measures to grow their economy and increase funding to the health sector to mitigate the risk of similar future pandemics would require African countries to move towards UHC, improve governance practices and ensure economic growth in order to reduce the impact of pandemics on populations.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Cobertura Universal do Seguro de Saúde , Humanos , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Pandemias , Produto Interno Bruto
17.
Front Public Health ; 10: 930780, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36438209

RESUMO

This study explores the inherent linkage mechanism between environmental pollution and economic growth using a non-linear MS (M)-VAR (p) model. The results indicate that, first, the growth rates of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and SO2 emissions are in a state of significant inertia. Second, when the system was in a medium-growth regime, the growth rates of SO2 emissions and GDP had a positive correlation, characterized by lower probability and weaker durability. Third, when the system was in a high- or low-growth regime, their growth rates were negatively correlated, characterized by higher probability and stronger durability. Overall, economic growth increases environmental pollution emissions, which intensifies as well as inhibits economic growth. The correlation and sustainability of SO2 emissions and GDP are closely related to the regional status of the entire system. This study is helpful in analyzing the reasons for the nonlinear linkage mechanism between environmental pollution and economic growth.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento Econômico , Poluição Ambiental , Produto Interno Bruto , China
18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36430118

RESUMO

In 2015, the services sector contributed about 58 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which was a significant increase from the 47.6 percent observed in 2005, and a shift from the mining, agriculture, and manufacturing sector. This increase calls to support services as the catalyst for sustained economic development as indicated by the structural transformation and modernization theories. The main objective of this paper was to examine the relationship between and the impact of services on the economic development in Botswana and make recommendations on how Botswana can apply well-directed policies to improve its services sector and diversify its impact on other sectors and GDP, making it less reliant on mining which is vulnerable to price volatilities. The paper applied econometric modeling and results of the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test for cointegration indicate that services and other industries services, agriculture, industry, mining, and investment impact GDP over the short and long run. These variables impacted GDP and converged to equilibrium at the speed of 46.89 percent, with a percent change in services in the short and long run impacting GDP by 0.328 and 0.241 percentages, respectively, and the outcome of the Wald test indicated causality from services to GDP growth. The services sectors have contributed over 40 percent to the country's GDP from 1995 to the present, though the sectors have not gone without challenges with limitations such as limited infrastructure development; poverty and inequality; unemployment of over 20 percent; disease, which has dampened productivity; and lack of proper governance and accountability, which has created a habitat for an increase in cases of corruption in state and private entities. The findings of the study with the lessons learned from other studies with similar findings recommend that the government of Botswana should formulate suitable policies and strategies for services diversification. This is by expanding the market for the sector in areas such as tourism that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, escalating investments by instituting strategies to attract and grow domestic and foreign investments, and improve on management of institutions and resources.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , Botsuana , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Produto Interno Bruto
19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36361338

RESUMO

We evaluated the influence of population size (POP), HDI (Human Development Index) and GDP (gross domestic product) on the COVID-19 pandemic in the Southeast region of Brazil, between February 2020 and May 2021. METHODS: Cases, deaths, incidence coefficient, mortality rate and lethality rate were compared among states. The cities were divided into strata according to POP, GDP, and HDI. Data were compared by Welch's ANOVA, nonlinear polynomial regression, and Spearman's correlation test (rS). RESULTS: The highest incidence coefficient (p < 0.0001) and mortality rate (p < 0.05) were observed in the states of Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro, respectively. Until the 45th week, the higher the POP, the higher the mortality rate (p < 0.01), with no differences in the remaining period (p > 0.05). There was a strong positive correlation between POP size and the number of cases (rS = 0.92, p < 0.0001) and deaths (rS = 0.88, p < 0.0001). The incidence coefficient and mortality rate were lower (p < 0.0001) for low GDP cities. Both coefficients were higher in high- and very high HDI cities (p < 0.0001). The lethality rate was higher in the state of Rio de Janeiro (p < 0.0001), in large cities (p < 0.0001), in cities with medium GDP (p < 0.0001), and in those with high HDI (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Both incidence and mortality were affected by time, with minimal influence of POP, GDP and HDI.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , Produto Interno Bruto , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Densidade Demográfica , Brasil/epidemiologia , Pandemias
20.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(10): e0010826, 2022 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36215332

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease that has caused extensive ravages worldwide since being declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Unlike initially predicted by WHO, the incidence and severity of COVID-19 appeared milder in many Low-to-Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). To explain this noticeable disparity between countries, many hypotheses, including socio-demographic and geographic factors, have been put forward. This study aimed to estimate the possible association of parasitic diseases with COVID-19 as either protective agents or potential risk factors. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A country-level ecological study using publicly available data of countries was conducted. We conceptualized the true number of COVID-19 infections based on a function of test positivity rate (TPR) and employed linear regression analysis to assess the association between the outcome and parasitic diseases. We considered demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic confounders previously suggested. A notable heterogeneity was observed across WHO regions. The countries in Africa (AFRO) showed the lowest rates of COVID-19 incidence, and the countries in the Americas (AMRO) presented the highest. The multivariable model results were computed using 165 countries, excluding missing values. In the models analyzed, lower COVID-19 incidence rates were consistently observed in malaria-endemic countries, even accounting for potential confounding variables, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, the population aged 65 and above, and differences in the duration of COVID-19. However, the other parasitic diseases were not significantly associated with the spread of the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study suggests that malaria prevalence is an essential factor that explains variability in the observed incidence of COVID-19 cases at the national level. Potential associations of COVID-19 with schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) are worthy of further investigation but appeared unlikely, based on this analysis, to be critical factors of the variability in COVID-19 epidemic trends. The quality of publicly accessible data and its ecological design constrained our research, with fundamental disparities in monitoring and testing capabilities between countries. Research at the subnational or individual level should be conducted to explore hypotheses further.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Produto Interno Bruto , Fatores de Risco , Solo , Saúde Global
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