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1.
Methods Mol Biol ; 2738: 17-30, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37966590

RESUMO

Bacteriophages, commonly referred to as phages, are viruses that infect bacteria and are among the most numerous microorganisms on the planet. They occur throughout nature occupying every habitat where their bacterial hosts can be found. Within these communities, phages are responsible for shaping the bacterial community structure and function through their interactions. Phages shape the community structure and function within the human gut but are also able to influence the human host. As such, there is increased interest in understanding the composition and activity of the gastrointestinal phages, although these studies have been hindered by the difficulties accompanying the study of the human gut. Here, we summarize the methods and findings pertaining to the diversity of the human gastrointestinal phages.


Assuntos
Bacteriófagos , Trato Gastrointestinal , Humanos , Bacteriófagos/genética , Trato Gastrointestinal/virologia
2.
Front Cell Infect Microbiol ; 13: 1288914, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37965255

RESUMO

Objective: The Omicron BA.5.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2 has undergone several evolutionary adaptations, leading to multiple subvariants. Rapid and accurate characterization of these subvariants is essential for effective treatment, particularly in critically ill patients. This study leverages Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS) to elucidate the clinical and immunological features across different Omicron BA.5.2 subvariants. Methods: We enrolled 28 patients infected with the Omicron variant, hospitalized in Zhangjiajie People's Hospital, Hunan, China, between January 20, 2023, and March 31, 2023. Throat swabs were collected upon admission for NGS-based identification of Omicron subvariants. Clinical data, including qSOFA scores and key laboratory tests, were collated. A detailed analysis of lymphocyte subsets was conducted to ascertain the extent of immune cell damage and disease severity. Results: Patients were infected with various Omicron subvariants, including BA.5.2.48, BA.5.2.49, BA.5.2.6, BF.7.14, DY.1, DY.2, DY.3, and DY.4. Despite having 43 identical mutation sites, each subvariant exhibited unique marker mutations. Critically ill patients demonstrated significant depletion in total lymphocyte count, T cells, CD4, CD8, B cells, and NK cells (P < 0.05). However, there were no significant differences in clinical and immunological markers across the subvariants. Conclusion: This study reveals that critically ill patients infected with different Omicron BA.5.2 subvariants experience similar levels of cellular immune dysfunction and inflammatory response. Four mutations - ORF1a:K3353R, ORF1a:L3667F, ORF1b:S997P, S:T883I showed correlation with immunological responses although this conclusion suffers from the small sample size. Our findings underscore the utility of NGS in the comprehensive assessment of infectious diseases, contributing to more effective clinical decision-making.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Estado Terminal , População do Leste Asiático , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/imunologia , COVID-19/virologia
3.
J Glob Health ; 13: 06051, 2023 Nov 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37994839

RESUMO

Background: With the emergence of new variants and sub-lineages of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), reinfections can significantly impact herd immunity, vaccination policies, and decisions on other public health measures. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to synthesise the global evidence on SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in the pre-Omicron era. Methods: We searched five global databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL Plus, Global Health, WHO COVID-19) on 12 May 2022 and 28 July 2023 and three Chinese databases (CNKI, Wanfang, CQvip) on 16 October 2022 for articles reporting incidence and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection before the period of Omicron (B.1.1.529) predominance. We assessed risk of bias using Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools and conducted meta-analyses with random effects models to estimate the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among initially infected cases and hospitalisation and mortality proportions among reinfected ones. Results: We identified 7593 studies and extracted data from 64 included ones representing 21 countries. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was 1.16% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.33) based on 11 639 247 initially infected cases, with ≥45 days between the two infections. Healthcare providers (2.28%; 95% CI = 1.37-3.40) had a significantly higher risk of reinfection than the general population (1.00%; 95% CI = 0.81-1.20), while young adults aged 18 to 35 years (1.01%; 95% CI = 0.8-1.25) had a higher reinfection burden than other age groups (children <18 years old: 0.57%; 95% CI = 0.39-0.79, older adults aged 36-65 years old: 0.53%; 95% CI = 0.41-0.65, elderly >65 years old: 0.37%; 95% CI = 0.15-0.66). Among the reinfected cases, 8.12% (95% CI = 5.30-11.39) were hospitalised, 1.31% (95% CI = 0.29-2.83) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 0.71% (95% CI = 0.02-2.01) died. Conclusions: Our data suggest a relatively low risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the pre-Omicron era, but the risk of hospitalisation was relatively high among the reinfected cases. Considering the possibility of underdiagnosis, the reinfection burden may be underestimated. Registration: PROSPERO: CRD42023449712.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Reinfecção , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Incidência , Reinfecção/epidemiologia , Reinfecção/virologia , SARS-CoV-2
4.
Nature ; 623(7986): 423-431, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37914927

RESUMO

Genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) help us to understand human pathologies and develop new therapies, yet faithfully recapitulating human diseases in mice is challenging. Advances in genomics have highlighted the importance of non-coding regulatory genome sequences, which control spatiotemporal gene expression patterns and splicing in many human diseases1,2. Including regulatory extensive genomic regions, which requires large-scale genome engineering, should enhance the quality of disease modelling. Existing methods set limits on the size and efficiency of DNA delivery, hampering the routine creation of highly informative models that we call genomically rewritten and tailored GEMMs (GREAT-GEMMs). Here we describe 'mammalian switching antibiotic resistance markers progressively for integration' (mSwAP-In), a method for efficient genome rewriting in mouse embryonic stem cells. We demonstrate the use of mSwAP-In for iterative genome rewriting of up to 115 kb of a tailored Trp53 locus, as well as for humanization of mice using 116 kb and 180 kb human ACE2 loci. The ACE2 model recapitulated human ACE2 expression patterns and splicing, and notably, presented milder symptoms when challenged with SARS-CoV-2 compared with the existing K18-hACE2 model, thus representing a more human-like model of infection. Finally, we demonstrated serial genome writing by humanizing mouse Tmprss2 biallelically in the ACE2 GREAT-GEMM, highlighting the versatility of mSwAP-In in genome writing.


Assuntos
Enzima de Conversão de Angiotensina 2 , COVID-19 , Modelos Animais de Doenças , Engenharia Genética , Genoma , Proteína Supressora de Tumor p53 , Animais , Humanos , Camundongos , Alelos , Enzima de Conversão de Angiotensina 2/genética , Enzima de Conversão de Angiotensina 2/metabolismo , COVID-19/genética , COVID-19/virologia , DNA/genética , Resistência Microbiana a Medicamentos/genética , Engenharia Genética/métodos , Genoma/genética , Células-Tronco Embrionárias Murinas/metabolismo , SARS-CoV-2/metabolismo , Serina Endopeptidases/genética , Proteína Supressora de Tumor p53/genética
5.
J Med Virol ; 95(11): e29217, 2023 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37933090

RESUMO

As a key immune cell in the brain, microglia are essential for protecting the central nervous system (CNS) from viral infections, including HIV. Microglia possess functional Toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3), a key viral sensor for activating interferon (IFN) signaling pathway-mediated antiviral immunity. We, therefore, studied the effect of poly (I:C), a synthetic ligand of TLR3, on the activation of the intracellular innate immunity against HIV in human iPSC-derived microglia (iMg). We found that poly (I:C) treatment of iMg effectively inhibits HIV infection/replication at both mRNA and protein levels. Investigations of the mechanisms revealed that TLR3 activation of iMg by poly (I:C) induced the expression of both type I and type III IFNs. Compared with untreated cells, the poly (I:C)-treated iMg expressed significantly higher levels of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs) with known anti-HIV activities (ISG15, MxB, Viperin, MxA, and OAS-1). In addition, TLR3 activation elicited the expression of the HIV entry coreceptor CCR5 ligands (CC chemokines) in iMg. Furthermore, the transcriptional profile analysis showed that poly (I:C)-treated cells had the upregulated IFN signaling genes (ISG15, ISG20, IFITM1, IFITM2, IFITM3, IFITM10, APOBEC3A, OAS-2, MxA, and MxB) and the increased CC chemokine signaling genes (CCL1, CCL2, CCL3, CCL4, and CCL15). These observations indicate that TLR3 is a potential therapy target for activating the intracellular innate immunity against HIV infection/replication in human microglial cells. Therefore, further studies with animal models and clinical specimens are necessary to determine the role of TLR3 activation-driven antiviral response in the control and elimination of HIV in infected host cells.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , Células-Tronco Pluripotentes Induzidas , Microglia , Receptor 3 Toll-Like , Humanos , Células Cultivadas , Imunidade Inata , Microglia/virologia , Poli I-C/farmacologia , Receptor 3 Toll-Like/genética
8.
Cell Death Dis ; 14(11): 719, 2023 11 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37925449

RESUMO

Autophagy is important for the removal, degradation and recycling of damaged organelles, proteins, and lipids through the degradative action of lysosomes. In addition to its catabolic function, autophagy is important in cancer and viral-mediated tumorigenesis, including Human Papillomavirus (HPV) positive cancers. HPV infection is a major risk factor in a subset of head and neck cancer (HNC), for which no targeted therapies are currently available. Herein, we assessed autophagy function in HPV-positive HNC. We showed that HPV-positive HNC cells presented a transcriptional and functional impairment of the autophagic process compared to HPV-negative cells, which were reactivated by knocking down HPV E6/E7 oncoproteins, the drivers of cellular transformation. We found that the oncoprotein c-MYC was stabilized and triggered in HPV-positive cell lines. This resulted in the reduced binding of the MiT/TFE transcription factors to their autophagy targets due to c-MYC competition. Thus, the knock-down of c-MYC induced the upregulation of autophagic and lysosomal genes in HPV-positive HNC cells, as well as the increase of autophagic markers at the protein level. Moreover, HPV oncoprotein E7 upregulated the expression of the phosphatase inhibitor CIP2A, accounting for c-MYC upregulation and stability in HPV+ HNC cells. CIP2A mRNA expression negatively correlated with autophagy gene expression in tumor tissues from HNC patients, showing, for the first time, its implication in a transcriptional autophagic context. Both CIP2A and c-MYC knock-down, as well as pharmacological downregulation of c-MYC, resulted in increased resistance to cisplatin treatment. Our results not only show a novel way by which HPV oncoproteins manipulate the host machinery but also provide more insights into the role of autophagy in chemoresistance, with possible implications for targeted HPV-positive HNC therapy.


Assuntos
Autofagia , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Infecções por Papillomavirus , Proteínas Proto-Oncogênicas c-myc , Humanos , Cisplatino/farmacologia , Cisplatino/uso terapêutico , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/genética , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/virologia , Proteínas E7 de Papillomavirus/genética , Proteínas E7 de Papillomavirus/metabolismo , Infecções por Papillomavirus/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por Papillomavirus/genética , Proteínas Proto-Oncogênicas c-myc/genética , Proteínas Proto-Oncogênicas c-myc/metabolismo
9.
Science ; 382(6671): 674-678, 2023 11 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37943920

RESUMO

Interactions between species catalyze the evolution of multiscale ecological networks, including both nested and modular elements that regulate the function of diverse communities. One common assumption is that such complex pattern formation requires spatial isolation or long evolutionary timescales. We show that multiscale network structure can evolve rapidly under simple ecological conditions without spatial structure. In just 21 days of laboratory coevolution, Escherichia coli and bacteriophage Φ21 coevolve and diversify to form elaborate cross-infection networks. By measuring ~10,000 phage-bacteria infections and testing the genetic basis of interactions, we identify the mechanisms that create each component of the multiscale pattern. Our results demonstrate how multiscale networks evolve in parasite-host systems, illustrating Darwin's idea that simple adaptive processes can generate entangled banks of ecological interactions.


Assuntos
Coevolução Biológica , Colífagos , Escherichia coli , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita , Colífagos/genética , Escherichia coli/genética , Escherichia coli/virologia , Interações Hospedeiro-Parasita/genética
10.
Hum Vaccin Immunother ; 19(3): 2276619, 2023 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38013426

RESUMO

Acute gastroenteritis (AGE) caused by rotavirus (RV) remains a public health issue in China. To accelerate the mass rotavirus vaccination, it is important to inform the policy maker, and the public of the economic burden caused by rotavirus infection. A meta-analysis was conducted applying standardized algorithms. Articles published before January 1, 2023, in English and Chinese were searched through PubMed, CNKI, and WanFang Data. Studies with cost analysis of RV AGE were included. A random-effects model was applied to synthesize the total cost of RV AGE from the societal perspective. A prospective survey aimed to measure the cost of RV AGE was conducted in 2021 and 2022 in Shaoxing city, Zhejiang province, that can represent the developed region. The cost data was applied as deviation indicator, in comparison with the pooled estimate generated from meta-analysis. Totally 286 articles were identified, and eventually 12 studies were included. The pooled total social cost of RV AGE was US$282.1 (95%CI: US$213.4-350.7). The pooled private cost of RV AGE was US$206.4 (95%CI: US$155.2-257.5). RV AGE hospitalized and RV AGE incurred in developed regions caused remarkable higher burden (US$631.2 [95%CI: US$512.6-749.8], and US$333.6 [95%CI: US$234.1-433.2] respectively), compared to RV AGE treated at outpatient, and incurred in less developed regions. Our study demonstrates that RV AGE causes a significant economic burden in China. Given the promising effectiveness and highly cost-effective, introduction of rotavirus vaccines in national immunization programs could substantially reduce the economic burden in China.


Assuntos
Gastroenterite , Infecções por Rotavirus , Vacinas contra Rotavirus , Humanos , Lactente , Análise Custo-Benefício , População do Leste Asiático , Gastroenterite/epidemiologia , Gastroenterite/prevenção & controle , Gastroenterite/virologia , Vacinação em Massa , Estudos Prospectivos , Rotavirus , Infecções por Rotavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Rotavirus/prevenção & controle , Pré-Escolar
11.
Cancer Control ; 30: 10732748231218088, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38015627

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The epidemiology of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers has changed since the development of the multivalent vaccine. This is evidenced by the decline in incidence of cervical cancers in the post-vaccine era. By contrast, studies have reported the rise in incidence of these cancers in males. Though little is known regarding HPV-associated cancers in males, Hispanic males have been largely excluded from research on these cancers. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in late-stage diagnosis of HPV-associated cancers (oropharyngeal, anorectal, or penile) among subgroups of Hispanic males in the U.S. METHODS: We performed a population-based retrospective cohort study using the 2005-2016 North American Association of Central Cancer Registries Cancer in North America Deluxe data file (n = 9242). Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used in studying late-stage diagnosis. RESULTS: There were no differences in late-stage diagnosis of oropharyngeal cancer between Hispanic subgroups. Higher odds of late-stage penile cancers were observed among Mexican and Puerto Rican males relative to European Spanish males. Lower odds of late-stage anorectal cancers were observed among Central or South American and Puerto Rican males. Having Medicaid or no insurance were associated with late-stage diagnosis for all cancers. CONCLUSION: Certain subgroups of Hispanic males have higher odds of late-stage HPV-associated cancer diagnosis based on country of origin and insurance status. These findings call for improved efforts to increase HPV vaccination, particularly among these subgroups of Hispanic males. Efforts to improve health care access and early detection from health care providers are also needed.


Assuntos
Neoplasias , Infecções por Papillomavirus , Humanos , Masculino , Hispânico ou Latino , Papillomavirus Humano , Infecções por Papillomavirus/complicações , Infecções por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Papillomavirus/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/virologia
12.
Nature ; 623(7987): 608-615, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37938768

RESUMO

Cell therapies have yielded durable clinical benefits for patients with cancer, but the risks associated with the development of therapies from manipulated human cells are understudied. For example, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms of toxicities observed in patients receiving T cell therapies, including recent reports of encephalitis caused by reactivation of human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6)1. Here, through petabase-scale viral genomics mining, we examine the landscape of human latent viral reactivation and demonstrate that HHV-6B can become reactivated in cultures of human CD4+ T cells. Using single-cell sequencing, we identify a rare population of HHV-6 'super-expressors' (about 1 in 300-10,000 cells) that possess high viral transcriptional activity, among research-grade allogeneic chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cells. By analysing single-cell sequencing data from patients receiving cell therapy products that are approved by the US Food and Drug Administration2 or are in clinical studies3-5, we identify the presence of HHV-6-super-expressor CAR T cells in patients in vivo. Together, the findings of our study demonstrate the utility of comprehensive genomics analyses in implicating cell therapy products as a potential source contributing to the lytic HHV-6 infection that has been reported in clinical trials1,6-8 and may influence the design and production of autologous and allogeneic cell therapies.


Assuntos
Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos , Herpesvirus Humano 6 , Imunoterapia Adotiva , Receptores de Antígenos Quiméricos , Ativação Viral , Latência Viral , Humanos , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/imunologia , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/virologia , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto , Regulação Viral da Expressão Gênica , Genômica , Herpesvirus Humano 6/genética , Herpesvirus Humano 6/isolamento & purificação , Herpesvirus Humano 6/fisiologia , Imunoterapia Adotiva/efeitos adversos , Imunoterapia Adotiva/métodos , Encefalite Infecciosa/complicações , Encefalite Infecciosa/virologia , Receptores de Antígenos Quiméricos/imunologia , Infecções por Roseolovirus/complicações , Infecções por Roseolovirus/virologia , Análise da Expressão Gênica de Célula Única , Carga Viral
13.
Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz ; 118: e230044, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37820117

RESUMO

Lipid droplets (LD) are evolutionarily conserved lipid-enriched organelles with a diverse array of cell- and stimulus-regulated proteins. Accumulating evidence demonstrates that intracellular pathogens exploit LD as energy sources, replication sites, and part of the mechanisms of immune evasion. Nevertheless, LD can also favor the host as part of the immune and inflammatory response to pathogens. The functions of LD in the central nervous system have gained great interest due to their presence in various cell types in the brain and for their suggested involvement in neurodevelopment and neurodegenerative diseases. Only recently have the roles of LD in neuroinfections begun to be explored. Recent findings reveal that lipid remodelling and increased LD biogenesis play important roles for Zika virus (ZIKV) replication and pathogenesis in neural cells. Moreover, blocking LD formation by targeting DGAT-1 in vivo inhibited virus replication and inflammation in the brain. Therefore, targeting lipid metabolism and LD biogenesis may represent potential strategies for anti-ZIKV treatment development. Here, we review the progress in understanding LD functions in the central nervous system in the context of the host response to Zika infection.


Assuntos
Infecções do Sistema Nervoso Central , Gotículas Lipídicas , Infecção por Zika virus , Zika virus , Humanos , Gotículas Lipídicas/metabolismo , Gotículas Lipídicas/fisiologia , Gotículas Lipídicas/virologia , Lipídeos/fisiologia , Replicação Viral/fisiologia , Zika virus/fisiologia , Infecção por Zika virus/fisiopatologia , Infecção por Zika virus/virologia , Infecções do Sistema Nervoso Central/fisiopatologia , Infecções do Sistema Nervoso Central/virologia
15.
Viruses ; 15(10)2023 10 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37896875

RESUMO

The Special Issue "Emerging Viruses: Surveillance, Prevention, Evolution and Control" has been published annually by Viruses, since 2019, highlighting the increasing effort of the scientific community for the surveillance and further research of new emerging or re-emerging viruses [...].


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes , Vírus , Vírus/genética , Doenças Transmissíveis Emergentes/virologia
16.
Nucleic Acids Res ; 51(20): 11332-11344, 2023 11 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37819014

RESUMO

SARS-CoV-2 depends on -1 programmed ribosomal frameshifting (-1 PRF) to express proteins essential for its replication. The RNA pseudoknot stimulating -1 PRF is thus an attractive drug target. However, the structural models of this pseudoknot obtained from cryo-EM and crystallography differ in some important features, leaving the pseudoknot structure unclear. We measured the solution structure of the pseudoknot using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The measured profile did not agree with profiles computed from the previously solved structures. Beginning with each of these solved structures, we used the SAXS data to direct all atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to improve the agreement in profiles. In all cases, this refinement resulted in a bent conformation that more closely resembled the cryo-EM structures than the crystal structure. Applying the same approach to a point mutant abolishing -1 PRF revealed a notably more bent structure with reoriented helices. This work clarifies the dynamic structures of the SARS-CoV-2 pseudoknot in solution.


Assuntos
Simulação de Dinâmica Molecular , RNA Viral , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/virologia , Mudança da Fase de Leitura do Gene Ribossômico , Conformação de Ácido Nucleico , RNA Viral/química , SARS-CoV-2/química , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Espalhamento a Baixo Ângulo , Difração de Raios X
17.
Science ; 382(6667): 140-141, 2023 10 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37824660
19.
Int J Mol Sci ; 24(19)2023 Sep 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37834078

RESUMO

This review investigates the intricate role of human endogenous retroviruses (HERVs) in cancer development and progression, explicitly focusing on HERV-K (HML-2). This paper sheds light on the latest research advancements and potential treatment strategies by examining the historical context of HERVs and their involvement in critical biological processes such as embryonic development, immune response, and disease progression. This review covers computational modeling for drug-target binding assessment, systems biology modeling for simulating HERV-K viral cargo dynamics, and using antiviral drugs to combat HERV-induced diseases. The findings presented in this review contribute to our understanding of HERV-mediated disease mechanisms and provide insights into future therapeutic approaches. They emphasize why HERV-K holds significant promise as a biomarker and a target.


Assuntos
Retrovirus Endógenos , Neoplasias , Infecções Tumorais por Vírus , Humanos , Neoplasias/virologia , Infecções Tumorais por Vírus/virologia
20.
Cell ; 186(23): 5151-5164.e13, 2023 11 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37875109

RESUMO

The large-scale evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been marked by rapid turnover of genetic clades. New variants show intrinsic changes, notably increased transmissibility, and antigenic changes that reduce cross-immunity induced by previous infections or vaccinations. How this functional variation shapes global evolution has remained unclear. Here, we establish a predictive fitness model for SARS-CoV-2 that integrates antigenic and intrinsic selection. The model is informed by tracking of time-resolved sequence data, epidemiological records, and cross-neutralization data of viral variants. Our inference shows that immune pressure, including contributions of vaccinations and previous infections, has become the dominant force driving the recent evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The fitness model can serve continued surveillance in two ways. First, it successfully predicts the short-term evolution of circulating strains and flags emerging variants likely to displace the previously predominant variant. Second, it predicts likely antigenic profiles of successful escape variants prior to their emergence.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/virologia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , SARS-CoV-2/fisiologia , Vacinação , Modelos Genéticos , Monitoramento Epidemiológico
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