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1.
Rev Lat Am Enfermagem ; 28: e3346, 2020.
Artigo em Inglês, Português, Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32609283

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: to explore the best type of curve or trend model that could explain the epidemiological behavior of the infection by COVID-19 and derive the possible causes that contribute to explain the corresponding model and the health implications that can be inferred. METHOD: data were collected from the COVID-19 reports of the Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Chile. Curve adjustment studies were developed with the data in four different models: quadratic, exponential, simple exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing. The significance level used was α≤0.05. RESULTS: the curve that best fits the evolution of the accumulated confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Chile is the doubly-smoothed exponential curve. CONCLUSION: the number of infected patients will continue to increase. Chile needs to remain vigilant and adjust the strategies around the prevention and control measures. The behavior of the population plays a fundamental role. We suggest not relaxing restrictions and further improving epidemiological surveillance. Emergency preparations are needed and more resource elements need to be added to the current health support. This prediction is provisional and depends on keeping all intervening variables constant. Any alteration will modify the prediction.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Chile/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Pandemias/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Tempo
2.
Medwave ; 20(5): e7935, 2020 Jun 16.
Artigo em Espanhol, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32544150

RESUMO

The current COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to overwhelm the capacity of hospitals and Intensive Care Units in Chile and Latin America. Thus local authorities have an ethical obligation to be prepared by implementing pertinent measures to prevent a situation of rationing of scarce healthcare resources, and by defining ethically acceptable and socially legitimate criteria for the allocation of these resources. This paper responds to recent ethical guidelines issued by a Chilean academic institution and discusses the main moral principles for the ethical foundations of criteria for rationing during the present crisis. It argues that under exceptional circumstances such as the current pandemic, the traditional patient-centered morality of medicine needs to be balanced with ethical principles formulated from a public health perspective, including the principles of social utility, social justice and equity, among others. The paper concludes with some recommendations regarding how to reach an agreement about rationing criteria and about their implementation in clinical practice.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Alocação de Recursos para a Atenção à Saúde/ética , Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Saúde Pública/ética , Capacidade de Resposta ante Emergências/estatística & dados numéricos , Chile , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Guias como Assunto , Hospitais/ética , Hospitais/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/ética , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva/estatística & dados numéricos , América Latina , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Justiça Social
3.
Psychol Trauma ; 2020 Jun 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32551750

RESUMO

With one of the highest testing rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, Chile continues to record low mortality rates from the disease. Several measures such as curfews, cancellation of large gatherings, and closure of schools and businesses have been implemented. Against the backdrop of high levels of alcohol/substance abuse, mental health disorders, and inequalities across Chile, it is likely that levels of stress and anxiety will peak during the COVID-19 pandemic. As key public health responses such as testing, contact tracing, isolation and management of confirmed cases of COVID-19 are being ramped up, it is expedient to prioritize measures to safeguard the mental health of Chileans. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

4.
Nutrients ; 12(6)2020 Jun 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32560550

RESUMO

Confinement due to the COVID-19 pandemic can influence dietary profiles, especially those of adolescents, who are highly susceptible to acquiring bad eating habits. Adolescents' poor dietary habits increase their subsequent risk of degenerative diseases such as obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular pathologies, etc. Our aim was to study nutritional modifications during COVID-19 confinement in adolescents aged 10 to 19 years, compare them with their usual diet and dietary guidelines, and identify variables that may have influenced changes. Data were collected by an anonymous online questionnaire on food intake among 820 adolescents from Spain, Italy, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile. The results show that COVID-19 confinement did influence their dietary habits. In particular, we recorded modified consumption of fried food, sweet food, legumes, vegetables, and fruits. Moreover, gender, family members at home, watching TV during mealtime, country of residence, and maternal education were diversely correlated with adequate nutrition during COVID-19 confinement. Understanding the adolescents' nutrition behavior during COVID-19 lockdown will help public health authorities reshape future policies on their nutritional recommendations, in preparation for future pandemics.


Assuntos
Comportamento do Adolescente/psicologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/psicologia , Dieta/estatística & dados numéricos , Comportamento Alimentar/psicologia , Pneumonia Viral/psicologia , Quarentena/psicologia , Adolescente , Betacoronavirus , Brasil/epidemiologia , Chile/epidemiologia , Colômbia/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Dieta/psicologia , Inquéritos sobre Dietas , Feminino , Comportamentos Relacionados com a Saúde , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Comportamento Sedentário , Espanha/epidemiologia , Inquéritos e Questionários
6.
Neumol. pediátr. (En línea) ; 15(2): 293-300, mayo 2020. ilus, tab
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS | ID: biblio-1099507

RESUMO

Since December 2019, the outbreak of a novel coronavirus SARS Cov-2 has been reported in Wuhan, China. Currently, the new coronavirus disease has been declared a worldwide pandemic. Compared to adults, reporting of cases in pediatric patients has been significant smaller. The objective of this article is to provide epidemiological information of COVID-19, especially pediatric. Most of the confirmed cases of children are declared to be a cluster disease. The clinic is oligosymptomatic, less severe and with concentrated risk in children under 1 year of age and with comorbidity. In Chile, pediatric patients represent about 6% of the total number of infected and overall lethality is significantly lower than adults. The main control measures to reduce effective reproduction are mass testing, social distancing and school closure, without dismissing individual responsibility. The adequate supply of personal protection elements is key to avoid nosocomial infection and the compromise of healthcare providers.


A partir de diciembre del 2019, se ha reportado el brote de una nueva infección por SARS Cov-2 en Wuhan, China. Actualmente, la enfermedad por el nuevo coronavirus 2019 ha alcanzado el estatus de pandemia. El reporte de casos en pacientes pediátricos ha sido escaso. El objetivo de este artículo es entregar información epidemiológica del COVID-19, especialmente pediátrica. Los niños han presentado enfermedad en clusters, secundaria a contacto con parientes enfermos. La clínica es oligosintomática, menos severa y mayor riesgo concentrado en menores de 1 año y con comorbilidad. En Chile, los pacientes pediátricos representan cerca del 6% del total y la letalidad global es notablemente más baja que en adultos. Las principales medidas de control para la reducción de la reproducción efectiva son el testeo masivo, distanciamiento social y cierre escolar, sin desestimar la responsabilidad individual. El adecuado abastecimiento de elementos de protección personal es clave para evitar la infección nosocomial y del personal de salud.


Assuntos
Humanos , Criança , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Chile/epidemiologia , Pandemias
9.
Medwave ; 20(4): e7898, 2020 May 15.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32469853

RESUMO

The COVID-19 pandemic declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has generated a wide-ranging debate regarding epidemiological forecasts and the global implications. With the data obtained from the Chilean Ministry of Health (MINSAL), a prospective study was carried out using the generalized SEIR model to estimate the course of COVID-19 in Chile. Three scenarios were estimated: Scenario 1 with official MINSAL data; scenario 2 with official MINSAL data and recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health; and scenario 3 with official MINSAL data, recovery criteria proposed by international organizations of health, and without considering deaths in the total recovered. There are considerable differences between scenario 1 compared to 2 and 3 in the number of deaths, active patients, and duration of the disease. Scenario 3, considered the most adverse, estimates a total of 11,000 infected people, 1,151 deaths, and that the peak of the disease will occur in the first days of May. We concluded that the concept of recovered may be decisive for the epidemiological forecasts of COVID-19 in Chile.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Chile/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/mortalidade , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Suscetibilidade a Doenças , Previsões , Saúde Global , Órgãos Governamentais , Guias como Assunto , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Pneumonia Viral/mortalidade , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Estudos Prospectivos , Recuperação de Função Fisiológica , Fatores de Tempo
10.
Medwave ; 20(3): e7871, 2020 Apr 08.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32469855

RESUMO

Using a mathematical model, we explore the problem of availability versus overdemand of critical hospital processes (e.g., critical beds) in the face of a steady epidemic expansion such as is occurring from the COVID-19 pandemic. In connection with the statistics of new cases per day, and the assumption of maximum quota, the dynamics associated with the variables number of hospitalized persons (critical occupants) and mortality in the system are explored. A parametric threshold condition is obtained, which involves a parameter associated with the minimum daily effort for not collapsing the system. To exemplify, we include some simulations for the case of Chile, based on a parameter of effort to be sustained with the purpose of lowering the daily infection rate.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/prevenção & controle , Necessidades e Demandas de Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Pneumonia Viral/prevenção & controle , Chile/epidemiologia , Infecções por Coronavirus/transmissão , Recursos em Saúde/provisão & distribução , Número de Leitos em Hospital/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Pneumonia Viral/transmissão , Valores de Referência , Capacidade de Resposta ante Emergências/estatística & dados numéricos
12.
Preprint em Espanhol | SciELO Preprints | ID: pps-368

RESUMO

The subjective well-being of a sample of 175 adults from Santiago de Chile, who have been between 1 and 3 weeks in social isolation and/or quarantine, was analyzed through the Positive and Negative Affect Scale adapted by Arancibia. To that end, the averages of both scales were compared with the correlative critical values from the same instrument validation study. The main results showed that the group under social isolation had a lower average raw score in the expression of positive affect and higher in negative affect, with both being significant. In addition, disparate results were obtained for the scales when calculating the magnitude of the effect (Cohen's d)


Se analizó el bienestar subjetivo de una muestra de 175 adultos de Santiago de Chile, que han estado entre 1 y 3 semanas en aislamiento social y/o cuarentena, a través de la Escala de afecto positivo y negativo adaptada por Arancibia. Para ello, se hizo una comparación de medias en ambas escalas con los valores críticos correlativos extraídos del mismo estudio de validación del instrumento. Los principales resultados mostraron que el grupo sometido a aislamiento social presentó un menor promedio de puntación bruta en la expresión de afecto positivo y mayor en afecto negativo, siendo ambos significativos. Además, al calcular la magnitud del efecto (d de Cohen) se obtuvieron resultados dispares para las escalas.

13.
Curr Trop Med Rep ; : 1-4, 2020 Apr 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32313804

RESUMO

Purpose of Review: In this review, we discuss the current implications of the changing genomic epidemiology of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), etiological agent of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its potential relationship with the change of clinical manifestations in patients with confirmed infection. Recent Findings: Over the course of the current pandemic, the virus has been found more diverse in new countries. Simultaneously, also new clinical manifestations are observed, particularly more prominent gastrointestinal and neurological findings. Summary: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is changing not only its epidemiology, but also its genomic diversity and clinical manifestations, both aspects coupled, needs to be considered in the study of this ongoing pandemic.

14.
Medwave ; 20(2): e7861, 2020 03 27.
Artigo em Espanhol | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32225133

RESUMO

We present a straightforward projection with data up to 21/03/2020 of the evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases per day in Chile using data from the Ministry of Health. Assuming an arithmetical growth in the second variation of the data, we present a cubic adjustment model in which we estimate over 100 000 cases at 120 days consistent with the data recorded to date. Furthermore, we use an exponential total case model to represent (using a parameter) the daily effort to reduce a high initial daily growth rate. We simulate this model with different numerical scenarios of feasibility and desired future prevalence.


Assuntos
Betacoronavirus , Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Modelos Estatísticos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Chile/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pandemias , Prevalência
15.
Medwave ; 20(3): e7876, 2020 Apr 08.
Artigo em Espanhol, Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32343682

RESUMO

This short paper focuses on the role of mathematical models to analyze the impact of pandemics on health resources and the different trade-offs that may be included in them. There is a large body of literature suggesting that mathematical modeling may be helpful to estimate how much additional equipment and infrastructure are necessary to mitigate an increase in demand for health services during a large-scale outbreak of an infectious disease. I comment on the crucial role of these models with a special focus on their strengths and limitations.


Assuntos
Infecções por Coronavirus/epidemiologia , Recursos em Saúde , Modelos Teóricos , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Betacoronavirus , Chile , Humanos , Pandemias
16.
Medwave ; 20(2)31-03-2020.
Artigo em Espanhol, Inglês | LILACS-Express | ID: biblio-1096506

RESUMO

Realizamos una prospectiva básica, con datos al 21/03/2020 de la evolución del número de casos COVID-19 diarios en Chile con datos del Ministerio de Salud. Asumiendo un crecimiento aritmético en la segunda variación de los datos, se presenta un modelo de ajuste cúbico que estima en más de 100 mil casos a 120 días y que es consistente con los datos registrados a la fecha. Además, se interviene un modelo de casos totales exponencial, para representar en él (mediante un parámetro) el esfuerzo diario por rebajar una elevada primera tasa de crecimiento diario. Este modelo se simula con distinto escenarios numéricos de factibilidad y prevalencia futura deseada.


We present a straightforward projection with data up to 21/03/2020 of the evolution of the number of COVID-19 cases per day in Chile using data from the Ministry of Health. Assuming an arithmetical growth in the second variation of the data, we present a cubic adjustment model in which we estimate over 100 000 cases at 120 days consistent with the data recorded to date. Furthermore, we use an exponential total case model to represent (using a parameter) the daily effort to reduce a high initial daily growth rate. We simulate this model with different numerical scenarios of feasibility and desired future prevalence.

17.
J Med Virol ; 2020 Mar 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32222995

RESUMO

The current pandemic caused by the new coronavirus is a worldwide public health concern. To aboard this emergency, and like never before, scientific groups around the world have been working in a fast and coordinated way to get the maximum of information about this virus when it has been almost 3 months since the first cases were detected in Wuhan province in China. The complete genome sequences of around 450 isolates are available, and studies about similarities and differences among them and with the close related viruses that caused similar epidemics in this century. In this work, we studied the complete genome of the first four cases of the new coronavirus disease in Chile, from patients who traveled to Europe and Southeast Asia. Our findings reveal at least two different viral variants entries to Chilean territory, coming from Europe and Asia. We also sub-classified the isolates into variants according to punctual mutations in the genome. Our work contributes to global information about transmission dynamics and the importance to take control measures to stop the spread of the infection.

18.
Geneva; World Health Organization; 2020-03-04.
em Inglês | WHO IRIS | ID: who-331355
20.
Rev. chil. anest ; 49(2): [1-9], 2020.
Artigo em Espanhol | LILACS | ID: biblio-1087930

RESUMO

La pandemia de COVID-19 producida por SARS-CoV-2 actualmente en curso anticipa una gran demanda por ventiladores mecánicos (VM), ya que un porcentaje relevante de los contagiados cae rápidamente en insuficiencia respiratoria y requiere de cuidados intensivos. Anticipándose a ese exceso de demanda y considerando que es muy probable que el número actual de ventiladores mecánicos en las unidades de cuidados intensivos (UCI) sean insuficientes, se ha solicitado a la SACH un informe técnico en relación al uso de las máquinas de anestesia como VM.


Assuntos
Pneumonia Viral/terapia , Respiração Artificial/instrumentação , Ventiladores Mecânicos/provisão & distribução , Infecções por Coronavirus/terapia , Betacoronavirus , Pneumonia Viral/epidemiologia , Chile/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Anestesia/métodos
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