Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages.

BACKGROUND: Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). METHODS: Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. RESULTS: We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

Biochemically verified smoking cessation and vaping beliefs among vape store customers.

AIMS: To evaluate biochemically verified smoking status and electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use behaviors and beliefs among a sample of customers from vapor stores (stores specializing in ENDS). DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A cross-sectional survey of 215 adult vapor store customers at four retail locations in the Midwestern United States; a subset of participants (n = 181) also completed exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) testing to verify smoking status. MEASUREMENTS: Outcomes evaluated included ENDS preferences, harm beliefs, use behaviors, smoking history and current biochemically verified smoking status. FINDINGS: Most customers reported starting ENDS as a means of smoking cessation (86%), using newer-generation devices (89%), vaping non-tobacco/non-menthol flavors (72%) and using e-liquid with nicotine strengths of ≤20 mg/ml (72%). There was a high rate of switching (91.4%) to newer-generation ENDS among those who started with a first-generation product. Exhaled CO readings confirmed that 66% of the tested sample had quit smoking. Among those who continued to smoke, mean cigarettes per day decreased from 22.1 to 7.5 (P <0.001). People who reported vaping longer [odds ratio (OR) = 4.659, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.001-10.846], using newer-generation devices (OR = 2.950, 95% CI = 1.037-8.395) and using non-tobacco and non-menthol flavors (OR = 2.626, 95% CI = 1.133-6.085) were more likely to have quit smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Among vapor store customers in the United States who use electronic nicotine delivery devices to stop smoking, vaping longer, using newer-generation devices and using non-tobacco and non-menthol flavored e-liquid appear to be associated with higher rates of smoking cessation.

Carbon-dioxide emissions trading and hierarchical structure in worldwide finance and commodities markets.

In a highly interdependent economic world, the nature of relationships between financial entities is becoming an increasingly important area of study. Recently, many studies have shown the usefulness of minimal spanning trees (MST) in extracting interactions between financial entities. Here, we propose a modified MST network whose metric distance is defined in terms of cross-correlation coefficient absolute values, enabling the connections between anticorrelated entities to manifest properly. We investigate 69 daily time series, comprising three types of financial assets: 28 stock market indicators, 21 currency futures, and 20 commodity futures. We show that though the resulting MST network evolves over time, the financial assets of similar type tend to have connections which are stable over time. In addition, we find a characteristic time lag between the volatility time series of the stock market indicators and those of the EU CO(2) emission allowance (EUA) and crude oil futures (WTI). This time lag is given by the peak of the cross-correlation function of the volatility time series EUA (or WTI) with that of the stock market indicators, and is markedly different (>20 days) from 0, showing that the volatility of stock market indicators today can predict the volatility of EU emissions allowances and of crude oil in the near future.

Carbon footprint of nations: a global, trade-linked analysis.

Processes causing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefit humans by providing consumer goods and services. This benefit, and hence the responsibility for emissions, varies by purpose or consumption category and is unevenly distributed across and within countries. We quantify greenhouse gas emissions associated with the final consumption of goods and services for 73 nations and 14 aggregate world regions. We analyze the contribution of 8 categories: construction, shelter, food, clothing, mobility, manufactured products, services, and trade. National average per capita footprints vary from 1 tCO2e/y in African countries to approximately 30/y in Luxembourg and the United States. The expenditure elasticity is 0.57. The cross-national expenditure elasticity for just CO2, 0.81, corresponds remarkably well to the cross-sectional elasticities found within nations, suggesting a global relationship between expenditure and emissions that holds across several orders of magnitude difference. On the global level, 72% of greenhouse gas emissions are related to household consumption, 10% to government consumption, and 18% to investments. Food accounts for 20% of GHG emissions, operation and maintenance of residences is 19%, and mobility is 17%. Food and services are more important in developing countries, while mobility and manufactured goods rise fast with income and dominate in rich countries. The importance of public services and manufactured goods has not yet been sufficiently appreciated in policy. Policy priorities hence depend on development status and country-level characteristics.