[Impaired fasting glucose and risk of diabetes mellitus at 10 years. Cohort study]. / Glucemia basal alterada y riesgo de diabetes mellitus a los 10 años. Estudio de cohorte.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to define the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with impaired fasting glucose and its association with risk factors. PATIENTS AND METHOD: 115 patients aged > 18 years old, randomly selected in a Healthcare Center, diagnosed of impaired fasting glucose with 1997 American Diabetes Association criteria, followed 10 years. Predictive factors for developing diabetes mellitus were age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, family history of type 2 diabetes mellitus, antecedent of diabetes in pregnancy, and obesity. RESULTS: During the 10 years of follow-up, 33 patients developed type 2 diabetes mellitus (28.7%; 95% CI 20.4-37.0%), 57 patients progressed to normoglycaemia (49.6%; 95% CI 40.4-58.7%), and 25 patients remained with an impaired fasting glucose (21.7%; 95% CI 14.2-29.3%). Only obesity was associated with progression to type 2 diabetes mellitus (adjusted hazard ratio 2.01; 95% CI 1.00-4.03, p=0.050). CONCLUSIONS: Half of the patients with impaired fasting glucose normalized their glycaemia, and 28.7% developed diabetes mellitus, especially patients with obesity. These results suggest a different natural history to respect glucose intolerance.