Propagating clade and model uncertainty to confidence intervals of divergence times and branch lengths.
Mol Phylogenet Evol
; 167: 107357, 2022 02.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34785383
ABSTRACT
Confidence intervals of divergence times and branch lengths do not reflect uncertainty about their clades or about the prior distributions and other model assumptions on which they are based. Uncertainty about the clade may be propagated to a confidence interval by multiplying its confidence level by the bootstrap proportion of its clade or by another probability that the clade is correct. (If the confidence level is 95% and the bootstrap proportion is 90%, then the uncertainty-adjusted confidence level is (0.95)(0.90) = 86%.) Uncertainty about the model can be propagated to the confidence interval by reporting the union of the confidence intervals from all the plausible models. Unless there is no overlap between the confidence intervals, that results in an uncertainty-adjusted interval that has as its lower and upper limits the most extreme limits of the models. The proposed methods of uncertainty quantification may be used together.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Models, Statistical
Type of study:
Risk_factors_studies
Language:
En
Journal:
Mol Phylogenet Evol
Journal subject:
BIOLOGIA
/
BIOLOGIA MOLECULAR
Year:
2022
Document type:
Article