Development and validation of a novel radiomics nomogram for prediction of early recurrence in colorectal cancer.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early recurrence (ER) is a significant concern following curative resection of advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) and is linked to poor long-term survival. Reliable prediction of ER is challenging, necessitating the development of a novel radiomics-based nomogram for CRC patients. METHODS: We enrolled 405 patients, with 298 in the training set and 107 in the external test set. Radiomic features were extracted from preoperative venous-phase computed tomography (CT) images. A radiomics signature was created using univariate logistic regression analyses and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm. Clinical factors were integrated into the analyses to develop a comprehensive predictive tool in a multivariate logistic regression model, resulting in a radiomics nomogram. Subsequently, the calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness of the nomogram were evaluated. RESULTS: The radiomics signature, consisting of four selected CT features, was significantly associated with ER in both the training and test datasets (P < 0.05). Independent predictors of ER included TNM stage, carcinoembryonic antigen level and differentiation grade were identified. The radiomics nomogram, incorporating all these predictors, exhibited good predictive ability in both the training set with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82 (95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.90) and the test set with an AUC of 0.85 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.99), surpassing the performance of any single candidate factor alone. Furthermore, additional analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a radiomics-based nomogram that effectively predicts early recurrence in CRC patients, enhancing the potential for timely intervention and improved outcomes.