Development of a decision support tool to compare diagnostic strategies for establishing the herd status for infectious diseases: An example with Salmonella Dublin infection in dairies.

ABSTRACT

The diagnosis of infectious diseases at herd level can be challenging as different stakeholders can have conflicting priorities. The current study proposes a "proof of concept" of an approach that considers a reasonable number of criteria to rank plausible diagnostic strategies using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods. The example of Salmonella Dublin diagnostic in Québec dairy herds is presented according to two epidemiological contexts (i) in herds with no history of S. Dublin infection and absence of clinical signs, (ii) in herds with a previous history of infection, but absence of clinical signs at the moment of testing. Multiple multiparty exchanges were conducted to determine 1) stakeholders' groups; 2) the decision problem; 3) solutions to the problem (options) or diagnostic strategies to be ordered; 4) criteria and indicators; 5) criteria weights; 6) the construction of a performance matrix for each option; 7) the multi-criteria analyses using the visual preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations approach; 8) the sensitivity analyses, and 9) the final decision. A total of nine people from four Québec's organizations (the dairy producers provincial association along with the DHI company, the ministry of agriculture, the association of veterinary practitioners, and experts in epidemiology) composed the MCDA team. The decision problem was "What is the optimal diagnostic strategy for establishing the status of a dairy herd for S. Dublin infection when there are no clinical signs of infection?". Fourteen diagnostic strategies composed of the three following parameters were considered 1) biological samples (bulk tank milk or blood from 10 heifers aged over three months); 2) sampling frequencies (one to three samples collection visits); 3) case definitions to conclude to a positive status using imperfect milk- or blood-ELISA tests. The top-ranking diagnostic strategy was the same in the two contexts testing the bulk tank milk and the blood samples, all samples collected during one visit and the herd being assigned a S. Dublin positive status if one sample is ELISA-positive. The final decision favored the top-ranking option for both contexts. This MCDA approach and its application to S. Dublin infection in dairy herds allowed a consensual, rational, and transparent ranking of feasible diagnostic strategies while taking into account the diagnostic tests accuracy, socio-economic, logistic, and perception considerations of the key actors in the dairy industry. This promising tool can be applied to other infectious diseases that lack a well-established diagnostic procedure to define a herd status.