Deep learning guided prediction modeling of dengue virus evolving serotype.

ABSTRACT

Evolution remains an incessant process in viruses, allowing them to elude the host immune response and induce severe diseases, impacting the diagnostic and vaccine effectiveness. Emerging and re-emerging diseases are among the significant public health concerns globally. The revival of dengue is mainly due to the potential for naturally arising mutations to induce genotypic alterations in serotypes. These transformations could lead to future outbreaks, underscoring the significance of studying DENV evolution in endemic regions. Predicting the emerging Dengue Virus (DENV) genome is crucial as the virus disrupts host cells, leading to fatal outcomes. Deep learning has been applied to predict dengue fever cases; there has been relatively less emphasis on its significance in forecasting emerging DENV serotypes. While Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) were initially designed for modeling temporal sequences, our proposed DL-DVE generative and classification model, trained on complete genome data of DENV, transcends traditional approaches by learning semantic relationships between nucleotides in a continuous vector space instead of representing the contextual meaning of nucleotide characters. Leveraging 2000 publicly available DENV complete genome sequences, our Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based generative and Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) based classification DL-DVE model showcases proficiency in learning intricate patterns and generating sequences for emerging serotype of DENV. The generated sequences were analyzed along with available DENV serotype sequences to find conserved motifs in the genome through MEME Suite (version 5.5.5). The generative model showed an accuracy of 93 %, and the classification model provided insight into the specific serotype label, corroborated by BLAST search verification. Evaluation metrics such as ROC-AUC value 0.818, accuracy, precision, recall and F1 score, all to be around 99.00 %, demonstrating the classification model's reliability. Our model classified the generated sequences as DENV-4, exhibiting 65.99 % similarity to DENV-4 and around 63-65 % similarity with other serotypes, indicating notable distinction from other serotypes. Moreover, the intra-serotype divergence of sequences with a minimum of 90 % similarity underscored their uniqueness.