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Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.
Mathis, Sarabeth M; Webber, Alexander E; León, Tomás M; Murray, Erin L; Sun, Monica; White, Lauren A; Brooks, Logan C; Green, Alden; Hu, Addison J; Rosenfeld, Roni; Shemetov, Dmitry; Tibshirani, Ryan J; McDonald, Daniel J; Kandula, Sasikiran; Pei, Sen; Yaari, Rami; Yamana, Teresa K; Shaman, Jeffrey; Agarwal, Pulak; Balusu, Srikar; Gururajan, Gautham; Kamarthi, Harshavardhan; Prakash, B Aditya; Raman, Rishi; Zhao, Zhiyuan; Rodríguez, Alexander; Meiyappan, Akilan; Omar, Shalina; Baccam, Prasith; Gurung, Heidi L; Suchoski, Brad T; Stage, Steve A; Ajelli, Marco; Kummer, Allisandra G; Litvinova, Maria; Ventura, Paulo C; Wadsworth, Spencer; Niemi, Jarad; Carcelen, Erica; Hill, Alison L; Loo, Sara L; McKee, Clifton D; Sato, Koji; Smith, Claire; Truelove, Shaun; Jung, Sung-Mok; Lemaitre, Joseph C; Lessler, Justin; McAndrew, Thomas; Ye, Wenxuan.
Affiliation
  • Mathis SM; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. nqr2@cdc.gov.
  • Webber AE; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • León TM; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
  • Murray EL; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
  • Sun M; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
  • White LA; California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
  • Brooks LC; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Green A; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
  • Hu AJ; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Rosenfeld R; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Shemetov D; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Tibshirani RJ; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • McDonald DJ; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.
  • Kandula S; University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
  • Pei S; University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
  • Yaari R; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
  • Yamana TK; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Shaman J; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Agarwal P; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Balusu S; Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
  • Gururajan G; Columbia University School of Climate, New York, NY, USA.
  • Kamarthi H; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Prakash BA; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Raman R; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Zhao Z; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Rodríguez A; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Meiyappan A; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Omar S; Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA.
  • Baccam P; University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
  • Gurung HL; Guidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean, VA, USA.
  • Suchoski BT; Guidehouse Advisory and Consulting Services, McClean, VA, USA.
  • Stage SA; IEM, Bel Air, MD, USA.
  • Ajelli M; IEM, Bel Air, MD, USA.
  • Kummer AG; IEM, Bel Air, MD, USA.
  • Litvinova M; IEM, Baton Rouge, LA, USA.
  • Ventura PC; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Wadsworth S; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Niemi J; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Carcelen E; Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Hill AL; Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA.
  • Loo SL; Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA.
  • McKee CD; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Sato K; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Smith C; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Truelove S; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Jung SM; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Lemaitre JC; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • Lessler J; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
  • McAndrew T; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  • Ye W; University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 6289, 2024 Jul 26.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39060259
ABSTRACT
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Seasons / Influenza, Human / Forecasting / Hospitalization Limits: Humans Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2024 Document type: Article Affiliation country:
Fulltext
Add to My VHL
Print
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PubMed Links
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Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Seasons / Influenza, Human / Forecasting / Hospitalization Limits: Humans Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2024 Document type: Article Affiliation country: