Greenhouse gas mitigation potential via a large-scale compulsory circular waste management system.

ABSTRACT

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is a major anthropogenic contributor to climate change due to the substantial quantities of greenhouse gas (GHG) emitted by landfills and incineration. Circular waste management has shown promise in reducing GHG emissions; however, it is still in its early stages and requires further optimization. In this study, support vector machine models were developed to determine the compositional dynamics of MSW, which were then integrated to examine the interactions among composition, disposal routes, and GHG emissions. The results from analyzing large-scale transitions from traditional to circular waste management practices showed that GHG mitigation potential will be significantly enhanced as the coverage of circular waste management increases from 35% in 2025 to 100% in 2035 in China. However, these reductions will eventually decrease as waste quantities decline in response to population shrinkage. The results reveal both the GHG mitigation potential and limitations of the circular waste management mode, assisting policymakers and researchers in maximizing its mitigation potential.