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Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England
Daniel J Grint; Kevin Wing; Elizabeth Williamson; Helen I McDonald; Krishnan Bhaskaran; David Evans; Stephen JW Evans; Alex J Walker; George Hickman; Emily Nightingale; Anna Schultze; Christopher T Rentsch; Chris Bates; Jonathan Cockburn; Helen J Curtis; Caroline E Morton; Sebastian Bacon; Simon Davy; Angel YS Wong; Amir Mehrkar; Laurie Tomlinson; Ian J Douglas; Rohini Mathur; Paula Blomquist; Brian MacKenna; Peter Ingelsby; Richard Croker; John Parry; Frank Hester; Sam Harper; Nicolas J DeVito; Will Hulme; John Tazare; Ben Goldacre; Liam Smeeth; Rosalind M Eggo.
Affiliation
  • Daniel J Grint; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Kevin Wing; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Elizabeth Williamson; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Helen I McDonald; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Krishnan Bhaskaran; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • David Evans; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Stephen JW Evans; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Alex J Walker; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • George Hickman; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Emily Nightingale; Faculty of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Anna Schultze; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Christopher T Rentsch; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Chris Bates; TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, UK
  • Jonathan Cockburn; TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, UK
  • Helen J Curtis; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Caroline E Morton; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Sebastian Bacon; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Simon Davy; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Angel YS Wong; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Amir Mehrkar; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Laurie Tomlinson; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Ian J Douglas; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Rohini Mathur; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Paula Blomquist; COVID-19 Outbreak Surveillance Team, Public Health England, London, UK
  • Brian MacKenna; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Peter Ingelsby; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Richard Croker; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • John Parry; TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, UK
  • Frank Hester; TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, UK
  • Sam Harper; TPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, UK
  • Nicolas J DeVito; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Will Hulme; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • John Tazare; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Ben Goldacre; The DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, UK
  • Liam Smeeth; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
  • Rosalind M Eggo; Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK
Preprint in En | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV | ID: ppmedrxiv-21252528
ABSTRACT
The B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (HR 1.67 (95% CI 1.34 - 2.09; P<.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28-days increased with age and comorbidities. VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.
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Full text: 1 Collection: 09-preprints Database: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Type of study: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Language: En Year: 2021 Document type: Preprint
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Add to My VHL
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Full text: 1 Collection: 09-preprints Database: PREPRINT-MEDRXIV Type of study: Observational_studies / Prognostic_studies Language: En Year: 2021 Document type: Preprint