The emergence, spread and vanishing of a French SARS-CoV-2 variant exemplifies the fate of RNA virus epidemics and obeys the Black Queen rule

ABSTRACT

The nature and dynamics of mutations associated with the emergence, spread and vanishing of SARS-CoV-2 variants causing successive waves are complex1-5. We determined the kinetics of the most common French variant ("Marseille-4") for 10 months since its onset in July 20205. Here, we analysed and classified into subvariants and lineages 7,453 genomes obtained by next-generation sequencing. We identified two subvariants, Marseille-4A, which contains 22 different lineages of at least 50 genomes, and Marseille-4B. Their average lifetime was 4.1{+/-}1.4 months, during which 4.1{+/-}2.6 mutations accumulated. Growth rate was 0.079{+/-}0.045, varying from 0.010 to 0.173. All the lineages exhibited a "gamma" distribution. Several beneficial mutations at unpredicted sites initiated a new outbreak, while the accumulation of other mutations resulted in more viral heterogenicity, increased diversity and vanishing of the lineages. Marseille-4B emerged when the other Marseille-4 lineages vanished. Its ORF8 gene was knocked out by a stop codon, as reported in several mink lineages and in the alpha variant. This subvariant was associated with increased hospitalization and death rates, suggesting that ORF8 is a nonvirulence gene. We speculate that the observed heterogenicity of a lineage may predict the end of the outbreak.