[Classification and evaluation of oncologic prognosis and risk factors]. / Einordnung und Wichtung von onkologischen Prognose- und Risikofaktoren.

The decision findings for a risk-dependent therapeutic strategy in oncology needs an individual prognostic estimation of the risk of recurrence. That target event permits the simultaneous classification of the case in an determined therapeutic modality. In according to Bayes' formula it is possible to estimate the risk of recurrence using one or several factors. It requires beforehand the research of every factor for his influence on the target variable by calculation of sensitivity and specificity in a reclassification matrix of an independent test group. Several factors increase the expense of procedures in such a manner that it is only possible to realize the calculations by a discriminance analysis or a multiple correlation analysis using a comfortable computer program. However this procedure is required because the oncologic prognosis models always represent multivariate nonlinear connections.