Cost-effectiveness of five different anti-tumour necrosis factor tapering strategies in rheumatoid arthritis: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate the cost-effectiveness of five different tumour necrosis factor inhibitor tapering strategies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and stable low disease activity, using a modelling design.Method: Using Markov models based on data from the DRESS and STRASS randomized controlled trials, and the Nijmegen RA cohort, five tapering strategies for etanercept and adalimumab were tested against continuation 1, four-step tapering (DRESS strategy); 2, five-step tapering; 3, tapering without withdrawal; 4, use of a stricter flare criterion; and 5, use of a theoretical predictor for successful tapering. We also examined how well a biomarker should be able to predict in order for strategy 5 to become cost-effective compared to the other strategies.Results: All examined tapering strategies were cost saving (range EUR 5128 to 7873) but yielded more short-lived flares compared to continuation. The change in utilities compared to continuation was minimal and not clinically relevant (range -0.005 to 0.007 quality-adjusted life-years). Strategy 1 was cost-effective compared to all other strategies [highest incremental net monetary benefit (iNMB)]. However, there was a large overlap in credible intervals, especially between strategies 1 and 2. Scenario analyses showed that 50% reduction of drug prices would result in the highest iNMB for strategy 2. A biomarker only becomes cost-effective when it is inexpensive and has a sensitivity and specificity of at least 84%.Conclusion: Because our study showed a comparable iNMB for tapering in four or five steps (including discontinuation), we recommend a choice between these strategies, based on shared decision making.