The prognostic significance of the risk scores at upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal system (GIS) bleeding is one of the most common causes of mortality and morbidity. The predictive values of pre-endoscopic Rockall score (PERS), full Rockall score (FRS), Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), pre-endoscopic Baylor score (PEBS), and full Baylor score (FBS) to predict bleeding at follow-up, endoscopic therapy, blood transfusion requirement, and death are investigated in our study. METHODS: This study was retrospectively conducted in patients admitted to emergency department with upper GIS bleeding. Demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients were recorded. The relationships of the aforementioned scores with in-hospital termination, bleeding at follow-up, endoscopic therapy, blood transfusion requirement, and death were explored. RESULTS: The study included a total of 420 subjects, of which 269 (64%) were men. All scoring systems were able to predict transfusion need and GBS was superior to other scores (P < 0.0001). In terms of endoscopic treatment, it was determined that only PERS, FRS, and FBS were statistically significant in predicting ability and PERS >3, FRS >5 and FBS >10 patients needed endoscopic treatment. All scoring systems were able to predict rebleeding. In comparison of two groups for rebleeding, it was found that PEBS was better able to predict bleeding during follow-up than both FRS and FBS, and PERS was better able to predict bleeding during follow-up than both FRS and FBS. All scoring systems were able to predict mortality. FRS and PERS scores had a greater discriminatory power for predicting death than the rest of the scores (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: All scoring systems were effective for predicting need for blood transfusion, rebleeding, and death. GBS had more predictive power for transfusion need, PERS and PEBS for rebleeding, and FRS for mortality. PERS, FRS, and FBS were found to be effective in predicting endoscopic treatment.