[Epidemic dynamic model based evaluation of effectiveness of prevention and control strategies for COVID-19 in Ningbo].
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
; 41(10): 1606-1610, 2020 Oct 10.
Article
in Zh
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33297616
ABSTRACT
Objective:
To evaluate effectiveness of prevention and control strategies for COVID-19 in Ningbo by using an epidemic dynamic model.Methods:
The incidence data and epidemic information of COVID-19 reported in Ningbo as of 9 March, 2020 were collected, and based on the implementation of prevention and control strategies, we developed a SEIR epidemic dynamics model. The basic and real-time reproduction numbers were calculated to evaluate effectiveness of prevention and control.Results:
A total of 157 cases of COVID-19 were confirmed, without death, in Ningbo. The proportion of severe cases was 12.1%. The mean incubation period was estimated to be (5.7±2.9) days. The mean interval from illness onset to diagnosis was (5.4±3.7) days. The mean duration from diagnosis to hospital discharge was (16.6±6.5) days. A total of 105 339 contacts had been under medical observation. The infection rates in contacts with home quarantine and centralized quarantine were 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. In the confirmed cases, those who had been under medical observation before diagnoses accounted for 63.1%. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 4.8. With the strengthening of prevention and control measures, real-time reproduction number showed a gradual downward trend, dropping to below 1.0 on 4 February, and then continued to drop to 0.2 in mid-February.Conclusion:
The effectiveness of the prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in Ningbo can be evaluated by using epidemic dynamic model to provide scientific evidence for the development of the prevention and control strategies.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
Zh
Journal:
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi
Year:
2020
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
China