School closures reduced social mixing of children during COVID-19 with implications for transmission risk and school reopening policies.
J R Soc Interface
; 18(177): 20200970, 2021 04.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33849340
ABSTRACT
School closures may reduce the size of social networks among children, potentially limiting infectious disease transmission. To estimate the impact of K-12 closures and reopening policies on children's social interactions and COVID-19 incidence in California's Bay Area, we collected data on children's social contacts and assessed implications for transmission using an individual-based model. Elementary and Hispanic children had more contacts during closures than high school and non-Hispanic children, respectively. We estimated that spring 2020 closures of elementary schools averted 2167 cases in the Bay Area (95% CI -985, 5572), fewer than middle (5884; 95% CI 1478, 11.550), high school (8650; 95% CI 3054, 15 940) and workplace (15 813; 95% CI 9963, 22 617) closures. Under assumptions of moderate community transmission, we estimated that reopening for a four-month semester without any precautions will increase symptomatic illness among high school teachers (an additional 40.7% expected to experience symptomatic infection, 95% CI 1.9, 61.1), middle school teachers (37.2%, 95% CI 4.6, 58.1) and elementary school teachers (4.1%, 95% CI -1.7, 12.0). However, we found that reopening policies for elementary schools that combine universal masking with classroom cohorts could result in few within-school transmissions, while high schools may require masking plus a staggered hybrid schedule. Stronger community interventions (e.g. remote work, social distancing) decreased the risk of within-school transmission across all measures studied, with the influence of community transmission minimized as the effectiveness of the within-school measures increased.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limits:
Child
/
Humans
Language:
En
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2021
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Estados Unidos