Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.
Sci Transl Med
; 13(602)2021 07 14.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34158411
ABSTRACT
We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rt eff) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI) 15,900 to 38,400]. The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95% CrI 0.85 to 1.21%) to 0.79% (95% CrI 0.63 to 0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95% CrI 14.7 to 35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95% CrI 5.9 to 10.3%). On 2 December 2020, England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95% CrI 5.4 to 10.2%) and 22.3% (95% CrI 19.4 to 25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow nonpharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Epidemics
/
COVID-19
Limits:
Aged
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
En
Journal:
Sci Transl Med
Journal subject:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Year:
2021
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Reino Unido