Development of a suspicion index for secondary schizophrenia using the Delphi method.

ABSTRACT

AIM: The aim of this study was to develop a suspicion index that aids diagnosis of secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorders in regular clinical practice. METHOD: We used the Delphi method to rate and refine questionnaire items in consecutive rounds. Differences in mean expert responses for schizophrenia spectrum disorders and secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorders populations allowed to define low/middle/high predictive items, which received different weights. Algorithm performance was tested in 198 disease profiles by means of sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: Twelve experts completed the Delphi process, and consensus was reached in 19/24 (79.2%) items for schizophrenia spectrum disorders and 17/24 (70.8%) for secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorders. We assigned rounded values to each item category according to their predictive potential. A differential distribution of scores was observed between schizophrenia spectrum disorders and secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorders when applying the suspicion index for validation to 198 disease profiles. Sensitivity and specificity analyses allowed to set a >8/10/16 risk prediction score as a threshold to consider medium/high/very high suspicion of secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorders. CONCLUSION: Our final outcome was the Secondary Schizophrenia Suspicion Index, the first paper-based and reliable algorithm to discriminate secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorders from schizophrenia spectrum disorders with the potential to help improve the detection of secondary schizophrenia spectrum disorder cases in clinical practice.