Nomogram to predict survival of patients with advanced and metastatic pancreatic Cancer.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Nomograms are rarely employed to estimate the survival of patients with advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer (PC). Herein, we developed a comprehensive approach to using a nomogram to predict survival probability in patients with advanced and metastatic PC. METHODS: A total of 323 patients with advanced and metastatic PC were identified from the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital. A baseline nomogram was constructed using baseline variables of 323 patients. Additionally, 233 patients, whose tumors showed initial responses to first-line chemotherapy, were enrolled in the chemotherapy response-based model. 128 patients and 108 patients with advanced and metastatic PC from January 2019 to April 2021 were selected for external validating baseline model and chemotherapy response-based model. The 1-year and 2-year survival probability was evaluated using multivariate COX regression models. The discrimination and calibration capacity of the nomograms were assessed using C-statistic and calibration plots. The predictive accuracy and net benefit of the nomograms were evaluated using ROC curve and DCA, respectively. RESULTS: In the baseline model, six variables (gender, KPS, baseline TB, baseline N, baseline WBC and baseline CA19-9) were used in the final model. In the chemotherapy response-based model, nine variables (KPS, gender, ascites, baseline N, baseline CA 19-9, baseline CEA, change in CA 19-9 level at week, change in CEA level at week and initial response to chemotherapy) were included in the final model. The C-statistics of the baseline nomogram and the chemotherapy response-based nomogram were 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.71) and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69-0.77), respectively. CONCLUSION: These nomograms were constructed to predict the survival probability of patients of advanced and metastatic PC. The baseline model and chemotherapy response-based model performed well in survival prediction.