Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and superspreading in Salt Lake County, Utah, March-May 2020.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Understanding the drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission can inform the development of interventions. We evaluated transmission identified by contact tracing investigations between March-May 2020 in Salt Lake County, Utah, to quantify the impact of this intervention and identify risk factors for transmission. METHODS: RT-PCR positive and untested symptomatic contacts were classified as confirmed and probable secondary case-patients, respectively. We compared the number of case-patients and close contacts generated by different groups, and used logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with transmission. RESULTS: Data were collected on 184 index case-patients and up to six generations of contacts. Of 1,499 close contacts, 374 (25%) were classified as secondary case-patients. Decreased transmission odds were observed for contacts aged <18 years (OR = 0.55 [95% CI 0.38-0.79]), versus 18-44 years, and for workplace (OR = 0.36 [95% CI 0.23-0.55]) and social (OR = 0.44 [95% CI 0.28-0.66]) contacts, versus household contacts. Higher transmission odds were observed for case-patient's spouses than other household contacts (OR = 2.25 [95% CI 1.52-3.35]). Compared to index case-patients identified in the community, secondary case-patients identified through contract-tracing generated significantly fewer close contacts and secondary case-patients of their own. Transmission was heterogeneous, with 41% of index case-patients generating 81% of directly-linked secondary case-patients. CONCLUSIONS: Given sufficient resources and complementary public health measures, contact tracing can contain known chains of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Transmission is associated with age and exposure setting, and can be highly variable, with a few infections generating a disproportionately high share of onward transmission.