Evaluating emission reduction potential at the "30-60 Dual Carbon targets" over China from a view of wind power under climate change.

ABSTRACT

Large-scale wind energy development is one of the main paths to achieving China's carbon peak and neutrality goals. How will the wind power and corresponding carbon abatement potential (CAP) in China change when China reaches the timing of its reduction carbon targets? This issue has not been well addressed. In this paper, a weighted multi-model ensemble with 14 global climate models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is used to evaluate the spatio-temporal characteristics of wind speed over China during the baseline period (2004-2014). Then, we further analyze the changes in wind power and corresponding CAP due to the climate change over China in the two-level years (2030 and 2060) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show that the wind capacity factor over China will have a trend of decreasing in most regions of China and increasing in the southeast in 2060. Overall, climate change will have a slight impact on the CAP of wind power in 2030, with an increase in some southern provinces. However, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in most regions of China in 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, especially in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Liaoning, by more than 5 %. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the CAP will decrease significantly in the southwest and northwest regions, such as Sichuan and Qinghai, by 9.86 % and 8.19 % respectively. Central and South provinces such as Hunan and Hubei will increase by about 5 %. In terms of seasonal changes, the CAP of wind power will decrease significantly in summer under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (about -5.24 %) and SSP5-8.5 scenario (about -6.50 %).These findings can help policymakers make decisions as they establish plans for wind power expansion while taking the effects of climate change into account as they work toward China's carbon neutrality goal.