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Projecting the future incidence and burden of dengue in Southeast Asia.
Colón-González, Felipe J; Gibb, Rory; Khan, Kamran; Watts, Alexander; Lowe, Rachel; Brady, Oliver J.
Affiliation
  • Colón-González FJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Gibb R; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Khan K; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Watts A; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Lowe R; Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, NW1 2BE, UK. Felipe.Colon@lshtm.ac.uk.
  • Brady OJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 5439, 2023 09 06.
Article in En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37673859
The recent global expansion of dengue has been facilitated by changes in urbanisation, mobility, and climate. In this work, we project future changes in dengue incidence and case burden to 2099 under the latest climate change scenarios. We fit a statistical model to province-level monthly dengue case counts from eight countries across Southeast Asia, one of the worst affected regions. We project that dengue incidence will peak this century before declining to lower levels with large variations between and within countries. Our findings reveal that northern Thailand and Cambodia will show the biggest decreases and equatorial areas will show the biggest increases. The impact of climate change will be counterbalanced by income growth, with population growth having the biggest influence on increasing burden. These findings can be used for formulating mitigation and adaptation interventions to reduce the immediate growing impact of dengue virus in the region.
Subject(s)

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Dengue / Acclimatization Type of study: Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2023 Document type: Article Country of publication: Reino Unido

Full text: 1 Collection: 01-internacional Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Dengue / Acclimatization Type of study: Incidence_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: En Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: BIOLOGIA / CIENCIA Year: 2023 Document type: Article Country of publication: Reino Unido