Climate warming shifts riverine macroinvertebrate communities to be more sensitive to chemical pollutants.

ABSTRACT

Freshwaters are highly threatened ecosystems that are vulnerable to chemical pollution and climate change. Freshwater taxa vary in their sensitivity to chemicals and changes in species composition can potentially affect the sensitivity of assemblages to chemical exposure. Here we explore the potential consequences of future climate change on the composition and sensitivity of freshwater macroinvertebrate assemblages to chemical stressors using the UK as a case study. Macroinvertebrate assemblages under end of century (2080-2100) and baseline (1980-2000) climate conditions were predicted for 608 UK sites for four climate scenarios corresponding to mean temperature changes of 1.28 to 3.78°C. Freshwater macroinvertebrate toxicity data were collated for 19 chemicals and the hierarchical species sensitivity distribution model was used to predict the sensitivity of untested taxa using relatedness within a Bayesian approach. All four future climate scenarios shifted assemblage compositions, increasing the prevalence of Mollusca, Crustacea and Oligochaeta species, and the insect taxa of Odonata, Chironomidae, and Baetidae species. Contrastingly, decreases were projected for Plecoptera, Ephemeroptera (except for Baetidae) and Coleoptera species. Shifts in taxonomic composition were associated with changes in the percentage of species at risk from chemical exposure. For the 3.78°C climate scenario, 76% of all assemblages became more sensitive to chemicals and for 18 of the 19 chemicals, the percentage of species at risk increased. Climate warming-induced increases in sensitivity were greatest for assemblages exposed to metals and were dependent on baseline assemblage composition, which varied spatially. Climate warming is predicted to result in changes in the use, environmental exposure and toxicity of chemicals. Here we show that, even in the absence of these climate-chemical interactions, shifts in species composition due to climate warming will increase chemical risk and that the impact of chemical pollution on freshwater macroinvertebrate biodiversity may double or quadruple by the end of the 21st century.