Prognostic implications of heart failure stages among Chinese community populations: insight from a nationwide population-based study.

ABSTRACT

Background: In light of high burden of heart failure (HF) in China, studies of prognostic implication of HF stages are important. We aimed to evaluate the relationship between HF stages and mortality risk in Chinese community populations. Methods: Nationwide representative populations aged ≥35 years (n = 23,284, mean age 56.9 years, women 53.2%) were enrolled from 2012 to 2016. According to the international HF guidelines, participants were divided into stage A, B and C, and those who did not qualify these stages were categorized as apparently-healthy group. Association between HF stages and all-cause, cardiovascular [CV] and non-CV death was evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional regression analysis. Findings: During a median follow-up of 4.7 years (109,902.8 person-years), 1314 deaths occurred. Age-adjusted incidence rate of all-cause death was 5.3 in apparently-healthy, 7.8 in stage A, 8.6 in stage B and 24.6 in stage C groups per 1000 person-years. In reference to apparently-healthy group, adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause death was 1.90 (95% CI 1.47-2.45), 2.43 (95% CI 1.89-3.13) and 6.40 (95% CI 4.56-8.99) for stage A, B and C. Advancing HF stages were associated with increasing risks for all-cause, CV and non-CV death (P-trend <0.05). For all-cause death, population attributable fraction due to stage A, B and C were 21.2%, 33.4% and 4.9%, accounting for 1,933,385, 3,045,993 and 446,867 deaths in China in 2018. Interpretation: Advancing HF stages were associated with increasing risk mortality. Development and implementation of early screening and targeted interventions are urgently needed to reduce HF burdens in China. Funding: This work was supported by the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (grant 2017-I2M-1-004), the Projects in the Chinese National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (No. 2011BAI11B01), and the Project Entrusted by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (NHC2020-609).