STOPPING NUCLEOS(T)IDE ANALOGUES IN CHRONIC HEPATITIS B USING HBSAG THRESHOLDS: A META-ANALYSIS AND META-REGRESSION.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recommendations for stopping nucleoside analogue(NA) therapy in HBeAg-negative Chronic Hepatitis B(CHB) are unclear. End-of-treatment quantitative HBsAg(EOTqHBsAg) thresholds<100IU/ml or <1000IU/ml have been proposed as stopping criterion. We assessed this by meta-analysis and meta-regression. DESIGN: We searched PubMed, EMBASE and conference abstracts for studies of HBeAg-negative CHB NA discontinuation. Extracted studies were analysed for risk-of-bias, pooled risk of HBsAg loss, virological(VR) and biochemical relapse(BR). Significant heterogeneity(I2) was addressed by subgroup analysis and random-effects meta-regression with known important covariables, including EOTqHBsAg thresholds, ethnicity, duration of therapy and followup. RESULTS: We found 24 papers(3732 subjects), 16 had low and 8 had moderate risk of bias. The pooled risks of HBsAg loss, VR and BR for stopping therapy at EOTqHBsAg<100IU/ml were 41.8%, 33.4% and 17.3%, versus 4.6%, 72.1% and 34.6% respectively for EOTqHBsAg≥100IU/ml. The pooled risks of HBsAg loss, VR and BR for stopping therapy at EOTqHBsAg<1000IU/ml were 22.0%, 52.7% and 15.9%, versus 3.4%, 63.8% and 26.4% respectively for EOTqHBsAg≥1000IU/ml. Multivariable analysis for HBsAg loss showed ethnicity, followup duration and EOTqHBsAg<100≥IU/ml explained 85% of the variance in heterogeneity; Asians with EOTqHBsAg<100IU/ml had 28.2%, while non-Asians with EOTqHBsAg<1000IU/ml had 38.4% HBsAg loss. Multivariable analysis showed EOTqHBsAg<100≥IU/ml and other covariables only explained 43% and 63% of the variance in heterogeneity for VR and BR respectively, suggesting that other factors are also important for relapse. CONCLUSIONS: While EOTqHBsAg thresholds, ethnicity and followup duration strongly predict HBsAg loss, this is not true for VR and BR, hence stopping NA therapy should be considered cautiously.