Threshold dynamics of a switching diffusion SIR model with logistic growth and healthcare resources.
Math Biosci Eng
; 21(4): 5881-5899, 2024 May 14.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38872563
ABSTRACT
In this article, we have constructed a stochastic SIR model with healthcare resources and logistic growth, aiming to explore the effect of random environment and healthcare resources on disease transmission dynamics. We have showed that under mild extra conditions, there exists a critical parameter, i.e., the basic reproduction number $ R_0/ $, which completely determines the dynamics of disease when $ R_0/ < 1 $, the disease is eradicated; while when $ R_0/ > 1 $, the disease is persistent. To validate our theoretical findings, we conducted some numerical simulations using actual parameter values of COVID-19. Both our theoretical and simulation results indicated that (1) the white noise can significantly affect the dynamics of a disease, and importantly, it can shift the stability of the disease-free equilibrium; (2) infectious disease resurgence may be caused by random switching of the environment; and (3) it is vital to maintain adequate healthcare resources to control the spread of disease.
Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Computer Simulation
/
Stochastic Processes
/
Basic Reproduction Number
/
Pandemics
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Health Resources
Limits:
Humans
Language:
En
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2024
Document type:
Article
Affiliation country:
China